I'll say it. For the bitcoin has built in link between the price and the downward pressure on the price.
Currently, ($115) miners create around $400.000 daily in new bitcoin, and when the ASIC sellers get their production in order, a large percentage of that money will be sold on the exchanges every day. This means that you would need $200k to $300k every day, just to prop up the bitcoin price.
That's about double what Bitpay, the largest processor does each day.
So, for each $1 in Bitpay volume (not profit), you need $2 to $3 in "sucker" money. Sure, the price will come down.
Bitcoin players are mostly middle class IT people, they don't have an urgent need to cash out Suppose that most people have a motivation to cash out after 100-1000x price appreciation (a historical scale for 2011 price bubble), before that, there won't be any major sell off If more and more new adopters enter the game, and each of them waiting for a 1000x price appreciation, there will never be a crash unless the available USD is not enough FED is going to tighten sooner or later, that will generate some downward pressure due to reduced USD supply, but that's still 1-2 years away Like NGZhang said, valuation is about trust. Currently bitcoin has not reached a deserved value because people are still doubt about it, but more and more people are starting to lose their trust of fiat money, sooner or later they will realize that it is better to trust mathematics and networks instead of a bunch of politicians and bankers |
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Current technology shift is like when people switch from CPU to GPU, BFL play a very big role here, they are going to distribute ASIC devices to many different kind of users. If I get it right, they have some 30000 order or so, that should give enough people access to ASIC mining devices, and it's typically cheaper than GPU mining devices
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[–]throwaway-69857457 63 points 4 hours ago*
this is going to become bigger than Jesus
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This is like a black hole, suck in everything valueable. If anyone ever sold, they will seldom have a chance to buy it back at the same or lower price, due to extremely demand and supply imbalance
This is the only thing that have a clearly defined fixed supply on the planet, and it is reachable for everyone in matter of seconds, very dangerous
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What long term projections?
I have yet to see one that is not wishful thinking, or a totally unrealistic "There is X total of something, lets divide that by 21,000,000 to see what we get."
And the mining incentives are built in into the system itself, and there is no need for random guesses. Somebody calculated 2 years ago, that if the price goes to $20.000 you would need something like 60 power plants just for the energy for miners.
I agree with your view of daily energy cost. It is a good way to estimate a worst case scenario where every one is having the same mining technology and just break even on energy cost If each bitcoin worth $20,000, that is $72,000,000 per day, at $0.2/kwh, that is 360,000Mwh per day, about 15,000 Mw output, that is 3 big nuclear power plant Those with access to the technology would always increase the capacity until it is no longer profitable to do so. The cost of mining per BTC will always be close to one BTC.
Why should they do that when no one is competing with them? Suppose the rest of the network is 6TH now, I could mine with 6TH with a daily profit of 1800 coins and a power consumption of 200 coins; or I could mine with 60TH, 3273 coins, but 10 times the power consumption of 2000 coins. Is there any motivation for the later? Well you need a chart to find out the optimum hashing power, but it is definitely not higher the better |
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if someone wanted to spend the money the ModMiner Quad could easily mine litecoins , due to the collapse of BTCFPGA I am not in a position to follow through with this but we have a theoretically working design where every FPGA card has a SODIMM slot on the back of it where you can pop in cheap laptop memory up to 8gb per card for a total of 32 gb of memory per FPGA miner, it would be ddr2 memory and operate at a speed of 3gbps If anyone is serious about funding this project in any way send me an email to thomas@thomasvanriper.comdont worry this scammer tag is almost gone, for those who dont know we failed on our ASIC project and it has taken awhile to pay everyone back, the torches and pitch forks came out and I was given a scammer tag despite the numerous contributions I have made to this community and cyrptocoins in general. I should be a hero/VIP member again in about 2 weeks, when all the refunds for the failed project are completed. With that being said any serious investor should contact me and we can talk to the design firm in california directly - any serious investor could send the money directly to them, at this point I do not want to handle anyone's funds personally until I am in good standing on the forum again. they are a very long standing, reputable and well known design firm, and if you do anything with electronics in California its likely you already know them. The down payment on the project is 18k and its expected to cost around 40k to bring to working prototype, this includes them writing the firmware so the