The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.
And that complex system of domestic and international trade only grows bigger in every aspect. So, what can we conclude of this? That it will just keep going forever and debt will also exponentially rise forever and we will all be living in $100 milllion mansions and riding $50 million yachts? No... not really... Get a grip of reality kid No, like I said, it will eventually fail just not in my lifetime. Thanks BTW. No one has called me kid in 35 years.  NP btw, I'm not a expert. Because of the strength of the dollar, it could very well be maintained and controlled for longer then expected. But even then, with the pace we're going I just don't see how it will last for a much longer time. The system already has failed. The 2008-12 mortgage crisis is all the proof you need. The U.S. is currently attempting to jump start the economy by dumping oil reserves to drop the price of a barrel of oil which puts more disposable income in the hands of the people. These continuous bandages can be put on the system for a very long time to shore up the economy. The Great Depression was a massive global economic recession that ran from 1929 to 1941. That's 12 years of poverty and misery before a noticeable improvement. It led to massive bank failures, high unemployment, and dramatic drops in gross domestic product. It was so bad that we couldn't escape it without a major war which increased production creating jobs. I know I won't live long enough to see the end. I'm pretty sure my kids won't see it either but my grandkids are fucked. lol Bitcoin can't fix this unless it's traded as currency for product without an exchange step or being pegged to a currency and is trusted for international barter. If that happens at all, I won't live long enough to see it. Without knowing your age, I believe you won't live that long either. |
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The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.
And that complex system of domestic and international trade only grows bigger in every aspect. So, what can we conclude of this? That it will just keep going forever and debt will also exponentially rise forever and we will all be living in $100 milllion mansions and riding $50 million yachts? No... not really... Get a grip of reality kid No, like I said, it will eventually fail just not in my lifetime. Thanks BTW. No one has called me kid in 35 years. |
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There's only one known undeniable fact about this ETF that's available right now. The Winkleiidouches are trying to make themselves a fat stack of cash using Bitcoin.
Well I hope they do because if they get this thing going and do it right, we could all see a better rebound than it has ever sen. Bitcoin is traded so small scale right now, the people got in in 2009 got out in 2012/2013 and now not even they trust the market enough to jump in again, whats that tell you about bitcoin investors. Your "Winkleiidouches" as you so tactfully called them, were smart enough to realize the only players in bitcoin now are idiots who dont understand trading, they dont know what bitcoin really is and what they are doing could very well change this whole game. They are not waiting with their thumbs up their ass to make some money on bitcoin like all the vets and developers are. they made an investment and they want a very good return. So instead of sitting on their thumbs up their asses they are taking this market to the big boys who have so much money the in their trading portfolio if you converted it to Bitcoins it would embarrass the person in the number 1 spot of Bitcoins richest wallets. If they complete this task, you will no longer call them "Winkleiidouches" you will be calling them the next Bitcoin Gods and thanking your lucky stars they came thru, because whatever your holding, could be worth 4 times to 6 times what it is now, before they are done. Nah, even if they make me a bunch of money they'll still be Harvard fraternity elitist scumbags. The rest of it's speculation. They couldn't care less about Bitcoin they just want to make money. They'd sell dog turd futures if their advisor saw a profit in it. I watched the two of them speak at a Bitcoin conference. These two are a couple of seriously unimpressive dudes. You'll never convince me that investing in bitcoin was their idea. |
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Without sounding arrogant I read zerohedge all the time. I just don't agree with their conclusions.
Same with Jim Willie. I think they make some good points but I think the magnitude effect these occurrences will have on the financial system is currently limited.
My view is pretty simple. The recent QEs caused a number of asset bubbles which when they finally pop it's going to make the 2008 economic crisis look like nothing. (The recent omnibus bill that slipped in a clause putting all the derivatives banks should be liable for onto the US tax payers tells me they're already planning for this.) After the last housing bubble popped the FEDs response was QE. So the big question for me is what option does the FED have the next round of deflating bubbles? Eventually the world is going to lose confidence in these Keynesian corportists and the dollar at that point will lose it's world-reserve status. Considering the vast majority of dollars are held offshore for trading, if those get dumped, the dollar's demise could happen really fast. But this just my view, I have no crystal ball, and I never actually studied economics at university, etc. Yeah of course, I enjoy debating such issues. Your not totally wrong, I just disagree with the conclusions. After the bubble bursts, then what? This system is currently BETTER than anything prepared in the sidelines. No one on top wants this party to end (apart from Russia, Syria and Iran). It will ruin their wealth. I doubt you want this system to end right now too. It would literally mean chaos. Fuck gold, fuck BTC, a crash of the magnitude some people predict would mean a restart. Restarts are bloody and brutal with no exceptions. They will paper this over in the short term, inflate the debt off in the medium term and system changes in the long term. Were talking decades, not weeks, months, years. It would take at least a few decades or a decade of worldwide pain and suffering that no one wants. You're right. That's why the system hasn't failed yet. No one wants it to. Bitcoin isn't the answer right now. At this point Bitcoin is just along for the ride. |
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The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.
