Hashrate has an effect on price, no doubt about it.
During the time between October 2010 and March 2011 Hashrate drove up price. (Contrary to your observation) The first publically available GPU mining software came online during this time Difficulty increasing changed the CPU miner's landscape, demand to buy XBT drove price to $1USD. ( a growth stage)
I fail to see that, could you provide some data?
A temporary surge in the hashrate, reflected later on the price would be interesting to see.
Mid January, Avalon ships first ASIC, Prise starts accelerating. Anticipation of increased Hashrate, drove up demand and Price (contrary to your observation) but consistent with March 2011 Hasrate increasing driving price. (a growth stage)
If I understand your argument correctly, you are saying that an
anticipated hashrate increase would drive up the price.
Thus an increase in hashrate wouldn't be caused by a preceding surge in price; the increase in hashrate would have been anticipated by the market and the price adjusted accordingly.
Is that it?
We are in a consolidation stage mining supply and demand equilibrium is being reached (...)
Except that the supply is mostly constant. The network adjusts itself to a hashrate increase.