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4681  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: In the case of a large percentage drop on: December 05, 2017, 10:56:33 PM
To pick up the philosophy that a significant amount of people around here claim to have, have a look at this thread.  Basically, given that it's a risky asset, trading frequently is often considered to be worse than simply buying and holding.

Most people around here are not experienced traders, and it's quite important to be self-aware of that by avoiding day trading and other short-term trading.

However, not all of them actually do that, and end up panic selling after investing more than they could afford to lose or being afraid for their money.

Personally, I think I'm willing to hodl as well, seeing as I haven't bought any at these higher prices.  But I can't guarantee how I'll react when it actually happens.

4682  Economy / Speculation / Re: This peak is not the 2013 top! Still more to go on: December 05, 2017, 08:31:05 PM
Why do you think it is in a bubble?
Because:

-The price has risen extremely dramatically since the start of the year, with an increase from approximately $1,000 to over $10,000.

-This price increase is not backed by the merchant adoption that BTC users previously focused on - rather, BTC is being touted as a "store of value".  This is fine in itself, but without functioning well as a currency as well, the "store of value" aspect is primarily kept alive by first mover advantage, which doesn't tend to last forever.

-Traders in many crypto-related spaces have become euphoric and are assuming that the price will continue rising exponentially, which is a dangerous assumption to have in such a risky asset.  This is very common during speculative bubbles.
It's only in a bubble if you think the technology will fail.
I disagree.  BTC is still relatively early in its development phase and has a long way to go.  I don't think that it'll fail, but I don't think that more speculators are going to make it any better.
4683  Bitcoin / Electrum / Re: Segwit and Segwitx2 on: December 05, 2017, 07:26:49 PM
so even if BitPay generates a Segwit address for the invoice I can still pay it from an old electrum version.. correct?
Yep.  It's no different for you to send to a SegWit address as it would be for you to send to a legacy address.
is there any tool for detecting if an addy I want to send to is Segwit or non Segwit?
No, but P2SH (Pay to Script Hash) addresses begin with a 3.

If the address begins with a 1, it's definitely a legacy address, and if it starts with a 3, it's either a SegWit address or it's using one of the other uses of P2SH addresses (namely multisig).
4684  Economy / Speculation / Re: This peak is not the 2013 top! Still more to go on: December 05, 2017, 07:09:21 PM
People are finding arbitrary comparisons over and over again just to suit them.

If the BTC ever passes that point, you'll find some other arbitrary comparison to try and claim that the BTC price should get higher than it already is - the reality is that in (likely) bubbles, the price is not rational and it doesn't have to stick to or follow specific percentages.

That's the case all the time, but it's even less predictable in a bubble.  If you've bought in late, at least justify it properly.
4685  Economy / Economics / Re: Why bitcoin indeed "looks" like a Ponzi scheme on: December 05, 2017, 06:54:08 PM
Bitcoin was originally created to be an anonymous currency
That was never one of the core aims.  Read through the whitepaper.
I don't think the price of bitcoin will decrease anytime soon because we are still at the beginning of the curve of adoption
This is assuming that everything which rises dramatically in price must continue rising until there is literally no money left that could possibly fuel it.

What you're missing is that a significant amount of people will continue to be skeptical or uninterested, and some people will be scared away, considering it more likely to be a bubble if the price rises higher.  If we went by your logic, pretty much everything would be worth loads.
It looks like a Ponzi scheme because, when every potential bitcoin users of the population will have exhausted all of their "potential of speculation", there will be nothing left to sustain the price of the bitcoin.
A Ponzi scheme involves a central authority gaining money by accepting investments into a central platform and then distributing money to earlier investors.  A speculative asset and a Ponzi scheme are entirely different, and it would be ridiculous to conflate the two terms.
4686  Economy / Economics / Re: Central Bank not protecting deposits on: December 05, 2017, 06:41:51 PM
Do you have links?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-19/ecb-proposes-end-deposit-protection

If you want to read the full paper, it's here.
Do you think it will happen?
If it does, I suspect it'll happen over a long and gradual transition period taking several years, and I suspect that they'll try their best to keep it quiet.

People still have the misconception that central banks create the majority of money in a country when it's actually made by retail banks, so they could hold the misconception that their deposits are insured for a long time.
Do you think bitcoin and alts will moon even more?
I doubt it'll have that much effect for now.
4687  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is 6Th Largest Currency by Circulation on: December 05, 2017, 05:58:56 PM
A huge amount of BTC travels to and from exchanges, hence why the trading volume is around $7,000,000,000.

