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In boom times of rapidly rising stock markets like now, counterparty risk is not something people think of, return on investment reigns supreme. Sometime soon return of investment will take primary place in peoples minds, and how many places can you park your money with little to no couterparty issues? Nobody can print more BTC and nobody can change a law and say you no longer own it. Outlawing it like they have with gold in the past is the only real issue, and gold confiscation has never worked out so well for governments.
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BTC still serves several purposes nothing else can. What price it should be i am not sure, but the darknet alone is growing by a 1000% a year. Retails offering BTC payments to overseas buyers will be huge, i am frequently frustrated i have to eat paypals 3-4% currency conversion fee, plus the world being what it is at the moment, i imagine BTC will find a place quite low on Exters Pyramid.
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This. If nothing else there is truly a problem for the brand when exchanges malfunction, when markets are manipulated by margin hunters, and when the price is more or less set by a Junta of pot heavy insiders. The new money is, almost by definition, not of the hodler/true believer mentality. They can be converted, but it takes a while... again, they are new. So, if they lose a bit here and there while learning that is great. If they get whipsawed to death by market activity that is unexplained by TA or news... you lose them. We are skirting near the territory where you are facing the potential of a long-term setback for adoption and support.
I think we are losing adoption NOW. User numbers don't seem to be rising at all, and the main complaint is losing money on their investment. I literally know no one else who owns coins anymore. This manufactured drop from $600 is killing the tech. (Tes, exchange rates matter, trolls.) Note that game theory says the price will trend to zero. As long as there are hundreds of people with enough coins to play the dump game, one of them will continue doing it to make their extra 20 or 30 coins per day. If you gave me 3k btc today, I could guarantee I would have 6k in 90 days. The game is too easy. Those posters who say that the only people who care about the price (exchange rate) are get rich quick dreamers are deluded. If I could buy a laptop with 2 bitcoins 3 months ago, but now need to use 3 btc, there is a serious problem. And as long as 99.9% of goods require USD to purchase, the exchange rate is important. I left out one point before: look at how much concentrated effort it took to break through support at 500. Thousands and thousands and thousands of coins dumped to break support and make the dump game possible again. How many of the big guys had to help to break through? I sincerely thought it was impossible to reach 490...forgetting that there are single individuals with 50k coins who could wipe out the entire order book. Now, explain to me how it is possible to have another bubble. It will be a race to see who can dump fastest and hardest to make the biggest percentage gain on a thin order book. IIRC, to cut the price 40% in November only took a 1k dump; stops triggered, margins called, panic selling, huge profit with no risk. They won't be able to control themselves when the opportunity arises next time . I will say this with all honesty: I no longer believe btc has any chance of being a serious currency due to its users. I have always been a short term agnostic and long term bull. I am full bear now. I doubt that we will ever see 700 again, and 300's will be here soon. The big guys are warning everyone everyday that they want lower prices. Believe them. Congratulations on being the most recent in a long line of thousands who have predicted the end of bitcoin. There have been many before you and there will be many after you. Thanks for being a part of it all. There will always be "end of worlders" and there will always be "end of bitcoiners." And yet you (Windjc) are always promoting "logic" and "dispassionate" trading but the numbers don't lie: we have been going down all year, are still going down and there appears to be little new blood in the market. So, BTC's ultimate success becomes an article of faith -- the antithesis of what you claim drives your involvement in Bitcoin. All this has happened before and will happen again.... |
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Ask side is getting bigger. We're going down. What is it with the constant need of going down? Annoying.
the bubble has burst, bitcoin is going to nowhere but down Yes the sky is falling. I wouldn't worry though falling, the communists under your bed will probably get you first. |
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I on the other hand do have a fool proof TA method....
....... buy bitcoin. Hold......
.....been working for the last two years....
.....not so much with precious metals though. lol
So you you never sold anything even when price was at $1200 to rebuy lower? You had a lot of occasions to more than triple you whole BTC stash with basic TA in a couple of moves. Nothing out of this planet, nothing difficult. I'm sure that's a compelling idea if your are not talking large numbers, but given what was going on in the BTC world at the time, which exchange would you trust with 6 figure sums of money? I store my BTC with my gold, in a secure vault. I can ride out the ups and downs until BTC reaches its potential, if it doesn't, it does not matter how many BTC i have. And if it does, i will be filthy rich regardless of whether i have x or 3x BTC. The only time I sell BTC is when i swap it for gold bullion, and i'm pretty happy with how it has turned out. How smart are the traders feeling who sold at $1200 on Mt.Gox? |
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This is only the case as long as words have no definition or meaning. Until then no intellectual discussion is possible. When words have a clearly defined meaning, then arguments based on logic and reason become possible.
