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481  Economy / Speculation / Re: Long term down trend? on: June 14, 2013, 09:35:06 PM
Dumping equal amounts of money into a falling market at regular intervals is a much better strategy than going all in where you think the bottom is.

How so?

Seems to me you are just diminishing the risks, along with potential profits.
482  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin frontpage of FT magazine on: June 14, 2013, 09:27:34 PM
What is the ft magazine?

This. They might get more publicity from us than Bitcoin from them.
483  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 14, 2013, 09:26:05 PM
Smiley i bought again

Again I'll ask:

Are you all in yet?  Grin
484  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 14, 2013, 04:57:34 AM
Don't care too much about short-term wiggles. My play is on weeks/months.

Your short-term wiggles are the equivalent of months of volatility in other markets.
485  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 14, 2013, 04:50:03 AM
adamstgBit: 11 days remaining.  Grin
486  Economy / Speculation / Re: Hashrate VS Price on: June 14, 2013, 01:11:52 AM
Hashrate has an effect on price, no doubt about it.  

During the time between October 2010 and March 2011 Hashrate drove up price. (Contrary to your observation) The first publically available GPU mining software came online during this time Difficulty increasing changed the CPU miner's landscape, demand to buy XBT drove price to $1USD. ( a growth stage)  

I fail to see that, could you provide some data?
A temporary surge in the hashrate, reflected later on the price would be interesting to see.

Mid  January, Avalon ships first ASIC, Prise starts accelerating. Anticipation of increased Hashrate, drove up demand and Price (contrary to your observation) but consistent with March 2011 Hasrate increasing driving price. (a growth stage)

If I understand your argument correctly, you are saying that an anticipated hashrate increase would drive up the price.
Thus an increase in hashrate wouldn't be caused by a preceding surge in price; the increase in hashrate would have been anticipated by the market and the price adjusted accordingly.
Is that it?  Huh

We are in a consolidation stage mining supply and demand equilibrium is being reached (...)

Except that the supply is mostly constant. The network adjusts itself to a hashrate increase.
487  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 13, 2013, 11:16:01 PM


 Grin
488  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 13, 2013, 10:50:43 PM
However, $50 coins may bankrupt you if the market never recovers.
2011 survivors know better. Both during the periods of overvaluation and undervaluation.

Stop it! You are just a greedy speculator who wants cheap coins!

Don't you realize this will destroy Bitcoin forevaaaaaar?

Greeeeeed!


 Tongue
489  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 13, 2013, 10:40:20 PM
You want Bitcoin to lose 500 million in value just so you can buy a few cheap coins? Are you serious? I understand people are greedy but that greedy!?

Wait, wait...

So someone holding bitcoins and wanting to become ungodly rich, that's okay.

But someone hoping for the price to go down... he's greedy?
490  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 13, 2013, 10:32:55 PM
Everyone is being played by the whales, it is comical to watch.   They know their time is limited, so they just keep pushing down the price to acquire more while they can.

Going down, manipulation.
Going up, Bitcoin's superiority.

This forum is magic.  Cheesy
491  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 13, 2013, 10:11:18 PM
Dat insane buying pressure...  Tongue
492  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 13, 2013, 10:06:13 PM
Ok now we're at 104.
That was really worth it Huh

I doubt this is over.
493  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 13, 2013, 09:57:41 PM
Clarmoody died on me.

Panic!
494  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 13, 2013, 09:55:08 PM
Weeeee!

Gentlemen, we are going down.  Cheesy
495  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: June 13, 2013, 09:41:53 PM
Action?  Grin

Edit: So, who thinks the 3k at $105 will be pulled?
496  Economy / Speculation / Re: Hashrate VS Price on: June 13, 2013, 06:47:16 AM
You could say it's less obvious but we both are stuck having to explain the complete divergence occurring this very moment between the two.

Lag between price and hashrate, like every other time?
497  Economy / Speculation / Re: Hashrate VS Price on: June 13, 2013, 06:23:00 AM
Ok.

Let's look at the period between November 2011 and December 2012.

I contend that the hashrate was going straight up while the price kind of bumped along sideways and slightly up.

I could make the argument that that hashrate rise is what led to the parabolic price spike beginning in February.

You could.  Wink

The relationship would be far less obvious... and it seems the price bottomed before the hashrate.
Unfortunately I don't have the tools to make a more detailed graph of this period (at least not for the hashrate).
498  Economy / Speculation / Re: Hashrate VS Price on: June 13, 2013, 06:14:32 AM
the bottom line price of the pearl WOULD be determined by the cost of obtaining it.

If the hashrate goes up and up then it means it's becoming harder and more expensive to mine the bitcoins, which means the price will have to increase.
Really, labor theory of value? Cheesy

I'm preparing for the broken window fallacy.  Wink
499  Economy / Speculation / Re: Hashrate VS Price on: June 13, 2013, 06:11:46 AM
or to take Frozenlocks example:
"People go deep to mine gold because it's valuable; gold is not valuable because people have to go deep to mine it."

Actually, if it only cost you $1 to go deep and mine that gold you'd be happy selling it for $5, but if it cost you $10k to go mine that gold would you still sell it for $5? No of course not, the price would be over $10k because you'd still have to turn a profit. In a sense he is right that gold is not valuable because people have to go deep to get it, BUT it's value IS and WILL BE determined on how much it costs to get deep enough to mine it.

If the hashrate goes up and up then it means it's becoming harder and more expensive to mine the bitcoins, which means the price will have to increase.

Not exactly.

If it costs you $10k to dig an ounce of gold, it doesn't mean that's the price it will have on the market.
It means you won't mine it unless gold is valued at more than $10k.

Same thing with mining bitcoins.
If it becomes more expensive to mine, less people will mine.
(While the supply should stay more or less the same, thanks to the network automatic adjustment.)
500  Economy / Speculation / Re: Hashrate VS Price on: June 13, 2013, 05:47:23 AM
That actually allows me to highlight another reason why miners mine.

For enjoyment. They're geeks after all and this is what they do.

Hashrate influences the price by making speculators more confident that their money won't disappear from a 51%attack.

Why not mine their own little Bitcoin fork? Same hassle, same fun?  Wink
But yeah, I see your point.

Like I said, I've never seen anyone saying he is concerned by the "low" hashrate.
I also think this is way above the head of many speculators.
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