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4621  Economy / Economics / Re: What's it like to live on crypto instead of Banks? on: January 24, 2019, 09:49:17 PM
Imagine living your life without depending on Banks ever again. Using only cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, you can make your own income stream and use the coins earned to buy stuff from merchants who accept them. Every day, cryptocurrencies have been going closer towards full mainstream adoption. However, there are still some things which prevent crypto from being used over traditional payment systems we've been accustomed to for a long time.

Nonetheless, what's it like to live only on crypto instead central-bank issued fiat money? Cheesy

It is not something that an average Joe would agree to

First of all, you will have to use a whole host of tools to allow for the extreme volatility of Bitcoin (not even speaking of other cryptocurrencies). That's definitely doable but it requires skill and effort that is not just beyond the average Joe's ability but also beyond an average Bitcoin holder's capacity as well. Then, you won't be able to spend crypto directly most of the time, which means you are going to use a Bitcoin payment card. This is another can full of worms in its own right. Further, you have to secure your local storage, be it a desktop wallet, hardware device, or piece of paper, which can be a pain in the ass on its own. And the list likely goes on and on
4622  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin prices are being settled to explode ? on: January 24, 2019, 09:15:46 PM
From the last three months prices of Bitcoin are range bound and hovering around 3600$ .It seems that the prices are settled and waiting for the uptrend movement . Is it the start of the journey towards 20000$ again?

Rather a journey toward $2000

Kidding aside, don't have a lot of hope for 20k in the near future as we may not see that price tag in our lifetimes again. Well, maybe, I'm a bit pessimistic here but let's be realists as it is not possible to get there without extreme speculation. That means we will crash as quickly as we get there. So I'd prefer small but steady gains which are backed by real adoption. In this way, you can be sure that Bitcoin won't crash overnight. And Bitcoin is definitely not the only pebble on the beach. There is also Litecoin if you wonder
4623  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: BTC - The unbeaten King on: January 24, 2019, 05:58:35 PM
I am quite impressed to see the results. I already knew it would be bitcoin every year but the rank 2 and rank 3 were totally unexpected for me.
I thought Ethereum would stay in the 2nd position for long but little did I know that Litecoin and Ripple were equally good.
However Ripple managed to stay in the top 3 which was again quite expected. Surprised to see various other coins in the ranks 5 - 10.
Bitcoin yet again proves that no other coin stands a chance to defeat BTC despite all the dumps in the long bear market.

I'm not surprised at Ethereum being in the top three

But I'm not sure whether private coins like Ripple and EOS actually make it to the top. With public cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Litecoin it is easy to estimate their market cap, but how to do that with private coins? I mean it is not a secret how many bitcoins are mined and we can pretty much trust this figure. But what about Ripple, for example? How do we know that its market cap actually reflects the amount of coins in circulation? How can we be sure that the real supply of XRP matches the reported one?
4624  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / On Bitcoin Cash (again) on: January 24, 2019, 05:21:53 PM
This is a second installment in a series of posts about Bitcoin Cash and its fall. You can read the first part here

It is obvious by now that people behind Bitcoin Cash have created a lot of pain in the ass for Bitcoin and its successful and wide-scale adoption via defaming it, diluting its value, poisoning its veins, and by doing a lot of other things we might not even think of. Even if this pain is only short term (think of it as a catharsis of sorts) and in the long run it will actually be good for Bitcoin (as these bastards will never be part of Bitcoin again), it is not something which we should just write off or forget (as the damage is real)

Moreover, right now it looks like the price of Bitcoin Cash (you choose which exactly) is being artificially propped up. You can see that whenever Bitcoin starts to rise, its grows is instantly arrested by sell-offs. Yes, it may be people shorting Bitcoin (I short it too, just in case), but people should be shorting (or just selling) Bitcoin Cash as well, so shorts shouldn't matter much in this case. Rather, it is people like Ver and Wright skillfully selling their bitcoins and supporting Bitcoin Cash (their varieties) with the proceeds

So my question is, how long will it take till this shitcoin bites the dust finally and stops being such pain in the ass?
4625  Economy / Gambling / Re: p2ptrade.io-decentralized p2p trading platform.Based on smart contracts on: January 24, 2019, 03:58:15 PM
Can you help me understand a few things? Thank you

As I got it, you talk about trading and traders, right? So, first of all, what is this topic doing in the Gambling section of the forum? If it is more about gambling than trading (personally, I'm okay with that), maybe, you should make that point clear in the OP, though so far I don't see how it relates to gambling at all

