I don't think so.


Well I am glad that you don't consider yourself a victim, even though you seemed to have been playing the victim card, as I already sufficiently elaborated in respect to that point.


Yes.  I believe that you were playing such Victim card for the reasons that I already stated.


Your point was distracted in so far it was attempting to get caught upon advantages of longer term users, and seeming to imagine as if longer time Bitcoiners might not be able to relate to some of the potential trials and tribulations of newbies or new entrants into BTC.


Seems like it; however, on the bright side, if you actually are still learning, then that would be a positive angle, for sure.

We all make mistakes, and some of us attempt to learn from our mistakes and some of us will be more successful in learning from our mistakes than others.  I am not trying to position myself as if I might not have difficulties learning some things, too.


Whether you read my response or not is up to you. Whether others read my posts or not is up to them. I write up to the level that I feel that I would like to respond to what I perceive to be the topic and the response points in accordance with my own discretion regarding what I would like to say.  Last time I checked we were posting in a public thread.

¡NOT!


 

Do you even own a watch?

 

Maybe I communicated my idea badly?  I am largely suggesting that we have been confirmed to have been in a bear market since mid May.. even though of course, the top of the price was in November 2021 and there could be arguments that the bear trend started in April 2021 after the first peak.. but I am suggesting that such bear market was really ONLY made clear in around mid-May 2022 when the BTC price dropped below the 100-week moving average (which was then around $35.2k), and failed to immediately bounce back above that price within a day or two.


Sure.. but who knew? until later?  Of course you can assert that you knew earlier than me, but it's a little difficult and perhaps even meaningless to proclaim any kind of superior knowledge or insight.. so sure, maybe I am framing the matter in terms of when it became clear to me that we were in a bear market.. which is mid -may.. even though assertions as to when the bear market started can be matters of interpretation too...but those are historical framings and sometimes those historical framings (and the different ways of making them) can be useful to figure out where we are at currently or where we might be going.


Sure... no problem with that as a possibility.. and at the same time, how we frame where we are going and where we have been can have quite a bit of variance, even if a chart may be interpreted in different ways in terms of highlighting which portions we might believe to be more or less important or even more or less relevant.. different interpretations can surely come from looking at charts - and also depending on which chart and perhaps which indicators you might determine to be important including questions that might lay outside of the chart in terms of factors that might not be shown on the chart that can also have quite a bit of variability in terms of how much weight to give some of these outside factors, such as adoption and network effects... for example, or macro and news events, too.. 


Could be.  Depending on where someone is at in their bitcoin journey, some people might not want to accumulate when the BTC price is potentially on the way up.. so if there might be flat price behavior or even lower price behavior or staying stuck in in some perceived lower price arena such as lower than the 200 week moving average (which is currently at around $23,723) even if looking at sub 100-week moving average as relatively low prices (which is currently nearly at $38k)

I tend to be pretty hesitant to proclaim with very much certainty where I believe the BTC price to be going in the short term, but I would imagine that we would likely need to get well above the 200-week moving average and maybe even stay above $32k-ish for a while (getting close to the 100-week moving average) before I will start to feel comfortable to assert that either the bottom is in or the bear market is over.. even though by the time we figure out that it is over, we would likely still be able to assert that the mid-June bottom of $17,593(so far) was the bottom, if that is what ends up happening.


You are not getting me too excited aboutthe price going up.. until at least we start to get close to $30k, and like I said I probably am not going to be satisfied to start getting cocky about UPpity potential until we get above $32k..and surely how fast we go there (assuming that we will go there some day), will likely also affect how confident that I might be about the bottom (of $17,593) being in or the bear market being over.

I am a delayed indicator.. and I don't play around with the price anyhow.  I have a system in which I buy on the way down and sell on the way up and it does not require me to predict much of anything except maybe on the margins and maybe in the longer term, such as 5-10 years or longer that the BTC is going to end up averaging going up from whatever price point that we happen to be.. and I am kind of hoping too that BTC is going to appreciate in value greater than the dollar is depreciating.... but of course, we do not have guarantees and we ONLY have probabilities that have been playing out pretty damned well so far, even though I don't bank on having any kind of guarantees, but instead having sufficiently enough skin in the game that I am going to do way better by the BTC price going up rather than down.. but no need to really worry about already being in sufficient profits, so I don't feel any urgency to reallocate out of BTC or to take meaningful profits.. instead I just skim from time to time as the BTC price goes up and also just spend if I need to (while perhaps holding back on as much spending of BTC during times like this.. if possible)


I hope you are correct, yet I am not ready to even be close to being that bold in any assertions that I make, as I already outlined my general mental framework on the bitcoin price dynamics topic.


I am not clear what you are saying here?

We might consider our dropping below the 100-week moving average in May 2022 as our $6k to $3k move.. so now we are stuck at $3k.. but yeah, of course, we are not going to necessarily know unless we were to drop more.. or maybe we end up having a recovery that is similar to April 2019 - in which we spent nearly 5 months bouncing around in the $3.5k to $4.2k price range, and then finally broke from $4.2k to $13,888 that was a three months price move, and thereafter returned back to the $4ks to $6ks at least a couple of times (once in late 2019 and again in March 2020 - which some folks consider to be a bit of an aberration).

