Yep but there is a distinction between commercial banks and investment banks.

While commercial banks may become obsolete, they can just switch themselves into investment banks, and continue their existence but with bitcoin.

As a broker or investment/liquidity provider in various bitcoin investment.


That is of course a decentralized investment platform doesnt come out, then the banks are really in big trouble.

It is but if you bet the right time the right amount, and if you stop, you can come out a winner. Sort of cheating the universe.

The idea can be philosophically analyzed too. If we suppose that the multiverse theory is correct then it may not have been invented in other universes, although the trend of evolution follows a median line, due to the variance and unlikely events not fitting together, in other universes we might not have a bitcoin at all.

Although I don't believe in the multiverse theory but rather in a cyclical universe theory, I could have been possible for bitcoin to not exist in the same time or same spot, but if the universe follows a median line of evolution, then its a necessity for bitcoin to exist eventually, its only the variance that will dictate when will that happen.

So the inventor actually doesn't even matter, because it is a evolutionary guarantee for bitcoin to come into existence, it's just a question of when, due to variance.

So let me give a few examples

HUGE VARIANCE:

Earth gets hit by a meteorite in january 1 2009 just before satoshi launching bitcoin and falls into pieces. Earth gets destroyed, so we need to wait 5 billion years before another Earth gets formed, and another 300 million before new humans get formed, and another 50,000 years before another human society gets formed, and another 2009 years before somebody else tries again with bitcoin. But eventually bitcoin gets invented.

BIG VARIANCE:

Humanity gets wiped out by a plague before january 3 2009, thus we need another 200-300 year before we rebuild civilization and start again with our electronic projects. In 200 years we get bitcoin.

MEDIUM VARIANCE:

Satoshi dies in a car crash in 2007 so he doesnt even start to work on bitcoin. Somebody else gets interested, but he is not as bright as satoshi, but he manages to invent bitcoin by 2020.

SMALL VARIANCE:

Satoshi dies in a car crash in 2009 january 2, he already publicized his idea, but he didnt started the network yet, so another guy picks it up, while it make take him a half year to set it up and familiarize itself with the project. Bitcoin is born in August 2009.


So you see, all of these outcomes would have been probable, but eventually bitcoin would have been born, so its not about the inventor but the invention

It's something like this, man I saw this scene and I laughted that I almost fell on the floor:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdAmYT3x480

This scene pretty much sums up the whole economy in 1 minute

I know that, i did that research too. It might be faster than that, and it will definitely be a good pension investment if your risks are adjusted accordingly.

I think a bigger rise of volatility will come after the real big adoption will start, not to mention the speculative mania that can start if price breaks above 500$.

It definitely needs 3-4 years after the adoption phase to stabilize to be considered a life-savings graded investment.

Yet given how fragile the pension funds are today, i would be more worried of bail-ins rather than bitcoin volatility.

Dont make a big deal of it, all of us did that, but its not waste, you learned how to use bitcoin, how to send, and you also grabbed a few satoshis, which in a few years might be worth really a lot of money.

This time its different, because it's not just the surface problems that is caused by this massive disallocation of resources, but the economy is also fundamentally distorted.

In an average depression, many jobs get lost, business go bankrupt, for the same fact that they are not belonging to that economy, so they have no place there to exist.

But now its over 50% of the GDP that is comprised of financial services/banking & corporate business, and not just the jobs that will be lost, but the capital.


1) If they put more concrete, a.k.a. print money and buy all bubbles up, then eventually the leaked inflation becomes so big that the real earnings of the populus will be detrimentally hurt. If the inflation increases more than your earnings, and drastically more, then eventually you will starve to death as you cannot even buy the food in the stores, despite the food supply being constant. And of course this hurts the economy even more, imagine if 99% of the GDP is got from banks, who will produce anything?

And each time they print money, the GDP gets distorted more, if the financial sector is 50% of the GDP and the bust sets in then consider a 49% GDP decrease depression, because about 49% out of 50% does not belong there. But the hyperinflation will probably wash away the rest too, so my guess is about 80-90% depression, and alot of unemployed people (+robotics caused unemployment). By the next decade we can easily see 50% unemployment of able bodied people.

