As an aspiring poker player myself, I can say that it is better to overestimate luck than underestimate it. There is a dangerous trap waiting in the path of a "shark", namely, the illusion that you are unbeatable. Some well-known poker pros lost a lot of money because of falling into this trap. Imo, it is always better to think that you were lucky in the case of winning, and to think that you were not skillful enough in the case of losing. It is a good strategy for improving your skills, and not falling into the trap I mentioned.
that is an interesting theory. i understand the danger of becoming cocky and overconfident. it leads to poor decision making, same as going on tilt. to me that is separate from honing your skills---which is primarily about properly leveraging your equity (the chances you will win the hand, with or without a showdown) in any given situation. that's more about pure number crunching, and also having the kind of experience that aids in hand reading your opponents. if you attribute everything to luck, i don't understand how that helps to hone those skills. |
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It makes me wonder, is there really no way you can hide away from your tax man's snooping at your Bitcoin or crypto profit?
Of course you can attempt to hide it. You might get away with it. You more might be nailed to wall and have your life blown up. In most countries tax declarations are taken on trust. It's not often they look further but when they do they do not mess around. People pay tax for the sake of a quiet life. despite the supposedly egalitarian nature of the american tax audit system, i've seen multiple tax analysts (including former IRS workers) say audits are all about cost/benefit, and that's how the IRS structures their audit flagging system---to catch big fish, not small ones. actually it's a matter of fact now that i'm looking it up. if you make $1M+ then your chances of an audit go up almost 10x. https://money.com/audit-red-flags/beyond that, for small fries like us, i'd like to think that if you cross all your Ts and dot all your Is---like reporting all the 1099 income bitcoin exchanges are handing to the IRS and play it smart by not claiming all sorts of deductions, credits, write-offs---that an audit is unlikely. especially when you consider how complex and time-consuming an audit of a crypto user could be. now that i think about it, that's probably the motivation behind the mass letter campaigns they've been doing. they don't have anywhere near the resources to audit all those letter recipients. they're just hoping to scare 90% of them into filing amended returns and ponying up the unpaid taxes. I don't have any ties so going elsewhere is no big deal for me. It would be a bit different if I had 50 kids and a disabled budgerigar. Handing over an extra quarter of one's entire profit, if it happens, would be enough to motivate me to consider shopping elsewhere.
that's the dream, ain't it? to go live on a beach somewhere where taxes and cost of living are cheap. i haven't amassed quite enough riches yet myself.  |
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not necessarily. in fact, that's the beauty of online poker. between stacked tourney schedules and multi-tabling, online players can get way, way more games in than live players. if it would take 3 years live, it might take 3 months online.
But would not that be too bad for the player? I mean what if he got the same schedule of playing at the same time is that even legal? I'm just wondering if ever that there is 2 casino who got the same player with their tournament. there's a big difference between playing multiple tables at once (multi-tabling) and using multiple accounts in the same tournament (multi-accounting). multi-accounting is prohibited but there is nothing wrong with multi-tabling. it's win-win, really. players can get a lot more hands in, which is good for profitable players riding out variance, and everyone benefits from the increased player liquidity. if everyone were only allowed one table at a time, there would be way less players sitting at ring games and playing in tournaments. But to be honest, it is more enjoyable playing poker in live than online, the interaction between the players gives more about than what they said.
to each their own! i love both. the problem with live games is they are slow, and riding out losing/break-even stretches takes a lot longer since you're seeing so much less action than online. |
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this was a tough beat for @Iv4n:
i semi-bluffed the nut flush draw the whole way, and got there on the river. then i saw him lose most of his chips on a preflop misclick a few hands later. sorry dude, shitty day!
You call it semi-bluffing! yes! semi-bluffing is an important strategy to have in the toolbox IMO. don't dismiss it so easily. https://www.cardschat.com/semi-bluff.phpSo what exactly is a poker semi-bluff?
Well the simple definition is whenever you bet with a hand that has good potential to become the best hand by the river, you are semi-bluffing. You are bluffing because you currently have no hand when you bet. However, you have good “outs” to end up with the best hand by the time the last card is dealt.
