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I think that we are still in market, where most volume is made in alt/btc pairt rather than alt/usd. Thats why in my opinion we should look at alt/btc chart and looking there good entry point and entering if there is also good entry point for btc/usd pair. Or do as i do. I try to earn satoshi by satoshi from each trade. I dont care hum much $ its it. I hold btc and trade it to alts to increase its amount. Thats why i only look at alt/btc chart.
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It will work till first failure. First coin that will not bounce will zero your porfolio after months of buying more. Risk that you take in this strategy is similar to hodlers strategy ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4456137.msg39881422#msg39881422). 100% of your portfolio. And you have no quarantee that your coin is good even if you did best research because.
1- whitepaper is just a document with words. It can be copierd and change a little. Faked. I can create myown whitepaper in which ill write that tommorow ill be on mt everest.
2-team can be faked with fake twitter account with bought fallowers
3- code - who of us can check if code is ok? How many of currencies have working code now? Most of them are just concept without working product jet.
4- hype can be bought.
5- beeing uniqe dasnt give you certainty of beeing uniqe forever. 1 month after your investment there can be new ICO with better team, bought hype and with working product delivered faster.
6- you are newbie and you did fundamential analys wrong or didnt do at all just jump after hype or because someone said that its great investment
7- there are 1600 coins. More than 1400 wont survive next few years because they are not neseesary. Your decision must be precised and full of luck
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Witaj ! Dzięki za wzięcie udzialu w 2 etapie konkursu  . Puki co jesteś pierwszym, który się tego podjął. Prosiłbym jednak abyś wybrał 1 najbardziej prawdopodobny weług ciebie scenariusz. Na wykresie zaznaczyłeś na oko z 10 scenariuszy 20.02 Edit:Niestety nie wybrałes 1 scenariusza i musialem pominąc twoje zgłoszenie. |
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Apply the same strategy during different market and you might be on loss. Only because your trading strategy in specyfic market situation gives you better return than holder strategy (no strategy in my opinion too, or dumpass strategy) dasn't makes you better than others. Same strategy in 2017 would give you worst returns than hodlers strategy. 2017 was hodlers year. 2018 was traders year. And now you came here with your 10% return in 2018 making fun out of hodlers who made 1000% in 2017. Dont get me wrong. I also think that hodling is the riskiest and worst strategy ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4456137.msg39881422#msg39881422) but i also don't think that your super simple 10 min daily strategy is the best and optimal one only because it gives 10% per year in current market. BTW 10% during whole year made by last 3 trades from 10% loss is not the reason to be proud off. |
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I agree with the first part of what Tytanowy Janusz said, during crises people are known to stay away from higher risk assets and bitcoin being volatile doesn't help that either so it surely is not the "ultimate hedge" against the financial crisis.
but bitcoin being what it is, has always been acting separate from any other market. for example when other markets are falling bitcoin has been rising in the past or vice versa. it always moves on its own and on top of that being a global asset it doesn't take effects from local incidents that much.
so in my opinion in case of a financial crisis bitcoin would either not be affected at all or rise at least a little.
I hope to see that but in my opinion we should not look at the past of bitcoin. In 2014 we had mostly nerds without speculation knowledge just enjoing having bitcoin. Now we have lots of high class speculants. Price will act different because different types of investors are holding bitcoin. We are on unknown waters. |
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During crysis investors switch from high risk/ volatility assets (stocks) to low risk/volatility assets (gold, materials) to simply decise loss. Even if gold will decline too it will for sure decline less then stock. How about bitcoin? Well its high volatile and very high risk asset. So im my opinion it will be first to be dumped (and it happend in december 2017). In my opinion bitcoin was first asset dumped in incoming crysis. Next was small stocks from emerging market and S&P now. In crysis time we could see bitcoin beeing dumped even harder (simply people will need money to live for not to invest in high risk assets). Even some life-time hodler will have to sell BTC to buy bread. But knowing the fact that average fiat currency lives 27 years, then we see hyperinflaction and devaluation. If, during cryusis, some fiat currencies will be under hyperinflation citizens of that country may run to bitcoin what will push price up making bitcoin first asset beeing pumped after crysis (or even during). I diversify my porfolio. I still hold bitcoin (life-time hodl ) but i also have short positions on some stocks. |
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HODL is the best option now for all my altcoins. I will keep Hodling till the bearish market is over. Everyone was thinking that bull run will start toward the end of the year, instead, there is a consistent reduction in price. Let keep hodling next year will get better for everyone.
I want to know what you feel, is there still hope for the remaining 18 days before the year end?