Currencies never collapse over decades they collapse more than often before people can get to their banks. The writing has been already on the wall for decades. I would argue since the FED was set up which actually is exactly 100 years.... Ok, I'll bite. Let's say there is a run on all the banks tomorrow and no one in the world is willing to use the dollar. It finally meets its deserved death. People all across the U.S. refuse to go to work. Production all but ceases to exist. People are starving to death because there's nothing to trade for food. What currency fills the vaccum left in international trade? Bitcoin? How does it come to be implimented. Is it taken over by the U.S. government to fix the problem or is it used by Muslems to destroy the evil satan once and for all? My point is the dollar has nothing to do with the direction of Bitcoin at this point other than the value of Bitcoin is pegged to the dollar. Recessions and economic crisis are going to happen but that isn't going to help Bitcoin. Ok then, the Yuan or possibly a basket of gold backed currencies, the issue is people WILL be looking for an alternative if the collapse comes. I wouldn't look at recessions etc helping Bitcoin. I would say Bitcoin will help you when recessins and economic crisis come. Bitcoin doesn't need help, it rose a bazillion percent, why does anyone think it's having problems? Then the IMF helps the Yuan become the new world reserve currency. Everyone in the world rallies around the Yuan trying to keep from starving to death. At this point is Bitcoin pegged to the Yuan? Will the Bitcoin price be more stable because it's pegged to the Yuan? In order for this new system to work and Bitcoin to be a good alternative it needs to have value to people. Where does it get that value from in this new world? |
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The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.
Currencies never collapse over decades they collapse more than often before people can get to their banks. The writing has been already on the wall for decades. I would argue since the FED was set up which actually is exactly 100 years.... Ok, I'll bite. Let's say there is a run on all the banks tomorrow and no one in the world is willing to use the dollar. It finally meets its deserved death. People all across the U.S. refuse to go to work. Production all but ceases to exist. People are starving to death because there's nothing to trade for food. What currency fills the vaccum left in international trade? Bitcoin? How does it come to be implimented. Is it taken over by the U.S. government to fix the problem or is it used by Muslems to destroy the evil satan once and for all? My point is the dollar has nothing to do with the direction of Bitcoin at this point other than the value of Bitcoin is pegged to the dollar. Recessions and economic crisis are going to happen but that isn't going to help Bitcoin. |
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The dollar can't die quickly in the classic sense because the dollar isn't just a bunch of paper that people agree has value. It's an enormously complex system of domestic and international trade that would require a century to unravel. Maybe in a century there will be a competing currency to fill the vacuum left after its demise. If that's Bitcoin, great. Of course, it won't matter to me because I'll be dead.
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This isn't going to be one of those threads where everyone strokes each other until the final climax on page 5 is it? Think deeply about the arguments presented and look at both sides. For example, "the dollar is dying and Bitcoin will rise from the ashes" debate. Is the dollar really dying and is Bitcoin capable of replacing it? The dying dollar (economic forecaster, Gary Shilling)
1. Economic Productivity
Among developed nations the U.S. has had the strongest productivity over the last decade. For example, the U.S. averaged 2.2%, Japan 1.6%, U.K. 1.2%, Germany 0.9%, Canada 0.9%, France 0.8%, and Italy flat. When you consider the deflationary trends now at work in emerging markets and other developed nations, Gary believes that U.S. productivity will continue to outperform and help keep the dollar strong.
2. The World’s Largest Economy
The dominant currency is typically found in the world’s largest economy and the U.S. is head-and-shoulders above the rest. As Gary points out, in 2012 U.S. GDP was $15.7 trillion. The second closest, China, was nearly half the size at $8.2 trillion. If you think China is about to overtake the U.S. in terms of size, Gary says “China would have to grow 12% a year for 20 years to catch up…it’s now down at about 7.5% growth and as the Chinese economy shifts away from being driven by exports…away from infrastructure, away from heavy borrowing, and so on, their growth is going to grow even more slowly.”
3. Deep and Broad Financial Markets
Here, Gary writes, “Internationally, money—especially today when it can be transferred anywhere in a split second—wants to be where the action is. That requires not only a powerful and large economy but also deep and broad markets in which to invest. Today, the U.S. Treasury market trumps all others in size and, in the eyes of investors…, in safety as witnessed by the mad rush into Treasury bonds in times of recent global trouble."
