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I don't agree with this. Personally I will never use this option even if it exists. It's better to merit the posts manually.
You might find a post that deserves to get a merit more than that post. Also, in this case, you will never be able to merit a post instantly. A user Script which reminds you of those posts might be more helpful.
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Are the yobit people spamming? Is the fault of the user, not of the campaign, if you pay them 10 cents per posts spammers will join the campaign, limit the number of maximum posts they will simply create or buy alt accounts and the results will be the same.
They should be at least Senior Member. How can they create a new account and join Yobit Signature campaign? If Yobit and ChipMixer had the same posting requirements and paid the same amount per post and per participant do you think that the members promoting ChipMixer would switch sides? Even if Yobit paid more do you think those users would advertise a site like Yobit?
No, Yobit can never have the good reputation ChipMixer and DarkStar_ have. I agree with you. There are no rules as to the number of posts that you can make per day as long as no rules are broken. I don't think that will change.
There are no rules and this is what encourages some users to make 20 posts per day. (There is no problem if someone makes 100+ good posts) You're mentioning the campaigns that pay an actual coin with value. As much as I dislike the current Yobit spam: at least it has a cost to them!
The bounty campaigns that pay in worthless made-up Tokens cause much more spam, but it's mainly restricted to the (totally lost) Altcoin boards.
If theymos doesn't want to stop those, I don't think he'll implement stricter rules for Bitcoin-paying campaigns either. But if they push their luck, the entire campaign will get banned, and I'm pretty sure that's the only reason for Yobit to hire a campaign manager this time.
I was not mentioning to those bounties. Most of them require their participants to post only 10-15 posts per week. The main problem with almost all of them is a lack of good management. Almost all of those managers accept every application. But generally you are right about them. Altcoins bounties are more harmful to the forum. I think the point being made was that while ChipMixer enrolls the best posters because DarkStar_ is diligent in his selection process, it attracts the best posters because of the pay rates. If DarkStar_ was to run another campaign which was paying 0.002 BTC per week (for example), I doubt there would be many non-selected previous ChipMixer applicants applying for this campaign solely because it is DarkStar_ who manages it.
You are right about DarkStar_. ChipMixer campaign is manged very well by him. He spent a long time only for selecting four new users two weeks ago. He is doing his job very well. But what if a company more reputable than ChipMixer runs a campaign and pay 0.001 for every post? Don't you think in long term some of the the current users of ChipMixer will move to that new campaign? |
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Some of those might be missing legitimately - e.g. quickly deleted, or posted on an invisible board, for example:
Invisible boards? Which boards are invisible? Are there some boards that are only visible to moderators? All others seem to exist in the WO thread, except this one in a different thread:
Do you mean this thread? So, there is a bug. Am I right? All of the posts in this thread should be shown in "Recent" too. May I know how could you find this post only with knowing msgID? The links of posts contain topic number too. |
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Many of us, users of freebitco.in, talked about its huge house edge on Multiply BTC game, at least once. Indeed it is greater than, probably, on any other dice site. I don't remember about playing dice with 5% house edge anywhere except freebitco.in.
Today I decided to hunt for the jackpot on the site. I selected second lowest payout, 0.001 BTC, and started rolling. Long story short, I didn't hit the jackpot, but I hit a couple of interesting winning streaks which I want to share.
The first one is 8 wins in a row with 2x payout(47.50% win chance):
As the game is provably fair, every number can be the outcome of your roll. The result is based on luck. You hit 8 wins in a row and I won't be surprised even if you hit 20 wins in a row. But we don't know what will be the result of your next 8 rolls. They can be 8 loss in a row or 8 other win. This is the nature of a provably fair game like the game we have in Freebitco or any other website that has a fair game. The rolls are calculated 100% randomly. The house edge determines the probability of winning. But the outcome is still based on luck. And we cannot ignore that, higher house edge a website has lower chance the gambler has. |
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ChipMixer pays 34% more with 36% of the post requirement, assuming max pay. For pay/post, there are quite a few campaigns that beat Yobit as well, not to mention that they aren't shady exchanges with various scam accusations.