I thought that he also confirmed that his breath was like a donkey's.


I am confident that there would have been shit tons of content in such podcast, if it were to have had happened.


Surely, you must be lost xzy887.


Trying to outsmart smartie pants?

 

Why so wordy?


FTFY


Why would you believe that you have missed the train?  We are still around $3,500 below the current 200-week moving average (which right now is about $23,723).

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

Seems pretty lucky and pretty cheap to be able to get bitcoin for under the 200-week moving average for the past 4.5 months, and all of a sudden you believe that it is too expensive to continue to buy BTC merely because the BTC price went up from $19,300 to $20,300.. which is either $4,500 below the 200-week moving average as compared to now $3,500 below the 200-week moving average.

Kids these days.

I went to the linked Bitcoin Magazine tweet, and I also went to the Bitcoin Magazine article contained in tweet, and it said that the new Cash app needed to be upgraded in order to be able to do the receiving of lighting network payments... so I tried to upgrade on my phone.. and so far no upgrade seems to be available, as far I can determine..

I tried several times by opening the Cash app and forcing it to close, and I reopened it, and still nothing.  Also, I went to the app store to see if there was another upgraded version, and it appears that I have the latest version.. I also restarted my phone.. and so far, on my end, I cannot see an upgrade to be available.   


Fuck that nonsense, serveria.com.

You don't consider $17,593 and mostly staying quite far below the 200-week moving average for nearly 4.5 months to be a "proper bottom."

Horey sssheeeeitttt!!!!

They got way the fuck more bottom than we got tops.... (sorry (maybe?) that I am interjecting so much French in this post, but outrageous consessions call for outrageous counter-responses.. thus justifying my use of so much French in this response).

They also got a dip down to $28.5k-ish in mid-2021 before we even arrived at our relatively mediocre whimpy $69k top.

They have gotten plenty of bottom over the last year or so, so I would hardly even concede that their bottom has not already been "proper".. they got as much bottom as they deserve.. and perhaps even more bottom than what they deserve.

Your hypothetical is internally contradictory Japinat, in terms of presuming futility involving acquiring most of the remaining bitcoin and also still agreeing that bitcoin has value that might take El Salvador longer to catch up or to surpass other countries in relative wealth.

I don't disagree with your other implied point regarding some kind of need for El Salvador to have something that they produce of value that contributes to their ability to be able to accumulate bitcoin, so of course, it remains a challenge for any country to figure out how they can increase their generation of value so that they might be able to accumulate more bitcoin..

So if we were to get into some kind of fantasy hypothetical and El Salvador were to be able to generate enough surplus income that they could purchase (or mine) all of the new bitcoins, then currently they would be acquiring about 900 bitcoins per day (that is 144 blocks per day x 6.25 BTC per block), but so even if they were to ONLY accumulate 10 bitcoin's per day for the next 8 years - that would be 29,200 bitcoins (10 per day x 365 days x 8 years).  Even acquiring 10 BTC per day, it seems that El Salvador would be sitting quite pretty in that kind of a hypothetical in which they ongoingly accumulated small amounts of bitcoin on a regular basis  

Maybe in such a hypothetical of accumulating 10 BTC per day, they would not be the richest of countries in the world, but they may have increased their wealth quite a bit relative to other countries who had not been following such a consistently ongoing BTC accumulation strategy...(assuming that they do not lose the bitcoin along the way).

Maybe this is a bit of a fantasy for a country the size of El Salvador to accumulate 10 BTC per day, but the scenario seems to be much more realistic than your opening assertion Japinat that it would even be possible for El Salvador to acquire "most of the remaining" bitcoin... something like that (such an aggressive approach that would accumulate so much of the new BTC supply on an ongoing basis) is just not doable, practical or reasonable based on bitcoin's game theory and incentives, even for countries with the deepest of pockets.

I doubt that you have explained the idea of downtrend any better than BinarySumo.

There was an implication from BinarySumo that we were in a downtrend and such downtrend was continuing because we were in the middle of it.

You seem to be agreeing with BinarySumo but saying something a bit different.

Yeah, of course we see that there was a downtrend from November until mid-June.. but then since mid-June we have largely been stuck in the low, and sure perhaps the bottom is not in, yet can we imply that we are in the middle of a continued downtrend?

I also have no problem with the idea that we are in a bear market that had largely been confirmed since around mid-May - so even though the idea of a bear market presumes that the odds for going down are greater than the odds for going up, we still should not be implying that the bottom for sure is not in because maybe we have ONLY slightly greater than 50/50 odds of going below the already hit bottom of $17,593 from mid-June.. which is already nearly 4.5 months ago.

I request to see that pumpkin to be punctured (aka carved) in some kind of materially meaningful manner (mmm).

