Your scenario seems plausible. The current rally is lacklustre. But there is no catalyst (yet) for a sell off and such sell off going through $5,000.
Bear markets take so much patience .....
The catalyst is breaking downwards through the exponential trend line from 2012 that supported the cryptowinter (shown above as the rising trend line). It is somewhat serendipitous that the currrent falling trend line from peak, current support ~$5700 and historic exponential trend line from 2012 all meet at a single point.
We don’t have enough buying pressure to sustain the 2012 exponential trend line and we should get a death cross as a result. When we break downwards through that trend line, the newspapers will say Bitcoin is dead. That will give us enough selling pressure to break down past $5k for a capitulation.