2) If they dont print money then obviously speculators will pull out their money, and it will cause a bust spiral that will bust the entire economy, starting from the 1:1000 leveraged firms , down to the small vendor who has a little mortgage.

The amount of financial devastation pending will be big, and it will cause civil unrest probably.

Yea but thats inhouse transaction, its not on the blockchain. I guess my list wasnt in descending order, but just as an estimate so that people can see which industries are bitcoin used for.

Manipulators are the least thing to worry about. Price goes up and down, following the median line of valuation, with 2-3 standard deviation of variance.

The big problem bitcoin faces is an existential one, I`m more worried that the developers fuck up the code or implement a new protocol with cryptographic vulnerabilities. Yes the devs have IQ over 140 and are very good at what they do, but they are certainly egomaniacs, and above all humans, who can do errors.

So i`m more worried about a black swan error that can break the protocol, a sort of unseen bug or glitch that can be exploited very hardly.

Normally the interest rates now should be around 10-15%, to massively restructure the economy from a speculator/spender one, to a savings/producer one,

It might hurt and cause a bit of recession, but mixed with regulation elimination and tax decreases, it should work.



However the clock is ticking: http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/


It's impossible to increase the interest rates anymore due to the amount of debt that has been created by it. So to illlustrate:





The dam is under so big pressure, that if you stop pushing "water" into the dam's left side, then the water will just smash through and the hyperinflation will be so big that alot of catastrophes could happen in the meantime.

If you dont increase interest rates then the dam will eventually crack and hyperinflation will still come.

There is a 500 year financial pressure buildup we are talking about, and in our lifetimes the dam will break!

HYPERINFLATION IS INEVITABLE NOW, NO MATTER WHAT THE CENTRAL BANKS DO, THEY CAN ONLY STALL IT, BUT THEY CANT STOP IT!

Pardon me but isnt that graph having a low term interest rate due to the debt the world holds, and the money printing available.

Currency counterfeiting is an 5000 year business, from the Babylonian treasurer mixing silver coins with nickel, to the Roman coins being mixed with iron and led, to the modern banking scam of just pure toilet paper printing.

I see the interest rates have spiked in the 1100 when massive wars created huge inflation (soldiers paid with scam coins because taxes are never enough to pay the war costs), then its going low now.

REMEMBER THERE WERENT CENTRAL BANKS BEFORE 1664 AD.  , SO THE INTEREST RATES BEFORE THAT WERE GENUINE AND FREE MARKET BASED!

But not because the money printing stopped, but because it's more efficient than ever, and that the keynesian inflation doesnt leak into the economy, rather it gets soaked up by massive derivatives, stock,bond, estate, precious stones, and luxury items bubbles.

BECAUSE OF THAT CENTRAL BANKS CAN EASILY RIG THE INTEREST RATES, IN THEIR MONEY PRINTING SCAM'S FAVOUR.THEY JUST NEED TO BLOW AIR INTO THE BUBBLE, TO AVOID THE AVALANCHE OF INFLATION THAT IS CONTAINED THERE



Of course if this "dam" breaks, you will see hyperinflation, and I don't know but to clean up this shit, you will probably need 10,000% interest rates or bigger.






It's funny that you suddenly agree with me, last time I talked with you you made me look like an idiot, but with little evidence.

I don't think the nuclear winter is probable, as I told in earlier posts, these are the options on the table:

In my research I discovered, and this is not a secret, that bitcoin already has a big demand, and spending, its just that not that maninstream yet.

◘The biggest economic industry in bitcoin is the gambling one no doubt, all these casinos popping up and dice sites, they probably hold most of the bitcoin cashflow.

(Seeing satoshidice or primedice transactions of 500 BTC moving around all day)

◘Then there is speculation/investment/trading, which is smaller than gambling, but its close to it.

