I need to have a crash course on the actual mechanism that solves the Nothing-at-Stake problem in NXT!

My current understanding is that there is none, and it is therefore a no-buy.

Since we are now in page 200 which is kind of a lot... perhaps a quote of the OP is in order... 


Today's wines are very various cheaper varieties (kind of prooftasting for Malla Courtyard Café that opens next week). We will have some nice options available also, and courteously ask our guests to reveal their favorite drinks in advance so that we can stock up.

Cigar tasting - Cohiba Siglo II and Romeo y Julieta Wide Churchills. The Malla Cigar List is currently 14 varieties, and we are slowly enlarging the selection to the more exotic brands. The flagship is now Cohiba Behike 52, retail €55.

The limousine fleet also received its first addition yesterday, BMW 760i Lang with red leather (not the pictured car).

I did not have time to promote it. There is now a good head start for the current players as they have forecasted 15/36 rounds. On the other hand, there are some predictions that are bordering elimination (bluemoon is busted if it hits $4 in 2014-8-31, which imo is a very realistic possibility, and wachtwoord is almost surely out by then )

Next month let's suck some new blood in, shall we?

Bitcoin bubbles have no chance of happening with the existing players' money. A new generation that is exponentially larger always has to enter, for the prices to rise to the new levels. This is the reason why critics call it a pyramid scheme. But it is nevertheless true.

What distinguishes Bitcoin from a pyramid scheme is that a typical pyramid does not do anything useful, or the utility is very small, and there is no network effect. So when there is no "next generation" to be recruited, it collapses.

With Bitcoin, on the other hand, the utility of the network grows (according to Metcalfe's law even quadratically) relative to the number of bitcoin holders. So there is no collapse; when everybody has bought into Bitcoin and the value per unit is really high, they will just continue to use it happily ever after, because as a monetary technology, it is superior to all alternatives that have been tried in the past millennia (mainly: precious metals and fiat).

The second prediction round results are here!

We have 8 entries in the game, and all submitted a prediction for all 7 months (price in last day of June, July, ... December).

The summary of the monthly predictions is as follows:

Arithmetic average is the simple average of the weighted simple average of all the predictions. The high values affect this a lot, for which reason it is generally a rather high figure, even for the nearest months.

Geometric average is the weighted simple average of the geometric average of all the predictions, scaled to 100% (due to geometric averaging, the sum of the geometric averages is only about 50%). This is what I would use as the consensus average.

Median is the midpoint of the probability density (geometric averages used), and would be near the consensus "most likely case".

Mean is the slot with the highest probability (geometric), and would be near the consensus "most likely case" as well.

Months go from June to December. mBTC, decimal comma.

I will send the "orange sheet" to sgbett and he can distribute it to the contestants.

That something is not only questionable, but also overvalued, does not make it any more interesting as an investment for me 

My problem with NXT is that it was IPOed, which I think is not a way to create a coin, because there are no economic ways to distribute it. Due to that issue, I haven't cared to even look what it is doing, since I don't believe it can fly based on that alone.

This got resolved by the recipient installing a different browser.


True.

Despite lulz, that was a swift ignore.

I wasn't looking for a bargain.. but it does have 13 buildings (8 with roof on) with total floor area of 5000 sqm with 13 ha park and 39 ha other land. I heard that even one of the core devs is paying a visit during the first conference there in 27-29 June. 

About 1.36M. Considering that it's more than there exists, it is safe to say that XMR is cheap  

EDIT: Ah, did not take into account the most recent drop. Anyway, just added BTC10 to the buy side today, some of it maybe fulfilled already.

And 680 is the standard 61.8% retracement. No wonder we are gathering steam 'round here.

If you thought that they were worth having at 650000, why don't you buy more as at 200000 they are a bargain?

I fully support this kind of thinking. Instead of planning the coin to live 2 weeks for a premine&pump or 2 months for a quickmine&pump, the plan to have a steady and slow emission (the slowness absurdly enough translates to "high inflation" when all the competition is instamined and has therefore a "low inflation" at the time when the coin is actually buyable by the users & investors) over 2 years is preferable to me, with the time well spent in developing functional and secure resources how to use it, and distribute it to the hands of BTC powerhouses.

I am not interested in jumping in to anything that does not have a realistic long-term chance of success. Monero has it, so it does not matter a squat what the price is during the following 6 months (except that if it goes down, I will buy more). When I started with BTC, the first thing it did after I bought at $3 was a drop to $2. No problem, I first sold at $200+

The concept is elusive. Today, you can purchase 10 smartphones for the price of one phone call to your lawyer. Smartphones aggregate functionalities that did not all even exist 20 years ago. The producible stuff is getting smaller, cheaper and more capable, fulfilling the promise of ephemeralization.

On the other hand, assets that are scarce, like real estate in prime places, or gold, are holding quite well. Even if we transpass the cost of energy and gold becomes easy to produce, RE will still hold its value.

As for human service, some say that it cannot be bought with money at all in the future if we enter into general abundance. I don't believe this, however. Even though I myself don't generally work, or sell my services for money, I am still inclined to do this if someone presents a good offer since the price offered is the concrete proof of the value of my time, and doing something which is highly valued makes me feel good. In this way the monetary incentive does raise my welfare, but it happens directly via the feeling good of being valued, not indirectly via the things money can buy (since the compensation does not increase that at all; I have for long been able to buy all that I need).

The price will anyway be whatever the market will bear, and the marginal miner will mine at a loss. The reason why "illegitimate mining" (stolen resources in a way or another) is bad, is the reduced legitimacy of the product.

PoS-coins are all generated without any burn of capital ("free coins"). In my eyes they are illegitimate AND economically unfunctional. Monero at least is economically functional, even if a large % of the coins were generated with stolen resources. Economically it does not make a difference.

I have never been daytrading BTC. I sold in Nov-Dec and bought back in Feb, so my classification would be "swingtrading". Before and after that I had very little in exchanges. Of course as the price rises again, I'll have to figure out how to divest. I am open to suggestions from all lawful buyers who pay first, after the price crosses $3000.


Problem with people's natural instinct is that they sell in the meager upticks in the early part of the move and then don't sell when the price goes ballistic, which would be a good time to sell (with a plan).


I also lost BTC250 with Mt.Gox, and I am not proud of it since it was a losign proposition to start with. But that was still only a fraction of my gains made by swingtrading last winter.

I could believe that I would hedge 10% of my Bitcoin fortunes to gold in the next 10x upmove. For every BTC10k it'd mean the sale of BTC1k, multiplied by about $5000...

For $5M you get 125 kg of gold.

Certainly there are people who own a tonne of gold (1/180,000 of the gold stock) but they are fewer in number. It is much easier to buy 1/180,000 of all BTC, since that can be done by investing a manageable $44k...