Assume that each of ChipMixer and Yobit hire 50 users and all of the users reach the maximum posts. The maximum money ChipMixer pay to participants per week is 50*0.00075*50= 1.875 BTC. The maximum money Yobit pay to participants per week is 50*0.00016*140= 1.12 BTC (0.00016 is the average amount they per every post) Which campaign will spend more money? Which signature you will see more in the forum? Yobit is able to be seen more with spending less money. That's why I think they shouldn't be allowed to have such a high maximum posts. In this case if they want number of their posts to be more than ChipMixer's posts, they have to spend more money. |
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I saw it, but I mean adding this signature to website under "Refer" section where we have that very old basic signature code. You can edit that code easily. Ctrl+F Then search for "178". (There are four "178" in the signature code.) Replace all of them with your own referral code which can be found in "Refer" section. |
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Concerning your suggestion, although I don't buy into the idea of restricting any individual to a maximum number of post he/she can make on the forum daily.
I didn't say the users should be restricted to a maximum number of posts. The users should be able to make 100+ posts as long as they don't spam. But the number of posts that they are paid for should be restricted, so they are not encouraged to spam to reach the maximum earning. |
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This, just like the "minimum wage" suggestion a while ago, is unenforceable without some seriously Orwellian policing and I don't think there is any interest among forum administration to get involved in that.
Likely it wouldn't even solve the problem. Campaigns that pay pennies for shitposts could still pay pennies for shitposts, just hire more shitposters / account farmers / etc.
Yes, This has already been discussed in this topic. and I was one of the people who disagreed with forcing campaign owners to pay a minimum amount per post. Campaign mangers should have the right to pay as much as they want. But they didn't have the right to attract the users with increasing number of eligible posts. Assume that there are two campaigns. A: 0.0001 BTC/post, Maximum eligible posts: 100/week, Number of participants: 50 B: 0.0001 BTC/post, Maximum eligible posts: 50/week, Number of participants: 100 Which one is better? Both are paying equal money for every post. In my opinion the second one is better. It's more helpful to the campaign owner as I expect more posts will be made with their signature. It's also better for the forum as no one will spam to reach 100 posts per week. |
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I think there should be a rule regarding maximum number of eligible posts.
Just follow the forum rules, follow campaign rules, obey anyone, don't shit around, don't make a non-sense post, post constructively and all will be fine. For me, no need to create a special rule because of a single campaign because anyone can spam with or without a signature. Help reports those spammers and let our precious moderators/admins/staffs to handle them. There are many posts in the forum that are not spam and if you report them will be marked as bad. But it's better if they don't exist like what is going on in some spam mega threads. These kind of posts are only made to be paid. We don't know if another campaign like yobit will appear tomorrow. |
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The Maximum amount of money can be earned by signature campaign participants depends on 1. the amount they are paid for every post and 2. the maximum number of posts eligible for payment. Campaign owners can pay for every post as much as they want. No one can force them. It's their own money. They can pay 1 bitcoin for every post or 1 Satoshi. Then users decide whether participate in the campaign or not. If they pay more than others, they can attract the best users like what ChipMixer is doing. Campaign owners can increase the pay rate for attracting users to their campaign. There is no problem with this. But they shouldn't be allowed to consider the maximum posts as much as they want. Because it will lead to spam. Yobit is now paying the users for maximum 20 posts per day. I don't think there are more than 10 users in the forum that can make 20 constructive posts per day without spamming. I know Yahoo is doing his best and bans every user that spams. But there are still many useless posts made by Cryptotalk signature campaign participants. If a campaign wants to attract better users, they should increase the rates and if a campaign wants more posts contain their signature should hire more users. They shouldn't be allowed to increase the total number of posts eligible for the payment. ChipMixer is now paying 0.00075 bitcoin for every post. They can decrease the rates to 0.00012 per post and increase the number of eligible posts. In this way they can advertise their websites more and spend less money. But they don't do this. Thanks to them. What if Yobit change the maximum posts to 40 per day? I think there should be a rule regarding maximum number of eligible posts. |
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Plagiarism User: jefferey0908Archived: http://archive.is/A16CkLegendary Old Trafford stadium will host Monday’s Premier League derby between Manchester United and Arsenal, the two teams who are no longer seen as one of the main favourites to win the trophy. The Red Devils aim to bounce back from a 2-0 loss to West Ham United, but seeing that their recent performances in all competitions have been anything but good, we do not believe that there is a big value in betting on Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s troops.