Since BTC is somewhat scarce and not inflationary, plus the fact that it can be used internationally and has nothing to peg down the price, the number of people that actually use it as a currency seems to be insignificant and the number of merchants that accept it is also insignificant.

Comparing BTC's market cap to a fiat currency's market cap is unreasonable, because fiat currencies aren't hoarded so much.

4688  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin rises still, but why? on: December 05, 2017, 04:17:12 PM
with the PoW algorithm using too much energy for mining.
The PoW system is used by most other major cryptos as well, and equally secure implementations of PoS systems and other systems are nowhere to be found as of yet.
If you want to trade on exchanges you almost always trade against Bitcoin instead of USD
Most major alts (the ones which aren't designed primarily for pump and dumps) can be traded on some of the available exchanges against USD. 
I therefore hope that exchanges will adapt USD as the standard measure and stop having Bitcoin/Altcoin pairs...
This could be a huge problem for taxation and it would require more complex KYC procedures for those who only want to trade crypto.  Many of these people would prefer to stay anonymous or pseudonymous.

It's a lot more effort trading directly with fiat.
4689  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Question: If Bitcoin Futures are bad why do the Winklevoss... on: December 05, 2017, 09:48:04 AM
Generally btc holders agree while short term up until 10th or so BTC may rise that shortly after a huge short will be taken by wall street hedges and price will fall greatly!
This is the first time I've seen this prediction.  I'm pretty sure that BTC holders don't "generally agree" about this. 

I also don't see why you assume that Wall Street will act in the specific way that you expect them to.  They have quite varied views on BTC and eve the ones that believe BTC is in a bubble wouldn't necessarily short it.
So WHY WHY do the new billionaire brothers the Winklevoss's WANT a futures trade to happen?
Because they don't think the same thing that you've said.  It's perfectly possible that it could cause the price to rise, depending on who gets involved.

It's also possible that more people would get involved out of curiosity if BTC is introduced to more regulated and mainstream financial markets.
4690  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Treasury ministry plans strong regulations of Bitcoin on: December 05, 2017, 09:27:39 AM
Same as any investment - fiat, bonds, stocks, shares - pay your taxes and you will have no problems, provided you aren't doing anything illegal.
Not really the same, because stocks and bonds can't be sent in the same decentralised and pseudonymous way that BTC can. 

I don't think that the UK government really considers crime conducted with BTC to be as huge a threat as they claim - if anything the threat may be decreasing, because small-scale criminals can often find the fees annoying (as you can tell on darknet markets and related forums).

They should really be focused specifically on taxation, but instead they're pretending that crime is a huge factor in their decision.  Even though it may play some part, I think that the prominence of P2P trading and the use of cash makes this a futile battle.
4691  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2017-12-05] All the Bitcoins in the World Are Now Worth More Than New Zealand on: December 05, 2017, 08:44:35 AM
The GDP of a country is not comparable to the market cap.

A large amount of countries' GDP is made up of goods and services that are used over a relatively short timeframe and produced repeatedly.

Market cap is not suitable for measuring the total value of BTC, and it's pretty much impossible to get a good valuation so it makes sense to just ignore this kind of article altogether.
4692  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Are old paper wallets safe ?? 3 years old address on: December 04, 2017, 10:58:32 PM
Because it is an old address, is it possible to import it to a Ledger wallet and then have access to all the forked coins ?
How long you've used the address for is irrelevant.

If I understand correctly, you can only import seeds into the Ledger, so if you have your private key written down as a single string (which is the most likely case) then you won't be able to export your private key directly into the Ledger.

You could try exporting your private key into blockchain.info or another trustworthy place, and then sending the coins to your Ledger.
4693  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: So what's stopping china from banning bitcoin mining? on: December 04, 2017, 10:44:23 PM
Mining, on the other hand, is decentralised.  By "banning" mining, they would be banning something which could happen in any home anywhere without their knowledge, so it would be a very ineffective law.

Oh really?
Yes.
There is nobody mining at home in China
Pretty bold statement to make.  But you can't get any statistics about that - because mining is decentralised.  Sure, miners are loud, but my point is that in general it's a futile battle for a government to have, expending resources to get people who aren't ultimately wasting any money, and expending a lot of resources trying to get the people who do it on a smaller scale.

