Bitcoin Forum
July 04, 2024, 10:34:46 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
  Home Help Search Login Register More  
  Show Posts
Pages: « 1 ... 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 [231] 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 ... 471 »
4601  Economy / Economics / Re: Can we agree BTC is not a store of value? on: March 22, 2020, 02:33:18 AM
Long-term, Bitcoin is a Store of Value.

Short-term, Bitcoin is a speculative asset.

By long-term, I mean the time horizon is 5-10 years (more than 1 halving). This is my current thesis. We can divide Bitcoin owners into two groups: long-term hodlers and short-term traders. The groups are somewhat fluid. Some hodlers switch to trading. Some traders switch to holding.

Bitcoin's price movement is mostly controlled by traders in the short-term. But in the long-term, hodlers will ultimately decide the price movement. Bitcoin price long-term has been up. That suggests a growing number of hodlers. Data also suggests growing hodlers.

People will move their money around. Know your long-term timeline. Ignore short-term price movement.

5-10 years isn't really a long term, I bet nothing will seriously change in Bitcoin - the price will be higher than it is now, but it still would be speculative and risky. If some other major crisis will happen at that time, Bitcoin would probably react just as it did now.

Bitcoin today is ten times higher than it was 4-5 years ago, and still it is just as volatile. It will take really-really long for Bitcoin to become a mainstream asset like gold, if it will actually happen.
4602  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2020-03-19] Bitcoin Rallies as Fiat Currencies Drop Against the U.S. Dollar on: March 22, 2020, 12:14:09 AM
Bitcoin's recent price increase isn't tied to whatever is happening with fiat, it's just a correction after falling too much. I think sub-$6,000 prices are completely unjustified, since it's below the previous support levels and the market wants to be bullish because of halvening (it already had two small rallies).

Bitcoin isn't tied to every smallest market move of fiat or stocks, it's only affected when there are large shifts, like the recent stock market crash.
4603  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Very innovative BTC/ETH scam ongoing live, right now. on: March 21, 2020, 11:36:23 PM
Sadly, the most vulnerable people likely don't visit this forum or other social platforms about Bitcoin, they probably bought it and keep it on exchange without doing any further research. This means that if you have friends who are like that, it's your duty to inform them about this scam or better just educate them about scams and other dangers in general, so they won't fall victim in the future.
4604  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Antifragile Bitcoin Was Born To Thrive In An Economic Crisis on: March 21, 2020, 08:14:30 AM
Bitcoin has a lot of cool properties, but none of them makes it a hedge against global economy. Limited supply alone is not enough to make it one, you need faith of the population, and currently almost everyone who isn't a bitcoiner views it as a risky asset at best and a ponzi/bubble at worst. You can only start telling that Bitcoin is a safe haven when it actually shows that it is one during a major crisis. Maybe it will happen in the future, but right now there's no such correlation.
4605  Economy / Economics / Re: The Corona Pandemic economic guessing game on: March 21, 2020, 06:32:07 AM
Isn't the goal of quarantines is to stop infections from spreading? I'm confused.

With diseases like the coronavirus you can't truly stop them, only slow them down, which is the goal right now.

I believe 6 months of no/truly low economic productivity/output is enough to default countries with weak economies. Plus the damage of the pandemic.

Entertainment industry, tourism, etc. are taking a huge hit now, but people still go to work in many places, and office jobs allow their workers to work from home. It's not like the economy if fully stopped. And quarantine shouldn't last 6 months, the epidemic might, but the quarantine should be over when the epidemic will start slowing down.


The question was, guessing what country's government would default first. Italy? Iraq?


And my answer was - no country will default. But if you want to make a good guess, I'd say it might be a country that already has weak economy and would be most affected by the anti-epidemic measures, so maybe it's some poor country that lives off tourism.
4606  Other / Politics & Society / Re: COVID-19 teaches all of us. on: March 21, 2020, 05:36:57 AM
I get it that you are trying to stay positive, but thousands of people are dead, do you really think it's a fair price to pay for all the things that you mentioned? Also, people will quickly forget about environment and all that other stuff as soon as things return to normal. And what's worse, a lot of people are putting their heads in the sand and still refuse to acknowledge the danger, and they not only endanger themselves, but also everyone around them, especially the elderly.