The Gunners, on the other hand, showed character in a 3-2 win over Aston Villa, with the team coming from behind to beat the newcomers with ten men on the field. Unai Emery’s troops are brimming with confidence ahead of the trip to Manchester and seeing that the hosts are without injured midfielder Paul Pogba, maybe the gunners will have more chances!
What's your opinions towards this match?
All words have been copied from this web pageArchived: http://archive.is/RAcZN
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If that is the situation then what is the solution? As long as any system exists there will always be those wanting to find a way to make it work for their own agenda.
I agree that there always some people abusing the system as well as there are many people abusing merit system. But I think Making the bumpers list public will cause the situation to be worse. In that case, I expect the number of bumpers to increase. Look at users flooding this forum with "cryptotalk.org" signatures, the majority as posting pathetic nonsensical messages just to increase post count. One particular new exchange owner has removed his signature promoting his exchange and replacing it with "cryptotalk.org" because somehow he is happy to receive his payput from the posts than promote his exchange. It cannot get more ridiculous than that.
This is exactly why I am not in favor of publicity of bumpers list. Crpytotalk signature campaign participants are spamming the forum to get paid. If the bumpers list becomes public, I guess some bumping campaigns appear too. Now, all merits data are public. I have seen some users that receive 100% of their merits from 1-2 certain accounts. I have seen a few legendary members that has not received any merit, but send all their smerits (Those that were distributed when the new merit system was introduced) to a certain member. But it's not easy to prove abusing merit system. There will be a same story for bumping abusers too. Now, I think the best thing can do is what Theymos is doing. It's better if the list of bumpers is not public. If you have seen paid bumping services before, then you will agree with me that it's actually so easy to spot them once you come across any in a thread.
Their posting style with different accounts is simillar and the accounts tend to be activate and inactive at specific times.
The accounts also usually comment on only specific threads
The main concern is super bumpers. Those who mini-bump the topics are no longer very effective. Also, they have zero effect if they have made a post in that thread in the past 7 days or they are newbie. |
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On the roulette it's freaking impossible, for reasons I shouldn't need to explain.
People have actually turned the chances positive for themselves on roulette and the casino said it wasnt fair but a court said they should be paid. They used laser tracking on the wheel to detect the most probable numbers, using this improved chance the roulette wheel player placed higher money at certain times to get a positive return over the evening. I think they got a million+ from it hence the court case, was in London. I might search for the article on it later. I have read though its foreign to me that some can manually detect a roulette wheel which has worn and become more liable to certain numbers, must be alot of talent required for that. I found an old article on BBC. This news was released on 2004. I guess this is what you are talking about. Any way, here we are not discussing about a real roulette in London or Vegas. We are discussing about an online game which the outcome is determined by some mathematics calculations. |
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Check these two users. 1. TillKoelnHe is advertising his links and is posting burst while wearing Cryptotalk signature. ( http://archive.is/Z7GV5) 2. snakey (3 negative trusts) This user didn't make any post between June 18 and September 27. ( http://archive.is/R3mrN) Today, he worn Crytotalk signature and made 20 posts between 09:18:54 AM - 10:29:09 AM and became offline again. ( http://archive.is/p1YWH) Special thanks to LoyceV http://loyce.club/active/1h.html is really helpful. As stats of cryptotalk signature campaign participants are updated regularly every 3-4 hours, seems that they are able to cash out their earning easily before Yahoo bans them |
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For people interested in spam hunting: I found this account on top of http://loyce.club/active/1h.html (which means he made the largest number of posts in the past hour). Dang Loyce, this is a great tool for spotting plagiarists. I just found this guy from the 24 hours list and reported his last 5 posts for plagiarism. Yes, that's really helpful especially after relaunching of Yobit Campaign. Until yesterday, Newbies were always on top of the list. Now at the time of writing two legendary users are on the top with 17 and 12 posts in the past hour. It's funny a legendary member which has 3 negative trusts, has no merit earned and is posting burst is earning money. I think now we need a new topic for reporting burst-posting too. |
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Shouldn't you use 0.0001 (The amount won) instead of 0.0002 (the amount won+bet amount) in your calculation?