Similarly, he states, “American stock market capitalization is four times that of China, Japan or the U.K. and is over three times the Eurozone's…Almost 50% of Treasuries are held by foreigners but only 9.1% of Japan's government net debt is owned by non-Japanese. According to the IMF, 62% of the world's currency reserves are in dollars. The 24% in euros is down from 29% four years ago. Foreigners so love investing in the U.S. that at the end of 2012, it exceeded U.S. investment abroad by $4.4 trillion, up from $4 trillion a year earlier.”
4. Free and Open Financial Markets and Economy
“Investors want to go where it’s free and open; they don’t like China. China periodically freezes their currency. They did that for example during the Great Recession. They had let it float up but then they froze it when they got worried. They’re now letting it float a bit, but they turn it on, they turn it off. Other currencies are much less free to people moving out. They typically manipulate currencies in a lot of places. The Swiss, for example…froze their currency 1.2 to the Euro when everybody wanted to be in the Swiss Franc because they worried that a strong currency would kill their exports to the Eurozone, which is their major trading partner.”
5. Lack of Substitutes
“Things can change over time but one statistic that I think is very important is global forex trading. Now, there’s two sides to this so the numbers add up to 200%, not 100%, because for every sale there’s a buy. But if you look at the trading, in 2001, the U.S. dollar accounted for 90% of all the daily trading in currencies. In 2013, it’s down from 90% to 87%. But if you think of all that’s happened in that time, the euro currency had come in, China has gotten stronger, etc. But it still has only declined 3 percentage points and it’s way ahead of anything else. The second one today is the euro at 33% versus [the USD at] 87%, the yen 23%, sterling 12%—in other words, this is the currency that people transact.”
6. Credibility
“The sixth characteristic is credibility. And that’s the only one where you can say there’s been any questioning of the dollar. And it is true that last year that Standard & Poor’s did downgrade the U.S. from triple AAA to AA+, but that hasn’t really hurt. You might remember that when they did that, Treasuries actually rallied…and it has not changed the willingness of foreigners to put money into dollar denominated assets. So, the credibility issue is the only one that is not absolutely triple-A, but it hasn’t had any decided effects so far.” Everywhere you see the word dollar above replace it with Bitcoin. Does the article still work? Why is Bitcoin really falling? The only answer I can see to that question that seems real is that market forces (buying and selling) are changing the price of Bitcoin. The daily direction is anyone's guess. The question is, do you think Bitcoin still has a future? I do. |
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Wow I came here looking for an Winklevoss update and I found more than i bargained for but cant seem to find the answer to my question. How are things coming along with this. we need this to go thru. Is anyone strongly following this Winklevoss situation and can give us n honest unbiased update, not speculation, but you know for sure this is whats happening  thank you I second this. I suspect part of the reason there is such a dearth of information about the ETF is that the Winklevoss brothers are horrible at public relations and promotion, and moreover, that there simply aren't any meaningful updates to report. There's only one known undeniable fact about this ETF that's available right now. The Winkleiidouches are trying to make themselves a fat stack of cash using Bitcoin. |
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It needs more people using it everyday as a payment system instead of miners dumping the coin as soon as they're mined.
Exactly. This is why PoS coins without inflation are not falling that much now and even rising BTC-wise. I really really enjoy PoS tbh. Only started messing around with them since Just-dice started taking CLAM. It seems to me it prevents a lot of economy leakage through electric bills and ancient miners (seriously when I look at a miner now days it reminds me of a 1970's printer.) I imagine you'd have a large number of Bitcoin miners who would be seriously butthurt about PoS. Seems silly to expect BTC to go global and WANT to give that much money to the fat cat electric companies rather than reward your own kind. I "mine" about a Bitcoin a day using PoS right now completely eco friendly and no huge electric bill. Yeah, the PoW system is looking more nutty to me every day. It's not just the wastefulness, scalability, or the equipment cost in upgrades and failures but the fact that eventually it has to become centralized. I have been here through every 51% scare starting with Deepbit and understand this system just can't be controlled with "goodwill" anymore. The arguments for the wasteful energy use are always beaten down with the claim that the modern banking system uses at least that much energy or more to move money around. Aren't we trying to be better than the current system though? The "we're the same as they are" argument just seems stupid to me. I don't know if PoS is the answer but something needs to change. PoS coins, as good as they are, don't work long term though They are too unsafe I don't think the winning system has been designed yet. The main problem with any design is the thing that brilliant scientists can't comprehend because they're too logical, that's simple human nature. Any design will have to completely remove any ability for someone or some group to game it. That may be an impossible task. Satoshi believed he solved that problem by thinking the only motivation for any activity involving money was greed and logical self interest but that's not true. The reality of life is that nothing is ever just black or white. Blackhat hackers spend hundreds of man hours to break into some of the most secure systems in the world for no other reason than to see if they can. Companies will spend a fortune to crush a competitor even if the realized return will never pay for the attack. Governments spend hundreds of billions of dollars on things that don't work. PoW isn't the final solution. |
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Yeah, the PoW system is looking more nutty to me every day. It's not just the wastefulness, scalability, or the equipment cost in upgrades and failures but the fact that eventually it has to become centralized. I have been here through every 51% scare starting with Deepbit and understand this system just can't be controlled with "goodwill" anymore. The arguments for the wasteful energy use are always beaten down with the claim that the modern banking system uses at least that much energy or more to move money around. Aren't we trying to be better than the current system though? The "we're the same as they are" argument just seems stupid to me. I don't know if PoS is the answer but something needs to change.