And look at the US - they didn't take measures for weeks and are now projected to have much more serious epidemic. The previous outbreaks didn't teach them anything.
4607  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: is this the best time to teach about bitcoin? on: March 21, 2020, 05:04:43 AM
Bitcoin wasn't created to be a source of income, and its ecosystem isn't a good source of income either. There's simply not much opportunities and a lot of scams around. So it's not a good idea to introduce it as a solution to financial problems, especially with how volatile the market is. What you should do instead is teach about core values of Bitcoin - personal freedom, decentralization, controlling your own money.

You are right that a lot of people are staying at homes right now and might be bored, so learning about Bitcoin could be interesting to them, just don't tell them that it can somehow replace their (lost) jobs.
4608  Economy / Economics / Re: The Corona Pandemic economic guessing game on: March 21, 2020, 03:34:06 AM
My prediction is that no country will have to declare default as the result of the coronavirus, because all countries will manage to deal with this epidemic, even if some will have it way worse than the others. China says they are already past the peak of this epidemic, and while their economy took a hit they are nowhere near bankruptcy. I think even Italy will manage.


But if the pandemic lasts longer than thought, no defaults? Impossible.


Well, the goal of a quarantine is actually to make the epidemic to last longer to spread the diseases cases over longer period of time, so that the hospitals always have enough capacity to threat people and as the result less people die. I think the current predictions say that this pandemic will last for a half a year or a year, but this doesn't mean that quarantine measures will last this long too. And economists say that this year will still have global economic growth, though it will be much smaller, something like 1.25%
4609  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Russia Banned Crypto Trading on: March 21, 2020, 03:20:58 AM
There's no way it would affect the price significantly, Russia's Bitcoin use was always small, it doesn't have a lot of hashpower like China, it isn't a global superpower like the US, its economy is weak so there's not a lot of big holders who might want to dump Bitcoin. We've seen some other countries banning crypto and it didn't crash it, and it won't happen this time.
4610  Economy / Economics / Re: The Corona Pandemic economic guessing game on: March 20, 2020, 08:31:26 AM
My prediction is that no country will have to declare default as the result of the coronavirus, because all countries will manage to deal with this epidemic, even if some will have it way worse than the others. China says they are already past the peak of this epidemic, and while their economy took a hit they are nowhere near bankruptcy. I think even Italy will manage.

Perhaps it will be some small and poor African country or some other developing country, but those might be saved by IMF or other sources of international aid.
4611  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will Bitcoin reach $ 3884 again? on: March 20, 2020, 05:09:32 AM
The stocks continue to fall but Bitcoin is now on the rise, so for BTC the panic seems to be over or at least will be over soon. The crash was huge, it's very likely that Bitcoin was oversold, while stocks still can keep falling, especially since they were at ATH not so long ago. So, it's safe to say that we are past the bottom. I think there's a good chance that such low prices will never be seen ever again.
4612  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Russian Central Bank Admits It Can’t Ban Bitcoin on: March 20, 2020, 04:20:13 AM
...

If they put a ban on purchasing and usage in the legal way  the effects would be devastating, and if the penalties include jail time, who will risk it?


The rest of the world...

Stompix obviously meant "who will risk it [in Russia]". And it's a valid concern, because businesses won't be using it, there won't be exchanges to safely buy coins, and p2p trading is full of scammers. Yes, on a global scale Russia is insignificant to Bitcoin, it was never a major adopter of it anyway, but sadly 150 million people will have to overcome significant obstacles if they'll ever try to use Bitcoin. And maybe some of Russia's neighbors will decide to do the same, just because smaller countries often follow the bigger countries in new policies.
4613  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Itīs not about IF but WHEN - don't panic on: March 20, 2020, 03:50:44 AM
Panicking is one of the worst things you can do as an investor, when the price has fallen there's really not much you can do, the risk that it will fall further is always low, so it's unlikely that you will save yourself from further losses. People who sold below $4k must be really salty right now, as the price already increased by 50% from that.

We have been through MANY situations like this.
Why would that be the last?
So itīs just a question of TIME, soon or later we'll see green candles everywhere

To be honest, this is the first time Bitcoin experienced a global market crash, so it's not exactly the same as Bitcoin's own speculative crashes. But fundamentally nothing changed for Bitcoin, it's network still works, so in the long run this crash will have no effect.
4614  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Do you think Bitcoin has an identity crisis now? on: March 20, 2020, 03:19:54 AM
My assumption before this corona crisis was that in case of economy slowdown, people will sell off stocks and then they would need some safe haven to park their investments. In that case, crypto can come up as an alternative along with gold, oil and other commodities. But unfortunately, even when the oil prices are halved, money got wiped out of the crypto too.

