Unfortunately me mentioning something does not make you right.
Just as there is a correlation between the expansion of debt and a billion other things. Its a null argument and NOT significant.

Why is a correlation "significant" when its over a 300 year time period where there could be a million other explanations?

Fiat is equal to debt, its a piece of paper with a promise = debt.


Actually it makes perfect sense:
1. Increase in goods.
2. Increase in productivity.
3. More credit is created, but due to more goods you don't get hyper inflation.
3. Due to increased productivity more ventures are successful and people as result more readily give loans.

This is the reverse:
1. More credit is created.
2. More businesses get funded and products bought.
3. However productivity can not increase drastically in short time and supply falls short.
4. More businesses can sell, but their costs quickly go up as well due to resource/productivity constraints.
5. Hyper inflation or debt liquidation occurs.

More money only means higher prices.

What matters is not the money investment, but what fraction of ALL humans work on something productive. More money will not necessarily change this "productive fraction/percentage" in the right direction.

However with an increase in productivity due to tech or simply more humans you can have more money without inflation. Hence money creation FOLLOWS production.

If you really believe money creates wealth then why isn't every government printing like crazy with everyone living in utopia? Because your theory is WRONG.


Fine "debt expansion" - that has ALSO happened before.


No you do, they failed once they tried to create money to solve their problems. YOUR EXACT PROPOSAL!

You are being obtuse; obviously SOMEONE borrowed, but overall there was less fiat/debt and more savings-investment.

That only explains the crisis in US and other authoritarian regimes. Why is the rest of the world having a financial crisis? Why is China slowing down?
They invest and invest and invest.

You are basically correct that the crisis is caused by bad investments and by an exploiting elite.
These bad investments cause productivity to fall (Iraq etc.).

With less productivity, ventures fail and banks fail - debt contracts.

Now if you were correct in money/debt/fiat expansion creating ANYTHING, then WHY is the order in reverse? Why are we seeing productivity drops from an idiot consumerist society and THEN money contraction?

I just pointed to evidence of CAUSATION.

The best you have is vagueness of when debt is good/bad and MAYBE some correlation the last 300 years - you haven't even established when you think this expansion began and when the money expansion began - I can date my data:

?-1990 productivity steadily rises along with money supply. ~1990-2007 all is pretty good with money markets, but the market is obviously wasting human effort and resources on too big houses, hummers and wars while paying no heed to resource depletion or climate change - a contraction of productivity.
THEN in 2008 money markets crash and have been since.

Again: WHY is the order the reverse if money comes before trade?

Please explain that. Then tell me where my theory doesn't match up with reality just ONCE. Just point out one measly example of where more productivity lead to less money/debt in the world total and I throw away my theory.

Also please agree with the statements in bold or I will consider you an economist/troll and ignore you.

I'm not saying we are doomed, just that the easy boom times are gone.

I was simply pointing out that if inflation and debt have been a constant while we have had both ups and downs then inflation cannot be the cause of expansion - in fact, data suggests it has little or NO relation.
Additionally there is a whole LIST on wiki with hyper inflation countries, MANY western ones too. Most of these cases where not good for the economy or mankind.

In other words Bitcoin may have largely no effect on the economy or a good effect compared to inflation. Until the BTC economy dies on its own instead of growing inexplicably to economists I will not worry.

Any swarm communication protocol needs to relay block segments that are connected to the root - a branch basically.

Further branches must be able to be requested so that a swarm client can request a specific part of a block.
Something like "right-left-left-right->all below" for instance.

Something like subscribing to updates about certain addresses also need to be possible.

Can't give this my full attention at the moment, but it seems more important than multi-threading though that is also very cool.

Well first of all correlation != (not equal) causation - that ESPECIALLY goes when we are talking a 300 year time period. Did inflation/fiat also cause Hitler, the atomic bomb and the moon landings?
Quite simply too much of a stretch.

I believe the industrial age was the cause for easy credit NOT the other way around.

Now that we are 7 billion people and our natural and energy resources are at their peak and stretched thin this easy credit is starting to disappear in the ongoing financial crisis.

Keep in mind that money comes AFTER goods. It is JUST a point system. BTC may be a better point system, but even BTC has its limits - I doubt it will lead to world peace and a star trek like wealthy utopia.

The industrial revolution was simply a result of ongoing human progress.

The above fits perfectly with our reality, NOW lets look at YOUR theory:


To say the industrial age started the second debt came is wrong as debt existed before - it is even in several bible stories if I'm not mistaken.
Even the Romans tried government debt/fiat with coins containing less and less amounts of precious metals. It did NOT work well.

Further, today we have more government debt than ever before and things are looking bad whether you believe in peak resources/climate change or not.
If debt = expansion/progress why is it not working now?


Occam's razor: 300 years ago we had lots of potential ahead of us and loads of free stuff lying around in nature - now we DON'T. Boom; simple.

All is forgiven, some people really want stuff like that so I understand why you could take it seriously.

Well with a swarm/light client the load on nodes is much smaller.

Additionally full non-miner nodes are not strictly needed to run the network and may only switch on when transferring their users funds. I guess you could say their compensation is getting to use BTC much like your compensation for sharing torrent files is getting files yourself.

I don't think you can say those are related just because they happened in kind of the same time period.

The dark ages weren't dark anyway, they still invented cool things.