 

There is no need to play the Victim card, and relatively speaking, even for you - of around 6.5 years registered on the forum, you are starting to accumulate enough time that even a relatively modest investment amount over that amount of time, such as $10 per week would have gotten you to more than 1 BTC of accumulation with a total of $3,360 invested.  Of course, if you had been able to be more aggressive, such as $100, you would have had 10x the amount invested with $33,600 and around 10 BTC accumulated...

Of course, people (including newbies to bitcoin) need to start from where they are at and to be as aggressive as they can in their accumulation strategies without becoming too aggressive that s/he ends up panicking at various points along the way.

You don't exactly have my strategy correct, to the extent that my strategy is relevant, and for some reason you have a tendency to ignore information pieces, even when they are presented to you..... and I already stated that I have only admitted to having more than 0.63 BTC, and I tried to ask you what whale status is to you, exactly?  Another problem with your attempt to focus so much on the individual, rather than the idea would be that you have tendencies to attribute a kind of "talking your book," and you should realize by now that my own way of framing matters has to do with describing strategies that depend upon what stage a BTC accumulator/HODLer might be in... accumulation stage, maintenance stage or liquidation stage.

If a person is in BTC accumulation stage, then s/he would likely be accumulating at any price and also combining strategies of DCA, buying the dip and lump sum buying.

So, instead of getting caught upon what my particular circumstances might be (that seems way too distracted), focus on your own circumstances to figure out where you are at?  Are you in accumulation mode, maintenance mode or liquidation mode... and for sure, since we still seem to be so early in bitcoin's adoption, it seems that there are way more people who are going to be in BTC accumulation stage rather than either maintenance or liquidation stages. 

Do you believe that there is something wrong with my perspective or that I am talking my book or that my comments are not necessary if I have a tendency to be aiming more of my comments at newbies who are in BTC accumulation stages?  rather than directing my comments at longer term folks who may have entered into maintenance and/or liquidation stages?  Is there a conflict of interest?  Is that what you are trying to suggest Wind_FURY?

How much value might we presume to be a target BTC accumulation level for any particular member may well have to do with which part of the world that they live and how much they believe that they need to either make it to fuck you status or to be on the road to fuck you status, but overall even if the actual BTC accumulation (or even dollar equivalent) is figured out, all of the individual factors would also need to be accounted in terms of figuring out the goals, how to get to the goals and maybe even how to maintain staying within the goal target area once arrived within parameters that are close to the goals, within the goals or exceed the goals.

Individual considerations include but are not limited to cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets) and abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.

It can take a long time to figure out each of the subcategories within the individual considerations, yet no one has to figure them all out before getting started investing in bitcoin.. and accordingly any person could start by investing small or investing something that they believe is reasonable and prudent - and continue to study their own circumstances, and perhaps tweak their investing strategy from time to time along the way.

Does this help you to understand or perhaps to focus ur lil selfie MOAR better Wind_FURY?  Or do you feel compelled to continue to focus on how my situation is supposedly different or supposedly better than everyone else's?  Remember yourself.. nearly 6.5 years.. a decent amount of time in bitcoinlandia... and cannot continue to be calling yourself a newbie or proclaiming newbie victimhood, right?  You have had nearly 6.5 years of opportunities to plan, put plans into place and to tweak your plans from time to time as you (within your complete discretion) deem appropriate, reasonable, relevant and even prudent to your own circumstances.  Regrets?  Any?  If so, what you going to do about it now? Play victim card or take responsibility for your own situation and compare ur lil selfie to yourself, no?

I am not even attempting to ridicule you.

I was pointing out an issue in terms of your way of phrasing the issue of your claiming to be the most optimistic of HODLers.. and surely the evidence does not support that statement, and that's why it would have been better for you to frame your claim in terms of your opinion or your feeling.. like I mentioned.

Regarding my alleged legendary whale investor status, there's no evidence to support that claim either.

Yes, i use various hypotheticals in order to describe goals and BTC accumulation strategies, and sure I have had the forum legendary title for several years (even prior to the merit system), but that still would not be accurate to hone in on my supposedly having "whale investor" status, and maybe defining a whale as having more than 0.63 BTC, then I would be guilty of making such BTC portfolio size admission in the past.

Quoted for Visibility.. I shrunk them a little bit from their original size.

Why would we have a bet over some issue that you made up, brought up and only have tangential relevance to this thread, at best?  I hardly even care about your claims to know a satoshi-like figure - even though you failed/refused to state whether you were going to invite anyone beside nOnce to participate in your next BIG foot viewing.

How does anything that you were talking about relate to this thread?  Yes, we were making some discussions about fairness, but not so much down the path that you seemed pre-disposed to want to take us.

And you seem to get so caught up upon ideas of personalities, while still having had not tried to relate such discussion to lightning network or answering whether you have heard of lightning network.. even though I will grant you that bitcoin is related to this thread.. but not as much as trying to specifically talk about how things that you might be talking about relates to lightning network.

Look at you.

Knows everything.
















Almost



Why not florescent nail polish?  

Girls wear florescent nail polish in your parts of the world, no?  

Do they have any girls there?  No wonder you are so grumpy half the time.

TLDR:  "I am not claiming that I met Satoshi, but I would like to share some vague bullshit in order to make myself appear important."

