I think someone said they got 50 gold tickets which is worth a fair amount.   So far as I know you can add your referral link, you should ask on that campaign thread though.

Its safe to assume because its easily within an average occurrence.   I got 5000 a couple times already just on 1 spin a day and sometimes I forget to check and lose spins so I've not done that many, I got 500 earlier just anecdotally its not going to be unexpected to gain 20 of this win per year if trying 6 times a day.
  I believe all the 5000 prizes are over 1% probability or 13m out 1 billion possibilities, bar the golden tickets the 500 and 50 are even more probable and likely to occur so its easy to speculate how much you might win of each after a year because it'll average out.    100k satoshi isnt a kings ransom about .66 gold grams now, its reasonable if you did play that much every day.    Maybe we can test this out, the site can count my gifted wheel wins perhaps; some will be more lucky then this and some less but its entirely reasonable as an aspiration.    
   I agree its a multi year prospect in its price vs this consideration, almost anything is multi year and this one isnt half as ambitious as half the hopium prospects I see around.   Someone who adverse to gambling, risk and any uncertainties is entirely unsuited to this area but I wonder how they stumbled onto a gambling site then     I reckon crypto is always going to be transactional in its nature

Observers is a good idea, I'm far more likely to get people joining if they can look first.


4x 9 with only 4 players is a freak occurrence, you can disregard it as anything to worry about because you may never see it again.   I usually hope for random luck but I dont think its a good strategy.   My last hand was on the flop Queen, King, 10 , 9, J.   No skill win 

229 BTC       Thats a heck of a problem to have, wow.     I hope LN becomes more of an ordinary thing in use.



The thing to consider here is the assumptions in the question.    A wheel is normally equally weighted at all points but in this case its virtual so some sections of this wheel have far more weight to them then others.    Even in a real casino they have to be extremely careful to avoid bias and wear in the roulette wheel, apparently it does occur naturally that bias develops to certain numbers.    I think on the TV show wheel of fortune it was so large they just placed more cards around the wheel to represent rare or likely events, in this case Rolex is so rare that wouldn't be possible.
  From the chart above, 50rp is about 30% likelihood outcome I think which still makes it alot better then the faucet for me & on 365 spins I get this 110 times maybe (zero and 365 also being possible :p).  I'd be happy with any of the golden ticket outcomes also so collectively thats a range of 174,999 which if we have 1 billion equal weighted possibles is 0.0175% so thats going to need alot of luck.   My best result I got twice was 5000 satoshi and presuming Im not placing the decimal wrong thats like 1.33% chance each day or like 1/3 mil Satoshi on average per year if you maxed the premium benefits out.

The market will always squeeze out as much supply as possible at every price point, high and low before continuing whichever direction has the most incentive for volume.

I've been watching the price around the elon musk high tonight and its also the 2 day average, I think its just below that at present but at 27k as per OP we have the area of the 50 day average and thats been the bottom price for this year so far.   50 and 200 day are fairly significant and as both are rising its still easily a positive market though we are prone to pull backs within that.

Current action Im observing on very short term but bullish action is what I'd expect to be repeated on the radar as it passes the ATH and goes for 50k.    If we see alteration in behavior then greater caution is required to see how its now operating at these rarefied heights we've reached, its surely more dangerous and requires watching carefully for anything erratic.




So my current take is we burst upwards above a 12hr average price trend, then fall back or revise prices back down to the two day average. Then repeat.  Both measures are bullish and obviously we are encapsulated within a larger positive move but ideally if it is moving upwards it would do so in a regular way such as this repeated action.

At this moment, on a weekend we revise prices back to the 2 day average.   Then its reasonable to observe how it proceeds from there, repeating would suggest we do challenge ATH and so 50k is more probable.   Failing to repeat, makes it more complicated to guess direction.

