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4641  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: July 17, 2014, 09:24:47 PM
http://imgur.com/TYsKlqZ
4642  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Monero Economy on: July 17, 2014, 07:26:57 PM
Some have murmured against the distribution, but nobody has offered any alternative parameters!
- Should I make a more top-heavy one with a smaller number of holders in the lower rungs? Or less top-heavy?
- Should it be wider so that there are more holders in both extremes and less in the middle? Or the opposite?
- Are there 100,000+ holders that I don't know of? (power law = yes)
I would be surprised if there were so many as 100k.  The more I think about it the more I would guess your total is probably good, though I would also guess it will be multiplied shortly if the current trend continues.
What will be multiplied? The number of holders? If that's the case, the dilution must happen from somewhere --- ahh.. it doesn't - that's why the daily 1% inflation is good, it lets everyone keep their coins and still accommodates new holders!

Is 1% inflation THAT big ?

Why people are so scared ? 1% seems really small when you look at the current block distribution.


We are talking about the present inflation rate, which is about 1.1% per DAY. But it seems to achieve the goals smoothly - ownership is increasing, without the need to coerce the coins from existing holders (which leads to pump, dump and abandon).
4643  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Monero Economy on: July 17, 2014, 06:33:26 PM


Some have murmured against the distribution, but nobody has offered any alternative parameters!

- Should I make a more top-heavy one with a smaller number of holders in the lower rungs? Or less top-heavy?
- Should it be wider so that there are more holders in both extremes and less in the middle? Or the opposite?
- Are there 100,000+ holders that I don't know of? (power law = yes)

I would be surprised if there were so many as 100k.  The more I think about it the more I would guess your total is probably good, though I would also guess it will be multiplied shortly if the current trend continues.

What will be multiplied? The number of holders? If that's the case, the dilution must happen from somewhere --- ahh.. it doesn't - that's why the daily 1% inflation is good, it lets everyone keep their coins and still accommodates new holders!

4644  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: --* Monero Community Hall of Fame *-- on: July 17, 2014, 06:02:15 PM
I wish I could help you manage it.

It is very easy for you to start a new thread with the same name, (make it self-moderated to be safe), and copy the OP from this thread to your new one. Voilá! If you feel any burden to do it, I am happy to relinguish the responsibility! Smiley
4645  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Monero Economy on: July 17, 2014, 05:04:15 PM
Dear sirs,

I made some calculations on the distribution of XMR balances using the same methodology that I use in BTC wealth distribution calculations. Please refer to the link for methodology.

- I use 1 XMR as the cutoff grade since it is a nice round figure and its value is reasonable to be the lower threshold of what can be considered an investment.
- Other than the cutoff, there are the parameters that specify the:
  * largest holding;
  * number of holders;
  * j-value ("wideness" of the distribution);
  * to which extent power law applies to the high end (increasing the number and share of large holders).

To compose the result, we need to set the parameters. With any coin, especially XMR which is anonymous, it is impossible to know the parameters. So they must be estimated. The laws of statistics and the law of large numbers dictate that the actual holdings between the endpoints do conform to the calculated result, if the endpoints (parameters) are estimated correctly.

Estimate 1:

Parameters:
- Largest holding: 100,000 XMR
- number of holders: 6,800
- j value = 0.58
- power law: no

Results:
10,000 or more: 23 holders
1,000 - 10,000:   435  <=half of the XMR are owned by this group
100 - 1,000:    2,300
10 - 100:    3,000
1 - 10:     1,050.

Questions, comments, what parameters to change in order to get a more realistic calculation?

Some have murmured against the distribution, but nobody has offered any alternative parameters!

- Should I make a more top-heavy one with a smaller number of holders in the lower rungs? Or less top-heavy?
- Should it be wider so that there are more holders in both extremes and less in the middle? Or the opposite?
- Are there 100,000+ holders that I don't know of? (power law = yes)
4646  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: --* Monero Community Hall of Fame *-- on: July 17, 2014, 12:57:27 PM
I'm pretty sure that's already been done, if and when he finds this thread. Sad

Whom should I inform?