 


I thought satoshi died in 2010.. Go figure.  You (and others in your ostensibly important circle) had more recent interactions with him.  WOW!!!!!!!

I wished that I had been nicer to you, since you obviously know important people.


Yeah.. but I thought that you interacted with him in 2013, 2017, and 2021?  Are you already "forgetting" your own self-important story?


Oh? He likes to appear in the bull markets just to rub it in, and say I told you so.  That does sound a lot like how satoshi would be in real life.

You must have the right guy, for sure.

Can you let me back in your group now.. or what can I do to make sure that we are buddies in or before 2025?

Anything?

Anything?




Me too? or just n0nce?


Not in bitcoin.  Bitcoin was Beta in January 2009 - but I think that the code had been submitted sometime after the white paper on October 31, 2008.


that's a pretty amorphous idea.


How do you know that he was ahead?  because upon reflection you come to realize it?


Bitcoin doesn't work like that.  We have proof of work.  Of course, we also have early bird gets the worm, but you gotta buy some bitcoin or otherwise invest in bitcoin.. not just have a vision.

Vitalik has a vision of unicorn farts, and I doubt that should amount to a hill of beans, even though he formed a whole shitcoin community out of his lame ass vision.


That's irrelevant.  We are not in 1996 or 2003.. we are right now.. October 24/25 2022.


Other systems have not disappeared.  We have Gresham's law going on in bitcoin, and it will likely take a while to play out. Maybe even another 100 to 200 more years... I don't claim to have any specifics.


We should probably follow you, since you seem to know what is important, right?


Your back to making shit up.. this time you are making a strawman argument, and also imbuing characteristics on the whole thread as if we were united.. even though we may well  be united to determine that you are a dweeb... even though some folks might use another word to describe your demonstrations of wannabe self-importance.


Hopefully, you have figured it out more recently.  Maybe you figured it out in December 2017? Right around the time that you registered on the forum?


Yes.,. you are annoying... and diptwat trolls frequently like to raise the "religious fanatics" claim when they are getting backlash for their being a dick... .. a non-woke dick, right?


Of course, you are a more advanced human, and mature too.  No insecurities nor desires for self-importance, right?


Well good.  At least you're not retarded.


Google translate does not work with Martian, yet.  Nanu nanu.


No one raised that topic, except you...so you could ramble on your own talking points.  Have you heard of lightning network?  It's what we were talking about... or at least trying to.. stay somewhat attached to the topic of this thread..


Elon is that you?  It sounds kind of like you.


Wow!!!!  You have thought of everything.      but have you heard about lighting network?  #asking for a friend (a girl who knows her place... sorry fillippone, I could not resist).

Aren't you the smartest person who ever did live.  With superior communications skills, too.  


I did start out with just a couple of exchanges and one wallet - and then continued to expand in various kinds of ways, but I feel far from capable of understanding quite a few aspects of various kinds of wallets - frequently, I don't even understand how to perform various functions that might be available through a wallet - or to realize the significance of various kinds of changes that come about from time to time.  

Sometimes I will say some of the exchanges that I use, but other times I won't because there can be security implications, and the same is true for some of the wallets that I use or that I have tried.

I have said that I have tried the Ledger and the Trezor, and I have said that I had frequently gotten confused by the Ledger, and then there is one wallet that I had been using since several years ago, and then over time, they added several functions including but not limited to:
1) the ability to see (and therefore to be able to send/receive) BTC forked coins (such as BCH and BGold),
2) differentiation between segwit and legacy addresses,
3) the ability to add a passphrase,
4) the ability to do multi-device signatures and
5) then recently when I was signing in, I went into the menu to create a new wallet, and then I saw that they have 4 different wallet types to choose from which includes:
        a)  Legacy: BIP44, P2PKH, Base 58
        b)  Legacy SegWit: BIP49, P2SH-P2WPKH, Base 58
        c)  Taproot: BIP86, P2TR, Bech 32m
        d)  SegWit: BIP84, P2WPKH, Bech 32

My point is that I don't necessarily know the various trade-offs that might exist with the various kinds of wallet (account) types, and if you recall there had been a pretty BIG campaign by some anti-segwit people to suggest that the whole segwit was going to crash, and so there was a need NOT to move to segwit - and some of those folks are in the anti-lightning groups.  Sometimes I will try to follow some of those conversations, including starting in late 2015, when there were already folks starting to talk about the need for block sizes to increase, and I am saying that sometimes I don't really feel that I know what the fuck they were talking about, but somewhere along the line, I realize that so many folks were framing supposed "technical" reasons when they were really engaging in politics in which they were merely just trying to make it easier to change bitcoin... so sometimes, any of us might not understand all of the arguments, but after the passage of time, I became way less receptive to hearing those arguments - and even arguing that there was no real basis to their technical arguments - even though I don't know much about technical matters.