Why you assume that hodling is the best strategy for you? Currently you are loosing at liest 10% of your investment weekly hoping that someday it will recover. Thats the best for you? I dont think so. Even if we will be in another bull run there is no quarantee that your coins will be pumped. I find daytrading the one and only strategy for current market situation. Hodling is the riskiest strategy. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4456137.msg39881422#msg39881422There is topic about risks in holding and trading strategy. Hodlers of those coins was also sure that their coins will recover someday (those are top 10 coins from december 2013) Omni -90% Peercoin -80% Namecoin - 75% Quark -95% Bitshares -~100% Wordcoin -~100% And they are on ~80% loss on market that growed 20 times. Current market is pritty dumped but there is no quarantee that it wont be dumped 90% more. |
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To happen this , the whole world government should become one and ban usage of cryptocurrency. then their may be chances of it crashes to $1
How? There is nothing like whole world government. Even if most governments will ban bitcoin at liest 1 wont. Exchanges will move that so as miners. All investors will buy coins from there by VPN. And for sure there will be 1 middle class investor with 10 mil $ porfolio to stop price at 1$. |
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You need to take a look at same table but from filled buy order and compare value. But i dont know if fee is counted into this.
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1$ for btc is impossible nowadays. Too manny people now about bitcoin. There is currently 17 mil btc. Around 30% are aready lost (wrong transfer kays, lost keys, lost wallets). So we have 12 mil bitcoins. If price will drop to 1$ they will all be worth 12 mil $. It means that if you would like to stop price at 1$ you will need only 12 mil $ no metter what (all coins migh be dumped on you... in worst case you will buy them all). Will all coins be dumped? Im sure they wont. At liest i wont dump mine. I would rather leave my bitcoins bought mostly at 6k$ on wallet and forget about them rather than dumping them and withdrawing 2$? So we getting to the point that when price of btc will be around 1$ even small investor will be able to stop price. And im talking about small trader with 10 mil porfolio (there are dozens of them) Why would someone buy all bitcoins at 1$? Its unregulated market. He might trade with himself pushing price to 1000$ with only fee cost and then dump coins on fomo guys hoping for new ATH Im 100% sure that trader with 10 mil portfolio will do that. But there are traders with 100 mill portfiolio, 1 bil portfio. They could do that beafore at 100-1000$ range. The only reason why bitcoin may be dumped that hard is by destroing it. Bitcoin hashrate dropped by 40% last 2 months. https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate It means that it is twice easier to do 51% atack. https://www.blockchain.com/pools As you can see we already have companies holding 20% of hashrate. If we will lost another 50% and this company will still be running all their hardware they will have close 40% networ power. |
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https://cryptowat.ch/markets/bitfinex/btc/usd/5mAlso worth mentioning. Lots of exchanges and trading pairs. Its sometimes good to take a look whats going on other big exchange. Sometimes there is a whale stopping price on 1 exchange with 1 big buy order what explains whats going on your exchange.
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only trustworthiness is important for me in an exchange and nothing else. their platform can be the worst thing among the other exchanges but if I could trust the exchange with my money then that would be enough for me to choose that exchange instead of better designed exchanges that are not trustworthy.
it is a matter of money and its safety. I am honestly tired of all these good looking exchanges which are trusted until the day they take your money and run away: Mt Gox, Cryptsy, Bittrex, C-cex, Bitfinex,... they all were good exchanges, with good support, low fees, high volumes, lots of coins listed,... but they all scammed.
Trust is the most important as you said but due to high spread you are loosing money with every trade. If you are daytrading and you have 1 % spread after 100 trades you give away 100% of your porfolio (if you didnt cover it by your earnings you are zeroed just like after exchange hack - add high fees to it and you are zerowed in 50 trades. And 50 trades are achivable in 1 day while daytrading). Comare it with 0.1 % spread. If your are buying for lifetime hodl trust might be the only factor but hodl investors most often decides to hold token outside of exchanges. So you have to have so much bud luck to transer coins to exchange at same time it gets hacked. |
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Both are impossible to do it day by day or month by month. You can have one lucky month with 100% profit. 1 lucky day with 20% profit but it will never be repeatable. Market is different every day and every day you need to learn it.
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https://coinmarketcap.com/rankings/exchanges/List of exchanges listed by trading volume. I love binance. Lbank is scam exchange. Its realy hard to find real trade there. Most of their trades are fake just to boost trading volume on coinmarketcap. I also dont like their withdrawal policy. They had 200$ withdrawal fee for withdrawing USDT. 200$. Trade commision dasnt look important now? Huobi is not sharp enought. 20 secons - Thats how much time it needs for simple operation like this: 1- creating order 2- beeing able to cancel it 3- having money unlocked for another order 4- creating another order For binance its like as fast as you can click. For daytrading it might not be enought. Also its interface is no as good as binance is. But i trade there sometimes coins that are not listed on binance. Bithumb Interface is soo bad. I didnt tried it because I dont trust it due to very high differences in prices between other exchanges. If noone is arbitraging it something must stink. And im talking abount alt/btc. Bitfinex I dont use it due to lots of fud related with theter. In my opinion there is small chance that it might be next mtgox (rumors do not come from nowhere)
Bit-z - fake trades - just like Lbank CoinBene - its alwais a mistery if ill be able to log in. Okex might be good but i didnt test it by myself. As second best i've tested is huobi but okex might be better.