Quote
Working on my second crate though.

Smiley
4647  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: --* Monero Community Hall of Fame *-- on: July 17, 2014, 11:39:08 AM

I think that advances me to the top level as of 4/29 if I understand the rules correctly


Yes it does, but the levels reach infinity so somebody can overtake you by donating more Smiley
4648  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: --* Monero Community Hall of Fame *-- on: July 17, 2014, 11:38:08 AM
All until now have been added.
4649  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: --* Monero Community Hall of Fame *-- on: July 17, 2014, 11:11:31 AM
For the long-term donators with many donations:

Please count your own ranks according to the rules, so that all I need to do is to copy-paste the information Smiley

I have other things to do as well...Wink
4650  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: --* Monero Community Hall of Fame *-- on: July 17, 2014, 10:03:51 AM
How does the GPU miner bounties stack up ?

For every bounty you pledged, you convert the sum to XMR using the exchange rate of the day when pledged.
They may only be added to your total the day when you have paid the amount.

Using the days when pledged, you keep a running total. Every time it exceeds the dan threshold (of 20, 50, 100, 200, etc XMR), you advance a rank and the advance date to the previous rank is recorded.

Quote
Also add me for a 200 XMR donation : Please Confirm so I can send , thank you   

Added.
4651  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - Secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - Now on Hitbtc.com on: July 17, 2014, 09:08:13 AM
Considerations concerning the ongoing XMR rally in Poloniex

Fundamentally, XMR looks good, because its support among top BTCers is stronger than the support of any other coin. This provides the long-term rationale for investing into a coin that is not cheap, has high issuance coming for the nearest years, and is practically useless.

Medium-term, the price had declined to a point where there were almost no asks, almost no bids (BTC60@[0-0.0023]), and no volume (BTC70 per day). The upturn was inevitable.

Now we are 3.7 days in the uptrend and the price is roughly double what it was at the low point (0.0046 vs. 0.0023). The bid support has more than doubled, however (BTC200 vs. BTC60). The bid support has reached values of BTC300+ at times.

The volume was lethargic at first, testifying to the fact that despite the rapid percentage rise in price, the sellers were not interested in shedding their stashes. Only the last 24 hours volume has been brisk (BTC420 compared to BTC130 in the first days of the uptrend).

The rise has roughly followed a pattern where daily highs are set at about midnight GMT. Thus it is likely that the buyers are from the U.S., because this is the prime playtime for them, or perhaps it's the time when both Europeans and East coast can play together.

There is a clear zig-zag pattern of higher daily highs and higher lows. As follows (bottom row is the first day of the uptrend and top is today):

427   (460->650(?))
329   500
285   390
260   349
231   320.

Yesterday saw more rapid price appreciation that the previous days. The nature of crypto booms is that this (superexponential growth, meaning that the percentage increase at least equals the previous day's percentage increase) will likely continue, until there is a breather at some level and then possibly the uptrend resumes. Therefore I predict 0.0065 to be achieved today. Yesterday my private prediction was 0.0044-0.0045 but later the same day there was another upsurge to 0.0050.

I don't see much resistance until we near the previous top (0.0100), because many holders will undoubtedly bet on a double top and plan to sell early. Others undoubtedly want to see XMR price making new highs and since there are many rich Bitcoin holders in the latter camp, the battle is going to be epic Smiley

Walls have been used quite liberally, highest ones have been about BTC100; and BTC40 is commonplace in both buy and sell side. There is yet no instance that a fakish buy wall has been snatched by a determined seller (some buy walls are fake though in the sense that they are pulled in a downturn). And even if there were, all buyers are solidly on the black with gains up to 100% in less than 4 full days.