And that’s why this tactic is called a semi-bluff, not a pure bluff. You are betting with “something”, not simply with air.
Why is a semi-bluff a good poker betting strategy?
The profit you earn from playing semi-bluffing poker comes from having two ways in which you can win the pot. If your opponent folds to your bluff bet, then your bluff will work and you get paid off. While if you actually make your draw you win by having the best hand.
This makes it hard to counter semi-bluff poker plays because it is difficult to determine when your opponent actually has a hand, when he is pure bluffing and when he is chasing a monster draw. If a player varies his play correctly, he can keep his opponents guessing.
Of all the species of poker animal out there, the tight aggressive players will find semi-bluff poker betting strategies more profitable because fewer players in general will call their bluffs. Their table image has been cultivated to show a player who aggressively plays a few good hands. Thus opponents will often fold to their semi-bluff bets. i try to mix it up a bit, but most players here would probably call me tight aggressive (TAG) which is why semi-bluffing can work in my favor. my TAG image increases my fold equity---the increased chances i will win the pot because my opponent will fold outright. not only that, but i have lots of outs. in the AcJc hand, i had the nut flush draw + 2 backdoor inside straight draws + overcard on the flop. on the turn, i gained the inside straight draw. lots of outs, and also a decent chance you will fold because of the odds i already have a made hand. on the AdQd hand, i made the same fold equity considerations. on the flop and turn, i had the nut flush draw + 2 overcards. on the flop, i was the favorite to win both hands (almost 2/3 of the time in both cases) and on the turn, i had given myself the pot odds to keep betting my equity. It's not like you calling with nothing, but you are semi-bluffing again? And it's not under pair, it was straight, I just couldn't believe it's happening again! If you remember the first time and this time, it's totally the same! Same rising, same calling, and both times I was stronger in the beginning. This time I thought you had some set and on the river I got straight, I thought I was stronger this time, but cards said no! i was lucky you rivered the straight.  I need to do something about you, all in on your semi-bluffing sounds like a good solution! jamming in someone's face when you have a made hand is a good way to deal with this type of aggression. but keep this in mind: my intention is to play a made hand (set, overpair, etc) the same way i play a semi-bluff. that way, you can't tell if i have a hand or not, and if you do call my bets then i have good outs to a better hand. @iv4n was talking trash half the game and i couldn't say anything back. I had fun with myself! And it wasn't so trashy, or it was? I hope I didn't offend anyone? no offense take. i don't mind a little trash talk anyway. i only wish i could talk back lol. i'm in the middle of moving right now, very little time to play poker outside of our weekly game. one of these days i'll get the 500 krill. and then they will lower the chat requirement. Hey guys, have been on holiday for almost 5 weeks, so sorry that I missed the recent tournaments. Next Sunday I´m in, can´t wait to kick ur a****  glad to see you back dude! |
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i do think outspoken bitcoin maximalists ought to learn from lopp's mistakes. if you make your bed, be prepared to lie in it. if you spend years incessantly talking shit about everything that is not bitcoin, expect some blowback when you start shilling tokens. you can't build up a reputation and following that way then turn around and leverage it for ICO profits without pissing people off. hypocrisy is detestable. there's no way around that.
I see what you're saying in general, since their motivation behind this particular instance does seem to be profit-driven. But again I'd emphasise that making a name for yourself by telling people when a shitcoin is a shitcoin shouldn't preclude them entirely from talking about other projects. the bolded is what lopp's backpedaling would suggest, but this is actually what he made a name for himself doing: https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1151581157164797953LET IT BE ENTERED INTO THE RECORD "There's Bitcoin and then there's shitcoin." -jameson lopp, july 2019 I'm pretty dismissive of most altcoins, but I'd like to think, if there was a niche in the market that I was particularly interested in which Bitcoin doesn't cater to and I discussed a project that does, that people wouldn't be lining up to call me a hypocrite.