Fossil fuel and the industrial age was the real kicker, not some new human point system.

You mean 20% right?

21% - deflation of 1% = 20% (21 in real interest)

But isn't that good?

Prices would drastically lower and people wouldn't be slaves to debt anymore.

It would become easier to sell your home, move and buy a new one.


In depressions of inflating BTC prices massive savings would fly away to solve the problem at hand until deflation and new saving returned.

Basically an automatic, but healthy form of Keynesianism that doesn't pervert markets into over consumption, war and throw-away economies.

BURN of truth!

If I had been in Pirate funds I would be very quiet about my stupidity I think - maybe just admit I made a mistake and leave it there.


I hope for Pirates sake he is in a country with a sucky police though. Pretty sure what he did IS illegal.

1. Because he ran with all your money.

2. Because he has 500K BTC, he doesn't give a shit about you or any other investor he has.

3. He DOES have a great future, from what you people have been giving him against all reason and advice he can live rich a long long time.


I suggest you call the cops, but don't do something that gets YOU in trouble just suck up the loss.

Joel +1.

Sounds to me like Bitlane will be one of the first to try that 5$ wrench on Bitcoin security

30-36 million DKK, 5-6 million USD or 10 very nice houses. Insane stuff.

Did you like read my post?

I think it was pretty obvious that I was making fun of the future whiners that will demand charge backs - using that as an example of how crazy they are.

To make things clearer for you: I Realpra do NOT favor charge backs. That is not how money works... 6 months is just insanity anyway.

Most investors are rational, they just don't have perfect information.

If someone pushed BTC up to 12 from an average of 10, even rational actors have no way of knowing whether that was a new guy buying into BTC OR a manipulator moving temporarily out of BTC to change the price.

Big investment firms for this reason spend a lot on gathering information and hence their actions come to look more rational than others.


Still I see manipulation as kind of gambling where you can win a little or loose a LOT.

See even when the price was pushed to 15.40 recently by euphoria it was a very weak price and collapsed at a few sells - even if you had orchestrated that you would not have been able to sell that many coins at that price.

I was genuinely confused which was why it did not look like sarcasm.
It seems the explanation is that he has basically defaulted, but told people he will pay them back once he tops off his hot wallets.

This is why the forum isn't full of the naive whiners yet, they still think they will get their money.

Ahh don't they realize that you can top up a hot wallet in literally 10 minutes?

*Gets popcorn*

Wait what? He did?

Surely you are joking or expressing how sure you are that he will default?

If Pirate had actually defaulted the forum should be FULL of people wanting their money back and trying to re-design Bitcoin with a 6 months charge back period!

I love this thread.

Stole this here "http://nd.edu/~jstiver/jokes.htm":
"A mathematician, an accountant and an economist apply for the same job.

The interviewer calls in the mathematician and asks "What do two plus two equal?" The mathematician replies "Four." The interviewer asks "Four, exactly?" The mathematician looks at the interviewer incredulously and says "Yes, four, exactly."

Then the interviewer calls in the accountant and asks the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The accountant says "On average, four - give or take ten percent, but on average, four."

Then the interviewer calls in the economist and poses the same question "What do two plus two equal?" The economist gets up, locks the door, closes the shade, sits down next to the interviewer and says, "What do you want it to equal"?"

You are exactly correct.

There IS one good reason to invest though; a low-risk investment may be better than holding inflating fiat IF you fear a BTC price drop coming soon.

(like the bubble burst just recently)

Basically you could get 5% instead of -4% while waiting for the BTC drop you fear. Even if you are incorrect and buy back into BTC at a loss at least your loss is smaller by 9% per year.

Once BTC stabilizes in 2050 or something, invest away.

Obviously there are differences from country to country.

I had to pay around 9.6% to move funds into mtgox using a SEPA transaction and then into BTC. That took around 2 weeks.

Recently I used Bitcoin Nordic who charge 9% and are faster. So yeah things are improving, but I think for many BTC/fiat conversion is costly.

By living very shortly before starving to death/being hanged by an angry mob?

(I know its a joke  )

No it does not; anyone can pick up a rock, this action produces nothing.
If you picked up a bunch of rocks that would have been hard to do, but your rock pile would still be worthless simply due to the cost of moving it from you to the seller of the car.

Compare to Bitcoin, to earn BTC you need to work, perhaps building said car - something valuable. If you do not buy the car you made there is more competition to sell cars cheaply and someone somewhere gets a car they would not otherwise have had.

Once YOU need a car (or something else) your BTC are easily transferred and if most are saving like you, you will also pay a cheaper price.


All of this is backed up by the fact that the BTC economy is growing; helping businessmen transfer wealth and new BTC businesses spring into existence every week it seems.

There may still be a BTC economy financial crisis in the future if people invest in something like a housing bubble (like both today AND the great depression!). This is neither caused by inflation nor deflation, but simply bad allocation of human resources.

You cannot avoid this, without experimenting, no one can really know what a good investment is.

Pirate has the BTC, the price movement depends largely on what HE does - buying Ferraris = down, holding BTC for a nice retirement = stability/up.

There may be some up movement to BTC if people panic on GLBSE and sell other stocks/bonds and move back into BTC.

Based on how little the Bitcoinica hack did to price I am guessing the effect of Pirate either way will be small.