Agree. This is where altcoins will play a big roll for "research". I'm not sure if PoS is the correct system either because I see the flaws in it as well. Bitcoin should stay the way it is for now while others duke it out... that's the main reason crypto needs 5 years to figure its self out. That's right. Let the better system prevail. The great solution to system forking is the power of the users to choose a direction and vote on it with their money. That holds true for competing coins too. People will choose the winner and all the preaching on all the forums in the world won't stop it. |
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It needs more people using it everyday as a payment system instead of miners dumping the coin as soon as they're mined.
Exactly. This is why PoS coins without inflation are not falling that much now and even rising BTC-wise. I really really enjoy PoS tbh. Only started messing around with them since Just-dice started taking CLAM. It seems to me it prevents a lot of economy leakage through electric bills and ancient miners (seriously when I look at a miner now days it reminds me of a 1970's printer.) I imagine you'd have a large number of Bitcoin miners who would be seriously butthurt about PoS. Seems silly to expect BTC to go global and WANT to give that much money to the fat cat electric companies rather than reward your own kind. I "mine" about a Bitcoin a day using PoS right now completely eco friendly and no huge electric bill. Yeah, the PoW system is looking more nutty to me every day. It's not just the wastefulness, scalability, or the equipment cost in upgrades and failures but the fact that eventually it has to become centralized. I have been here through every 51% scare starting with Deepbit and understand this system just can't be controlled with "goodwill" anymore. The arguments for the wasteful energy use are always beaten down with the claim that the modern banking system uses at least that much energy or more to move money around. Aren't we trying to be better than the current system though? The "we're the same as they are" argument just seems stupid to me. I don't know if PoS is the answer but something needs to change. So you are basically telling us that btc will loose it's value if it will stay pow? Of course not. The security system has very little to do with a coins value other than providing peace of mind. It provides a trust in the system that insurance gives to credit card fraud. Credit card/bank fraud happens all the time but people don't care because they trust that they will always get their money back. A cryptocoin's security system is supposed to be trustless. If well designed it ensures that transactions happen the way they're supposed to without issue. Fraud is obsolete in cryptocurrency IF the security system is well designed. All of the discussions you see about a 51% attack happen because there is a flaw in the security system that could allow fraudulent activity. The systems architect (satoshi) anticipated this problem and believed that the system would self correct. I disagree. |
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It needs more people using it everyday as a payment system instead of miners dumping the coin as soon as they're mined.
Exactly. This is why PoS coins without inflation are not falling that much now and even rising BTC-wise. I really really enjoy PoS tbh. Only started messing around with them since Just-dice started taking CLAM. It seems to me it prevents a lot of economy leakage through electric bills and ancient miners (seriously when I look at a miner now days it reminds me of a 1970's printer.) I imagine you'd have a large number of Bitcoin miners who would be seriously butthurt about PoS. Seems silly to expect BTC to go global and WANT to give that much money to the fat cat electric companies rather than reward your own kind. I "mine" about a Bitcoin a day using PoS right now completely eco friendly and no huge electric bill. Yeah, the PoW system is looking more nutty to me every day. It's not just the wastefulness, scalability, or the equipment cost in upgrades and failures but the fact that eventually it has to become centralized. I have been here through every 51% scare starting with Deepbit and understand this system just can't be controlled with "goodwill" anymore. The arguments for the wasteful energy use are always beaten down with the claim that the modern banking system uses at least that much energy or more to move money around. Aren't we trying to be better than the current system though? The "we're the same as they are" argument just seems stupid to me. I don't know if PoS is the answer but something needs to change. |
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The objectification of women in Asia must stop. Consider the plight of Rina Bovrisse in Japan. Even the high commission for human rights and women's equality in the United Nations Forum for the Development of Human Dignity for the Twenty-first Century has spoken out in favor of valuing women for their brains, not their looks. According to UN high ambassador Kofi Butros Butros Aly, "women will play an increasingly productive role in the knowledge industries of the 21st century"
JUST KIDDING. Carry on...