Further, you mention about the function of tracking quotes, so my question is, what is the source of these quotes and how do we know that they are not rigged in the process? In other words, how can we check in practice if your system is actually "provably fair"?
4626  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why the Crypto Market Remains ‘Moderately Bearish’ in 2019 on: January 24, 2019, 01:26:40 PM
Shitcoins, despite their multitude, are inconsequential

I don't quite like such statement, far too broad IMHO.
You don't like a coin, call it shitcoin all you want. But the fact is that inside all those new coins, most of them have low technological value or usecases but SOME OF THEM have something unique. Be it usecases like ETH and ICO or technological differences like Monero or GRIN. It's easy to call everything not bitcoin shitcoin but it's unfair and innacurate. There is value everywhere including in the altcoins

I understand your pain

And to alleviate it somehow, let me tell you that I in no case consider all altcoins shitcoins. In fact, far from that. If that was your first thought, you can now safely abandon it. I don't know what ICO is unless you refer to Initial Coin Offering, of course (though in that case it is not clear why do you mention it after Ethereum), but to make things clear, I don't consider Ethereum a shitcoin, either. While it is certainly easy to call everything not bitcoin a shitcoin, I'm far from that as well. Quite the contrary, some altcoins are quite useful and can even be Bitcoin's proxies as a means of payment for daily necessities (for example, Litecoin)
4627  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will scarcity ever come into play? on: January 24, 2019, 01:00:46 PM
it is already in play and will continue to have a bigger impact as we move forward and we get more adoption. the way scarcity comes in is when we talk about supply and demand and when i say "move forward" i am talking about increasing adoption or demand for bitcoin. and since it is capped the price continues rising stronger than if there was no cap

That is in fact a double-edged sword

Which also cuts both ways at that. At first, scarcity may actually contribute to giving Bitcoin real value as that's one of the factors required for a currency to be money (even as a purely speculative asset). It kinda goes without saying and is easily understood by everyone and his dog. But then, after a certain point, scarcity becomes a hindrance since it starts to create imbalances and interferes with further expansion and adoption until it actually prevents this expansion and adoption from achieving their true potential determined by the real value of something (in this case, Bitcoin)
4628  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will Bitcoin Price Continue To Fall In 2019? (Sharing my thoughts) on: January 24, 2019, 10:47:36 AM
There is always possibility for price to go lower, just depends on different factors that will influence the market. Not it looks that market is standing still and there is no "fresh blood" comming so probably the price will stay in current range for a while. It seams that everyone is waiting what will happen next and how the situation will develope before taking any action. I don't expect some further fall at the moment but neither some significant recovery

That's an impossible combination

That is, you can't expect no further fall and at the same time not wait for a significant recovery (sorry for double negatives). Well, I don't mean that you literally can't, you can indeed, but if you base your trading decisions on these non-expectations, so to speak, you will likely get caught unprepared by a sudden price movement by far exceeding that lack of expectations when that time comes

Yeah, I definitely understand how it feels. The longer the market stays in a certain range, the more inclined you are to think that it will continue to trade sideways in the future. This is a delusion (or wishful thinking if you please). In fact, the longer market remains the same the closer we are to the point of a sudden dramatic change. It is universally true with respect to any speculative market
4629  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why the Crypto Market Remains ‘Moderately Bearish’ in 2019 on: January 24, 2019, 10:04:33 AM
Well, that means if you have bitcoin you sell bitcoin, and that's it, however if you have litecoin then you sell your litecoin and buy bitcoin with it, sell your bitcoin and get fiat. Which means litecoin is losing value by getting sold whereas bitcoin stays the same because it is both bought and sold. That is why whenever people get out of crypto in general bitcoin still drops but drops a lot less then the altcoins that are getting dumped

That's a poor man's logic

You could just as well say that if someone sells their litecoins for fiat, Litecoin loses value and that would do just fine as an explanation. In other words, you will have to leave no stone unturned if you actually wanted to find an exchange that would trade Bitcoin for fiat and would not trade Litecoin for the same fiat at the same time. Obviously, it is not the case with most shitcoins, but who cares about them and their holders anyway?

