Nice article on WIRED. Getting this out in the open with figures and court documents for all to view, makes this situation shrink to manageable levels of drama. Good for everyone, nicely done!
which article? |
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Its their game, we are just barnacles on the underside of the cargo ship trying to guess which way the captain will steer.
Epic analogy! |
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the methodology is certainly interesting, but in the face of the fundamental issues and other forces pushing the price higher I just don't see this drop happening in the short term. Until mtgox is able to reliably become an exchange again (rather than a trap...), the price essentially has only one direction.
It is tempting to infer a psychology based on such 'fundamentals' but how do you measure that? What I am actually seeing is nothing more that a repetition of behaviors that can actually be measured. Until I see evidence that tells me something different I still have to base my conclusions on what can be demonstrated. Right now I am taking a more principled look at the distribution of price movement, and I have discovered an interesting correlation between the standard deviation of movement from bin to bin, and momentum. It shows that as momentum picks up in either direction the standard deviation increases, and when momentum starts to reverse the standard deviation decreases. We have already gone through a period where the standard deviation has reached a minimum and it is now increasing again. I expect momentum to pick up in a downward direction. More to come... Not everything that will affect the price can be measured. I'm not talking about psychology, I'm talking about the fact that people cannot get their fiat out of gox, which forces them to buy coins and move it elsewhere. This is simply a form of resignation which pushes the price up directly when those who finally realize there is no other way out decide to bite the bullet. To be clear, I'm in no way discounting your methodology, I think it's very interesting and may be quite valid under normal market circumstances. But we are far from normal market circumstances and therefore there is no way one can use these sorts of techniques to achieve anything resembling market prediction. |
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the methodology is certainly interesting, but in the face of the fundamental issues and other forces pushing the price higher I just don't see this drop happening in the short term. Until mtgox is able to reliably become an exchange again (rather than a trap...), the price essentially has only one direction.
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Here is a little something I have been experimenting with. The one week call.
I basically use the same assumptions that I am using for the reversal projection, except that in the reporting I am picking off samples from a specific time target. I am specifically targeting the VWA one week out. And with that, here's a test call:
Friday, September 20, 2013 $130.27
I approve of this prediction(projection)! Apologies for coming late to the party, but are you predicting gox or bitstamp's price here? |
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so, it will go up the longer that gox is around...and as soon as gox announces its shutting down it will plummet?
sounds like a plan to me.
pretty much. We can draw all the pretty lines we want, but it all means nothing when there is a fundamental issue of such proportions that it completely distorts the price. "Normal" market behavior goes out the window in these circumstances. |
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i feel like we are going over 150 this time or soon, but i'm way more anxious about buying in at 140 than when we were at back in the 90s and contemplating whether we would hit 100 in July. I'd rather we just go back down to 110 before i buy again, but hopefully that will happen before too long and i loose my nerve and buy in above 140.
You had your chance to buy cheap coins when the price was artificially below 130 during the recent beartrap. Hm, what do you mean artificially? To me that implies manipulation. The only potential manipulation would be a cash whale wanting a lower price.. which isnt... really manipulation. After systematically pushing the price up for almost two months with well-placed periodic large buys accompanied by immediate bidwalls to prevent slippage, then after letting market inertia carry for a couple of days without intervention, using a couple of 5k-6k dumps to panic the price down by over $20, they spent a similar amount to return it to where it started, buying and hoarding an unknown amount of coins when the price was down below 130. Not manipulation? This whole market is a manipulation circlejerk. This is why outdated 19th-century/early-20th-century technical analysis is futile in the world of Bitcoin. It's time to think outside the box or get stuck in the tarpits like dinosaurs. I earned bitcoins daytrading back in March/April by anticipating dDOS attacks on MtGox. The smart money now is on anticipating whale manipulation. Of course the smart people don't publicize their predictions, or at least not precisely. What a dick He might be a dick but he's not wrong. I've been saying it for a long time, but I'll say it again. Tech analysis can work well in larger markets, but bitcoin is simply far too small for it to be of much use (I use it in some situations, but mostly stick to fundamentals). |
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Some seems to be interested in making the upward option happen.  Or letting the bids fill in around him so he can pull it and dump... His real bids will be scattered below where he sells it to. Maybe, but a bit too risky for most whales taste I suspect. There is virtually no spread between his bid and the current bid, far too easy for one to dump right into it should one be so inclined. |
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Some seems to be interested in making the upward option happen. |
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There is supposed to be news released by ebay in the middle of this month related to the changes to their categories... which as far I understand will still include something related to virtual currencies.
Buckle up.
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I've said this many times before: I just can't understand why someone hasn't done this already. It just seems too easy. (Although maybe it just seems that way to me since I have been thinking about it constantly for a couple of years now)
When you think about/ practice something for that long, it does seem easy, sometimes trivial even. Don't sell yourself short, this has the potential to be an amazing solution to many of the issues currently facing the cryptographic currency space. If it was that easy, someone else would have thought of it earlier. |
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Could be a bear trap. Bitstamp currently has positive money flow while Gox has negative money flow. Interesting because the StochRSI now indicates they are both oversold. It seems Bitstamp is Bullish and Gox is Bearish. Bitstamps "positive money" flow is larger than Gox's "negative money" flow; Seems like a battle between exchanges and looks like Gox USD volume is about even with Bitstamp atm, so Bitstamp may take the bullish lead. It will be interesting to see which way we go.   Yep, this hits the situation we are in right on the button.  |
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not a bad thought. but i believe it was on gox where the dumps happened first which would be strange if they are actually expecting to see that money. |
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I think you should not spread, that SEPA transfers are solved, until you saw it with your own eyes.. And even if no one here is lying it could be the same as usual, that it's just luck which transfer is fast and which not.
