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4501  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 01, 2014, 07:15:33 PM
If BTC price heads south from 500, it means that the adoption has turned negative.

So not only all the initiatives that have been built this year with the funds generated by 2013 rallies, and the VC money, and the Wall Street initiatives, will turn out to be worth nothing, but also the internal growth in userbase that has averaged 0.6% per day since the start of 2010, will not only revert to zero, but also turn negative, with people who have used Bitcoin, ceasing the use and turning back to PayPal, en masse.

Sure. Believing in unicorns never made me rich in the first place.
4502  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency on: August 01, 2014, 07:08:20 PM
Regarding accessibility, I'm actually working on a slick deterministic seed based web-wallet that could perhaps be integrated into monerochain.info if there's interest. My intention is to drastically lower the barrier of entry to using Monero without depending on the core devs polishing the client.

I don't like talking about work this early on, but I want people to know there are complimentary projects taking place outside the official github repo.

I know that Easywallet-type of wallets are to be avoided, but for rapid adoption, they have played a part in BTC and could do that also with XMR.
4503  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: August 01, 2014, 07:02:30 PM
Monero was released with an intentionally crippled hash function. Whether the Monero devs realized it or not, the crippled hash was included to give someone an unfair advantage.

Please quantify this advantage in terms of % of the eventual coin supply of 18.4 million.

Also, do you have grounds to believe that it was both intentional, and the devs or whoever did it intentionally, are getting personal gain such as a kickback? Quantify also this, and produce the evidence.
4504  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: August 01, 2014, 06:42:36 PM
Here is the Bitstamp price chart at 3-day resolution. I drew the price resistance line at $681. The rightmost candle currently has the form of a "hammer" which often marks a trend reversal. We could be moving up from here into the $600's this month. On the other hand a hammer can also indicate the midpoint of a trend - but there is an abundance of good news and no bad news so I expect sentiment to not get worse.

The expected July rally did not occur. I am wondering to what extent 2014 price action will resemble 2012 price action as both these periods followed a year of dramatic rallies.

The all-time price trendline slope hit its high of 0.003868 in 9/2011. Then it came down to 0.003127 for 2013/1. Ever since it has been in the range of 0.003012-0.003127, a remarkably tight range. It is interesting to see, when we start to rise, since at the current price of -0.5 relative to the trend, the slope is starting to decline rapidly. Whether we manage to get back to 0.003, whether the exponential trend continues with a markedly lower slope, or whether the trend (and Bitcoin) is broken, remains to be seen.

I am leaning towards the first scenario nevertheless. The developments are such that it is not hard to imagine $100-$1,000 billion market cap in the near future.
4505  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: August 01, 2014, 06:29:07 PM
What is your definition of fair launch?  

1. No premine, instamine or ninjamine.
2. Exchange as soon as possible.
3. Marketing as soon as possible.

For Monero:

1. The current devteam did not actually launch the coin, but took it over soon after launch. The devteam combined has less than 0.5% of the eventual number of coins, and has bought/mined all their coins fairly in a competitive environment, in addition to working for free and paying most of the development costs out of their pocket (a minority of the costs have been covered by community donations).

2. Monero started OTC trading before 0.5% of the coins were mined, and was listed when 3.2% were mined. The volume in the most voluminous channel alone (OTC thread, then CryptoNote exchange, then Poloniex), during the coin's history, is 4460k, which is 3.7 times higher than the average number of coins existing during the same period. Thus, on average, every monero changes hands in less than a month.

3. There has been marketing from early on, so that the difficulty and the price have been high since almost the beginning (only 2.4% of the trades ever, have been executed at a price 1/4 or less than the current price). I heard about the coin promptly after launch, and I don't usually seek information on altcoins, actually never before (or after) bought one. Withholding information (factual and hype), and then releasing it, is conducive to pump & dump, but none of that has happened with Monero.

When there is no comparison. You just know it.
4506  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: August 01, 2014, 05:45:58 PM
Does anyone actually maintain an alt-coin index that provides some detail content on the top 20 alt coins. Things like:

developer strength - not just number of posts but strength of the individuals and past accomplishments, commitment level
technology factors - not just a guess but some details
momentum indicators - volume, coins mined per day, hash rate, hashrate moving averages, new media links per week/month
Scam indicator - premine, scammy founders, copied technology, pump and dump precedent
Mining method and future

Just too much information and too distributed, and for the average crytpo speculator it seems impossible to do anything but guess right now.


For me this compilation even not comprehensive on everything mentioned subject still was very useful to understand at least something:
http://www.devtome.com/doku.php?id=a_massive_investigation_of_instamines_and_fastmines_for_the_top_alt_coins

That's a good one.

My short version:

- BTC is a good coin. Hold it.

- Of the cryptonote coins, only one has realistic chance of winning - the first fair launch: XMR. Buy it.