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6000 $ was weaker with every bounce. It was obvious that without gamechanging news we will break it sooner or later. if the support area around 6000$ holds again this time, we will be in a really good position to actually break the lower highs, we would only need a 1000$~ move to break it for the first time in basically a year.
If the support will hold. If not we will see 4-5k few days later. Question is - will it hold? In my opinion there is no chance to it to hold. If market will act normal we we see 6k break in next 2 weeks. Only good news can save BTC. Support is weaker with every bounce. Why? 1- With second bounce traders were buying on 6k to profit till 12k. Now with resistance close to 6700 it might not be worth to take risk. 2- Those who bought in february, may, with every dip close to 6k are slowly getting into half year into position without any profit. They are slowly getting bored and are looking where to sell 3- Shorters know that braking 5,5-6k will dump market instantly to 4k (stoplosses, overlaveraged longs) - big short from whale is getting more profitable and less risky - it might be easier to earn for big whale shoring at 6k rather than buiying to sell at 6500 4- all willing to buy at 6k range already did. Now we are seeing only low volume speculation Take a look at silver few years ago and how its end up.  Looks similar to BTC? 27$ support looks as strong as 6000$ for btc  Thats how it end showing bottom at 15$. We need good news to help this support. Otherwise we will see another support at 4-5k what will postopne next pump from december 2018 too december 2019. It was obvious for every good trader. My post from september. Support acctualy holds longer than i thought and holded for 2 months not 2 weeks (we have smart whales that simply stops selling close to support to not break it - thats why we had so low volume). Without BCH SV war we would break it too. We just made it faster (like euthanasia). When we first time hit 6k there were a loot of buyers. Huge buy volume pushed price up. Same was second time. On 15 min candles you could see how manny investors thought that 6k is extremely cheap. Each bounce after that was weaker. There was less buy strenght. Last 2 bounces was made without strong buyers. Strong sellers simply stops selling to avoid current situation. Now 3800 looked strong. Again we had strong buyers thinking that 3800 is cheap but panic selling break them in 10 days. Now 3400 after bart formation looks good but not as strong as 3600 was. I guess we will again break it and maybe find stronger support at 3000 or 2500. For now we need to have hope that 3400 will hold long enough. |
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My question is where do the quality traders hang out? What motivates you to join a new exchange?
Nothing will motivate me to switch from binance to any other new exchange. Binance is: fastest - sharp interface. Orders are on market instantly Best support - telegrams in close to 30 languages with instant replay from admin best secured - it even have special system to lock suspicious trades that in last year save custommers coins twice. higher volume (lower spread)- and its real volume. On other exchanges like Lbank Ubex, Bitforex 90% of trades are fake. Low fees - 0.075% with bnb. All other exchanges has looong way to binance. Every new exchange is untradable due to no volume (all volume is made by fake trade) what gives huge spread and untechnical/unecomomical movements. |
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People want something to believe in, so that they can justify their decisions to themselves. There was little buying at 6k even when we where there for months, there just wasn't much selling either. Now that people started to sell we can see how quickly we're falling.
The argument about stock markets is naive. Why would people pull their money from one falling market and move it to another falling market? They'll be pulling their money from stocks to cover mortgages, debts, business costs etc that they're struggling to cover because the economy is in a downturn.
When we first time hit 6k there were a loot of buyers. Huge buy volume pushed price up. Same was second time. On 15 min candles you could see how manny investors thought that 6k is extremely cheap. Each bounce after that was weaker. There was less buy strenght. Last 2 bounces was made without strong buyers. We didnt break 6k half year ago just because whales was too scared to break it and they stops selling close to support. It was obvious that we will break it sooner or later without good news (like etf). Now 3800 looked strong. Again we had stron buyers thinking that 3800 is cheap but panic selling break them in 10 days. Now 3400 after bart formation looks good but not as strong as 3600 was. I guess we will again break it and maybe find stronger support at 3000 or 2500. For now we need to have hope that 3400 will hold long enough. |
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3600 looked quite strong. Each time we touch it there was nice bounce. I thought that this might be bottom but i was wrong. 3400 doesnt look that strong so i quess it will poop faster. Maybe even today. But in the end its all depends on whales.
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99 % of bitcoins are in hodler hands. I like that talk through but I think there is more coins circulating then 1% Its no negative for people to keep reusing the currency, if anything I believe we have more to thank them for the value that exists to BTC. But yea the whole market cap thing is a guesstimate, working turnover probably matters far more. Same goes for all the exchange pricing, I only really value real world usage especially My point was to show 2 extreme examples to help OP understand that marketcap is not amount of money need to be put into market to boost to current price. I agree with you that there are more than 1% circulating coins. |
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