whoa, that's a nice fat green candle off the bottom! something like an 8% move on this one 4-h candle.  i'm not convinced yet that a true reversal has happened; this could just be a short squeeze. but it's certainly time to watch the charts closely and see if bulls are really winning the battle for $6k. at least we saw sentiment get really bad, with most people expecting $3k-$5k or worse. that's a good sign that it was a real bottom. |
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This is obviously good news. That Kobayashi bastard was dumping coins every X time and creating these big red candles. It was ridiculous enough to do it on some exchange (I think Kraken) instead of OTC as they should. huh? i think that was misinformation. bitcoiners love a conspiracy theory to explain drops in price.  he confirmed that he wasn't dumping directly on exchanges: According to the trustee, he consulted “cryptocurrency experts” during the BCH and BTC sales, and he did not use the traditional method of using a digital asset exchange. Further Kobayashi says analyzing the movement of the public addresses is useless, as the assumption that the assets were sold at those exact times is “incorrect.”
“Following consultation with cryptocurrency experts, I sold BTC and BCH, not by an ordinary sale through the BTC/BCH exchange, but in a manner that would avoid affecting the market price, while ensuring the security of the transaction to the extent possible,” Kobayashi details. IMO, it wouldn't make sense for the courts to use kraken (an unlicensed offshore exchange) when there are numerous licensed japanese exchanges. Anyway, until every last creditor has recovered their BTC I will not consider it a victory, but it's definitely better than the constant FUD of Kobayashi dumping another bunch of BTC.
if we were in a bull market, this could have been a bullish catalyst because of the perceived supply implications. but because this is a bear market, bullish news doesn't matter. |
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no new analysis, though? i suppose he is just generally bearish for the mid-term. post-euphoria and all....  i miss his charts. Tethered coins will mushroom fall winter 2018 when fortune 500 comes online. Bitcoin is obsolete comparable to patented systems of generation 5 coins and that emerging industry which will carry crypto above $2tn.
"generation 5 coins"---ooooh, sounds fancy! remind me, what coins were generations 3 and 4? what's so great about this new "patented" technology? |
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the gold market is worth $7 trillion. the stock market is worth $30 trillion. what we're talking about is a drop in the bucket. the money doesn't need to be printed out of nowhere; it will come from other asset markets.
Sweet. This is what I was looking for. I don't think too much money would be divesting from the stock market to invest into Bitcoin though. Bitcoin is more like a commodity, apples to oranges, would you agree? With that being said though, even if a small percentage, say .1% of money from stocks move into Bitcoin that would be quite significant. As far as gold, I can definitely see a lot of money shifting from gold to Bitcoin. it's simple diversification hedging strategy. if you're storing value/hedging risk in stocks or commodities (or anything else at all), it's perfectly reasonable to re-allocate a small percentage into crypto as it becomes a traditionally accepted asset class. the "apples to oranges" bit doesn't matter if the purpose of the investment is value storage. so much of the world's "value" is only held where it is because it has to go somewhere. |
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If Bitcoin hits a $50k price point then the market cap would be around $875 Billion. I think this is doable, as this would put it within range of Apples market cap. what's apple's market cap have to do with anything? those figures sure make apple seem incredibly inflated (or bitcoin incredibly undervalued), don't you think? Now, we can assume every miner won't sell every coin and there will be some hoarding taking place. With that being said, let's assume every miner will only sell enough to cover the cost of production. We have no clue what cost of production will be in the future, so lets say its 50% of the Bitcoins price. Even then this would still work out to $16.5 Billion yearly. Also, even after the block halving this would be $8 Billion per year. Is this something that is even possible? These numbers are very large, it doesn't seem too feasible to me. I remember people arguing this when Bitcoins block reward used to be 25, but the $ amount back then was really small. $Billions of dollars is a lot of money.
What do you guys think? Is my thought process flawed? Is it possible Bitcoin could sustain a price like this?
the gold market is worth $7 trillion. the stock market is worth $30 trillion. what we're talking about is a drop in the bucket. the money doesn't need to be printed out of nowhere; it will come from other asset markets. |
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Bitcoin Price Outperformed Crypto Hedge Fund Pantera Capital Last Month.
Sometimes it doesn’t pay to diversify — just ask cryptocurrency hedge fund Pantera Capital, whose fund underperformed the bitcoin price last month.
to be honest, that doesn't say much. hedge funds are generally much "bigger picture" than a one-month snapshot. pantera also outperformed bitcoin so far in 2018, which is more notable. If I were to trade cryptocurrencies for a living, I'd invest in so-called "promising" altcoins only for short term and would close all positions after certain amount of time, regardless of the price, because in my mind any new alt is just a pump and dump / ICO scam, and in the long run there will be no fundamentals to support the price - promises of revolution, disruption and so on only can get the price so far, sooner or later everyone realizes that no real progress is being made.