- Of the 2.0 "coins". They are actually startup stocks. Do your DD. I haven't bought any, for the lack of reason to buy.
4507  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: August 01, 2014, 05:32:50 PM
Oh yes, and the starting pay is bad but the range goes up to 4000€/month.

How much would it take and based on what would one ascend to 4000€a month?

Given the right attitude and skillset, it can be achieved as soon as I have reasonable evidence that the attitude and skillset are indeed right. In other words, 3-6 months.

Quote
Unfortunately for reasons outside my control like having a family and being half autist I can't do half of these. Also, I have diagnosed "oppositional defiant disorder" so it's difficult for me to take orders without questioning every single bit of said order. Also, 400€ monthly seems too low unless standard of living in estonia is really low?

Estonian minimum wage is 284 €/month after tax. With this money, some do provide for their family. Things cost 25%-75% of what they do in the neighboring Finland.

ODD is bullshit that is used to control people. Unless, of course, you yourself realize that it is a problem for you. In this case, I kindly ask you to wise up and be a man. Life doesn't always go your way, and if you work for somebody else, it's better to obey orders.

People seek employment contracts that provide mutually maximum benefit. If you don't think that the mere fact of living in the Bitcoin castle is invaluable for you and you should actually be the one paying (like the hotel guests do), then this is probably not in the interests of either of us.

Also, please refrain from writing posts in my threads just for the reason of increasing postcount.
4508  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: August 01, 2014, 02:20:18 PM
Does anyone actually maintain an alt-coin index that provides some detail content on the top 20 alt coins. Things like:

developer strength - not just number of posts but strength of the individuals and past accomplishments, commitment level
technology factors - not just a guess but some details
momentum indicators - volume, coins mined per day, hash rate, hashrate moving averages, new media links per week/month
Scam indicator - premine, scammy founders, copied technology, pump and dump precedent
Mining method and future

Just too much information and too distributed, and for the average crytpo speculator it seems impossible to do anything but guess right now.


+1.

If you would do this (and do it good), in 3 months you would be as famous as me!
4509  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 01, 2014, 02:10:08 PM
A real capitulation with a large volume in the 500-530 range would be most welcome.

It's been so long time since the last capitulation that a new one is needed.
4510  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency on: August 01, 2014, 02:00:59 PM
4511  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: -> Monero Community Hall of Fame <- on: August 01, 2014, 01:34:25 PM
Do you want to pledge donations with goal of finishing this?
I will pledge 50 XMR myself.

I can't evaluate this matter myself, but just sent 300 XMR to the general dev address and hereby strongly urge the devs to channel 50 XMR towards this purpose if they deem it is a priority.
4512  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency on: August 01, 2014, 01:23:55 PM
Donations have been slow

I set up some guidelines in the donation thread, one is the accountability and transparency in the use of donations:
- who decides how money is spent
- who spends it
- how is it accounted for and monitored.

I kindly ask the devteam to write a few lines about this, so I feel much better to donate and promote others to do so.

EDIT: I don't have any distrust towards Monero devs, but there's a certain Forum that calls me Donator for the reason that I donated 10 BTC to them and none of it has been used for anything useful, as far as I know.

Sure: we've published the view key for the donation wallet precisely so there can be transparency (although, admittedly, the tooling does not exist as yet for anyone to peek in). The core team all decide together when money has to be spent.

A typical example could be where a team member wants to spend 20 hours working on Monero in a week. This necessitates them not spending those 20 hours working on their "normal" stuff that makes sure they can pay their bills at the end of the month. In this event, they can indicate the minimum rate necessary for them to recoup this lost income, and it is paid out of the dev donations.

Similarly, the cost of bandwidth used to serve blockchain downloads is heavy. We are moving those to infrastructure on unmetered ports, but that infrastructure also carries a cost.

Of course, since the donations have been slow, 90% of this is typically paid by those of us in the core team that have funds on-hand, in the hopes of recouping them at some point in the future.

Every expenditure is noted. We will likely make this public in some form in the future, but that will be subsequent to us receiving legal and financial advice as to the tax and privacy implications in doing so.

Accepted. 300 XMR sent.
4513  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: August 01, 2014, 11:40:13 AM
hmmm, interesting!
looking for (automation) industrial engineers?

Looking for people who can obey orders, smile, clean rooms, serve tables, cook, know wines, stand long hours in scorching sun, nitpick about petty amounts, do gardening, smile, drive cars, furnish rooms, clean toilets, empty trashbins, greet guests, empty ashtrays, water lawns, sell wines, do the laundry, smile, answer repetitious questions, clean floors, obey orders and smile.

Oh yes, and the starting pay is bad but the range goes up to 4000€/month.

As we are an equal opportunity employer, being an industrial engineer is not a disqualifier.