It is impossible for words to have a "clearly defined meaning". All words have fuzzy meanings. That is how the human language works. Any verbal argument, even if it is based on reason and logic, cannot arrive at absolutist conclusions. All conclusions are only true to a degree. And it's not a question of finding a more precise language, or better definitions, because human thought is imprecise. Neural networks deal in degrees and probabilities, not in mechanistic rules. The biggest failing of libertarinism is that it treats concepts as binary which are continua in the real word. Take the concept of "force" for instance. For a libertarian, either something is forceful or it isn't. But in reality is that there is a spectrum that goes something like this: gentle persuasion ... manipulation ... thinly veiled threats ... pointing a gun to someone's head. Libertarians say that you simply have to define force more precisely in edge cases but I say this is impossible. For a lot of practical problems, intuitive, fuzzy morality trumps mechanistic ideology by a long way. agreed. Too many from all idealogical positions are too purist. I am broadly libertarian, but get frustrated by people who believe it is the answer to all the worlds problems. Regulation does sadly have a place in this crazy world of ours, not all things are subject to market forces. |
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It's not enough for companies to accept bitcoin, although it is a positive sign. We need reasons for people to buy bitcoin just to use it, rather than just those of us with it spending what we already have. At the moment the hassle and risk involved means most people are better off just using CC. As someone who purchases from overseas a lot, and consistently gets screwed on the currency conversion, international transactions makes the most sense for BTC. Hopefully retailers will also start offering discounts to BTC purchases as well.
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interesting thread guys, thanks
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I on the other hand do have a fool proof TA method....
....... buy bitcoin. Hold......
.....been working for the last two years....
.....not so much with precious metals though. lol
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If either TA worked, or you guys were actually any good at it, you would be too busy flying around the world in your lear jets to post comments on this two bit forum.
Reminds me of one of those seminars about TA I went to 10 years ago. Guy talked lots about how wonderful TA was, how good at it he was, how much money he was making, and we could be as good as him too, all we needed to do was sign up for a $99 a month course with him, only 12 month minimum.
Anybody who can actually make it work it not trying to sell shit, just like they aren't trying to make other people believe in it. They are sitting back and making money.
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BTC please stay here for the next month, then go to $2000......if you could do that I would be most appreciative. Amen.
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the real killer app for bitcoin is cross border internet orders. Here in Oz i pay about 3 -4 % over the odds in currency conversion, which when buying things like laptops is a big hit. At the moment all the businesses accepting bitcoin only accept for USA customers, which is silly. There is no reason for US customers to buy bitcoin to then buy stock, rather than just using CC. For the rest of the world though, for example, a DELL laptop is 25 - 40% cheaper in the USA than Oz, so it is very much worth paying with BTC, avoiding the high cost of ordering from DELL Oz, and also avoiding the exchange rip off that paypal imposes. Obviously Dell wants to be able to charge more for stuff they sell here, but going forward, I can see everything being sold from one location, as BTC means you dont have to worry about all the hassles with processing overseas credit cards.
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up 500% yoy. Dying i tell you. lol
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As an Aussie, I have to say, all these retailers offering BTC payment are completely missing the point. Why would an American pay with BTC? A credit card is surely much much easier. It's us foreigners that need it, we get screwed by the currency conversion. At the moment the only person paying with BTC is someone that already had them, probably purchased much much cheaper, and is in effect cashing out. Nobody in their right mind would buy BTC just to purchase something online, the hassle and time involved is still ridiculous. But for something like a laptop, where currency conversion is usually around 3 -5 % of price, it could make a $100 dollar difference to everyone overseas, which would definitely drive adoption.
Dell, Overstock et al, get your shit together!! Take my BTC!!! Save me money!! Give me the satisfaction of denying Paypal their exorbitant currency conversion fees!!
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As an Aussie, I have to say, all these retailers offering BTC payment are completely missing the point. Why would an American pay with BTC? A credit card is surely much much easier. It's us foreigners that need it, we get screwed by the currency conversion. At the moment the only person paying with BTC is someone that already had them, probably purchased much much cheaper, and is in effect cashing out. Nobody in their right mind would buy BTC just to purchase something online, the hassle and time involved is still ridiculous. But for something like a laptop, where currency conversion is usually around 3 -5 % of price, it could make a $100 dollar difference to everyone overseas, which would definitely drive adoption.
Dell, Overstock et al, get your shit together!!
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until the thief/hacker/karples/NSA have finished liquidating the 500,000 coins they stole from gox, it is going to be difficult to rise I think. A lot of downward selling pressure, especially with bugger all volume.
That said, I will wait it out. Unless you are a day trader, who really cares what happens over the next 12 months, eventually BTC has to go up.
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So much good news, so little movement.
What are the odds that .gov hacked Mt.Gox, and they have half a million BTC to keep suppressing the price. Maybe with a few massive dumps to come to really shake everyone's faith in what is rapidly becoming a very real threat to the dollar hegemony?
This is a country that invaded Iraq when it started talking about selling oil for Euro's, destroyed Gadahfi when he tried to set up the gold backed currency to trade oil in, cuts Iran out of swift for not following the petro dollar.
Note i am not arguing that BTC will replace the dollar. Just that the almighty dollar is being attacted from all sides, and it seems the USA is getting a tad desperate in its attempts to consolidate it. Any threat to the reserve status of the dollar is akin to war for the USA, for it would do far more damage, possibly even destroy the currency as trillions of overseas held dollars flooded back into the states, unleashing a tsunami of inflation.
From a self preservation perspective, I doubt there is much it would not do.
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