altcoins are just for banging out doubles, 10x's and maybe the occasional 100x and taking profit in bitcoin. there might be some alts with long term staying power, but buying and holding is a real crapshoot. i just accumulate as we head into (or during) alt season, and sell into pumps. and then i exit alts entirely once BTC takes over all the hype or bear market sets in. rinse, repeat..... |
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dmwardjr: thanks for your continued work here. i've been checking your thread regularly.
i've got a question regarding your expectation that we'll drop below $5920.72 on stamp within the current bearish channel. what signals would you look for to confirm that we won't be going below that level? (ie that the bottom is in)
Hi Figment, Thanks for following and joining the conversation. Unfortunately, the indicators will not tell us what price it will go to.  Which is why we will have to pay close attention to the following time frames (TF's) [3h, 6h, 12h, 18h and 24h] to TRY to get an idea when the bottom is in the bag and a reversal appears to be obvious according to the indicators. ah, that's what i'm getting at. i'm always looking for ways to confirm major swing highs and lows. this is definitely not the kind of momentum (or lack thereof) i expected from a triangle consolidation breakdown, so i'm thinking maybe something else is happening. Figment, are you a Trading View member?
i am, though i just chart there. i don't really share ideas or participate in the chat. |
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i put full trust on technical analysis
This is a bad mistake. Technical analysis do not work in a market without any regulation or logic. Currently, BTC is a purely speculative market. People are trying to find a price which represents bitcoins value. i think that's precisely why TA works so well on bitcoin: it's a highly speculative and emotional market. it doesn't have the kind of macroeconomic fundamentals you should understand to successfully trade commodities and forex. it's straight up supply and demand. TA doesn't depend on regulation, and i think there is much logic to the BTC market. it's about supply and demand: knowing whether it's bears or bulls who are primarily out of position, and trading accordingly. take today's breakout for example. we've been sideways for about 5 days, and just broke new highs. that tells me we're heading up now---all the bears entering shorts for the past several days are now in the red and want to close. |
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dmwardjr: thanks for your continued work here. i've been checking your thread regularly.
i've got a question regarding your expectation that we'll drop below $5920.72 on stamp within the current bearish channel. what signals would you look for to confirm that we won't be going below that level? (ie that the bottom is in)
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Does Casper protocol play a vital role on the security when it comes to POS?
for those depending on it for consensus/transaction validation, yes. but at this point, it's not clear whether casper extends to ethereum as a whole, or rather a hypothetical casper sidechain or casper consensus shard. the core devs may be rolling it out as a new system overlaying (rather than replacing) the core POW-based protocol. probably a smart move. they can minimize the shock of transitioning away from POW, and also quarantine problems if the casper rollout sees unexpected bugs. |
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I'd add November 8, 2017 - the day SegWit2x got officially cancelled. Nowadays no one talks about it, because it's dead, but one year ago it was a big thing and all social platforms were full of discussions and heated arguments. I thin this milestone was very important, because it demonstrated that Bitcoin community trusts developers and their technical reasoning more than some big companies that tried to use populism to get more control over Bitcoin.
agree, and come to think of it, there is no mention of XT or Classic, either. everyone has forgotten about them by now, but these were subjects of very heated debate 2-3 years back. this thread was legendary and really helped shape my philosophies about bitcoin and open source software: Bitcoin XT - Officially #REKT (also goes for BIP101 fraud) i'm glad to have been a part of it....  |
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They are moving because this government is so pro Bitcoin that it's not giving them any trouble, unlike Japan. IMO it's not that good for BTC since Binance might be involved in USDt manipulation, and this might coincide with them failing to get a trading license in Japan and having to move to Malta. could be, but then it seems that moving to malta kills two birds with one stone. USDT has always been used as a substitute for banking. now that they've secured banking, they might be able to drop USDT entirely. You decide if them running around from country to country instead of facing the problems and clearing things out once and for all is actually good for Crypto. It's good for Malta because it's a huge business that is coming there, but not for us, ordinary users.
i think CZ is acting more like a cowboy and waving his dick around, at least as much as he is running from japan. he understands binance's position as one of the largest exchanges in the world, something that japan actually wants. any business should be able to exit to a friendlier jurisdiction if compliance becomes too expensive or non-compliance becomes too risky. they aren't in this for charity. |
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Hi all,
the recent bloodbath pushed me to start investing in the crypto market. My current position is approx. 33% BTC/ETH/EOS. What would be your recommendation for a balanced crypto portfolio for the next 6-12 months?
Thanks!
i have a long term ETH position that i will continue holding for long term capital gains tax rates. but in general, i stay 100% BTC (for my crypto allocation) during bear markets. i like to wait until i see a nice accumulation base (on the weekly+ charts) in both BTC and across some alts before i start piling into alts again. with very few exceptions (like newly launched coin hype), alts will bleed harder than BTC in a bear market. not a good time to hold from an investment perspective. swing trading is a different thing, although i'm generally avoiding alts entirely right now. |
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I don't see many wanting to sell bitcoins for $ 6000. Price reduction is the same manipulation only with a minus sign. On each exchange we see a large number of offers for sale but we do not know how many of them are fictitious. The cryptocurrency market has no regulations and therefore speculators feel like a fish in the water.