The sell walls, on the other hand, may be snatched up to 10% away (like 0.0045 was bought when market was at 0.0041). Yesterday saw at least 4 instances of this happening with the BTC15-BTC50 walls in 0.0040, 0.0045 and 0.0050. For those who actually want to sell XMR, this is a paradise, since merely by setting a wall higher than the market, it will be taken. (If you can take the fact that price is rising 15-25% per day  Wink)

Disclosure: I own XMR and my position has been increasing every day during the uptrend, and also most days during the previous downtrend. It has not decreased in any day. This disclosure may not be used in any way when determining tax and other liabilities, since "I" is undefined and may refer to any entity controlled or influenced by me under any jurisdiction and any official requests for information concerning them will be answered by lawful basis only.
4652  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: --* Monero Community Hall of Fame *-- on: July 17, 2014, 08:23:41 AM
I want to donate 5 XMR. Do I just send it to the donation adress? How will you know it's from me?

Just send it, we will believe you. It is only when you claim to have sent for example 100 XMR, there needs to be some proof.

I will add you straight away! Smiley
4653  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Monero Economy on: July 17, 2014, 08:11:41 AM
These numbers have not imploded gold, and there will be far far higher XMR lost per year than gold misplaced or lost per year.

Gold's block reward is adjustable. In times of low population growth and low economic activity, it is very near to zero. It can also reach upwards of 2% per year in boom times. Since antiquity, it has averaged only 0.3%, much less than is probably needed for network security alone.

On the other hand, the fiat regime since 1971 shows the terrible mislocations of capital caused by the "contained" inflation averaging 6% per year.

0.7% per year => monetary base doubles in 100 years, goes up a 1000-fold in 1000 years.
1.4% per year => monetary base quadruples in 100 years, goes up a 1,000,000fold in 1000 years.
2.1% per year => monetary base goes up 700% in 100 years, a billionfold in 1000 years.
2.8% per year => monetary base goes up 16-fold in 100 years, a trillionfold in 1000 years.
3.5% per year => monetary base goes up 32-fold in 100 years, a quadrillionfold in 1000 years.

Anyone who takes the time to read the above list, realizes that no astute whale is going to buy things whose inflation is more than ~1.5% per year unless they are for short term speculation only, or there is another compelling consideration except inflation.

4654  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: July 17, 2014, 08:08:33 AM
These numbers have not imploded gold, and there will be far far higher XMR lost per year than gold misplaced or lost per year.

Gold's block reward is adjustable. In times of low population growth and low economic activity, it is very near to zero. It can also reach upwards of 2% per year in boom times. Since antiquity, it has averaged only 0.3%, much less than is probably needed for network security alone.

On the other hand, the fiat regime since 1971 shows the terrible mislocations of capital caused by the "contained" inflation averaging 6% per year.

0.7% per year => monetary base doubles in 100 years, goes up a 1000-fold in 1000 years.
1.4% per year => monetary base quadruples in 100 years, goes up a 1,000,000fold in 1000 years.
2.1% per year => monetary base goes up 700% in 100 years, a billionfold in 1000 years.
2.8% per year => monetary base goes up 16-fold in 100 years, a trillionfold in 1000 years.
3.5% per year => monetary base goes up 32-fold in 100 years, a quadrillionfold in 1000 years.

Anyone who takes the time to read the above list, realizes that no astute whale is going to buy things whose inflation is more than ~1.5% per year unless they are for short term speculation only, or there is another compelling consideration except inflation.
4655  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: --* Monero Community Hall of Fame *-- on: July 17, 2014, 07:59:08 AM
If bounty donations count (and I don't see why they wouldn't), well I'm looking forward to my crates of diamonds.

Please add a pedigree of your donations, including the dates of advancing to each dan rank (if you want the history to be shown). It will be added to the front of the list promptly and glory goes to whom it is due.  Smiley
4656  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: --* Monero Community Hall of Fame *-- on: July 17, 2014, 07:55:19 AM
I have supported the development right from the start Smiley

20 XMR donated to the pool bounty
10 XMR donated to the GUI bounty

If bounty donations count (and I don't see why they wouldn't), well I'm looking forward to my crates of diamonds.