that's why i don't take such a black-and-white position towards altcoins and spend all my time talking shit about them. i acknowledge most of the space is scams (not so unlike the startup space in general) but i also acknowledge that bitcoin's features and ability to port changes are very limited---and rightfully so. |
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Looks like Bitrefill removed the option to buy 'Steam Gift Cards USD', they're selling them only in EUR, which is pretty annoying given Steam's new policy (wallet codes are now currency locked, meaning that codes will not convert from one currency to another)
So, a question: does anyone know any other providers currently selling steam gift cards USD (region)? Coinsbee does sell them in USD, but they only have $50 gift cards, wtf :/
keys4coins has a few lower value USD cards listed but they seem to charge a hefty premium on top: https://www.keys4coins.com/product-category/gift-cards/steam-gift-cards/i'm not too familiar with them but i see no negative reviews on trustpilot. dundle also seems to only have $50 cards in stock at the moment, but you might keep an eye on them: https://dundle.com/steam/ |
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Trump, or rather his advisors(because I bet Trump himself doesn't know a damn thing about Bitcoin mining), should change their attitude as soon as possible, if they want to be the winners in the war. BTC mining should be subsided by government because only a few private entrepreneurs can tolerate the occasional price dumps. Like any relatively new forward-looking business, it should be supported by government to thrive.
Hell no. Let it live and die on its own virtues. No taxpayer is going to be delighted at paying some miner to make money. If they can't cut it then it's their problem and they have to make way for someone who can and that's how it should be. it's an interesting question, actually. consider states like australia, whose economy is based heavily on mineral and fossil fuel extraction. both federal and state governments subsidize miners extremely heavily---their effective tax rate is a fraction of all other sectors. if bitcoin mining were to become significant in terms of GDP and the labor market, i reckon they would become increasingly subsidized for the same reasons. local governments, particularly in economically blighted regions, have even more incentive to subsidize miners for the sake of local job creation. |
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i thought old versions (which allowed the malicious download messages) no longer worked because updated servers DOS them? i remember the old version became totally unusable back when this bug was patched. i guess the attacker must still be running lots of servers. crazy.... i thought this exploit was long gone. I hope he didn't put all his eggs in one basket.
If I had 1400 bitcoin in an electrum wallet, I would also have at least 1000 in some other wallet and apart from that a lot of money in fiat, stocks, mutual funds etc.
yeah, it's prudent to spread around your holdings. code bugs and exploits are always possible with any wallet. the real lessons IMO: 1. always go to the official source and verify that the update is legit before downloading/installing, and 2. keep your private keys offline. the victim should have used his master pubkey to make a watching-only wallet on his online machine, then used an offline machine to sign transactions. this type of exploit cannot target an airgapped machine. if your watching-only node can't push transactions or is getting spammed with weird messages, that's a warning to look for an update through official channels. |
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The difference here is that even McAfee himself will happily acknowledge that he's a drug soaked buffoon. The subjects of this thread have been casting down holy edicts, verdicts and decrees from their self appointed Mount Olympus for many years.
indeed, at this moment, i have more respect for john mcafee tbh. at least he's always been unapologetic about his antics and doesn't project the "holier than thou" attitude. i do think outspoken bitcoin maximalists ought to learn from lopp's mistakes. if you make your bed, be prepared to lie in it. if you spend years incessantly talking shit about everything that is not bitcoin, expect some blowback when you start shilling tokens. you can't build up a reputation and following that way then turn around and leverage it for ICO profits without pissing people off. hypocrisy is detestable. there's no way around that. Jameson sorte a self defence blog post. You can read it here: On Shitcoins and STOsA breakdown of different types of cryptographic tokens and the controversies generated by their proponents.
Warning: as suggested on Twitter, a little bit of mental gymnastic required when reading this (guess much more had to be applied writing it). you can say that again. i could barely make it halfway through.  |
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in that one tournament, yes, luck will be a big determining factor. a single suckout can knock the best player out of the game. however, if you run that same tournament 1000 times, i am confident the best players will cash statistically more often. that's what i'm getting at.
Agreed. But that would take like 3 years of playing. not necessarily. in fact, that's the beauty of online poker. between stacked tourney schedules and multi-tabling, online players can get way, way more games in than live players. if it would take 3 years live, it might take 3 months online. |
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you can't feasibly transact physically in atoms of gold because gold can't be physically divided to that level.