he just used a bad example (litecoin) to explain what has been also explained before. it is not about the most popular and the oldest altcoin which happens to be listed on major exchanges that trade it with fiat. it is about other 2500 altcoins, specially the big altcoins that are being traded with large volumes (get dumped on large scale too) but don't have fiat market or if they do, they don't have it on major exchanges. for example someone who uses Coinbase as his bitcoin trading platform and Binance for his altcoins, has to sell for bitcoin, then transfer that bitcoin to coinbase and sell for fiat. and that is why bitcoin drops when there is a gigantic altcoin dump going on

Shitcoins, despite their multitude, are inconsequential

Even if their numbers are in the thousands, their effect on Bitcoin's price is likely in the thousandth of a percent. In any case, this effect wouldn't be greater than the margin of error provided Bitcoin is actually used as a conversion device (which itself adds another level of doubt). People with shitcoins use exchanges where you can exchange them directly for fiat without the hassle of multiple conversions (for example, Cryptopia)

If anything, it is Bitcoin's price moving a couple of percentage points with shitcoins crashing like there's no tomorrow
4630  Economy / Economics / Re: Blockchain study finds 0.00% success rate in 43 cases on: January 24, 2019, 09:08:51 AM
Well, are you sure about Bitcoin growing in price and number of users?

In respect to price, we can see that it is not growing (and far from that), so you kinda have to check your sources.

a regression of all price history shows an uptrend, so yeah, it's growing (until proven otherwise). you would have to cherry pick and ignore pre-2018 data to say it's not growing

Your approach clearly demonstrates why it should be taken with a grain of salt and followed with caution (read, avoided)

Basically, you simply look at the stats without taking into account the underlying forces that move the markets. I suspect that in the dotcom era there were enough people who also looked at the data when everything had already begun collapsing and thought along the same lines ("you cherry pick and ignore previous data"). If it worked like that, we would all have been billionaires by now, while in actuality most of us are hapless bagholders
4631  Economy / Speculation / Re: The market looks boring 2019 on: January 24, 2019, 08:59:20 AM
Indeed if boring means stable for you.

Halving being in 2020 there is no reson to see anything spectacular this year.
Probably a slow and long rise of BTC price for the next months. After we find the real bottom.
I'd say about 3k$.

But it's not boring, it's great! You don't need to see price changes of 30% every week, that's not very good for a market... It attracts speculators and traders but it doesn't fit well with real users.

Keep speculators at bay and bring the users.

it sounds cliché, but it's true. in a long term distribution cycle like this, the speculators are a huge drag on price. they're not buying coins to hoard or transact with (removing supply). they're buying coins to sell higher. so in a big downtrend, they represent supply and resistance---either selling into bounces to cut losses, or selling into crashes out of capitulation

Removing supply without actual adoption mostly leads to volatility

That is, it doesn't lead to price growth as many erroneously think or assume. Interestingly, it works for both ends of the price stick, i.e. when the price is low and when the price is high due to supply squeezes (look here and here if you feel interested). You may ask that, technically speaking, real adoption also leads to a diminishing supply available for speculation which in turn should also cause an increase in volatility. But this your home assignment to answer why it doesn't
4632  Economy / Economics / Re: Blockchain study finds 0.00% success rate in 43 cases on: January 23, 2019, 08:22:19 PM
In respect to price, we can see that it is not growing (and far from that), so you kinda have to check your sources.
Thank you for pointing that out, because if you didn't I would have.  The statement that "bitcoin increases day by day" or words to that effect get parroted all over the forum, even when it's obvious that it's not true

OP is late with his post (article) at least for a couple of years

As far as blockchain in general, I don't hear anything in real life about how it's changing the way people do things and I'm not sure if it's going to solve any problems that need solving.  Granted, I'm not an expert in blockchain tech--not even close--but it's been around for 10 years now and you'd think that corporations/governments/individuals would have latched onto it by now if it would be to their advantage

This is my thought exactly (which I decided not to dwell on in my post)

Nevertheless, I can give you one example where the blockchain technology can make a difference, actually a life-changing one, though it doesn't have anything to do with corporations in particular and business in general. The blockchain technologies can really help with the electoral system by making it totally transparent and incorruptible (we just need its Satoshi Nakamoto to pop up). It kinda goes without saying that the corrupted governments will never agree to a possibility of tamper-proof elections, but that's a different question

Haven't read the article OP linked to yet, but I'm going to right now.