Turing the Castro with a gay friend and his mother we went in and out of many shops up and down the street. His mother commented about the lack of females in that area of town saying, "if men don't need women for sex it looks like you don't even want them around". My friend told his mother, "it's not that we don't want them around us. Without sex in the equation we don't have any use for them. Do you want to go on a fishing trip with me mom?" She answered, "no, I hate fishing". He then told her, "that's why there aren't many women here". |
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american coffee
Do you mean Hawaiian coffee or coffee grown in South America? Coffee beans don't grow in North America. |
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I will be happier in the long term if bitcoin just finds a value and stays there. In the short term I want to get rich from bitcoin, in the long term I want an alternative to centralized slave money.
It found a value...the problem is that the value is less today than it was yesterday. What if Bitcoin found a value of $10 per BTC, would that still make you "happier in the long term"? Bitcoin needs to have a huge market cap for the users to be able to store a lot of wealth in Bitcoin and move large sums of currency. A larger market cap increase the chances to have less volatility. It needs more people using it everyday as a payment system instead of miners dumping the coin as soon as they're mined. |
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Coindesk always create a hype by interpreting such comments in a deliberately far-stretched way. I have seen them making big news out of usual comments from government financial bodies of different countries. Basically they want to draw as much attention of people as possible by creating BREAKING news out of thin air. You have to be very careful and read the original statements of those bodies in order to get correct interpretation. You're right. Coindesk isn't exactly the pinnacle of journalistic integrity. Sadly, I've always believed they get most of their ideas from this forum and Reddit. If it's a slow news day on BCT and Reddit they just rehash old news. We should be looking to them for the news, instead we're giving it to them. |
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It means that the next bull run is about to commence. The nasdaq sees trillions of dollars in volume yearly. Just dec 31st alone saw 58B traded on the nasdaq for the DAY!!!!
With that kind of liquidity and eager investors to dabble in btc were sure to see some serious gains in 2015.
#VivaLaBTC
What if the ETF isn't going to be approved? What about the BTC the twins already prepared for it? People who bought BTC in anticipation of the fund are going to dump their stash on the market... We could go much lower then... Doomsday scenarios. I'll bet every bitcoin I own that it will go ahead as planned. No reason not to.. The winkvoss have one of the best if not the best ETF lawyer in the country. They have enough capital to float them through any bureaucratic red tape they may find themselves dealing with. Trust me.... The ETF will be here in 2015, and the bull run will get underway. Have you given up on altcoins Bob (EMC2 & LTC)? I would think the spike in BTC price coming from an ETF wouldn't be enough profit fast enough for you. I never really gave up on LTC, although I have not followed the market for quite some time. I hold a few stacks and maybe one day they'll be worth $40 again or even more.. As for alts.. I never liked them.. I only saw them as a vehicle to acquire more BTC and Fiat. As for the ETF and btc swings.. I couldn't care less these days.. I have a 10 and 20 year plan with btc put away that I bought when they were in the low double digits. I have fiat and btc to live off of and I make more btc daily thanks to the altmarkets. Im a long term HODLING bull when it comes to btc.... I just think that the ETF will indeed start the next bullrun I hope your right. It sure would be nice to have a big fat paycheck instead of all the doom and gloom we've had lately. You see, that's what I dont get. I seen a bunch of hero and legendary members on the forum as of late bashing btc, calling for lower lows and all around turning their back on btc. I'm not sure if this is maybe because they were early adopters, who sold out for major profits early on ($1-$50)... then got trapped on the last bull run and have watched all them profits fade away or maybe its something else. Who knows? But dont worry bud... BTC is bigger then all the hero/legendary member and this forum combined.. #ToThemoon Yeah but it's hard to get fucked for years and not begin hating on the jar of vasoline even if it is protecting your ass.  May all your btc dreams come true. How have you been getting fuck for years with btc??? Only way I can think of is you're the worst trader on the planet! :p What's the deal? The trading I've done well with but I fell for a few of the scams and thefts because they were being pitched by people I thought were reputable. The only ones that really shocked me were Bitcoinica and GLBSE. I was sure they were legit. Oh well, tomorrow is a new day right? |
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I voted CoinHunter because I always thought he was RealSolid and I hate that fucker.
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