microcontroller and FPGA can access the memory. Getting this miner made compatible with bfg/cg miner would be easy enough from my programmer friends at the above mentioned projects. But like I said in my current situation I would not want to handle anyone's money directly but if someone is seriously interested in making an FPGA Litecoin miner - we already have the design modifications quoted and ready to go. Depending on how many units you would want to produce they would cost around $400-$600 each to produce. I already have a very good relationship with an assembly house that has produced hundreds of ModMiner Quads (patent pending) for me and this is a simple modification, I can also obtain FPGA chips at the absolute lowest rate/ So if anyone is seriously interested in commissioning something like this to be made let me know and I will plug you into the right people that can make it happen for you. I would only ask for a small percentage of sales which would go directly to paying my dwindling list of creditors. if anyone is not familar with the ModMiner Quad you can check it out at http://btcfpga.comit mines bitcoins at 840 mh/s and uses 40 watts - I have no idea how fast or efficient it would mine litecoins with the added memory modules. -Tom I'm supporting you Tom, and could you explain a bit how come your ASIC project failed? Isn't it more attractive to make ASIC based ltcminers instead of expensive FPGAs? ASIC is the final stage, from there you only need to worry about the energy consumption and semiconductor making process. Or at least structured ASIC |
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Nr.1 - Invest fiat, get BTC
Nr.2 - Invest fiat, get fiat
Nr.3 - Invest BTC, get BTC
Nr.4 - Invest BTC, get fiat
Of these 4 moves, Nr.1 is the most preferred, Nr.3 is exchange rate independant, Nr.4 is the worst option
I heard about 75000 chips from BFL, so that is 600Th, if all that power can reach market in 6 months and push the total network hash rate to 1000TH, an Avalon still can make 66/1,000,000*3600=0.24 bitcoin per day
And so far ASIC miner only deployed 6TH
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How typical, there poor guys all talk at the same time, because they have to exponentially increase efficiency (together with their talking speed) to grow the economy in a debt driven monetary system |
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Did anyone try to add little heatsinks to each of the chips and did it lead to better performance somehow? Maybe more stable overclocking?
Dr. Zhang recommend NOT to add any heatsinks on these chips and saying that will reduce the surface airflow for PCB board I see the point in this but i wonder if you would put it on following the airflow and not blocking it if the effect wouldnt be the opposite. The air could flow free but has more time to take on the hot temperatures. I asked this already but didnt get an answer... how is the capability of an avalon for being overclocked? I only read someone experiencing a wall at 300(something) but no info if this is a wall by design or if it could be fixed with better cooling. For example, if one would try, watercooling the single chips. And is it somehow possible to change clockrates, volts and so on? Only theoretical for the moment because i dont have an avalon yet. But i mean... only 10% more hashingpower would have a big impact. And such a number is easily achievable with normal GPUs too. So im wondering if something is possible there. Of course one would have to be ready to lose the miner when playing with such things. My past experience from GPU mining tell me: Do not overclock too much, the long term stability of the mining rig is far more important than a small gain in hashing performance, especially if you want one rig to run for a long time (Now we see that BFL is also power hungry, so avalon would at least be around for a year or two) I had a pair of 5970 overclocked quite high (just 20Mhz below the crash point), undervolted, installed custom cooling device and the best thermal compound I can find (liquid metal), although the GPU temp never goes above 55 degree, all 4 GPUs on both card still died one after another in 1 year. I guess some of the components on the board are just not designed to endure that kind of added load for a sustained long period. For a gaming rig that run once a while it is fine, but for a machine running 24x7 like a server, the stability is the highest priority I'm considering to put better thermal compound on avalon when summer arrives, but that is a lot of work, when I do it I will post some photos of the other side of the PCB By the way, my avalon running firmware 0225 shows nice stability, cgminer has been running uninterrupted for days, really a robust and solid product |
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I did a very conservative valuation months ago:
Suppose that there are 2 billion internet users and 1/10 of them can handle bitcoin technically, that is 200m users. Suppose each of them will put a small fraction of their retirement saving into bitcoin, which averages 1000 USD, then each coin will worth 10K. Raise that percentage, 100K is not impossible
Since the coins people can get from exchange is only a small fraction of all the existing coins, 1 million USD per coin is also possible
And this is only one of the area of potential usage based on existing human society, what about those unknown opportunities happening in the future?