It seems that each of us try to share our perspective and experiences, and I put my foot in my mouth on a fairly regular basis.  Sometimes members "call me out" publicly, and other times they do it by PM.  Surely there is discretion regarding when to back down, and sometimes members will really get into public battles too (and I have as well), and sometimes one of the members will end up having a public melt down of sorts.. and sometimes other members will purposefully come at you because it seems that they might be trying to trap you or to get you to devolve into some kind of a public meltdown... so it can become difficult to battle in regards to some of the topics, and surely other members will sometimes know way more about a topic from a certain angle - so it is not always clear when to give up, or whether the back and forth is even useful.. and like in this thread.. whether we are on topic..

Pretty soon fillippone may lose his tolerance for our going off topic.. and maybe regret that he did not create this as a self-moderated thread... so in that regard, even though lightning network has been live for nearly 6 years, and sometimes I have been following some aspects of the lightning network threads, I am ONLY recently actually using some lightning network wallets (so far mostly BlueWallet.. and then knowing that cash app can be used for sending lightning but not receiving), so maybe there can be feelings about "being behind," but if we look at normies in the real world.. they sometimes don't even know superficially how lighting network relates to bitcoin.. well normies have a lot of misconceptions about a lot of things related to bitcoin, but if we are trying to get them to start to store some value in bitcoin and then also to maybe transact in bitcoin, we might want them to have some ideas about both bitcoin and lighting network, even if they are likely to tend towards custody solutions in the beginning of their exposure to bitcoin.. unless they happen to be in El Salvador or they happen to be a bit on the geeky side.


Even if this thread strives to promote a Lighting network theme from a less technical perspective, it is difficult to avoid deviations into technical aspects or even to talk about bitcoin and the reasons why people get into bitcoin in the first place - which surely there is going to be a variety of use cases in which investing for long term storage is going to overlap with various ways to transact with bitcoin.


I might be losing the point that you are striving to make - because from my perspective, I see that some bitcoiners have more conviction than others, and even if there might be a tendency to become more convicted with bitcoin the longer that we are in bitcoin, people do lose faith in bitcoin, and frequently they have difficulties getting back into bitcoin if they sold too many bitcoin too soon, or maybe they were waiting for a down that did not happen, and then they sometimes will become bitter... and getting hacked is not a good experience too.. even if bitcoin did not cause the hack.. and bitcoin did not get hack, but they end up losing their bitcoin because of the hack.. or think about some of these more recent experiences of striving to get yield.. and some people thought that they were playing safe because they were "only getting 4% or 8% yield," and they did not realize that the service that they were using (whether Celsius, BlockFi, Voyager or one of the other lending services) were getting even more interest (maybe up to 20%) when they lent out the bitcoin of their customers to 3AC.. so people can become bitter about these kinds of losses.. and even withdrawal from bitcoin based on their bad experiences and may not even know why they had lost all or most of their money - because in part they might not have understood the risk that they were taking and they also might not have learned any lessen, except "stay away from bitcoin."


I agree with the idea that building up your bitcoin holdings is quite likely to give more options to anyone who does that in prudent, reasonable and perhaps even somewhat aggressive ways.

I also agree that in the long term the odds for BTC to continue to go up are quite great, so if you continue to error on the side of accumulating bitcoin, you are likely going to do well with that kind of a strategy (even though there are no guarantees).

On the other hand, I don't necessarily believe that it is easy to outsmart the BTC price and it is possible that people can buy too much BTC as it is going down in price and continue to buy while believing that the bottom is in and the price continues to go lower and lower and run out of money and cause their own panic, even though they likely were doing the right thing by continuing to buy BTC on an ongoing basis.  

In other words, it is still possible to be too aggressive... and then not be able to handle some kind of a cash emergency that ends up "unexpectedly" coming.


One thing revolves around how much obligation any of us might have to disclose in terms of engaging in a bitcoin transaction, and I would attempt to protect myself no matter which way the BTC price went, so sometimes I would set limits regarding how much I would transact in terms of just protecting myself in that transaction.. but also NOT wanting to get into some kind of situation that did not seem manageable to me.... so if someone was acting crazy, there might be some needs to limit them more in terms of how much of a transaction that you would do with them... or just telling them that you don't want to transact with them anymore.. even though sometimes it can be difficult to say those kinds of things to people without causing them to become even more crazy.

We cannot necessarily assume that everyone is making money in bitcoin even if they have been into bitcoin for a long time and the BTC price has gone up.  There are people who figure out ways to lose money, even when the BTC price has been going up since its beginning to have a price in 2010... and at the same time, the last 11 months of the BTC price going down can seem like an eternity.. especially for people who injected a lot of money at prices quite a bit above $40k.. and maybe they were already running out of money when the prices got down to $40k.. because they were betting on (or hoping for?) up.


Well it is not guaranteed that patience and persistence will pay off... and that's part of the reason to be able to ride out the worst of periods, but also realizing that some preparation needs to be in place for the even worse case scenarios.. and try to apportion preparations, and even to change some appropriations from time to time, as needed, so for example, if the BTC price keeps moving against you and you run out of money, at some point, you may well have to just HODL.. or DCA.. but if you don't have a cashflow or your cashflow dries up then you are in an even worse situation.. and you must realize that all of the bad things could happen, and you should have a plan for those many bad things even if they are not highly likely to happen (from your perception and assessment)... I am not sure that I have an answer, except that each person needs to attempt to tailor his/her approach to these kinds of preparations as best as s/he can in accordance with his/her own psychological and financial circumstances.