It's almost safe to say that the majority of the sales in the last months were not retailers selling their coins, but very large holders and manipulators taking the price back to levels they think the market will be able to sustain itself without artificial buy support. i think that theory is missing an important piece. market makers like to sell into retail demand and buy into retail panic. that's how trading ranges are formed: with thick liquidity on both sides of the range. it's not really the "manipulators" who are pushing the market down. it's retail top buyers who are cutting losses and panicking because price ran into an order block and fell off a cliff. the other thing is, major liquidity providers sometimes get run over by the market. they expect a continued range then get overrun by demand. this is where trends (and bubbles) are born, where out-of-position market makers have to chase price and provide further fuel to the fire. |
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This talk is pure propaganda."It does not benefit you to listen to him"
to be fair, i remember back in 2014 how we used to make fun of draper. he was perpetually bullish and making outlandish forecasts in the middle of a brutal bear market. turns out, he was one of the few vocal visionaries who have been spot on with their analysis. in 2014, he predicted that BTC would surpass $10k by 2017. he was right then and his fundamental analysis hasn't changed. so i wouldn't ignore his next prediction either. |
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so we finally have some clarity on ETH! good news for the foundation and also for investors. i feel like the ICO has always been sort of a black cloud hanging over it, with everyone half-expecting the SEC to act against the foundation. here's a better source for the story: https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/14/bitcoin-and-ethereum-are-not-securities-but-some-cryptocurrencies-may-be-sec-official-says.htmlHinman specifically said that bitcoin is not a security because it is decentralized: there is no central party whose efforts are a key determining factor in the enterprise. In addition, ether is also not a security because the ethereum network is also decentralized.
Hinman did not address the securities status of other cryptocurrencies, notably ripple (XRP), which is the subject of a lawsuit alleging that it is a security, noting only that, "Over time, there may be other sufficiently decentralized networks and systems where regulating the tokens or coins that function on them as securities may not be required."
Regarding ICOs, Hinman also acknowledged that some digital assets could be structured more like a consumer item than a security, particularly if the asset is purchased for personal use and not intended as an investment. He seemed to imply that these types of offerings — an investment in a book club, or a golf club membership, for example — were likely not securities. |
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There are good news almost daily. But there is some rich circle that wants to see Bitcoin going down, so they can buy cheaper.
maybe, but i don't assume those conspiracy theories are true. the simple explanation is that the hype and momentum died. just like it did in 2014. once the market could no longer fuel new highs, a new feedback cycle developed: selling begot selling, new bagholders were created, and the bear market crushed all media sensationalizing about price. that scares off new investors and pushes weak hands to sell. this will probably continue until everyone has forgotten about bitcoin, or given up on it (like 2015). then it'll probably rocket to $1 mil or something. |
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good ideas here, xxxx123abcxxxx. i had been leaning towards your descending triangle, especially since the E wave (if the triangle were symmetrical) would have retraced quite low and was not well-developed. normally, i expect .618-705 or at least .5 for an E wave.
having said that, the stop run to $6100 has me scratching my head. the february-may correction is pretty irregular (contracting range) for a non-triangle corrective. also, the leg down in may doesn't look impulsive (as a higher degree C wave should).
what is your expectation here? are we in some kind of unpredictable complex corrective?
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I haven't really looked into the contracts that expired last month and the month before but I remember that the first CBOE contract that expired based on the Gemini price at 4PM was subject to manipulation.
I don't have 1M chart data but if you look at when that future contract expire you will see there was a huge volume spike and price barely moved. Suggesting that someone tried to manipulate the price that the futures would expire at. my understanding from the CBOE contract specs is that the settlement price is based on the daily auction price, not the spot exchange price. i think the only data we have is the final auction price and volume. I haven't checked the data for the contracts that expired after December but I am pretty sure it was no different. The reason why its easy to manipulate is because there is very thin liquidity in the markets at the moment.
This doesn't bode well at all for the ETF, and will provide a huge pitfall that BTC will have to overcome to get listed.
yeah it seems too easy to manipulate since liquidity is so low. i don't know how the auctions on gemini work exactly, but i imagine if volume is low that large market orders in front of settlement will push the benchmark one way or the other. it makes more sense to use a basket/index for this. |
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i think they just need to show a pattern of conduct to prove intent. no one's getting charged over posting and pulling an order one time. but if you post thick orders and the vast majority of your trading activity is just spoofing without trading, it's gonna look pretty bad, don't you think? some anti-spoofing cases from earlier this year: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr7681-18Is this a shot across the bows or will they try and track some people down? And since when did all this theoretically become against the law. i think it's a scare tactic to scare the market into line through self-regulation. but if i put my tin foil hat on, i could think of some more sinister things going on here. according to the above press release, the Commodity Exchange Act includes a prohibition against spoofing (not sure on the specifics). The stupidest thing of all is that they haven't subpoenaed Bitfinex which is where everyone else still follows even if it doesn't fall within the CBOE basket.
they definitely have jurisdiction over exchanges that are used to price regulated futures markets. not sure it extends any further than that. |
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