Socrates the Non-Expert Systemhttps://www.armstrongeconomics.com/qa/artificial-intelligence-neural-nets-sorting-out-truth-from-fraud/Artificial Intelligence & Neural Nets - Sorting out Truth from Fraud
Posted Oct 24, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, it seems many people are starting to pretend they have artificial intelligence systems and neural nets. It seems that they are using these terms very loosely. Can you explain the real difference? Everyone I have spoken to says you are the father of AI in finance.
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ANSWER: Yes, 99% of what people pretend is Artificial Intelligence is nothing but an Expert System, which amounts to a look-up table.
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Here, in a recent demonstration of the capability of the Socrates system https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51722301#msg51722301and https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51731135#msg51731135we find that a human expert is the main factor in sorting out what to do with the multitude of uncoordinated technical Socrates signals (after human interpretation): 1) We failed to elect a Weekly Bullish Reversal 2695182 (Socrates does not say that) 2) 1st of July is a turning point and the next is 8th July (Socrates does not say that) 3) The weekly energy model turns down indicating a high is in place 4) The daily energy model turns up 5) The most immediate daily bearish reversal lies at 26536.32 6) We have crash mode technical support at 26617 which may also offer support. Human Expert Conclusion: Entered a short position at 26900 looking to exit around the 26550 areaDoes some of the above not resemble the look-up table of an Expert System? Perhaps before Armstrong makes any Artificial Intelligence (AI) claims, he should first give Socrates some of the basic Expert System capabilities.Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed. Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud. See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog. Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain
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Avoid - Martin Armstrong / Socrates
as well as the other Jewish Pinheads, Broken Clocks and Con Men:
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There are some people in this blog twho are doing some very time-consuming heavy lifting to decipher the elaborate Armstrong scheme. Socrates works like the software in the cars involved in the German "Dieselgate" car emissions fraud scandal. https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/dieselgate-timeline-germanys-car-emissions-fraud-scandalUnder normal conditions, Socrates produces more failure than success. However, on inspection, it shows 100% success. Even then, historical data is NOT available, so a user without the resources that some of the posters in this thread have (which may be anything like perseverance, time, a long memory and IT skills), may remain clueless. Too difficult to verify anything. But there is hope. Look at this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed. Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud. See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog. Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain |
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I'm the same. Looking for bigger moves with a position which I can hold for several weeks or even months.
I thought Socrates is best at forecasting these bigger moves, as MA mentioned several times that daily reversals and arrays are just noise.
Ideally yes. Daily moves are noise for Socrates, no way to use Socrates to win here. But recently, the bigger moves were short term, volatility and confused Socrates, creating losses. Also, do NOT believe Martin Armstrong here! Why? Follow the money! Why would he be an advocate of longer term trading https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/is-the-greatest-trade-on-the-century-knocking-on-the-door-yet/ ? Because that is the only thing that Socrates supports, the only thing that he can sell his reports into, sell his conferences into. And it takes longer to figure out that Socrates is failing. But wait .. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/socrates/the-coming-launch-of-socrates/The intention is to expand the system to intraday. We are in negotiations with a data-provider to make the system live intraday with reversals and timing on an hourly basis.That will definitely change his mind. If Socrates ever gets there. Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed. Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud. See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog. Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain |
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Would you mind sharing some of the sources that produce such returns ?r claim to produce such returns?
Like give the website, the name of the service or describe the strategy. thank you.
Definitely not a Martin Armstrong topic. MTL4 now you see what you get with what you wrote. Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed. Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud. See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog. Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain |
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We failed to elect a key weekly bullish reversal but the main reason for the entry is because Armstrong has stuck his neck out here and said we needed to close this week above 26951.82 to imply a further advance. Also the 1st of July has been a turning point with the next showing up as the 8th and normally one turning point is followed by the opposite event on the next, on the energy model we are seeing the market making new intraday highs while the energy models are declining which indicates this rally is not sustainable. On the weekly energy model we are seeing the energy peak before the price high which indicates we may be forming a temporary high. The energy model is very important to understand and helps you to identify when the market is over-bought or over-sold.
Th exit point is the most immediate daily bearish reversal which lies at 26536.32 but we have crash mode technical support at 26617 which may also offer support.