Well sometimes there are needs to back up what you say with examples or facts or logic, and also sometimes there are needs to recognize when some matters are beyond your abilities to understand, but even if you are asking a question in an area that you do not understand, you can still attempt to frame what you think you know and what you think that you do not know, so at least someone might be willing to chime in.. and sometimes no one will chime in, even if you believe that you asked a good question.


Some people have more difficult times than others to either shake their ideas about "investing in shitcoins,"  and/or to figure out bitcoin's investment thesis sufficiently enough in order to at least considerably lessen their involvement in shitcoins (whether time-wise, psychologically and/or financially).


I try not to blame anyone who takes a while to figure it out, and we do not even need to agree.


Having a mentor or various mentors can be a good thing, even though in the end each of us has to make our own decisions regarding whether to invest in bitcoin, how much to invest and how to treat our other investments and cashflow.  And, since this is a thread about lightning network, we also have to consider how much of out time and energies we want to spend in terms of learning about various lightning network related matters, and once we learn about all these things, are we going to try to mentor others or not.. and likely the mentoring process does not end, because even when you spend time trying to teach others, you are likely to find out more areas that you either do not know or that you do not know as well as you had thought that you knew them.

So maybe it is difficult to find like-minded people in the real world, so you might spend some time teaching and learning through this forum, and then trying to figure out how much you might have willing students in the real world or if they do not want to learn from you, then either they are not ready or for some reason they might need someone else to explain or to show matters to them, and sometimes I will spend time teaching some ideas to someone or to some people in the real world, and I might say that they need to study and look into these matters on their own, and sometimes I will get the sense that they are not trying hard enough and they are not spending hardly any time learning on their own like they want to be spoon fed.. and in some sense there is a need to attempt to meet people where they are at, and sometimes I am not going to be the right person to do that, even if I might spend some time "planting the seed" or going through some refresher ideas, and sometimes, I just feel that I am losing my patience.. so from time to time, I have to take a break from talking about bitcoin with certain people.


Being interested in the topic helps a lot.. and like you said, interacting with the subject matter helps a lot too.


Sometimes we don't know what we did not know, until we learn it from another angle.  So there can be a lot of ways that we have misconceptions about bitcoin that later will get cleared up... Hopefully.
 


Just try to find areas that you are interested in, and maybe in the beginning chime in once in a while, but not too much, and then the more that you follow the discussions, then the easier it should become to expand your participation into more various subject matters.  Sometimes there could be a debate about a certain topic, and if you just go out and find a link to an article on the topic, or a meme or some other way of adding to the conversation, then the topic might expand in your direction.

Let's say that Member 1 says A, and Member 2 says a little bit A, but more B.

And, then you find an article that says sometimes A is true but sometimes A and B are true, and then the article explains why that is the case, and then you explain what the article says, and then you say whether you believe the article or if you might believe member 1 or member 2, or you might say that you believe that they all are full of shit, because there is another important angle that all of them are failing to account for..... so sometimes it takes a bit of time and a bit of reading before you might be able to challenge certain subject matters, but then you can also ask questions regarding some parts of the discussion that you believe are also important, and maybe Member 1 and member 2 will call you a newbie idiot, and so it is not always easy to know how conversations will advance, yet you should not be dissuaded if members disagree with you, if you believe that you are submitting valid information or a legitimate perspective... while at the same time trying to learn or admitting you were wrong if it ends up that you were wrong.
 

I think that the building and growth in terms of the seven network effects better outlines what you seem to be suggesting in terms of the growth of bitcoin continuing to grow.. and also the Lindy Effect idea, too..  (like described in this Bitcoin Magazine article) which largely suggest that the longer a thing is around and thriving, the more likely it is going to continue to survive, at least as long as the time period that it has already been around.


Fuck off with your fantasy spin attempt and pure making up of facts that are not in existence.

There is no such "maybe" because what happened is that Satoshi took a lot of ideas that already previously existed and put them into a package  in which no one else had previously put, nor contemporaneously, either.

Bitcoin had a about a year and a half of running before it got any possible monetary traction in terms of people trying to give a price to it.. and prior to mid-2010, the bitcoins that had been mined had largely been treated like testnet coins... even though later they started to get monetary value.. as we all have come to realize.. and it took a bit of time for such traction to build.


It was premature because it had not yet been invented.  Various aspects of bitcoin were invented, but not the putting together of all of the concepts into the package that bitcoin ended up resolving matters that had not previously been resolved, including the incentives that were created in the whole package and the difficulties to screw with it because of the difficulty adjustments.. and surely the whole package put together a package that was an invention and a new thing, even though it consisted of a variety of existing parts and concepts.


 Fair enough about the communication and internet connectivity technology being better in 2008 as compared with 2003... but still does not mean that bitcoin was invented prior to 2008.  You have no evidence of that beyond nearly pure pie in the sky speculation that is nearly completely detached from reality like Santa Claus (I am trying to be seasonal here).

