Go check the official Monero thread and then have a look at the sister threads
And why should people follow your thread instead?
Don't be so aggressive - if you followed those threads yourself, you would have seen me there many times  (I am not compelling anyone to follow my threads, people do it voluntarily!) |
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I moved my calculations about Monero distribution to a new thread. |
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There are already 2 Economics threads, why do we need a third one?
Be kind and list all the Monero threads with links and short introduction as to why I/anyone should be following them in your next post or stop cluttering this one!  (Which is the reason altcoin threads are a pain to read) |
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It is always good to see how you rank compared to others in owning a coin. But how? With Monero, the blockchain provides no help in determining balances. So the distribution of holdings must be constructed purely theoretically. What we use in the analysis of this post is just the following information: - Number of XMR (about 2.2 million when this was done); - Assumption that the distribution follows power law for the highest 3% of the holders (it does if we are talking about general wealth) - the power law distribution has the property that the owners of 100-200 coins collectively own the same number of coins as the ones owning 200-400 coins etc. But their number is 2x higher (because the other group was 2x richer), and the density is 4x more (because not only there was 2x the number of people, but also the bracket is in absolute terms only half the size); - Below that, the distribution forms a nice bulge centered around the median holding and drops quickly towards insignificant holdings; I have calculated 2 possibilities that give the result for both 5,200 and 13,200 holders. The results are presented in logarithmic brackets that are 0.333 log10 units wide (unlike my usual precision of 1 log unit, this gives 3 times more information). The exact form of the very top (holdings of the top-5 or so holders) affects the distribution somewhat, but with XMR it cannot be deduced either directly or statistically. I have assumed that the Case A scenario has a large outlier but Case B does not have it. Case A - 5,200 holders: min max avg #ppl tot.xmr
17 280 000 1 280 000
16 100 000 - 215 443 142 600 1 171 034
15 46 416 - 100 000 66 189 3 171 034
14 21 544 - 46 416 30 722 6 171 034
13 10 000 - 21 544 14 260 12 171 034
12 4 642 - 10 000 6 619 26 171 034
11 2 154 - 4 642 3 072 56 171 034
10 1 000 - 2 154 1 426 120 171 034
9 464 - 1 000 662 300 198 468
8 215 - 464 307 750 230 301
7 100 - 215 143 1 349 192 413
6 46 - 100 66 1 349 89 310
5 22 - 46 31 750 23 030
4 10 - 22 14 300 4 276
3 5 - 10 7 120 794
2 2 - 5 3 36 111
1 1 - 2 1 11 15
Largest holdings: 1. 280,000 XMR 2. 147,000 XMR 3. 80,000 XMR 4. 65,000 XMR 5. 50,000 XMR top holding: 280,000 XMR top 10: 22,500 XMR top 100: 2,200 XMR top 1000: 285 XMR # of holders: 5,188 avg holding: 427 XMR == 1.92 BTC == 1,211 USD median holding: 100 XMR half of the coins belong to 43 people Case B - 13,200 holders: min max avg #ppl tot.xmr
17
16 100 000 - 215 443 142 600 1,2 165 745
15 46 416 - 100 000 66 189 2,5 165 745
14 21 544 - 46 416 30 722 5,4 165 745
13 10 000 - 21 544 14 260 12 165 745
12 4 642 - 10 000 6 619 25 165 745
11 2 154 - 4 642 3 072 54 165 745
10 1 000 - 2 154 1 426 116 165 745
9 464 - 1 000 662 291 192 329
8 215 - 464 307 726 223 179
7 100 - 215 143 1 816 258 976
6 46 - 100 66 3 632 240 412
5 22 - 46 31 3 632 111 589
4 10 - 22 14 1 816 25 898
3 4,6 - 10,0 6,6 726 4 808
2 2,2 - 4,6 3,1 291 893
1 1,0 - 2,2 1,4 87 124
Largest holdings: 1. 137,000 XMR 2. 80,000 XMR 3. 65,000 XMR 4. 50,000 XMR top holding: 137,000 XMR top 10: 20,500 XMR top 100: 2,150 XMR top 1000: 270 XMR # of holders: 13,234 avg holding: 167 XMR == 0.75 BTC == 473 USD median holding: 46 XMR half of the coins belong to 150 people. |
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Dear sirs, The thread is intended for analytical discussion on Monero distribution and other economics. Please do not use it for chat. There are other threads about Monero, for cross reference they will be listed here when brought to my attention. Many thanks to cAPSLOCK for taking the responsibility to update the Monero Community Hall of Fame thread, which leaves my time available for these analyses. Originally my intention was to buy only as much XMR as I hold BTC. (The XMR:BTC ratio of 1:1, which means that no matter which one goes to zero, as long as the other one captures all its value, you don't lose or gain anything). Then after realizing that I spend about as much time thinking about Monero than I think about Bitcoin, the 0.3% holding did not seem justified any more. Either I should stop thinking about XMR (did not work - try it!) or buy more of it. A lot more After hearing that many are positioning such that they hold 100:1 (XMR:BTC), which is about 25% in XMR, or even 400:1, which is more than half in XMR, I also set myself up to acquire a larger position. That was a contributing factor in the rise last week but I am not even nearly done. It just does not feel right to sell XMR to receive BTC when you are already as loaded with BTC as I am. All the other coins are shitcoins, so not worth buying. The expectation that others realize Monero's beauty after me, is just a repetition of how bitcoin started rising when I had already positioned myself. Next post will be all about Monero's coin distribution between holdings of different size. I went deeper than with BTC, and the results are interesting |