Hi, The call has already been made for the short trade. There is no Weekly Reversal elected. So the trading decision is published. I am asking Gumbi to post the two reports that we will need to verify the information that he quotes. Anything revealing additional information such as more reversals can be cut out. We are not interested in that. The information we need, such as the forecast arrays, should be in the daily and summary reports published before Friday because the Friday reports are available only after the Friday market close and would be generated / published after the fact, in hindsight. So we need these reports. Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed. Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud. See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog. Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain |
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The socrates user manual on pg. 13 states, "When a market is very bearish, it can generate a bearish Reversal that is higher than the peak of a reaction rally and elect it simultaneously with being generated. This takes place normally with the broader long-term Reversals. It is an indication that it is very bearish. " I assume the same holds true for bullish reversals. From the manual it would appear that a bullish reversal that is elected while simultaneously generated would mean the market is very bullish. This means that the election of this reversal is a strong signal. By looking at gold from the low on may, I would say that the market is very bullish. Remember that there is a 3 week window to trade an elected reversal so there would be plenty of time to trade this reversal. That is why I ask for more evidence of these "phantom reversals", to see if they do in fact signal a strong move. If other "phantom reversals" don't result in a strong move, then I'll start to question what these reversals actually mean. Where are you getting your evidence that Armstrong codes these reversals in after the fact? Wouldn't it make more sense that Socrates is generating these reversals than Armstrong manually coding them in for over a 1000 markets everyday? Different case. The case you are referring to would be extremely bullish to the extent that the reversal system is exhausted, meaning no more bullish reversals are available for election. That is the reason why these phantom reversals would need to be generated and elected at the same time. However, in this case, we have multiple reversals already lined up for election that are just getting pushed higher and are failing. There is NO case for reversals of the same direction being generated and immediately elected while other reversals of the same direction nearby are ignored.Would it not occur to you that after so much noise I made about this case https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429 , linking to it in about every 2nd post, people more competent than you would have shredded the case to bits? Do you think that these people are blind and you are the only one who can see? I think you are over-estimating your skills here. Where is your logical thinking? You are also very late with this, so late that it appears that you are just looking for something to vent your frustration. I will ignore you for now, so do not expect any more replies from me. Read about Revision Signals at https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/2019/07/revision-signals.htmlMartin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed. Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud. See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog. Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain |
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How did your simple to find Brazil short go? Hopefully you got out on the day you posted this otherwise you could have taken a big loss
It wasn't pretty. I got out break even. But at least it was simple. If anything this single observation adds to my own pile of evidence supporting the view that it is almost impossible to predict market movement. Martin Armstrong tries to defeat this - quite unsuccessfully. The difference is that he cheats using various methods that create false evidence showing that he can do it. See: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429I have also taken some losses lately. These were the result of my belief that there would be a divergence between Emerging markets, European markets and the US market. This belief comes from what Martin Armstrong has been preaching for years. All wrong. Even Turkey the Basket Case. Rallied. Even in USD terms recently. Not exciting, no new highs, but still quite the contrary to what Martin Armstrong is saying like https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/market-talk/market-talk-october-22-2018/Emerging markets are in meltdown yet no-one wants to admit it.MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up since 2018-10-22. Had you traded based on his statement at the time, you would have lost money. Period. Then in a Socrates report: SOCRATES Detailed Analysis
ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE Tue. Jun. 11, 2019: MSCI EM $ (Global)
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False reaction for now on this level.
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This indicates that the reaction rally is false and should be shorted. WRONG. Kept rallying. So NOT reading his stuff should save some people a lot of money. Or do the opposite of what he says like https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51490978#msg51490978Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed. Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud. See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog. Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain |
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Ah yes another MA prediction has fallen short. 2019 was a consolidation year... No new highs, no lower lows. Yet here we are - all-time highs across the board.
Could you please provide the URL where Martin Armstrong predicted this. Many thanks. I also see that the CAC-40 French stock market has a new high. He predicted a turning point recently, see https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/forecasting-turning-points/but I haven't found the original message where he predicted that this would be THE high as I remember. Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed. Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud. See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog. Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain |
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Do you want compensation for the reversal data, do you have a paypal or venmo? Maybe 75$ for all the Dow data since the data will only be used for analysis purposes. Please, if the reversals are as useless as you say they are, then let me test my theory and come to the same conclusion as you!