Probably overall, I am not even really disagreeing with your various factual representations or even the appreciation of various life futilities that exist with much of the population that might not be realized the futility of a lot of matters until working a whole life and still being poor after doing everything correctly...

But it still seems to me that you are ongoingly complaining about the unfairnesses in life and sure it may even be true that any of us can work our asses off and still we don't get anywhere and we cannot break through the glass ceiling and we might not even end up better off than our parents, even if we might have tried harder or even had more successes along the way.. in the end we still end up in a bad or maybe even worse position.

Another thing is trying to figure out what is being measured, because we already know that dollar wealth does not necessarily equate with happiness, and wealth can be measured in a variety of ways, yet even if we attempt to stick with financially measuring wealth, we still might be able to figure out ways in which people who are able to live within their means might end up being able to become more wealthy than people who live beyond their means and then keep getting into trouble because they are not very good at managing whatever financial resources are available to them - and I am not even against debt, because there are ways to use debt in order to leverage wealth, but there are also ways to use debt that gets someone into trouble because of the consumption of products and services that do not hold their value, and so the person may get into debt beyond their means or be held back from accumulating wealth because of consumption rather than investment decisions earlier in life or before they are sufficiently financially ready to consume at the level that they choose to consume.


Of course, winning the jackpot could result in a person being rich and wealthy if s/he knows (or learns) how to manage the money in order to figure out how to live on interest rather than depleting principle or otherwise figuring out ways to manage the money.

Let me give an example of a person (in mid-to-late 20s) who might ONLY have $50k in networth and who might have ONLY had an income of around $3k per month wins a jackpot that receives a net amount of $2 million may well either completely squander the money or such person could be set for life with a $6,666 per month income from the $2 million for the rest of his/her life, if they invest it somewhat wisely and they live off the interest and they ONLY dip into principle when they might feel that they are getting close to the end of their life (in the event that they might not want to pass it on after death). 

So for the above hypothetical person, winning of such jackpot may have allowed this person to completely stop working because his/her income has doubled, and therefore it comes down to just managing the new income and the new situation, there may be ways to create buffers to ensure an ability to continue to live with a $3k per month income and maybe ONLY slowly move up to the $6,666k per month income that the $2 million would allow.. and the transition would be learning how to live with the income and then also making sure to learn how to make sure that the principle is growing in value at least 4% per year in order to justify drawing up to $6,666k per month, but if managing finances is new to a person, then such person would have to learn to make sure that they are able to sustain their chosen withdrawal rate on their newly acquired wealth.   

Just because we can witness a lot of examples of irresponsible behavior should not necessarily cause us to conclude that everyone is irresponsible with their finances and not capable of learning, even if maybe most people might end up NOT being able to sufficiently manage their newly acquired $2 million extra to their networth because they choose to fail/refuse to learn how to manage that money to make it last, but instead choose to spend it without giving sufficient attention to making sure that it is able to last as long as they would like it to last..
 

I don't really disagree with your various categories of assessment, yet no matter what there are going to be complications involving existing systems and even the passing down of wealth, so matters can become overly complicated when trying to compare what someone would have had available in 2009 versus 2080, and it seems like a big so what to me because it is something that none of us can change in terms of when we were born... but even in 2080, there still might be no coiners or family of no coiners or there might be bitcoiners who had hoarded their bitcoin and passed down their bitcoin, or locked up their bitcoin from earlier years, and some folks may benefit or be disadvantaged by the actions of the earlier bitcoiner,.,.


There are a lot of ways to consider insider-information in terms of being able to advantage yourself and people around you or even trying to create systems in which fewer people will have insider information or advantages.  I think that bitcoin / Satoshi had been attempting to create the latter.. perhaps merely to attempt to cause bitcoin to seem to be more credible rather than his own pureness - Open source software has some of those same kinds of sharing of information ideas contained within that may well be attempts to share information in order that no one else has any superior advantage - but also perhaps even a kind of security approach - even though even with bitcoin, there are presumptions that individuals will act in their own self-interests - so there is an interesting balance that seems to be going on with the underlying incentives that were built into bitcoin and continue to be built upon in some ways.. but maybe not in all ways.. 


I think that it is a bad idea to bring up shitcoins in this thread - even though we are already deviating a lot from the topic by getting into discussion of financial matters.. and you are just likely to make matters worse when talking about so many ideas that might relate to shitcoins .. so maybe you should come up with better example that relates to bitcoin.. and even better if it relates to lightning network.


Fuck shitcoins.  No need to discuss them here.


Well, of course there are going to be various ways in which people might have been able to participate in bitcoin related matters and even might have been in a better position to understand the topic and/or able to allocate time towards learning about it or investing into it.

Bitcoin is a different thing when it is "prior to its birth" and then even once bitcoin is announced on October 31, 2008, not too many people knew about it or was able to understand it.. and even when it went live on January 3, 2009, it took a bit of time before others started to mine it and it took even about a year and a half longer in mid 2010 before there were starting to be examples of trades for value and even people willing to assign a price to it that others were willing to pay.