It would also really piss people off, because it's basically stealing their investment into those miners by forcibly shutting it down.  Shutting down exchanges, on the other hand, isn't a huge threat to people's investments unless people's coins get stolen from the exchanges.
4694  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2017-12-04] Demand for Bitcoin Jobs Surging as Price Continues to Climb on: December 04, 2017, 10:34:57 PM
Quite funny that they unconsciously referred to how this is unlikely to last:
Like the Internet a few decades ago, Bitcoin is now becoming one of the greatest job creators.
The Internet two decades ago (the Internet's period of introduction to the mainstream) may have "created" a lot of jobs, but they were temporary and unstable jobs created by the hype.

Some of these jobs will fall through as soon as hype around specific areas starts to die out.  This applies to customer support jobs as well as jobs in experimental areas of crypto like newer services.
4695  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: So what's stopping china from banning bitcoin mining? on: December 04, 2017, 07:29:54 PM
So,what's actually stopping china from banning bitcoin mining totally there?
Trading relies on centralised platforms.  By regulating Bitcoin exchanges, what they're really doing is pressuring websites to abide by specific regulations (or to close down) - this is easy, because it's just a website, not a decentralised network.

Mining, on the other hand, is decentralised.  By "banning" mining, they would be banning something which could happen in any home anywhere without their knowledge, so it would be a very ineffective law.

Also, since electricity is cheap there, it's actually beneficial for the Chinese economy as a lot of miners make significant profits from it there.

By attempting to ban mining, they would be basically banning people from making a potentially profitable investment, and not even succeeding in doing that.  So it seems very unlikely that they would ban mining.
4696  Economy / Economics / Re: The impact of futures trading on commodities and my worry for BTC on: December 04, 2017, 07:15:19 PM
I agree.  Bitcoin's emphasis on financial sovereignty makes it very important for people to be trading real BTC at all times and to withdraw it very easily at will to a wallet that they control.

It's also a problem because it could cause significant price manipulation, since there's not a lot to prevent the BTC price from being manipulated.

It could also make speculators who are joining in quite late into the BTC market speculate even more feverishly than before.
4697  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2017-12-03] $51 Billion CME to Enable Bitcoin Futures Trading by December 18 on: December 04, 2017, 06:40:17 PM
Why would they put something if it will be gone and nothing in the future
Because they would rake in some fairly hefty exchange fees from listing it.

Provided that an exchange wouldn't completely destroy their reputation by listing something (they wouldn't by listing BTC) they have a very clear incentive for listing whatever people are willing to trade.  It doesn't necessarily prove that BTC is doing better or that the price will remain high.

This incentive is strengthened by the fact that BTC has a very high trading volume and it could potentially be easy to manipulate the price with huge amounts of money (on their exchange).

EDIT: for now, they're offering it for free.  But I suspect that'll only be the case for as long as they want to stay extremely competitive, so that they can get frequent customers to begin charging later.
4698  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: Should I get a hardware wallet ? on: December 04, 2017, 06:00:48 PM
Im looking to hold crypto for the long term... I don't want to touch or spend it.

Should I get a hardware wallet ?
A hardware wallet is one good option, yes, but you could always go for a paper wallet.

Your decision should primarily be based on how significant the price of a hardware wallet is relative to your total investment.  There's no need to spend an excessive amount on a hardware wallet if a paper wallet is very easy and viable for you.
Im looking at the Ledger Nano S, Is it SAFE
It's almost certainly safe, because it's open source code and thousands of users have the ability to review that code.
4699  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2017-12-02] Get a Forkful of Bitcoin This Christmas! on: December 04, 2017, 05:12:14 PM
If they prove to be useful, they will have a demand, if not, they will slowly die off.
I don't know.  They only need just enough demand to get listed on an exchange, and then you have hoards of emotionally unstable new investors waiting to hop into any new pump that comes their way.

Often even very poorly thought-out forks could end up doing pretty well.

There are only slight differences in the code, and these differences certainly don't warrant being called "Bitcoin" since they're not really trying to become as significant as the current main chain at this point.
4700  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2017-12-03] Nobel Economists Don’t Like Bitcoin Because it Disrupts Traditional on: December 04, 2017, 12:06:42 PM
BTC users' victim complex is really tiring to see over and over again.

From the economists' perspectives, BTC is simply not suitable for the world's finances.  Considering that BTC can currently only handle a few transactions per second, they're certainly right.

Sure, the practicality could change in the future and the general basis of BTC is very sound, but the economists only need to observe what they're seeing right now.

They don't have to act as big, evil establishment figures all the time.
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