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I'm interested in a BTC based investment return statistic for different mining devices
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The most interesting thing here is the human behavior, almost the same for every such kind of fast-rising-price asset
If you compare with housing bubble, it did not have any single point of failure either, but it eventually busted because of added supply and shrinking demand due to higher debt
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I don't have any bet, but seems due to the vague terms of the bet itself, neither side can claim to be a clear winner. The delivery itself is a big progress anyway
It seems the little single has stopped hashing since a while ago, too much heat?
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Judging from those small heat sinks added above and below the PCB board, they are pushing it too much. The board is not designed for this kind of power load, many small conponents get overheated and require additional cooling. They need to re-design the board
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25GH for a mini single which draws 179W, almost the same power consumption as avalon, but I heard there is a wafer by wafer difference in chip's power consumption, could be lower than that number, but 120W at least. So 240W for a full single running at 60GH, with that amount of heat, open rig is the only choice  So indeed that is a shipped product, everyone have to run it like that, and there is a turbo blow fan on the left side of the heatsink, not in the photo |
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Now it is my basic background music |
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Congratulations! Now Josh finally delivered before 1st April and do not need a seppuku Although it is still hosted at BFL, but since now their energy consumption is high, some people would consider having their singles hosted at BFL anyway (they provide this service), so this is actually a delivery IMO |
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Did anyone try to add little heatsinks to each of the chips and did it lead to better performance somehow? Maybe more stable overclocking?
Dr. Zhang recommend NOT to add any heatsinks on these chips and saying that will reduce the surface airflow for PCB board hi,
here are some info and advise.
about the plastic sheets: please remove them BEFORE mining. we design the case as a part of heatsink, so remove the plastic sheets may help. no need for remove them clean and tidy.
about FAN change: DO NOT change the fans to a low speed model. will cause over heat. DO NOT install extra fans at the rear "fan socket". will cause PSU over heat and nearly useless for module cooling.
about install extra heat-sinks on each avalon chip: please do not do that. there is a air gap between the die and package top, install a heatsink on chip is useless. and will cause overheating. because the top PCB copper act as a heatsink too. do not cover them.
about water cooling: yes, do it.
I'm interested in opening one of the module's heatsink and have a look at the contacts, but since there are so many small units, it is not as easy as opening a GPU heatsink, I might wait until some time later when outdoor temp rised above 15c. Currently outdoor temp is -5c, I only need to worry about snowflakes  |
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Why should I pay the electricity with mined bitcoin? I can use fiat to pay the electricity and save the coins, if I believe bitcoin price will rise in long term due to scarcity Imagine that last year my electricity cost is 2000 USD, and I mined 200 coins, I paid electricity using USD. Now I only need to sell 22 bitcoin to pay back that amount of dollar. If I paid using bitcoin as you suggested, I would have paid 100-150 bitcoins for my electricity cost  True, you can do that. But that case is the same as if you actually took your USD, and bought bitcoins at the exchange, instead of mining them. (And somebody else mined them). I'm talking about the things that create imbalances on the exchange. In your case, the exchange did not see the increased supply of bitcoins, but the cost of mining was still there, you paid it with your USD. If a LONG TERM projection always indicate a rise in the exchange price due to limited supply, there will be less and less people sell bitcoin to cover their energy cost, and that trend itself will lift the bitcoin price as a result, can go on for decades Another thing, your formula is based on that most of the people could always get their hands on the latest mining technology, thus the mining competetion will always be hard. But I foresee a future that only a handful IC companies have the access to the latest engergy efficient mining technology and many normal people with ASIC miners just can not cover their electricity cost, just like what happened after 10 years of california gold rush This also partly answered OP's question, if the mining technology becomes more and more hidden and centralized, the actual energy cost will be less and less |
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Unsold home 3.8 million  |
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