2017 the dollar index dropped the majority of the year and in reverse you have DXY rising over most of 2018, that was quite a stark contrast in FIAT strength which shows up in these nominal strength judgements for BTC.   Could also look at FED policy, QE programs and rates at that time and also the election cycle for indications of FIAT vs crypto in determining the price and its variance between the peak of 2017 and the low afterwards.
   Obviously people refer to the halvening event as well but none of these factors are in isolation, overall its best to be bullish as long as the population of users in Bitcoin is increasing its then likely we do have a background or base line price which is rising.  
   Its far harder to judge the BTC price accurately by the highest prices, theres so much froth and hype, where as the lowest point which also mark the lowest interest from the disinterested casually involved is probably more accurate over the long term.   The froth price can certainly recede yes, dont bet everything on the highest prices sustaining.

My read on that is they allow the withdrawal on the other blockchain but would then burn what exists in equivalent amount on the ETH blockchain and that keeps the equity value overall equal between the two.  Rather then duplicating which could be the same as dilution of value.   GAS fees might drop in forthcoming ETH changes, they altered the bid system for GAS recently I wasnt following it too closely but they are burning ETH there also with the idea fees will become less variable plus the whole POS thing.


It wont be a fixed amount because some are bought or gained and also house edge isnt exactly fixed now with FUN token also varying it.  So long as it raises revenue and its cheaper then advertising then its within the website model I think.  I reckon quite a large amount of people get a golden ticket almost every day from gambling or more if really betting with size, since it covers both chance and the sports events etc. thats a definite prospect for alot of bettors.

Im unfamilar with the whole enterprise, was just reading this I think related news - https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/114479/polygon-hermez-merger-matic-hez-tokens-ethereum-projects?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss

The prior trend doesnt cap us off till about 55k or slightly lower, thats alot of space.  However considering volume we are likely to hesitate around 50k or slightly lower perhaps, thats the previous closing price quite a few weeks this year.   To me I still expect the 200 day average to be some gravity for the moment, we do have a slight range here or sideways action that would match that movement.

I like it, seems pretty big and its been a while since we had on chain gambling if I remember right.   So that means it could be decentralized in its basic nature I guess and pretty appealing to many.

BTC price did indeed pull back from its fast movement recently, back to weekly average makes it still bullish and I think some support line also (prior volume)  on just recent lows.   I'll use up my lotto tickets and speculate those sats on this bounce :p   We meander across the 200 day average , a path worn smooth is easiest to follow.

I dont think its strong resistance vs the prior uphill climb that was the prior range trade.   Now its supported by prior range, we just pulled back to the weekly average.   I can see it spiking to 49k even if we later sell off.

I have that penciled in as a near term target topside but also I expect or think its best to watch for weakness which Iam seeing right now.



2 day moving average, not great significance but if we stall it can lead to some selling and I would speculate or at least be aware of the scenario where we can sell off for a bit here.   Asia main market trading hours are just opening right now.  If we look at Dollar index there is not great call for concern in an obvious way but we are elevated over 3 months still hence some retraction in price to service dollar leverage is a normal process.   So just looking for that, if it recovers back above the 2 day average then false alarm.

43k is weekly average, wonder if we can reach that.

With the price so bullish I dont agree with not using the free spins up asap because the amount rewarded can be adjusted down.   I dont think we move in such a massive way but if price doubles you wont get as much from the same spin, use it today and any SAT prize gained will double along with the price.    All depends on your outlook, there is a very reasonable argument that we have arrived at the tail of price rises and it now becomes more likely we repeat back to 30k or so.
   My current guess is not that we do a full loop in pricing (i.e. wheel spin returns to full 5000,500,50) but its fair to say its more profitable not to just assume we continue in one direction without respite. We are teetering atop the 200 day average, till Sunday Im not yet sure completely we have secured this area & I've no idea what bad news lurks out in the darkness waiting ready to strike.

Its very positive action at the moment, above 12hr and 2 day moving average and staying above those measures despite tests.  12hr is just a trading measure yet its stayed above for a while now and sooner or later the price must rest some, the true test is within the slight sells that occur and we can judge how strong the move is by that I think.
   

Larger picture I would guess its relative to the 200 day average and we are right on that also hence we are within some slight hesitant action is my take.  Any big price in my consideration has a magnetism to it that can attract and repel us and thats still smaller then the larger picture but has influence in trading terms.  It might be enough that traders sell off some, take profits and we realize some lower price, to me thats a normal process that comes within each wave on a chart.

This post marked the market low generally, I think dollar index topped out then and general markets also had been selling.   They its reversed and crypto especially responded with the rise seen upto the current pricing.   Only to that level and not any lower shows price action as quite positive, I had thought it would require a flush or spike down before actually regaining price is a significant way and passing 50 day average etc.
   Thing with a price lower is somebody finds it a good thing, a lower price encourages buying similar to almost any market like a supermarket even.  So long as the utility is the same and nothing much changed in a substantial way dont be too negative on just lower pricing any more then a shopper is negative on a sale in a shop.