Are you thinking of only completed bounties? Or all of them, both waiting to be claimed as well as pledged and waiting for collection?

Would donations to developers addresses before they listed the dev wallet fund count, also what about donations to the giveaway fund .. which I think has been sent to the dev wallet?

So many different different names I've used! I guess I'll be left with my own figures Smiley

- 1 XMR donated equals 1 XMR regardless of its exchange value. Other currencies (BTC) are converted to XMR at the exchange rate of the donation date;

- The donation date is the date when you published the willingness to surrender this money to development (in case that there is a delay between the stated intent and the transaction), however it is listed only after you transfer/surrender the funds (this applies to bounties where you have the funds in your possession and/or don't know if you are required to surrender them or not);

- Donations to bounty funds, dev personal addresses, dev wallet and giveaway fund, all count and are listed with the day when they were announced, from the day the donation is actually made (or I've been informed about it);

- All donations are added together and rank advanced accordingly;

- List is arranged by "earliest date of promotion to the level in question", then by "earliest date of promotion to the level N-1 (if applicable), etc.", then by "first to be added gets preference";

- The hero donators in the list (1st dan and up) get to add a personal message (name + text must fit in one line), furthermore their promotion date history is shown from the 1st dan up (if applicable);

- The superhero donators (4th dan and up) get 5 full lines of message (4th dan only 3 lines sorry) in italics (moderated by me);

- The eternal legendary donators (1 kilo club, 6th dan, crates of Diamonds), get:
  * 1 crate of Diamonds for every 1,000 XMR donated
  * one custom title per every 1,000 XMR above the first one
  * higher dan rank, so that (2k => 7th dan, 5k => 8th dan, ad inf)
  * to change their text at will
  * complimentary bottle of wine from my own cellars in Malla upon their introductory visit (my wine cellar is 80sqm, of 40 different wines);  

- Donating time does not count towards this list (it makes practical problems of valuation, for example I would not work for less than $2k per hour - does that mean my writing this message earns me 1.5 crates of Diamonds?  Roll Eyes );

- There will be a separate Heroes of Work list that seeks to give glory to the ones donating their time, including the devs.
4657  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: --* Monero Community Hall of Fame *-- on: July 17, 2014, 07:21:10 AM

Please confirm and I'll send it  Grin


Added.
4658  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - Secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - Now on Hitbtc.com on: July 17, 2014, 12:05:39 AM
0.7% inflation means a doubling every 100 years of the supply. Is this "significant"?  I don't think so. This will secure the network and also not erode our wealth significantly.

I think the 0.7% figure is the right one. It's around that area though.

Since Jesus: 1,048,576x inflation. "not significant". yeah

The greatest loss of mankind is its inability to understand the exponential function.

j/k I also think that is close to the right figure from gold standard perspective. But there may be more to it, so let the debate continue Smiley
4659  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: --* Monero Community Hall of Fame *-- on: July 17, 2014, 12:01:03 AM
Although it may not help you level up in the hall of fame, a good way to support development if you are a miner is to solo mine to the donation address. This also helps the coin itself directly by maintaining a full node and increasing decentralization. I recently shifted some of my mining gear to the donation address.

And it also counts towards the hall of fame!
4660  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Monero Economy on: July 16, 2014, 11:46:47 PM
In regards to the second question, the other way to do so is FreiCoin's system, which over time destroys the balance of all accounts equally through demurrage. The FreiCoin devs insist that this is totally different from inflation, but I haven't been able to follow that argument (and it diverges into a lot of economics I'm not well versed in).

This is the main idea I was trying to get across earlier in the thread. Demurrage differs from inflation because inflation in PoW crypto is more complicated in that each coin has other value properties in addition to being simply a percentage of total value. If the total supply increases by 1%, that doesn't mean the value of each coin decreases by 1%. FreiCoin's demurrage does mean that because a percentage of coins are actually disappearing. This means a 1% demurrage is much more costly than a 1% inflation (in PoW crypto, that is).

Sir, you are not making any sense.
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