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If even 25% of these contracts go bad, you are talking about $250 or so trillion needed to be covered. ( this is if the total is $1 quadrillion) The global GDP is only 55 to 60 trillion a year. The definition of economic depression is a 5% drop in GDP over 2 consecutive years.[/i]
To whom do they need to pay?
If we, the taxpayers, are the ones receiving the reward of our "good" bets, then we should be happy with the 250,000,000 million, since that would about double the wealth of every taxpayer in the world! If we, the taxpayers, are not receiving the money, why should we be held accountable for paying "Bank A" the amount equal to all our net worth combined, especially as the counterparty, Bank B, that is on the winning side, is provably owned by the same people as "Bank A"? If my left pocket makes a bet, valued at the size of the world, with my right pocket, on the condition that whichever pocket wins, the rest of the world must pay everything that they have to this pocket, well, let's just say I have been hospitalized for less |
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Following Still wondering when I get my gold coins in the mail The orange numbers are coming before any gold |
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Thank me for starting it and for the short tenure - yes, by donating to the dev team |
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Just a small update on Monero (XMR): - I had been buying it during the uptrend so that my buying represented about 5% of the total volume. - It went a little parabolic 2 days ago, but yesterday failed the expectations so the price collapsed. - I am in a retreat (not Malla this time ) a few days, hardly online. - Because of a large number of bagholders whose destiny is to buy high and sell cheap, I expect the consolidation to continue a few days also. - It's important IMO that 0.00365 (2nd fibonacci from 0.00231->0.00581) is not violated, because that would question the legitimacy of the uptrend, and lead to increased selling towards lower lows - something which us whales can prevent (but do we want?) - I am a long term supporter of Monero, which is a great coin. |
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Because of popular opinion, I don't  In the last conference, the people there voted in favor of a castle-like castle instead of a palatial one. So the conferences this august (8-18, thread in the appropriate event section), and late september, are still in candlelight. The outbuildings with their 11 hotel rooms, 4 living rooms, conference room, kitchen, sauna and altogether 9 bathrooms, are in very good condition as some of them were built last month, and some of them undergo a renovation this/next month. Question: do you still own that physical silver? I remember talking to you some time ago, I'm was not decided 100% but now I think I should buy some. What was the price you were selling at? I have the silver but it's a good % of my portfolio now. If you come to Malla, Estonia to take delivery, I can sell you 500oz in Maples. The price would be about 15% markup to the bulk Royal Canadian mint pricing (which I cannot find anywhere...  ) I don't think I can come soon. I was thinking of shipping something like 100oz. If silver is now a big part of your portfolio, does it mean you have mostly sold your bitcoins? "good" in the sense of "fitting". I don't want to sell because it is such a small part 100oz is not worth the hassle for me currently  |
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Because of popular opinion, I don't In the last conference, the people there voted in favor of a castle-like castle instead of a palatial one. So the conferences this august (8-18, thread in the appropriate event section), and late september, are still in candlelight. The outbuildings with their 11 hotel rooms, 4 living rooms, conference room, kitchen, sauna and altogether 9 bathrooms, are in very good condition as some of them were built last month, and some of them undergo a renovation this/next month. Question: do you still own that physical silver? I remember talking to you some time ago, I'm was not decided 100% but now I think I should buy some. What was the price you were selling at? I have the silver but it's a good % of my portfolio now. If you come to Malla, Estonia to take delivery, I can sell you 500oz in Maples. The price would be about 15% markup to the bulk Royal Canadian mint pricing (which I cannot find anywhere... ) |