I have not heard of ETH staking at a casino, that was my first thought as that is starting to be a thing.
   A casino should be relatively safe so long as they are established and making profit why would you want to go elsewhere, the company making money will surely continue and can justify the returns given to you.   Exchanges are kinda similar but depends if you like to gamble or not.  FBC recently setup a loyalty token and gives a return of between 45% and 10% currently if you choose to lock for some time, also they might enable gambling with that token if I remember right.   

I drew in some resistance for just below 50k but its speculative based on closing weekly prices.  So far momentum has stayed with the price action and there is little to doubt so far, when we stall a little bit some might speculative on weakness then but seems like it would continue for now or quickly resume on any falter.

Its not just a one off instance I've seen similar before, often its cheaper to take over an existing project then start from beginning and FUN was already a gambling token in action for some years.   Theres details given on this but they have taken it over from the original creators, I think it will take time to come into an economy of its own perhaps more then a year but so long as the benefits to holding continue it should pan out I think is fair assumption.

On the rates I'd guess the initial promotional rates are superior, 45 is an obvious headline rate and so 25 compared to that I considered worth having longer term.  I'm taking the 15 day term on just small speculative amounts as well.

Its quite unusual today that the Euro is falling vs the Dollar because dollar rose yet BTC is also very positive and rising too at the same time.   Normally it would not do this but its beyond just a normal positive move I guess.   I'm not yet certain if it indicates strength or some ending to the move possibly.   So long as it closes above the 200 day average going into end of the week I would guess it was genuinely bullish action, my judgement short term is to stay above 44.5k or two day average for momentum in order to maintain the story for recovery this year.   Otherwise as a trade I might guess on people speculating downwards in the usual pullback type of action.

Greed is just the reason why I'd lose my winnings, also thinking a game will provide income overall regularly is quite greedy vs the normal idea is has to be earnt.   Mostly its unrealistic, also those who recognize good luck and banks some of their capital in respect of that should do far better on average those who believe they deserve all good luck continually.  This amounts to acting greedily hence greed is not good or profitable in betting.  Stay humble walk away richer whenever possible                                                                                                              

The house is about revenue which also means you can win sometimes because thats part of the game, really determining your likely odds is not about how anyone feels that day but more about how many won recently perhaps.   I much prefer sports betting for that reason, the crowd can be completely wrong on the odds and prospects for a game and you can just focus on the game itself.   Slots and other games its much harder to determine the chances I will win big, just set a budget and keep to it because another day can completely different and its best to try it all on just one day.

We didnt reach extreme panic, that counter is a bit off.   That was always a normal decline and pullback relative to the rise.   I dont really trust when people feel obliged to buy because of a price, it'll sell off when they are pressed in any way similarly by price again.   I'm way more for the gradual more certain regular rise of people who buy to utilize BTC in some way, the ways of speculation might be more spectacular but its also not the true backbone to what makes the market.
  I dont think we reached the bottom price on the recent lows, it was negative but dont think it went so far as reaching the bottom price of just regular users rather then speculators.   Not too surprising, we have excessive amounts of dollars from politics spending out of control, it wont always be this easy.

Do we need constant bullish news to maintain momentum and keep the price high I wonder if that many will sell if they dont see or expect to see further gains, seems to be that aspect is always there to some extent.  We move short term but also the long term is far slower and more reliable in its base line to BTC gains and Im most interested where is that at.   We just pass the 200 day average today, keeping above that is very bullish as a switch from where we were at just end of July or so; volume seems decent it wouldnt take otherwise imo.

Considering Dollar is a lost cause overall due to non stop QE and poor yields for any holders, there isnt a great reason to bearish.
Bullish to neutral because we already rose but I dont think we are dropping intra year so no reason not to be be bullish this year

Even wallet addresses I've left unused since 2017 forks could still be transitioned over to the other block chains that appeared or forked after that time.   I didnt update the wallet or touch anything from then till now and it doesn't matter it can still be handled because the blockchain contains that information elsewhere.   FUN updating or doing a burn is not something I'm worried about personally.
  I also got an extra email when I went up a tier with a free spin, so worth  it does give the extra daily spins even though I locked it immediately also and I'll have to wait 90 days for the next bonus amount to catch up as I was already 180 days ahead from my first buy.

Price I reckon pulls back near term and by the measure of its strength during that process it will give a better estimate medium term, just a quick take 42k and 39k areas of interest.

Gold relative to top 500 stocks is the cheapest its been since 2005, its probably fair to say its a unpopular asset that can certainly be appreciated far more in future especially in terms of stability vs volatility likely considering all the debt there is in FIAT now.  Its unfortunate in one way but the performance of gold and miners themselves is not bad, excessive inflation is apparent everywhere so theres profit in margins it just means valuation forward dated is very cheap which as a buyer I dont mind.

  Gold definitely represents the contrarian view at the moment, whatever crypto is doing this is still peak FIAT peak debt, to an extent the world has never seen before.   Like a high and low tide its reasonable to expect change to come and not be avoidable by anyone or any body such as the FED. I presume most people here believe in economics as a natural dynamic not politically dictated so gold is quite reasonable hedge based