◘Next to gambling there are all sorts of digital goods mostly: gift cards, online goods, account access, whatever.


◘Then there are local spendings: coffe, pizza place, some beauty salons, gyms, restaurants, and even some smaller stores.


◘And then last but not least there are the service sectors: online subscriptions/memberships, escrow, financial services, get-paid-to, porn, etc.

Well thats a bit tricky, since you cant buy food and basic necessities with bitcoin yet, and it dont think that would be wise thing to do, yet.

Pensioners are poor, and they dont want to see -20% of their pension evaporating due to current btc volatility. Plus they cant buy basic stuff like food, water, medicine and clothes like pensioners do.


In the future that might be different, but for now we need adoption in the 15-40 year age groups, who purchase the most stuff. Then we can deal with the old guys later. (of course i`m not countring rich whales who invest there, but those guys dont have a pension lol)

Exactly the inventor is only the symptom, but its not the cause.

The demand is the cause for an invention, and eventually somebody will manifest itself as being it's inventor.


Would the lightbulb be invented if Edison would not be born? Of course it would, several people already tried to build it with little success. Edison was the first person who got it right. But if not him, then the other guys would have tried hard until they would have succeeded.

You just said it, see regulation doesnt help you jack shit to avoid scammers, yet some idiots are still pushing for it.

To avoid scammers you have to use your brain, common sense, due diligence, and a bit of research.


You just simply dont give 6000$ to strangers, with no solid business plan, shady background, or no contact info.


DISCLAIMER:  Fully regulated and insured banks with absolute contact info and total transparency will steal your money too eventually, just like this :
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=160292.0

Wtf are you talking about guys.

The USD had a +25% increase this year (it could decrease by that too), how is that a reasonable volatility, given that it has no intrinsic value, and its printed like a toilet paper.


Not to mention that they have a central bank that is "stabilizing" it, and all the 2-3 billion users who use it.


Yet bitcoin has a 10-15% volatility and everybody panicks, give me a break, if you want stability go into low risk assets, In my view bitcoin is still the safest currency out there.

But in general you dont want to keep all eggs in 1 basket, diversify, control risk, and the investments will be ok.

I see this ad everywhere i go:

http://www.bitplutos.com/


Its basically a binary optionss broker. If you are into binary options then maybe check out that. They got all sorts of instruments up to trade including various cryptos, not just bitcoin.

It could but it will take a decade.

I know because generally no matter how big poverty is, people are getting more opportunists, and alot of africans would do anything just to get a few extra bucks.

So even though they might not be technologically savy, they can learn it, and once it goes viral (social pressure on people earning money by it), it could be a big demand.

Imagine africans bartering with bitcoin, due to their crappy currencies overinflating. It could create a new economy right under our noses.

Yea i just tweeted that news earlier, it is a great news to see, but they will probably invest in bitcoin stocks, which is fair enough. The bitcoin companies generate demand (and due to big investments they are ultra competitive and easily destroy non-bitcoin competiors).

Imagine a bitcoin pizzeria that aquired 10 million dollar funding via a decentralized crowdfunding site. What other pizzeria you know that gets that much funding. Of course that pizzeria will smash their competitors with that funding, they can install LCD TV's inside their place and even jacuzzi to people.

I tell you guys, i`m more excited in the sense that bitcoin companies can gather billions of $ in funding, with this new type of crowdfunding like startcoin or whatever.



Now these penny stocks, could easily reach facebook market cap size soon. So I think the bitcoin/blockchain companies will be the next best investment in the planet.

Even when Cuba is allowing companies now, there are already bitcoin companies moving there offering bitcoin services to people.

It is just the beginning my friends. New billionaires will be born here.

Yes we would, there already exists a big decentralized information sharing network called bittorrent.

It would eventually be invented either way, due to all the censorship and capital controls we face. And the Liberty dollar /e-gold thing already provoked the existence of a decentralized money.

So Bitcoin would have been invented either way, if not by satoshi, then by somebody else, but probably a few years later.