Fact is that there are thousands of undone withdraws pending or "confirmed" since weeks or months. Only if these undone transfers were done, they can say "it's solved".
You have to document your claim of thousands of withdraws pending. I count a total of three recent SEPA withdrawals in this thread which have been pending for more than two weeks. Each one reeported over and over. Standard international withdrawal is very slow. We know that. There is a huge backlog from the middle of June. I'll try a four digit SEPA withdrawal next week, and report back. I have 5 open SEPA transfers. 3 of them about 200€, one 400€ and one of 800€. I ordered the transfers: 2013/07/30 , 2013/07/30 , 2013/07/31 ,2013/08/12 and 2013/08/14. One order from 2013/07/26 about 200€ I got after 3 weeks. So nothing is solved for open transfers... and I doubt it's solved for new transfers, but we will see. Edit: ah and one withdrawl about 150€ from 2013/07/23 I got after a few days. Edit2: just because there are not many people reporting delayed transfers, u can't say there are no. Because at the moment it's "normal" and normally no one cares about it anymore. Today I made a new SEPA transfer about 300€, I will report back, if I get them next week. I didn't have to contact support. MagicalTux explained it on #mtgox today: 13:30 < jouke> Just received an answer on my ticket: "We were bound to certain
withdrawal limits per day which forces the requests to pile up
in long queue. We suggest you to cancel all your pending
withdrawal request and make a new combined single request. So
that it be processed faster."
13:32 <@MagicalTux> remember one thing
13:32 <@MagicalTux> if you did multiple requests, only one can be processed
every ~20 days
In short: Cancel all your tiny withdrawals and merge them into one. It will be processed much faster. That is fuckin VITAL information. Its only true if its up to €30k in total. Anymore than that and you screw yourself worse. |
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I'm registered as a business with eBay (I think) and I sold about $30,000 USD worth of Casascius Coins on eBay. When the original voicemail was left for me I think he was looking to gain information on whether or not I would return to selling BTC on eBay if their policies were adjusted to allow it, (hence the incorporating it into ebay as an allowable item to sell). Then when we got on the phone we began discussing how PayPal can eliminate or reduce the liability to the seller regarding Fincen guidelines.
I'm pretty impressed by that little bitcoin video. That is very positive news in my opinion. Maybe paypal won't be our great enemy after all. Don't kid yourself. They just froze funds for Mailpile. They won't do anything until they have figured out how to corral Bitcoin into black-hole eBay branded wallets. I'm sure they figured that out before they made this video. http://deals.ebay.com/blog/whats-the-deal-with-bitcoins-anyway/It's the only thing to figure out, otherwise integration is really easy. Basically, you won't be able to fund eBay brand Bitcoins unless you can prove their pedigree, and you won't be able to send them anywhere that has not been pre-approved. Any attempt to brand bitcoins would be met with nothing less than hilarious ridicule. They aren't stupid and they know this. They should be (and apparently are) trying to gauge public perception of the possibility of coins being integrated into both ebay and paypal. |
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I'm registered as a business with eBay (I think) and I sold about $30,000 USD worth of Casascius Coins on eBay. When the original voicemail was left for me I think he was looking to gain information on whether or not I would return to selling BTC on eBay if their policies were adjusted to allow it, (hence the incorporating it into ebay as an allowable item to sell). Then when we got on the phone we began discussing how PayPal can eliminate or reduce the liability to the seller regarding Fincen guidelines.
I'm pretty impressed by that little bitcoin video. That is very positive news in my opinion. Maybe paypal won't be our great enemy after all. Don't kid yourself. They just froze funds for Mailpile. They won't do anything until they have figured out how to corral Bitcoin into black-hole eBay branded wallets. I'm sure they figured that out before they made this video. http://deals.ebay.com/blog/whats-the-deal-with-bitcoins-anyway/ |
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The mike from ebay guy is heavily involved in Paypal too, just Google his full name.
I still cannot believe they are seriously considering integrating BTC, that would be like AT&T selling phones with an open source version of Skype pre-installed in order "to be ahead of the curve".
It just does not make sense for Paypal/Ebay. On the other hand a Paypal proprietary crypto would make much more sense.
I disagree. It's only a matter of time before either Paypal, western union or some other large money handling service takes the ball and runs with it. There are many ways both companies could easily and profitably integrate them into their businesses. Paypal for example simply acting as a 100% secure FDIC insured bitcoin wallet/ all in one payment solution (that is supposed to be their business model after all...) and western union as a way to lower their infrastructure costs. They know this and that's why guys like Mike are "trying to stay ahead of it". If they don't they know that their lunch is going to get eaten. Paypal crypto will never happen for the same reason that a USA crypto will never happen (noone will use it). |
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Yes, MtGox is collapsing now. Not sure if serious or not " August 26, 2011" |
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