Interesting battle about to happen. On the one hand we have the price touching the downtrend line and falling back. On the other hand we have a pending 90 day MA golden cross which could provide support for breaking the downtrend.
Which will prevail? I think the downtrend will prevail but it is not clear cut. If I was trading right now, I would selling above $7,200 in preparation for the price going down, but putting buy stops in the ~$7,400 range just in case I am wrong and the downtrend is cleanly broken.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.ibb.co%2Fig03ze%2FMA_Cross.png&t=663&c=R4M3Yv5GYxcVUA)
However, breaking the downtrend brings us closer to a golden cross on the 30 week MA. Which would be an auspicious event and could signal the end of 2018 bear market.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.ibb.co%2FkaPP5K%2F30_Week_MA.png&t=663&c=Ln-SV9cYWdScmg)
Except we had a golden cross in June 2014 which led to nothing. It took two more golden crosses in 2015 for us to finally stabilise and start the climb out.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.ibb.co%2FdXzrkK%2FMA_Cross_History.png&t=663&c=nWjZcaED3zZX8g)
So following the 2014 pattern, I remain bearish but not without hope if we can break the down trend line in the next 4 days.