You ask for
people who can obey orders - 5/5
smile - 4/5
clean rooms   - 5/5
serve tables  - 4/5
cook  - 2/5 basic cooking ... mostly breakfast and some pastas
know wines  - I don't know wines
stand long hours in scorching sun - 5/5
nitpick about petty amounts - 4/5
do gardening - 4/5
smile - 4/5
drive cars - 5/5
furnish rooms - don't know exactly what you mean with this ... but if you want to let me decorate a room I can do that
clean toilets - 5/5
empty trash-bins - 5/5
greet guests - 5/5
empty ashtrays - 5/5
water lawns - 5/5
sell wines - I could sell them but I don't know all the details ... if the buyer knows what he wants i can sell him wine ... but I don't know what to recommend him
do the laundry - I'm not good at doing laundry ... one time I tried it and made my pants unwearable! But if someone can teach me I can learn!
smile - 4/5
answer repetitious questions - 5/5
clean floors - 5/5
obey orders and smile - 5/5

what I can offer extra ....
I'm a vodka passionate ... mostly for premium vodka
Organize parties for our guests
Offer VIP service to our guests (I've been in the best clubs in the world and I learned what VIP is about)
I can fix computers and stuff .... but I think everyone here knows that so I don't really consider this as a skill

Will come back with other skills if I remember them


P.S. I'm a morning person, I love to get up early!

Okay. Your work starts Thursday, next week. We can pay the taxi from Tallinn! Smiley If that is too early, any later day is also possible.
4514  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency on: August 01, 2014, 10:21:29 AM
I think monero devs are doing quite good work with communication. The problem is the altcoin world, where 48 hours of no movement (meaning "rangebound +/- 10%") means that the coin is pronounced dead.

Of course communication can always be done better, like I also exhorted upthread, concernign the usage of donations.
4515  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency on: August 01, 2014, 09:18:28 AM
Donations have been slow

I set up some guidelines in the donation thread, one is the accountability and transparency in the use of donations:
- who decides how money is spent
- who spends it
- how is it accounted for and monitored.

I kindly ask the devteam to write a few lines about this, so I feel much better to donate and promote others to do so.

EDIT: I don't have any distrust towards Monero devs, but there's a certain Forum that calls me Donator for the reason that I donated 10 BTC to them and none of it has been used for anything useful, as far as I know.
4516  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: -> Monero Community Hall of Fame <- on: August 01, 2014, 09:02:10 AM
I just completed an additional donation of 305.60 XMR for upgrade to 5th dan.

F--k!! Sad Because of my advance warning I lost forever the 1st spot in 5th dan (Rhodium) to you!!  Angry

My only hope is to get 2 crates of Diamonds before smooth and other biggies do...


Thank you for the donation and congratulations for the devs Smiley
4517  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: August 01, 2014, 08:59:00 AM
maybe the most elegant solution is the simplest one: which amount of btc inflow per day at current prices is needed to keep the price stable, that is probably also the reason why I asked for that in the xcn thread  Grin

I am also in favor of the daily inflation method. This puts XMR at 2.5% of BTC, which is huge.
4518  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Monero (XMR) Speculation thread on: July 31, 2014, 06:23:37 PM
@rpietila and others, what do you consider as a buy-zone for monero? Was thinking about placing some orders in the 0.004-0.0043 range. There is pretty much support at 0.004 and 0.0039, also fibonacci retracement levels are at 0.00406 and 0.00447 (This is based on the last runup from 0.023 to  0.058).

The 61.8% level is also on 0.00365, that is a possibility also.

All-time volume weighted average price is 0.00426.

All things considered, if you want to buy it, just do it at any price below 0.0045. The chances of breaking 0.004 are so slim that it is not worth the 10% gain achievable.

This advice is valid if your intention is to hold. I don't give daytrading advice.
4519  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Monero Economy on: July 31, 2014, 05:45:12 PM
I don't know, but possibly the values would be like:

Adoption = 100,000
Average = 2,300.

4520  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Monero (XMR) Speculation thread on: July 31, 2014, 05:42:23 PM
It should not bother anyone that it is possible to buy and sell a coin using various methods. I was left wondering, what he might think of being the "clear" way then, to force on everyone... Roll Eyes
I'm sure that it doesn't bother anyone... further more I'm pretty sure that this will show people those various methods which you were talking about. But part of me is agree with titan86 just because I'm afraid of number different topics! They make me feel uncomfortable because a lot of new information which is actually looks like untrusted information.

Maybe I'm wrong but the fact is people don't like a lot of info if the main idea must looks simple.

What bothers me makes me sure that Monero is on the right track is the emergence of shill accounts like you. Check the post history. I could have created the one-liner "content" of this user in 3 minutes, everything else is FUD concerning Monero.

I am sure your presence here does not serve any further purpose.


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