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Because of popular opinion, I don't In the last conference, the people there voted in favor of a castle-like castle instead of a palatial one. So the conferences this august (8-18, thread in the appropriate event section), and late september, are still in candlelight. The outbuildings with their 11 hotel rooms, 4 living rooms, conference room, kitchen, sauna and altogether 9 bathrooms, are in very good condition as some of them were built last month, and some of them undergo a renovation this/next month. |
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As Bitcoin has become more centralized, they will strangle it, which we can see happening if we look at any metrics that measure the rate of growth, e.g. the market cap rate of growth has slowed which is what I showed that it is log-logistic not logistic as should be normal for technology adoption. (note Risto doesn't accept or agree with my curve fit, so we will have to wait to see if it was correct or not)[/b] It is so tiring (and wasting my time which takes away from doing real work that could help us) to respond to slander by ignorant posters due to their ignorance. Your log-logistic fit would have been perfect in late 2012, showing the slowing of growth and maturation of the technology. So having this analysis, you would have sold all your bitcoins at $13 or at least never bought any. Right? So one of us now holds bitcoins at $623, because his model was correct and already has an astounding 94.5% Rsq-coefficient (far higher than any log-logistic fit to the bitcoin 5-year price data). Bad models have real world consequences to those who choose to follow them. The weakness of yours is that it is obvious that the saturation point of bitcoin is in 100s of millions or billions of users, and you are interpreting random noise to mean a secular slowing of trend at the point when the actual slowing of the adoption rate is still 3 orders of magnitude away! |
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I wish I could help you manage it.
It is very easy for you to start a new thread with the same name, (make it self-moderated to be safe), and copy the OP from this thread to your new one. Voilá! If you feel any burden to do it, I am happy to relinguish the responsibility! I suggest someone considers to take the privilege of updating the list away from me. I will need to be away for the weekend (gulp!), and also afterwards I easily believe that someone else would be more suitable for the task. So if interested, ask me!I don't have the access to the dev accounts (or any proprietary information) and did not seek special permission from the devs before starting the list. My analysis shows the coin has 2,700 owners that have 100+ coins (so are eligible to donate 1 XMR). If we assume that 5% actually do it, the thread with ~130 entries is still a very compact task |
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This is the hallmark of dying pump & dump coin like Bitcoin.
You never fail to make my day  |
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If I designed a currency, never would I make the initial distribution so much higher than the long-term.
If the currency starts from zero, there has to be a high initial daily inflation to get it going. If it does not start from zero, it is called "premine" That is true but what is the second 6 months debasement for Monero? I will be happy to mea culpa if it is not that high? Or more specifically is the nominal block reward declining? Yes, nominal is declining. And percentage is rapidly declining. After 12 months the percentage is something like 0.2% per day instead of 1.1% as it is now. and I don't buy it and it will die.
You not buying a coin does not mean a coin will die. Seriously  |
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If I designed a currency, never would I make the initial distribution so much higher than the long-term.
If the currency starts from zero, there has to be a high initial daily inflation to get it going. If it does not start from zero, it is called "premine" and I don't buy it and it will die. |
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Monero is the clear leader of the group now, and is soon to be well established among the second tier of cryptocoins (first tier of altcoins).
I happen to know more large and astute bitcoin holders than most of us. It is unbelievable that 75% of the people that I am talking about (holders of 1,000-100,000 BTC) are between "curious" to "very positive" towards Monero, even though the same guys generally don't own any altcoins (the small volume makes it difficult to own them anyway and guys of this caliber usually see where there is value and where there is not). |
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Thank you for the explanation. So what is it that you want to have listed? |
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