Not true. There are already tools to manipulate physical matter at nanoscale level. See this wiki article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_(atoms)let's use the old "cup of coffee" example bitcoiners are so fond of. walk me through it. let's say the price of gold has skyrocketed so that consumer goods can now be priced in atoms of gold. i walk into a coffee shop. how do i pay the cashier for a cup of coffee in atoms of gold? how do they verify the gold is genuine, and how many atoms i've paid? how to they take physical receipt? with bitcoin, this problem can be solved relatively easily. you could transact in sub-satoshi units on another compatible protocol like LN. another way is to fork the bitcoin protocol to allow for greater divisibility past the satoshi unit. either way, free software can be used to quickly verify that a payment is genuine, and when settlement has taken place. how much would it cost for merchants to buy and maintain tools capable of physically verifying and receiving gold at the atomic level? |
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But such laws are changeable, and it can happen that someone moves to a country that has very favorable tax laws, and they literally become very unfavorable overnight.
Yes, especially with something as fast moving as this. A lot of jurisdictions are still dithering and edicts could arrive any time. I'd feel a right twat if I'd moved somewhere only for the rates to be jacked up. I'm impressed at some of the rates in non tax havens but it seems a bit strange for those countries to let that much potential tax slide. speaking of which, south korea just passed a new tax on crypto trading income. it's actually pretty favorable compared to many other countries at 20%---slightly lower than the existing tax on stock trading income, and equal to the upper tier long term capital gains rate in the USA. https://cointelegraph.com/news/south-korea-finalizes-cryptocurrency-income-tax-of-20i was surprised to see folks bitching and moaning about it, considering how bad taxes are in parts of europe, japan, etc. 20% is usually the minimum rate i pay on capital gains, and my average rate is definitely higher. |
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i went out in 10th, not my day. that was basically the nittiest game i have ever played in. i think there was only 1 person knocked out in the last ~hour of play before i went out. with blinds ridiculously high vs stacks it was all push/fold. i had the unfortunate luck of not having live cards in 2 preflop all-in situations, 97s vs A9o and A9o vs AJo. gg. i sure hope it's a bit more interesting next time! push/fold for an hour straight is mind numbing. i wish i were knocked out earlier, lol. Hopefully they will change that soon, as Hhampuz already mentioned, I'm feeling like a misfit while everyone is chatting!  you and me both. @iv4n was talking trash half the game and i couldn't say anything back. it's my fault i guess. tbh i haven't played a raked/fee game on SwC in a good 2 months. Sorry yahoo, I wanna chat but this stupid krill requirement is forcing me to be antisocial during the games.
It cost me about 0.03 to get 500 krill to talk in the tables. Then I had nothing to say. |
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So there are much more atoms of gold in the world than satoshis.
Actually, there are 3,057,318,373,000,000 more atoms of gold on Earth than satoshis.
(about, 3 quadrillion times more). next, tell me how many grains of sand there are on the earth, compared to how many specks of dirt there are! Yes, a comparison between gold's smallest amount and BTC's smallest amount.
you can't feasibly transact physically in atoms of gold because gold can't be physically divided to that level. you could use some sort of paper gold mechanism, but that introduces trust. bitcoin's entire purpose is to eliminate trust, so i don't see what practical relevance this comparison has. |
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In the UK there's talk of raising capital gains to be in line with income tax to pay for our virus holidays. For a large amount of profit in Bitcoin and friends that would mean an increase from 20% to 45%. https://archive.is/VJrzYThere's a good chance of it not happening as it'll outrage the government's rich friends but if it does 45% would be way too much and I'd look seriously at relocating as there's not much keeping me here anyway. 20% I can absolutely live with. Over double and I'm going to get serious about shopping elsewhere. Do you have a limit to your tolerance or would you stay put no matter what rates they threw at you? I expect many other countries will be looking at low hanging fruit too. is it 20% or 28%? That would mean second-home owners and those who own buy-to-let properties paying capital gains tax at 40% or 45% instead of the current 28% when they sell those properties. the USA taxes short term capital gains at the ordinary income tax rate, but long term gains get a significant tax break. i know germany has a similar system. does the UK tax code make no distinction like that? holding for 2 days is the same as holding for 2 years? |
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So finally it was the end to my long standing belief that I always win if I borrow the entry fees. LoL!