Yes you absolutely right. I thought that the amount won will be the total amount including bet. Seems like I was mistaken at some point and I have corrected the above post. So, the example you made for positive expected value case is no longer valid. The expected value is always negative in dice game. In dice game the expected value can be positive only if the house edge is negative which is impossible. In sports betting the expected value can be positive. Assume that there is a game between teams "A" and "B". Team "A" has 70% chance to win the game and team "B" has "30%" chance. If the house edge is 1%, the odds are A: 99/70=1.414 B: 99/30=3.3 If we use 70% and 30% in our calculations the expected value is negative. The expected value is positive only when the gambler analyze the teams and believe that the probabilities that have been used for calculating the odds are wrong. For example a gambler believe that team "A" has 80% chance and team "B" has 20% chance and bets 0.001 BTC on team "A". If the gambler wins the bet, he will get 0.001*0.414=0.0001414 So, the expected value is as follows. EV= [0.000414*0.8]-[0.001*0.2]= 0.000131 |
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Sometimes odds also fluctuate because of crowd wisdom, and when you know relatively well the sports, you can regularly predict with better accuracy than the crowd.
But, there are also huge opportunities for guaranteed profit. E.G. first time boost offers on many bookies in the UK on big games. Champions League finals, Europa League finals. I remember opening an account on 2 bookies, took advantage of 8/1 and 7/1 odds boosted... and there was 1 guaranteed outcome of each.
Or odds that are higher than the probability of some guy scoring for example. 2/1 for Sturridge to score when he was on a >1 goals per game ratio streak, good value. but +EV?
So you are saying that the odds on different bookies can be determined so the profit is guaranteed if the gambler can catch the opportunity. But this is not called positive expected value. Am I right? roulete or any other kind of gambling can be comparable with sports betting because all of them are still kind of gambling. you can say any good things about sports but there are still that time that you can loose . on roulete you can still win in the long run or on long term depending on your playstyle or on how lucky you are .
In long term, It's impossible to win in dice, roulette or crash game. That's due to the existence of house edge. We have heard about many strategies. But all of them lead to loss in the long term. The big difference between roulette and sport games is that the result in dice or roulette is determined by mathematics calculations, but in sports betting, the result is determined on the field of play. |
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All of these fancy terms usually don't matter much in my opinion since luck is the critical factor in this context. I never care about the EV factor in sports betting since research and luck all that matter to me.
In every gambling website everything is based on luck. No strategy works and the house is always winner. You are right about role of luck and I don't think there is any need to discuss about it. But the chance of win in different websites are not equal. Some parameters like the house edge and Expected value should be considered to maximize your chance and minimize the house chance. A website has 5% house edge cannot be compared with the one gas only 1% house edge. Sometimes two websites have equal house edge. But one of them offers you some bonuses that cause you to have a more chance. I repeat again, the house is always winner and I know it. |
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The positive expected value is the value which the bettor can win. If in a dice game you are placing 0.0001 as bet amount and setting up the multiplier as 2x, here your +ve EV would be like
(0.0002*0.5) - (0.0001*0.5) = 0.00005BTC
Here,
0.0002BTC if your Amount won
0.5 is your multiplier or your winning probability
0.0001BTC is the Amount which you might lose on a negative roll
Shouldn't you use 0.0001 (The amount won) instead of 0.0002 (the amount won+bet amount) in your calculation? As far as I know when the probability of wining and losing are equal, the expected value is zero. According to what you calculated the expected value is zero which implies to higher chance of wining. But in the example you make the probability of wining is 50%. |
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