Did Elon join the party, he joined the meme and he loves the general use of twitter or similar platforms.   You cant buy these things when you rich, the attention and jokes is probably ideal for someone constantly busy like him but I dont know he has joined Bitcoin itself.   If he put even 1% of his wealth into BTC (and expenditure) then I'd be far more convinced but how I judge this is by the publicity and fun he gets which isnt about actual usage of BTC.    
  Elon Musk has hosted the meme review on one of the largest Youtube channels, a joke channel where its constantly about having a laugh.  That's his perspective, richest man in the world or not he isn't deadly serious about finance like how Buffet might give his opinion.   Im not a critic in any way on this but his involvement isn't exactly serious.   I'm bullish on Bitcoin when it involves the smallest people in the economy not the richest, its a low key thing but it matters way more to the base line growth of BTC where Elon tweeting is about froth moves in price.  We cant disregard either of these views but they are very different perspectives.

The elon musk high was capped by being in the vicinity of a prior high but this time its clear until the ATH is reached and then we challenge that area on a daily basis with lower volume since that first occured I think we do retrace a few times in order to properly exceed this point on a stronger basis then now.

End of 2018 was a Buffalo run, it got shunted over a cliff in a deliberate cull.   I really dont think we can say the bullish market has been in constant play since 2017, theres been massive tests which ultimately failed and we've fallen upwards as some put it.   A large part of the recent move was from extraordinary measures taken due to 2020 being a unique year but since they cant unwind QE in any proper way I dont think we are ever going to be too negative especially.

Stock to flow is very long term afaik, so six figures in the next five years any time at all would be reasonable and bullish beyond the belief of 99% of populations anyhow.  I think people are jumping the gun to say this year but increasingly we're exceeding normal expectations.

I missed deadline but I'll say 20k just to be most bearish, I said 50 day average previously but that's too high now so prior high as a bottom price is some kind of reasoning though in this time frame highly unlikely if it occurs at all.   The extension of that might be to call summer 2019 as a future bottom price area, again hard to justify and certainly not showing on the cards at present but just relying on greater volatility all things are possible on a pin candle.
   Anyhow you have been far too precise, this is not a criticism of your crypto judgement but the dollar pricing is not stable because dollar is not stable so does it make sense as if its rock solid to make finely drawn extended extrapolated predictions upon its value.      Its a wobbly table carrying far too much weight with decades of wood worm to its structure in play, who knows what it does next which makes all predictions equally wobbly.   The best ideas, conclusions are drawn and explainable with crayons   ie. we dont live in this precise world.    Thread should have been closed March, if the analogue was Mt. Gox it wasnt the end.

Did you get that much from merge mining, if theres alot of people similar I doubt theres the demand to pick that up every day so you want to be early not late.   It was down to 1 sat at one point if I remember right and its produced alot more since then.   I think there was a doge coin tip bot on reddit but it fell apart because it had operated on fractional reserve and people withdrew funds when price rose.    Thats a meme phenomena see GME, if they can offer genuine utility and efficiency then fair enough.  Of the alt coins I thought POS would be the most likely contender and ETH is apparently going that way but I dont know its progress so far.    
  I dont have any DOGE now because I didn't see any USP to it, if its just a symptom of easy dollar then its a short term boom play.   It looks to be top of a fairly regular range, still impressive.   ETH I thought had broken a downtrend of more then one year which probably makes it a better bet.


Bad idea like leverage is a bad idea.   All in isnt required when such grand moves are possible and exact predictions are a mistake which means its a marathon not a sprint so lasting long enough to see your end scenario play out is fairly important.    In 2008 people thought the fall out from extraordinary moves would be a couple years or so, clearly its been a while so obviously its a long game whatever horse/doge you riding this out with.

2017 saw a great many sell offs, thats the biggest difference for me.   We had quite slight sell into this rise I think is how I would view it though 42k to 27k is harsh enough maybe that we have ended that negative I think it takes more time possibly a whole year from last autumn to decide on our direction.
   The nature of high momentum I've seen so far has been above 2 day average alot of the time so perhaps observe that as an early warning to any weakness.   Last weekends I think we've not risen like was true over the holiday period so the nature to this bull run has changed a bit, also I think we are outside the trend true for over a month its now a more variable process still positive overall.