I do not have an obligation to share data with any 3rd party. If you think that I do, because it appears to you not doing so would be inconsistent with what you think should be my agenda, then you are wrong. For me, what counts are facts, and I am a person of high integrity. Therefore, I cannot become corrupted. Selling this data would be corrupt. Sharing this data would perhaps violate the Socrates terms of use. What REALLY needs to happen is that Socrates provides historical data, the real one, not the corrupted one as in https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429Please everybody who reads this ask Socrates Customer Support <support@ask-socrates.com> to supply report files, historical data, daily, weekly, monthly elected reversals, blog posts history since the start of the Socrates service in 2016. As a function of the Socrates service, available without subscription, on a daily basis. So that interested potential customers can evaluate the system before subscribing.Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed. Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud. See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog. Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain |
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I'm simply refuting your point that "currencies were a total disaster". Why do you feel the need to be sarcastic when challenged?
Because a one third of a single sample is not a challenge. You have cherry picked the situation of 3 weeks trading period out of three possibilities 1, 2, 3 weeks. Can't you see that is the ultimate joke? olegrey, this is not the sort of stuff for you. Try making pizza or something like that. More fun. If you had 500 samples, and out of 500, more than 250 would be profitable, then I would feel challenged  Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed. Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud. See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog. Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain |
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According to the three timeframe rule his reversal system did successfully predict the rise in the eur/usd week 1: EUR/USD weekly bullish 1.1% loss Week 2: EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.4% gain Week 3: EUR/USD weekly bullish 0.3% gain [/quote] olegrey, you are a genius. You have graduated to the three star degree of a data meta-science engineer. You mastered the extraordinary challenge of single observation based statistics. Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed. Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud. See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog. Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain |
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MTL4, it has been my observation as well that the private blog posts are more accurate than the ones in the Socrates system, as far as reversal. I also had someone message me on reddit that the system itself had some features that were not available to the end user- this person had used some computer wizardry to 'coax out' those features and showed me proof but I believe they are the same as the 150 dollar pro user. This makes me think that the automated ones are different than the fixed ones, or perhaps as Anon says, Armstrong is using his own analysis to cherry pick the ones he thinks are better. And if the Reversals do need 3 periods to go, then it is possible that the performance will be better. But it still does not take away from the fact that Armstrong has made many losing calls and he can be used only as a confirmation tool.
Been very busy lately but I'll try to start the backtest of reversals on the private blog over the weekend.
Martin Armstrong early in his writings where he described his discovery of the reversal system, also described an assumption, that can be found in all of his systems, as follows (I am quoting from memory): If some rule holds in one time frame then it must hold in all time frames. This applies to reversals and forecast arrays. Then the next one is that all so-called models are applied to all markets in the same fashion, regardless of the type of market - stocks, commodities, currencies. Another problem is that the forecast arrays are not sensitive to the strength of the market moves. We will always get turning points, up/down predictions even if there is no indication of sufficient momentum to even consider these signals. I am sure that anyone who studied them will have noticed. To combine these concepts and apply them to systems as non-linear as financial markets is extremely naive. I honestly think that the guy is crazy, reckless beyond any description. You can see the fatal consequences of this in Socrates. For example, currencies are a total disaster, as also confirmed by another poster earlier in this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51605753#msg51605753So how does Martin Armstrong get out of this mess? Answer: By means of a patchwork of adjustments, and (sometimes fraudulent as I have shown here in this blog) tricks. Part of the adjustment process is that he knows from experience which models work in which markets best, and which models in which markets work best in specific market conditions. This is extremely important because the reversal system is a trend following system that has zero chance of success in a mainly sideways trading market such as now. Even then, when Gold developed a clear trend in a seven week rally such as described in https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429, the reversal system failed to elect even a single weekly reversal. What I am trying to say here is that we do not necessarily see the opportunities that the system misses. The problem is that his programs are so shallow and of poor quality, that these programs do not self-adjust. Obviously as I have to say because I can see it in the results. For Martin Armstrong however, this is not a conflict wide enough to not be worked around by some kind of evasive strategy. In this case, cherry-picking is the right term. He would cherry-pick the markets and market conditions for his block posts. Therefore, analyzing the performance of his models by inspecting the predictions made in the blog posts is not useful, because you will not be able to cherry-pick from Socrates reports the way that he does. Still, his blog post forecasts have failed occasionally. Now to think that he has some kind of super-Socrates in his garage is a myth, and the myth will perhaps grow bigger as he gets older. These myths always develop around shady personalities who do not work in a scientific manner. People need these myths as much they need UFOs or the dream of human life on Mars. We would really need a proof that he has such as separate system. That is the way I am operating. It is perhaps possible that two distinct systems exist because of some legacy transition process. But I can tell you from my professional IT experience, that it would be a nightmare to technically maintain two separate systems with the resources that he has (a single programmer), even assuming that his systems are of minimal complexity which I do (after having seen the output they produce). Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed. Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud. See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog. Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain |
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Wow some real BS in this thread, a lot of it from "newbies" like me. Mostly in support of MA. Tells me something.......