Edit:  Read it, and I liked this quote:
Quote
As with every bubble, whether it's Tulip Mania or the Californian Gold Rush, most investors lose their shirts while a fortune is being made by associated services – the advisors and marketeers can bank their cash, even if there's no gold in the river

It's in fact an age-old adage about selling shovels in a gold rush
4633  Economy / Economics / Re: Blockchain study finds 0.00% success rate in 43 cases on: January 23, 2019, 07:03:49 PM
The article: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/11/30/blockchain_study_finds_0_per_cent_success_rate/

My thoughts:

People were telling "Blockchain, not Bitcoin" for so many years, but the reality is the exact opposite. Bitcoin's technology is showing so many progress, we have adopted SegWit, LN is on mainnet for a year, even though it's still in beta, developers are discussing potential features. Bitcoin keeps growing, both in price and in number of users.
Meanwhile, blockchain fails to show any noticeable results during the last 3-4 years, so many talking, so many millions invested in ICO's, so many money spent on test and research and barely anyone actually uses it.

Well, are you sure about Bitcoin growing in price and number of users?

In respect to price, we can see that it is not growing (and far from that), so you kinda have to check your sources. But how do you know that the number of Bitcoin users is actually increasing? What metric are you looking at specifically? Number of wallets (addresses)? Given that any user can create any number of addresses, it is a useless and utterly misleading metric

Other that that, I agree that Bitcoin is the epitome of the blockchain, while cryptocurrencies in general are likely the best use cases that this technology could potentially have. That's why they are evolving while the blockchain doesn't (outside cryptocurrencies)
4634  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Contest with $30,000 in GUARANTEED PRIZES now live! on: January 23, 2019, 06:33:54 PM
okay, let's say you're right and all the accounts you've blocked belong to me. But from these accounts shall be withdrawn not a single Satoshi on this I didn't bring you a loss, and therefore I'm not considered a thief even in the criminal law, as neither of which were stolen. And the thief in this case is you, because you stole my money, which I invested in my accounts

That's hilarious

You know, in almost every country there is an idea or concept of an attempted murder. It basically comes down to you trying to kill someone but being stopped by somebody or something. And then you are pleading innocent in court on the account that you didn't actually kill anyone. Obviously, it won't help you as it doesn't matter since such was your intention. This is what the criminal law actually says. But please don't say you were there just for kicks
4635  Economy / Speculation / Re: The market looks boring 2019 on: January 23, 2019, 05:51:54 PM
Don't be fooled by this seeming calm as it is the calm before the storm, always
Do you mean the price could just dip once again to $2k?

As I say, beware of still waters, silent dogs, and boring markets

If anything, the current "boring" market is in fact quite scary. The same shit happened in September through October (and early November) last year, when the price had been stagnating in a similar pattern in the 6-7k range. And within two weeks (or so) it crashed 2 times. Folks say that it was because of the hash wars but personally, I think they were only a trigger, if at all. So let's all hope and pray that the price won't crash lower
4636  Economy / Speculation / Re: The American doomsday by Tom Lee on: January 23, 2019, 05:39:50 PM
First of all, people who live there still need bolivar so that is the answer of your question. As long as shops and stores there require bolivar instead of bitcoin people there will need bolivar, there is no question of "who needs bolivar" because that is a nations currency, its like saying "who needs dollars", I understand bitcoin is much more global and will  always be more global but bolivar will always be the national currency for them and that is important

Technically, we don't know how things really are in Venezuela

I mean, with respect to your assumption that people still need bolivars for everyday needs. But I can tell you how it was in other countries that went through the periods of hyperinflation in their past. It is exactly as assumed here, with shops and merchants refusing to accept local currency. It doesn't of course mean that they are ready to accept cryptocurrencies, but the latter is rather a problem of cryptocurrencies, not merchants as such (let's be honest here, there is still plenty of room for improvement)

Typically, the US dollar is being asked for payment in these circumstances but it can be some other stable currency which is circulating in the area. And if the local government is unable to efficiently squash hyperinflation, the end result is just that, i.e. local currency being completely abandoned, at first by simple people and then by the government itself. The most notorious and well-known example of such an outcome is Zimbabwe (and their Zimbabwean dollar), but it is definitely not the only one
4637  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why the Crypto Market Remains ‘Moderately Bearish’ in 2019 on: January 23, 2019, 04:32:49 PM
Well, that means if you have bitcoin you sell bitcoin, and that's it, however if you have litecoin then you sell your litecoin and buy bitcoin with it, sell your bitcoin and get fiat. Which means litecoin is losing value by getting sold whereas bitcoin stays the same because it is both bought and sold. That is why whenever people get out of crypto in general bitcoin still drops but drops a lot less then the altcoins that are getting dumped

