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4721  Economy / Speculation / Re: $1.9 trillion stimulus passes senate on: March 13, 2021, 02:27:04 AM
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I was wondering what effect you think this will have on Bitcoin over the coming days,

Buy the rumour sell the news, when the law is actually passed and in effect is not when the market moves but in anticipation is when you must decide how this will influence price and asset quality under this change.   Its kinda universal rule that acting now would be after the fact really, the market can still be surprised or unaware of an outcome but most of the time any free market works always in anticipation of effects.

My take on 1.9tn is it makes the dollar weaker, most actions by government work to consume more then they produce where as people and private business is a producer and government is the tax on that productive capacity.  1.9tn represents something of a tax, the market likes weaker dollar as it provides cheaper currency at this time under easy monetary policy.  The overall effect on economies is negative as it detracts from capitalist enterprise in favor of cheaper money and centralised government spending, that influence makes the individual weaker though some might gain from its benefits obviously those not able to work for one reason or another.
   This is politics unfortunately many will disagree but DXY or dollar index generally gets weaker and the point Im making is this bill was on the cards for months hence dollar already fell; now it might rise possibly confusing as that is.
4722  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: March 12, 2021, 11:52:57 PM
Because of the increased spins I get I was getting the 5000 level bonus  every day on wins, was getting used to being that lucky though I didnt get it today or yesterday.   Also BTC rising so high so fast reduces the figure a bit but I get its the same value payout.   Also I tend to spin them one by one unless in a rush, feels like I'm more likely to win :p  no captcha is also nice as my random tram spotting skills can be lacking :p
4723  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC is over $54,000, hold or sell? on: March 12, 2021, 11:42:42 PM
Always hold is the eternal answer of course but trading wise can we spot weakness and benefit from that in some way, I wouldnt advise selling all though because its too easy to be wrong and people are reluctant to buy in at a higher price though this can be correct at times.


Theres a fairly good regular trend at present, it does not especially suggest selling into that.  But sell and buy within a minor speculation of observing the waves back and forth of the wider up trend is reasonable to do.   Mostly its staying above a weekly average and I always take that as a positive market while we do so.
4724  Economy / Speculation / Re: A 70% Drop May Occur after BTC Hitting Around $68,700 on: March 11, 2021, 11:59:36 PM
Im not the wildly bullish type but I wouldnt equate 70k to the 2017 year end high that sold off so badly.   I think I can remember 2017 clearly enough and we seem to have been far more stable at the top this time so I doubt such a fall happens this year.   
70k does match something Tone Vays said though and its fair for a mid point maybe even a high for this year but Im thinking it does reach a new high after that without a giant pullback especially.  [I did think possible 20k as feasible scenario in extremis for a pin down type scenario ie. not a closing bar just a rushed and reversed sell on 4hr or daily bar; I guess that equates to OP scenario]
   Anyhow near term top I was pencilling in prices in this way on the daily ; theres many ledges below hence my doubt to a major bearish situ and any ceiling now I see as ascending positively fairly light touch.
4725  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Stake.com announces Israel Adesanya as their Global branded ambassador on: March 11, 2021, 08:18:33 PM
I took the bet because of the 3x, returns too tempting but I missed the point about him fighting  above his own weight class which does make it a fair bit more risky.   I'm sure he will be fine longer term but I might look at side bets also :p
4726  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: March 11, 2021, 06:56:47 PM
That was a bonus for people who bought the second they could, they got it slightly earlier then previously scheduled so it does take a month to solidify the normal token into the premium benefit pretty sure.   Eventually I'll collect the 12 month part, I get why it has to settle to give that bonus because obviously people will speculate purely on the price and everything in crypto is subject to to go up or down 10% daily at times.   Every commodity market can move 10%, its just deceptively quiet sometimes like an alligator waiting :p   BTC is pretty volatile at present so I consider prices possibly not as accurate, FUN is in ratio to that so its probably effected is my best guess.

RP can be used to earn more RP, it boosts the bonus RP beyond the amounts spent for like 24hr.   So long as you come back to collect it hourly, obviously the challenge being sleep and stuff; looking its about double returned at max
4727  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will Bitcoin eventually crash? on: March 10, 2021, 11:42:01 PM
Speculators will leave the price because some will have borrowed dollars to buy a position they cant own long term.   If that population becomes too great in the price then it can force something of a reset in price but its not usually a crash, I think its more like a vice being turned as the trend is downwards some must leave and others can hold for the longer term so are more native to BTC.
   Any price that rises alot will have air pockets in it that must be shaken out for long term consolidation and greater price action to occur, its not always the negative it might first appear but it certainly will cause negative sentiment at that time.
   Price isnt the most important thing, thats probably the biggest thing to remember it is about a growing population and also imo utility must keep rising even for casual users with little understanding of this tech.   
4728  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin, I salute your final ATH. on: March 10, 2021, 09:31:29 PM
Dont use leverage with BTC, its bad voodoo that only helps sell offs and detractors.   We're in the region of the previous high looks like and market is going over prior pricing.   We just stepped off the 12hr average which is often a good market for bigger up days, so we may revise the price action gained previously so that speculators close positions and market runs through supply to determine a direction from here.