Supply and demand, vs excessive liquidity in dollar standard.   Expanding technology standards, pick your reason because they are great many.    You have to consider questions like this in contrast to all alternatives and as yet Dollar has not yet unwound so we have not yet seen the end of this effect.  The biggest threat to crypto is from competing alternatives but i would say not FIAT at this point which coming to the end of its life term in uselessness and efficiency will collapse considerably it appears as integrity is compromised and unretrievable from here.

Simplest way to put the interest is that if you received 1 BTC ( per year) before buying any FUN token then after 12 months at the maximum benefit now you will receive 1.25 BTC in interest every year.   Obviously thats a high roller to get that much interest, so theres various levels that will apply to a lesser extent but at some point the tokens will pay for themselves in that gain realised via site usage and its slanted towards long term users of the site.   Some maths genius could take all the data applicable and put it out as a graph for the various gains per the cost of buying the token.  There will be some feedback in the price beyond speculation which is something I like to see.    1% cashback on bets includes events betting I think so I like that bit and probably just the free wheel additional spins is the most obvious benefit I like just because I might get a Rolex or those golden tickets, I got a much better chance now on a daily basis I think thats my favorite.

https://freebitco.in/static/html/token/user.html?tag=fbtc_web_banner

Flick through this FAQ a few times to weigh up but it comes down to benefits given over time.   Any of the big price predictions on BTC are going to take years anyhow, if you are sticking around for that then theres no negative in involvement here imo.


APR means annual rate so its paid daily but only in tiny increments like 1/365.   After a year it adds up to that rate, its actually showing the daily rate as well in settings.   Also it compounds etc.    So when it says 25% daily interest, its talking about giving a quarter more interest not a quarter of the capital on top.   Its still a good benefit as in effect its giving back the purchase price of the FUN, thats how I read it.   

The odds can be wrong, Im usually leaning towards being bearish price prediction for anything medium term or 1 year (weak hands sell I always expect it) ; even I'd say 20k is less likely then 50k at this moment.     50 day average would be the downside target about now, I said that prior to it being hit recently but I still think its reasonable now as a rough boundary to negative sentiment till expectations especially change.    Bigger changes and this year long long correction idea rest on Dollar and looking at Dollar index we lack strength therefore we are not weak in BTC in expectation.   If Dollar liquidity drys up then we enter a harsher landscape and all these negatives may easily come true, its winter but its not snowing we are pretty lucky in the ongoing outlook so far.   Just normal profit taking and price cycling from what Ive seen and I still dont know or expect us to break up or down especially.

Rip   BIG didnt seem even good odds to go underdog there though BIG are normally upto the task.    OG +1 over Astralis is bet I see tipped but thats still quite extreme for me, the odds are only 2x and its 2.5x for 3 maps so it equates to the same and I'll take the 3 maps but my confidence is way below 100% on that one just an idle underdog type bet I guess.   Only that OG werent bad yesterday I'll go with it, I didnt see Astralis to judge this but I presume they bounce back and very possibly win this 2 maps flat.   Odds for that is unappealing to me though but not terrible considering they are #1


Today the end of North was announced btw, relevant as they spawned and ejected Magisk as unwanted which says it all really.

Its more likely they just spread out the time to claim and in effect reduce faucet value that way also.   It could be variable by market price how long the time is rather then exactly hourly, presumably that helps upset any bot use also as a side benefit.


This is just my impressions but from what I've read right now you buy and receive a discount on FUN and Freebitco is holding these for you till March 15th then it goes live.   At that point if you want to sell back to BTC then you can, it will also lose you any holding bonus from having the FUN token on your account.    In some cases a bigger user of the site will actually be better off to not sell just hold the token and receive enhanced benefits hence its labelled as a loyalty or premium token for this site.
   Outside of Freebitco its also a freely traded token on various exchanges, so its long established in that way.   Such a large site as this backing the usage of the token has bought the price back to rude health and presumably supports it long term in line with holding benefits given.   I'm not yet clear if FUN token works beyond buy/sell function in this site, perhaps theres deposit and withdraw but my current guess is no and also no to your question on gambling the token instead of using BTC, its possible I read it wrong but I presume it just keeps things simple that way.