it was a good run while it lasted. Oh wait, is it new that 500 krill points are required? I found a list on the SwC site where it says that only 1 krill is required to access the chat. it's new as of several weeks ago, and is hopefully only a temporary measure to deal with some chat abuse issues. they didn't bother updating the krill rewards page. you'll see the real 500 krill limit if you try to chat at the table and haven't earned enough. |
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lol, @iv4n just had steam coming out of his ears! i wish i could respond in the chat. this hand is worth recapping:  i raise AQs from the BTN pre. @iv4n check-calls with 77. 2-diamond flop, @iv4n checks. of course i bet my nut flush draw + overcards into him. same on turn. he check-calls a pot-sized bet on river diamond. i wasn't raising with nothing, like you said. after the flop, i was the favorite to win! when you showed weakness, i wanted to steal the pot, knowing i still had many outs on the river. i am amazed you are calling down 3 streets with nothing but an under pair! Foma I will remember this.... every next rise from you is my all in! hehe, well just so you know, i would probably play JJ-AA or AT or trips the same way on flop and turn. but you can believe every bet i make is a bluff---i don't mind that. lol, and look who's lucky now, calling my flop bet with only an inside straight draw and then sucking out to a better straight on the turn!   Damn. had me right from the get go... dirty limped pots I likely wouldn't have stacked off with that turn, I do sometimes bluff those 4 to a flush boards on the river but only if I have no showdown value. You could have gotten more chips out of me though... not many but checking turn would have given me a bit of confidence.. Hard to do when your creaming your pants with the nuttiest of nut hands. yeah i quickly thought about what you might raise my flop bet with, hoped for a spade, and ran with it. |
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In the end, it is turnout, which is going to matter. Back in 2016, Hillary had a clear advantage over Trump on the election day. But not all of the Democrat voters turned up to vote. The same can happen this time as well. Opinion polls have found that more than half of those who intend to vote for Biden are going to prefer postal voting. It is not clear how many of them will be able to do that. whatever everyone thinks is gonna happen, probably won't. think about it. most americans expected hillary to win in 2016. most also expected republicans to hold the house in 2018. they were totally wrong on both counts. now look at what is happening. no one at all is expecting a blowout biden victory like they did with hillary in 2016. in fact, everyone seems to be preparing for a trump victory. they think the polls are wrong and that the silent trump vote will be the determining factor. https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/30/politics/trump-polling-analysis/index.htmlThe result of the 2016 outcome for this cycle is that the general public doesn't buy the polling showing Biden clearly ahead. They think Trump is going to win.
A Pew Research Center poll published earlier this month demonstrates what's going on quite well. The poll had Biden up by 8 points over Trump, very similar to the average and the Ipsos poll discussed earlier.
Yet, the same poll found that Americans believed by a 51% to 46% margin that Trump would defeat Biden in the election. (Among voters, it was a tighter 50% to 48% spread in favor of Trump.)
The poll indicates that voters either believe the race will shift back to Trump or that the polling is wrong.
Interestingly, the poll was self administered via the internet without live interviewers, so it's not like the voters who said they were voting for Biden had reason to give what they might perceive as the more socially desirable answer (i.e. not voting for Trump).
Despite this, some voters think the polling is off.
Another question getting at the idea of potentially hidden Trump voters shows something similar to the Pew poll. By a 5-point margin, voters in an August Fox News poll said they thought more of their neighbors were voting for Trump over Biden. Biden was ahead in the horserace by 7 points in the poll. betting odds are showing the same thing. biden and trump are basically neck and neck in the odds now. i expected a trump recovery but not so quickly! https://odds.watch/trump-2020anyway, this kind of atmosphere bolsters biden's chances in my mind. another trump victory just like 2016? that sounds a little too predictable. |
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@Steamtyme i screwed up that spade hand, the one where you flopped the nut straight. i flopped a flush and turned the nut straight flush. i obviously should have check-raised you on the turn---i suspect you would have bet into me. i was hoping you had something like As or had flopped a better flush and were looking to stack off.....  |
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