Its above a daily trend at 55k, if it confirms that as a low it will remain bullish in this area.
4729  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC is over $54,000, hold or sell? on: March 09, 2021, 11:54:10 PM
Top of a range is a reasonable trading perspective right now I think but it doesnt show if we will especially sell or not but gains could be capped in any greater or additonal magnitude.



Looks like a trading channel but it isnt, the bottom part is just moving averages though it could be theres also a good trend to the lows.   The current high prices matches a trend or rate of gain for this year and is inline with highs at the start of the month, I dont think it has to be solid resistance especially now.
4730  Economy / Speculation / Re: magic ball ON on: March 09, 2021, 02:55:12 PM
ETH has a breakout pattern in its ratio, price can do anything of course.   Recent price action is recovering much of the previous decline and I think its over 50% of that retracement now.



For this much fast momentum, its looking positive above 54k but we do have some regular ceiling to the price highs.
4731  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is it bearish season yet? on: March 08, 2021, 11:56:15 PM
A true bearish season might take a year or more to arrive yet, people are possibly jumping the gun.  We will pullback if we are to remain healthy though, it can still be bullish after and during that.

Heres a quick trend I'm watching on the daily:


Its quite messy on any lesser time frame, there is some question and doubt in this area as we cross back and forth in this price action range.   The dollar index DXY is rising and is above 92 now which gives me some pause to consider possible pullbacks inline with the general market but so far price remains elevated for some time.
  Breaking trend on a time frame returns us to wider action like the 50 day average below in lower 40k area, I think thats a reasonable scenario also.   The OP question on an entire season of bullish action is not yet in prospect, we have no trend down.
4732  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Discussion & Betting] Eurovision Song Contest 2021 on: March 08, 2021, 11:42:44 PM
Iam always surprised the range of countries that enter into the ESC like Azerbaijan, I dont quite get the logic as thats not Europe in location (or similar distant entries) but it doesnt matter its only singing contest.
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Eligibility for potential participation in the Eurovision Song Contest requires a national broadcaster with active EBU membership that would be able to broadcast the contest via the Eurovision network.

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especially considering that this song isn't English.
English is international but so is French, Spanish very much and ultimately I dont count language against a song too much in its prospects.

Saying that I like this entry alot, but I might be biased to its 'type':
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Roxen's song for Romania: ROXEN - Amnesia - Romania 🇷🇴 It's ok I think, but nothing special in the end. Odds around 70.

The Belgium entry sounds good to me, I dont know its got the killer line to catch votes maybe too close to average or generic.   Yea I got bored at the end sadly.

Finland nope, its ok I guess but nothing special even in its music section and I dont believe it'll get appeal overall tbh  Grin    The Spanish song is more likely the type to get a more general appeal, he can sing but I dont love the song to go with this.    Eventually I will decide but not quite outstanding for those that I heard so far.
4733  Economy / Speculation / Re: If the FBI wallet with 141,000 bitcoins was stolen what would happen? :o on: March 08, 2021, 11:30:03 PM
Short answer is it doesn't matter, 7bn isnt enough any more.   However it matters in terms of news and perception to the idea of security and reliability that BTC offers, people wont doubt FBI before they doubt crypto though its well known that human error is the most common computer problem.    I always argue in favour of usability but thats how it is anyhow.
  The only effect from a wallet compromise like this is change in liquidity and presumably the coins all get released immediately and sold which means a possible blip lower but overall its not important
4734  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Best gambling site for esport? on: March 08, 2021, 08:42:40 PM
Esport I'm using Stake for the last year because they cover so many games, I even knew the players in one of them and they won the game at odds over 10 to 1 so a real underdog.   The big reason to go for this site is they offer live bets, I personally dont spend every minute or have the time to always be immediately available at match start or its delayed etc.   so I really appreciate that they do live betting.  It works out awesome on any kind of underdog type bet as the odds will reflect popularity and any weakness, if you know the game welll and judge the team well then the odds can swing from extreme into a win and you get alot money that way.
   Lots more points in their favor but they also allow a live cash out, so you can arrive late post game start but bet anyway then see your team come back but maybe you have to leave before game end so can cashout with profit or even an emergency close of the bet if you give up on the win and exit the bet before the game ends.
  The site is super convenient, exactly what I need tbh as some games do last a long time, theres a whole variety of sites and points to consider but I've bet esports since 2014 and this is one of the easiest I had available to me.
4735  Economy / Speculation / Re: Don’t Panic III on: March 08, 2021, 05:53:02 PM
Its hard not to spike the market when you are accumulating 1.5bn worth of BTC for a single entity to hold, have we even had such a large transaction as this before.    Trades perhaps but literally this was bought to hold not to play a trade out.    My answer would be the same for any purchase, that if its to be used then it wont matter the price as the usage is always the reason to buy anything and its true even in finance markets.   I thought I would hear more detail by now why would BTC be useful to him, part of the supercharger fees process perhaps, cars do go internationally so BTC might useful in that way.   Price going down doesnt have to matter, I heard of someone who held from 2017 peak and sold higher recently and did they also utilise the Bitcoin meanwhile I dont know but it has some place as an asset.