Very motivated by an agenda?
Yes. there are a few core people doing real research. Martin Armstrong is paying a multi-purpose troll as a counter weight. That troll has been using different Ids. Peddles the Socrates system how great it is sprinkled with some fake questions such as wanting to understand the arrays - of course also promoting the conference and so on. Some stories have already been posted by Armstrong himself on the public blog so it is fairly easy to spot, like the BIIB crash pattern match found in the Global Market Watch by coincidence. Not too difficult to pick one success story from 1,000 markets covered by Socrates. All Smoke and mirrors, made up. Look, we have to realize that Martin Armstrong is a con man and most of what he posts is 3rd party stuff, and when it it his own then 50% or more is just show, invented to promote his services. All a big show by essentially a one man band. Have you seen an "About Us" page on his web site? No. I am thinking of creating it here in this blog  Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed. Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud. See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog. Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain |
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First, I can confirm from other sources that the system that MA made available to everyone as Socrates and the one he uses for himself are completely different. Many people are duped into believing this which is unfortunate. I also was hoping to get access to his famous buy/sell charts he posts on the blog occasionally but again never gonna happen (also confirmed). So basically if you think you are going to get access to the actual program he uses by buying a Socrates service, I would urge you to save your money.
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Thank you for posting. Please let me address one point as quoted. There are two possibilities here for the system he uses for himself: 1) that such system does not exist. Highly likely given the fact that a lot of what Martin Armstrong posts on his blog is purely made up as we all know. In that case, the plots with the buy / sell signals are just mock ups of an ideal scenario for marketing purposes. In any case, as I have seen this on video, it is all in hindsight. 2) that such system does exist. In that case it would be fairly easy to set up the publicly available Socrates system to create the trades for his bag holders. In that context, my published observation https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429 of published fake profitable trade signals for failed or missing reversals is simply super scary. Both cases are scary, the conclusion must be to stay away from Socrates. If in fact he has a different system to play with, there would be no reason for him to waste his time with such a risky business of selling Socrates as software as a service. And there would be no reason for him to run conferences, orchestrate the "The Forecaster" movie and so on because his own system would finance all of his hobbies he would ever have such as study monetary history. I have come to the conclusion that if I believe someone then I do and if otherwise I find so many lies as I do with Martin Armstrong then I do not believe anything and I analyze / question anything he says (as others have done as well) and the outcome of that is fairly amazing. This laborious approach works fairly well here with different people in this blog comparing notes. Apart from both scenarios being possible, my own opinion about this other system is that it does not exist. Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed. Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud. See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog. Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain |
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Thank you over45 to give me yet another opportunity to spread the message. For those who do not know over45 is a Martin Armstrong affiliated troll who posts using multiple IDs such as Gumbi ... gets paid for posting here. Not a single word is true. In case you haven't noticed, the cat is out of the bag and we don't need any more confirmation. Here is the article that does not require further confirmation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed. Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud. See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog. Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complainSee armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog. |
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do you think if you keep repeating the same thing over and over people will take your word as gospel? give the guy the data and let him confirm - why don't you?
let him have it. can't hurt your cause - or could it?
It's interesting to see how my goods are in such high demand that even YOU cannot resist asking for them Here is the article that does not require further confirmation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed. Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud. See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog. Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain |
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I wrote in my last response to you that I am not willing to share my data with you. you're not willing to share your data with someone who wants to confirm your hypothesis and claims of fraud? very telling. Thank you over45 to give me yet another opportunity to spread the message. In case you haven't noticed, the cat is out of the bag and we don't need any more confirmation. We just need some way to keep you busy at this site, and it seems to be working. Here is the article that does not require further confirmation: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed. Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud. See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog. Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain |
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I wrote in my last response to you that I am not willing to share my data with you. Would you please respect my decision. Thank you. Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed. Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud. See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog. Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain |
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