Its happened more then once but thats an impressive scale of loss, some of it will be corrupt practice or even theft from those billing in various ways.  Often I hear of sports stars who lose alot or all money to their accountant who files 2 books and the fraud is not discovered till there is no cash left.   This is a good point in favor of always supporting your community and family who should in turn benefit you over the course of your life, not everyone has this perspective but Im just talking about long term investment really not exactly charity.   So with 111m you can provide housing with a supportive policy while also gaining some income from the rental revenue, this does require alot more thinking and work then simply just spending.   Simplest policy I'd say is always repay debts first, including all future costs that is also a kind of debt to the future so max out pension etc.
    Money is a strange thing not as simple as it seems, capitalism only works really because you cant ever exclude the constant circulation of capital in an economy  either productively or wastefully.   Get the lump sum but also buy an annuity and pension with this etc.   Or if you got no clue what that is do that get the regular sum is fairly easy to argue.

Think I can remember Doge being 1 sat, who knew the dogo would last this long


As a holder you gain a benefit and greater returns then normal, depending on your luck that could be great but there is definitely a interplay or balance to hold for this benefit and the natural tendency of any market which rises to sell for profit taking.       If the price is going to accumulate from these holds and you are bullish about a rising population for FUN then maybe overbuy your target for hold and sell the excess to take profits.  This might be the best compromise, otherwise you'd have to calculate with ninja accuracy the correct time to sell, forfeit holding bonus or reset its progress anyway and gain the free cash flow.  
  Obviously BTC does sell off from time to time, I do expect this to be a thing but I generally hold anyhow hence I didnt see it was too much hassle to have FUN also.   For most people the average gain for holding will be better then trying to time top and bottom etc.   there are famous wreckage of many threads going back many years where people tried to cleverly say they were out only to misjudge when to reenter and lose far more then they gained.    I'm mostly concerned is it a viable market, is there a net gain or whats the bias vs dollar and other alternatives.  If DXY regains and fails to find prior lows as a ceiling we could find some challenge to crypto near term, just speculation about 92

Nip winning is big news and the thing is then to figure out, is that due to Nip strength or Astralis weakness or specifically a map etc.       I saw a tip to back OG over BIG but I had my doubts though I like NBK I think BIG is easily more cohesive and consistent in results.   I went over 2.5 maps but might have lost that one too, not sure as I only just sat down so missed most of this, OG was showing 4.3x odds [now 5.9x] but cant say I know to take it or not except as a blind guess so this is why I have to watch but not been able to today.
   Yea missed adding to my losses there, BIG take and deserve the credit for holding strong.  OG get wiped but could win this on another day

Its not easy to be confident during a fall or expect a rise when its not especially shown that previously.  I think most trades are a kind of momentum where people see some trend and expect it to just continue.

We are out of trend which makes it harder to regularly spot the activity in a stable way.   I would go on various measures I notice like the 12hr momentum and how that is in line with burts of price gain quite often.



  Here on this chart we stay above 12hr on the way up but when we lose and fail to regain that measure it starts to be part of price decay or profit taking perhaps and then now also the 2 day average is challenged which represents fast buying.

Its because as you said you haven't used the account for years.   The faucet reward is bigger for people who've used the site, it does mention this on every faucet claim how close you might be towards reaching a higher level per hour.
  I dont know the FUN tokens will help just plain faucet collection, the biggest variance regularly is the BTC price going up and down.    The greatest tip right now for you as a small faucet collector is to go register for the newsletter and now recently they send a wheel of fortune entry once per day and thats going to be greater then all your faucet collections + you might get a nicer prize like 5000 of rp, lottery tickets or satoshis & a few rarer bigger prizes.
  Thats a pretty big bonus for those fully holding but its not altering faucet from what I read.   If price crashes it'll go up, the one small consolation in life :p

I will use the extended cashback time to accumulate a few FUN for speculation, the sell function is allowed from 15th March onwards.   Not sure if withdraw for FUN or deposit even would be a thing or not.   
  Considering BTC just went up 12% fairly suddenly the price has kept up surprisingly well so far.