Anyway in panic news we have DXY dollar index rising above 92 now and I wonder if we can speculate a trend of rising dollar.    Part of this due to rockets fired in middle east and fears there, its also something I was looking for anyway to happen.    BTC so far is fine with the dollar rise and is doing quite well holding higher.
4736  Economy / Speculation / Re: I think it's time to go Short on Bitcoin on: March 08, 2021, 02:34:44 PM
Any trade is best in a regular trend pattern and we're nowhere near to that.   If anything the bias is still firmly with going long, you can always guess tops but then also have to worry how long does that top last for because we have no proven regular trend  up or down right now its hard to call this.   Mostly we are positive is a fair take so calling short is unusual and you run against the tide, not that you must be wrong but this requires high conviction.

We are rising above 2 day average though also within a previous range, no set trend just recovery from prior selling and some repeat.
4737  Other / Meta / Re: Get Donator status by donating 10 BTC on: March 08, 2021, 02:27:16 AM
I was on slush's pool sometimes the luck worked out nicely in earnings, sometimes not.   Never had the sense or really ability to retain all the bitcoin we got, alot of it is costs not profits really.

Unless things changed radically just recently, don't think we've altered substantially what's been true for years but Bitcoin is the most widely and evenly distributed of all the major blockchains, probably all of them.   Imagine if Satoshi never gave up his share, thats the story for alot of them.     So you might be correct but its still the best in that regard and afaik the trend is towards greater distribution so long as actual user population and wallet usage continues to rise.
   The only disruption I see to that is the main market noise interference and influx of FIAT newly made, QE in itself is heavily top biased beneficial to central banking, government fiscal expenditure and treasury bond holders so it figures that weighting continues to wherever its effecting an asset price change.  I presume BTC has changed price partly because of the giant amounts of QE in the last year which means we have likely also absorbed some of that bias
4738  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: People die from heart attack when they hit the jackpot. on: March 08, 2021, 01:30:50 AM
On a serious note health and any related issues cardio vascular health are built up over years, having too much salt on your food is going to be way more relevant to the condition then any apparent trigger in the end.   Nobody goes from good health to suffering a bad attack like this, its a process of damage and some of its preventable.    Anyone who plays luck based games has their system to getting good luck  Grin, I'd recommend always throwing a pinch of salt over your shoulder purely because luck or not it improves your health that you might avoid having put it on your food.    Kinda boring point I guess but simple issues like that determine this topic tbh, I dont reckon a jackpot would get me unless I was on a 12hr drinking session maybe :p
4739  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Stake.com announces Israel Adesanya as their Global branded ambassador on: March 08, 2021, 01:06:23 AM
I guess Poland is celebrating bringing down such a prize, someone's out there is always happy at the result .   Does a regular better who knows UFC well tell me why this happened now especially, was there a clue the favourite would lose or did Blachowicz just outperform and hit it out of the park.
  I thought it was a sure thing, famous last words Shocked
4740  Economy / Gambling / Re: FreeBitco.in-$200 FreeBTC⭐Win Lambo🔥0.2BTC DailyJackpot🏆$32,500 Wager Contest on: March 07, 2021, 09:01:02 PM
Sounds like over simplification, we dont have all the facts available as its not a public company but any business is about maximising revenue efficiently.  The added cost discussed is relative to revenue but also cost of capital, its not a free benefit but via holding a token at cost and with some risk in the market extending out to a year to get full benefits. Tons of money in crypto is short term speculative, leveraged over night even 'hot money' is very common, hence why price can half surprisingly often despite long term gains over most of crypto.   My take is the strategy generally makes sense and I feel lucky holding some Fun as I won another 4000 rp today, overall I dont expect my holding tokens to cost me anything maybe I come out flat or quite probably I gain some benefits net; obviously its all at capital risk its really not free.
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