Th biggest reason could be the small market which can easily be manipulated by a small degree of sell off in such economic condition.

Thus, replacing fiat would need much more than just a use case. It needs volume.

Well, now we know that cash is actually the safe haven that most investors choose. People here often hate fiat, especially the US dollar, but in short term it's very stable and predictable, and inflation really doesn't mean much on a scale of weeks and months.

And as for volume, it's a closed loop problem - there's little volume so the price is volatile, and because the price is volatile volume doesn't want to come - less people want to adopt it or trade it.
4615  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How bitcoins is helping during the lockdown on: March 20, 2020, 01:11:33 AM
Investing in Bitcoin when you are doing poorly financially is a really bad thing to do, you can't afford to gamble in that position. Even if Bitcoin goes to the moon in a few years, there will likely be a lot of uncertainty soon. Campaigns are also bad - they don't pay much and you have to be a high ranked member to join them, so it takes time and a lot of work to rank up (earn merit). You should have instead pointed him to crypto freelance platforms, but even those things aren't going to help much, the traffic over there is very small.

Bitcoin isn't a solution to any financial problems, it was created to solve only one problem - the problem of freedom. For example, if you want to leave a country and take your money with you, then Bitcoin can help.
4616  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: Another Corona Virus Tracking app malware founds it's way in Google Play on: March 19, 2020, 04:04:01 AM
My advice to people is to always look for a browser-based app first instead of installing stuff on their computers or mobile devices. In this case, there are websites that provide live data about the coronavirus, so there's no need to install anything. The browser is much more safer than apps, the attacks are very rare and hard to execute and browser vendors make very quick patches. Just don't use browser-based apps for anything sensitive like crypto wallets or password managers.
4617  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2020-03-09] Bitcoin Hashrate, Mining Difficulty Hit New Highs Inefficient Miner on: March 19, 2020, 03:59:08 AM
Generally speaking, mining is still profitable and I believe it will be for the next 10+ years, at least for those who have money to invest and can wait few years for ROI.

Mining will be profitable for as long as Bitcoin exists, because it was designed to be profitable - profit is the main incentive for mining, without it there would be no Bitcoin. If the price falls, miners would start leaving, difficulty would drop and a new equilibrium will be established. If difficulty gets too high, miners with more expensive electricity or less efficient ASICs will be forced to leave.
4618  Economy / Economics / Re: I think I Found The Reason For Bitcoin's Latest Crash on: March 19, 2020, 12:56:03 AM
Now take all reports about quantum computers breakthroughs over the last few years - I'm sure there's more than these two, and I'm sure most of them didn't cause any significant price reaction, and probably some of them were more significant that this last one that supposedly crashed the market. Because if it was like you say, then Bitcoin would have these 30-50% crashes many times a year.

I think it's clear to everyone that the stock market crash triggered Bitcoin's crash, especially since the same happened with gold and other markets.
4619  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin during pandemics on: March 19, 2020, 12:31:13 AM
MERS epidemic was small, so it didn't affect the markets much. Same goes for Ebola - the fact that Bitcoin dropped during that time is a coincidence, as Bitcoin was experiencing a bubble that popped at that time. Now the recent crash was different, because it caused a real panic on stock market, since all countries were taking drastic measures that hurt their economies. Bitcoin was always a risky asset, so this time when things actually got serious, investors started selling it, which triggered a big crash.
4620  Economy / Economics / Re: a disease or a virus or is there business in it? on: March 18, 2020, 11:32:25 PM
Is there any chance that when the corona virus appears, some scientists have discovered the antidote of the virus itself so that there is an element of intention regarding the spread of the corona virus because there is a business element in it so that the antidote for the corona virus is sought after by many people, this is like a film about spreading viruses that can kill and destroy the economy globally. what do you think about this?

You can come up with all sorts of theories about the disease - aliens, Russians, Chinese, CIA, Hillary Clinton and so on, but if you have to facts to back them up, these theories are worthless. And if you believe in things just because they sound right to you, you'll be just living in your own world.
Pages: « 1 ... 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 [231] 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 ... 471 »
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!