That's a poor man's logic

You could just as well say that if someone sells their litecoins for fiat, Litecoin loses value and that would do just fine as an explanation. In other words, you will have to leave no stone unturned if you actually wanted to find an exchange that would trade Bitcoin for fiat and would not trade Litecoin for the same fiat at the same time. Obviously, it is not the case with most shitcoins, but who cares about them and their holders anyway?
4638  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Contest with $30,000 in GUARANTEED PRIZES now live! on: January 23, 2019, 04:19:17 PM
4. In addition to Deposit, Multiply, lottry ... where do web owners benefit from paying users who only do FREE ROLL every hour

I think I can answer this question

Back in the day, when FreeBitco.in was only a Bitcoin faucet, their main stream of revenue came from ads by Google. It was before they added the dice part. Right now, it looks like they are generating enough profits from it to allow free rolls for everyone without any ads. I think this is a unique and distinguishing feature of the site and if they disabled it, they would lose a lot of clients since their dice is nothing of the ordinary, honestly speaking, and can't be compared to the industry leaders like PrimeDice, for example (though I don't dice a lot lately and your opinion may differ from mine)
4639  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Contest with $30,000 in GUARANTEED PRIZES now live! on: January 23, 2019, 02:33:04 PM
It is proportional to your total free-roll winnings. Every time you wager the % towards the next level goes up and every time you do a free-roll it goes down. Hi-Lo game is weighted 1x, jackpots are 4x and lottery tickets bought are 20x.

Thanks for the answer, but I still can't imagine even approximately how many tickets should be bought to increase my FREE BTC rewards by 1k sats. I just bought 1,000 tickets for 2k sats, and "4.1119% achieved towards the next +0.00000056 BTC bonus" has changed to "4.4007% ..." That's it?

Was jackg he right saying:

~ I'm guessing it'll be a few billion ...

It depends on how many free rolls you have made so far

And obviously it depends on your current tier. So if you are anywhere close to the cherished amount, you will have a lot more free rolls to make as well as buy a lot more tickets to get to the next level. Though I agree with you, the statement like "play jackpots in MULTIPLY BTC to increase your bonus 4x faster and buy lottery tickets to increase it 20x faster" is not quite clear about the base that we should multiply the number of our tickets with, i.e. what is to be multiplied by 20x exactly. A bit of clarity on this matter definitely won't hurt

I wagered 1.5btc to get a 1000 bonus but I have done a lot of free rolls.

But 1.5/20=0.075 I wagered with a starting balance of 0.03 so...
But that means it'd be about 7.5m tickets for me...

Okay, it is something more real than a few billions

So if one ticket costs 2 satoshi (last time I checked), 7.5M of them will cost you 15M satoshi, which is 0.15 BTC if I'm not mistaken. If you make 10 rolls per day, with 1000 satoshi you get 10k satoshi, and just to break even you will have to free roll for 1500 days on end or about 4 years. On the other hand, free rolls also give you tickets, though they are "lost" every week unless you can use them to boost your bonus somehow. Let me know if I missed a variable or two here
4640  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in - Contest with $30,000 in GUARANTEED PRIZES now live! on: January 23, 2019, 02:04:06 PM
It is proportional to your total free-roll winnings. Every time you wager the % towards the next level goes up and every time you do a free-roll it goes down. Hi-Lo game is weighted 1x, jackpots are 4x and lottery tickets bought are 20x.

Thanks for the answer, but I still can't imagine even approximately how many tickets should be bought to increase my FREE BTC rewards by 1k sats. I just bought 1,000 tickets for 2k sats, and "4.1119% achieved towards the next +0.00000056 BTC bonus" has changed to "4.4007% ..." That's it?

Was jackg he right saying:

~ I'm guessing it'll be a few billion ...

It depends on how many free rolls you have made so far

And obviously it depends on your current tier. So if you are anywhere close to the cherished amount, you will have a lot more free rolls to make as well as buy a lot more tickets to get to the next level. Though I agree with you, the statement like "play jackpots in MULTIPLY BTC to increase your bonus 4x faster and buy lottery tickets to increase it 20x faster" is not quite clear about the base that we should multiply the number of our tickets with, i.e. what is to be multiplied by 20x exactly. A bit of clarity on this matter definitely won't hurt
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