And, even hearing about bitcoin would depend on what circles you are in or what part of the world, so surely we can say that some people are advantaged versus others depending on where they were at in life... or even if they had been able to learn about bitcoin, did they take such opportunities or dismiss it.. when they might be too busy to take on a new project, such as learning about what is bitcoin.


You seem to be bringing quite a bit of baggage into this discussion. 


I wasn't proposing anything.  I was just mentioning various ways that people might perceive that bitcoin distribution might not be fair, and the criticisms might not be completely without merit in terms of some people being in a better position to have had heard about bitcoin or to have had invested earlier, yet it would seem that the prudent and reasonable thing for anyone to do after they start to learn about bitcoin is to figure out if they are able to learn more and/or if they might need to start to invest into bitcoin at whatever point that they start to hear about it... whether they are investing to learn (or otherwise spending time and energies on bitcoin) or they are financially investing.


I did not see anyone here suggesting any other way to distribute bitcoin, even though BlackHatCoiner described various ways that he thought that the rich were advantaged over the poor and even seeming to suggest that bitcoin would not necessarily change those kinds of unfairnesses.. and I was largely attempting to suggest that bitcoin seems to be a tool for the poor to be able to use.  So the ideas of fairness did come up several times, but not necessarily in terms of proposals to change the way that bitcoin "should have been" distributed.. like where you (cryptosize) seem to want to go with your seemingly strawman attack.


You're all over the place, cryptosize.  Bring us back to bitcoin.. or maybe even better yet, lightning network?


A lot of that seems far afield - like either you need to create your own thread, or find a thread on those kinds of topics.  Bitcoin/Lightning.. remember? 
 

You're getting closer to the topic.. but still?   


Ideas of inheritance and abilities to pass down wealth vary quite a lot throughout the world, and surely there are aspects of bitcoin that might allow for timelocking of wealth or even being able to pass (or transfer) wealth without requesting or getting permission.. some of these characteristics might also exist somewhat in lightning network too.


It seems that a lot of people aspire to get to financial and psychological circumstances in which they are able to choose their own work, so on an individual level we can see how people might try to create systems in which they can either choose their own work and even to lessen the amount that they have to work.  Even if someone in bitcoin might be able to acquire a lot of bitcoins, they still might need to figure out systems in which they can preserve their wealth and even to be able to spend their wealth without anyone taking their wealth from them, and I suppose that bitcoin and lightning network can be fit into those kinds of systems - yet there still might be questions regarding how much work that any of us ends up having to do to either learn or to establish systems or even to trust others to set up the systems or to manage some of these kinds of interactions with our bitcoins whether they are on chain or if they are being used in the lightning network.

Oh gawd..  

How do you know?

and why would it even matter?

And I question if it is even true.. look at your post history.. Mr. most optimisitc... are you trying to be funny?  

For example, here's a my rendition of a representative post from you.  "I am going to whine.. but I am going to whine optimistically."    hahahahahaha

Can your posts be used to measure whether you are actually optimistic, or do we need to figure out how you "really feel" through some other means?

Let's say that there were a way to measure optimism, and then we estimate that there are 3 million forum members, but only 50% are optimistic and only 15% are HODLers, but then you want to proclaim that you are amongst the most optimistic of the ones who are optimistic.. so by your measures, you end up in the top 100k of members within your described category.. or whatever?  Makes little sense to me, difficult to quantify exactly, and hardly even relevant within that way of framing it, no?

Maybe I am just quibbling about your wording.. and if you had just said.. I consider myself to be amongst the most optimistic of HODLers rather than making a factual statement then I would not have been as likely to quibble because you would have just been making a statement regarding how you view yourself rather than an actual factual statement... Sure I could have still quibbled.. but there would have been less room for such quibbling...  #justsaying

Your above-linked twitter meme seems to be a reasonable (or might we say optimistic?) way to consider BTC price dynamic matters.

It's ONLY down from here..


 


You are stating the obvious.....





but, hey.. that's what disingenuine troll twats do...



AmInotrite?


Yes I remember seeing an earlier post (perhaps in this thread?) on that same topic, so I decided to try to look into it a bit more in order to attempt to clarify where it is and what it does.. even though the signage looks ok.

I found this Twitter thread, but I could not find any article about it.

I was a bit confused about the location - because the Dominican Republic has a lot of towns and cities and rural areas, so merely saying that such shop is in the Dominican Republic does not really say too much.

One of the posters in the thread, said that the shop was located in las Terrenas Samaná República Dominicana.. so then that gave me the google link to show that it is in a beach town.. but still a kind of rural area.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Las+Terrenas+32000,+Dominican+Republic/@19.3298869,-69.6917721,12z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x8eaefa71d7b6d3af:0x3c5b9a9aecc5b9fd!8m2!3d19.299298!4d-69.5559162


 I still am a bit confused about what it is that they do at the shop.. if they buy and sell bitcoin and crypto?  or if they provide information.. or something else.. More information would be good... and is it the ONLY shop of its kind in the Dominican Republic, or are there some similar locations with similar themes?  Inquiring minds want to know.