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4861  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: March 11, 2023, 05:41:22 PM
Its not transactions its fees .

look below

Latest Block:   780336  (15 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   122.4480%  (145 / 118.42 expected, 26.58 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   43053844193928.45                           
Current Difficulty:   43551722213590.37                           
Next Difficulty:   between 44707200160869 and 53527864052814
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.6531% and +22.9064%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 4:43 PM  (+1.1564%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   March 22, 2023 at 4:07 AM  (in 10d 14h 39m 57s)
Next Retarget (latest):   March 24, 2023 at 9:11 AM  (in 12d 19h 43m 17s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 11d 10h 24m 7s and 13d 15h 27m 28s
Copy stats to clipboard


Mathamatically

this huge jump in hash could mean
a) un real good luck variance of +22.5%
b) more gear turned on and set up
c) testing of excess gear for future hashrate manipulation
d) an unknown


to think the network could be neg 28% in a 100 block span last jump
and then be plus 22% this jump. is nex to mathematically impossible.

to say b yeah maybe
to say d yeah maybe

to say c is possible based on last two beginnings of difficulty is not impossble.

To think a large company such as bitmain has

excess L7 miners
excess S19 miners

is likely.

to think they don’t see what I am writing and have drawn the same conclusions I have is some what possible.


remember they build s19s and L7s for under 1000 dollars.

they can easily be thinking long term 2056 as  I listed and do some wild manipulating down the road.

we all remember the spring 2021 rally getting chopped off at the knees by the shut down of 50% of the hashrate.

So I am like encouraging mining everywhere and if NFTs make better fees for btc good.

To all BTC maxers that is not going to be what happens.

Diversity in mining will not go by by.
4862  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin as a store value in comparison to traditional assets on: March 11, 2023, 05:25:54 PM
in my opinion there is no need to compare between traditional assets and bitcoin.
because bitcoin is a digital currency, while fiat money and gold are traditional assets that cannot be abandoned.
because I personally also like to invest in gold and it has proven to be safe even though the price increase is not too high.
but I also continue to collect bitcoins every time there is a decrease in price and I will also save it as a future asset.
so the two assets should not be compared because both have benefits.

Oh much like a hand and a glove.

Seriously there is no reason not to have some:

gold
silver
btc
ltc
doge
hard cash

Just don’t bet the bank on only one of them.
4863  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: March 11, 2023, 03:42:33 PM
We don't know at what stage fees will be critical, a sure thing, not 100 years, in just 13 years the block rewards will be BELOW 1 BTC a block, in 21 years the rewards will be LESS than a quarter of BTC, if BTC isn't in the sub million zone, things are going to look pretty mad without large fees feeding the miners.
Sub-million?

BTC will be worth the equivalent of millions of dollars in 20+ years from now.

Feel free to bookmark/screenshot my post for future reference.

 and when it is worth 3.2 million in 2056 the marketcap will be 40 trillion

and the network of hashing need not expand as I illustrated above.

in 2056 if fees do not grow and efficiency doubles we can have 640 eh hashrate mining .

the value of the vault and guards protecting the 40 trillion cap will be the same 6-13 billion that protects the network now.

That is an issue that Nfts and ordinals may solve if allowed to try.
4864  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 11, 2023, 03:14:06 PM
Huh?
I am not into altcoins. But, WTF is happening in the market today?
Three stablecoins de-pegged. Stablecoins are not stable anymore.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/usd-coin/ USDC Was traded for $0.877
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/ DAI Was Traded for $0.911
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/fei-usd/ FEI Was traded for $0.89.

FEI was de-pegged in 2021. But, This is the first time for USDC and DAI.

Hey, You. Yes, You. Haha, You were afraid of Bitcoin, and you were holding USDC?  Roll Eyes


Silicon Valley Bank 16 th largest in USA was forced to close by the feds.

200 billion in assets.

One of the largest US banks to ever fail.

Joe Biden and the Fed will continue the all out attack on “inflation”

and anyone betting that rates will drop in the next three adjustments will be crushed

March 22
May.     3
June. 14.  are next three jumps

should be 0.50 each time

and late april early may new i-bond 8.3%

the good thing is eventually they will pivot. so buy dip and hodl. pivot will be nice.
4865  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: Bitcoin & Apple Pay on: March 11, 2023, 03:05:01 PM
Why would you want to pay bitcoin with Apple Pay? You shouldn't store bitcoin to third party platforms, and Apple Pay is definitely one.

I believe the best you can do is to try to buy gift cards  to use in apple pay or Google pay.
I don't think this is what OP wants, otherwise he could just sell bitcoin for fiat.

And yes, it’s fantastic here in the States, and you can do it anonymously too. Wink
Anonymously and United States are antonyms. Do you mean that you can just sell through a decentralized exchange?

I disagree you should store 5% or less of you btc on third party players.

Paypal
coinbase
apple pay
amazon

would all be good to put a small percentage in the hands of a third party.

as of today paypal and coinbase do allow it.

apple pay
amazon dont.

to be clear this would be small amount .

1000 usd worth or less.

the vast majority needs to be in a secure wallet

an example of a five btc amount

0.05 in a third party account
0.95 in a trezor or any good hardware wallet
4.00 in two seperate off line wallets.
4866  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: March 11, 2023, 02:33:02 PM
So LTC+Doge still would loom as a threat in the case of a pure stable flat 100k BTC in 2056
What about Monero?

Strange that you never mention it... it's #4 in PoW coins.

I mentioned still owning gpus and being able to mine with them vs scrypt vs btc asics

and that dollar per watt works for the miner.

there is grin asic
there is kda asic

I have close to 265kwatts

I have L7 and L3
I have s19 pro and lessor sha miners
I have gpus
I have kda asic
I have grin asic

My goal would be to be able to mine
all 265 kwatts in sha 256 btc using a mix of whatsminer m50s and s19s
65 kwatts in L7
35 kwatt in gpus
 5 kwatts in lessor asics
4867  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: March 11, 2023, 09:56:42 AM
Or my bank pays the most interest and has the best rates.

but they keep the cash in the janitorial closet in order to save on a vault and a guard.

So by saving that way the fees are low and the perks are high.

To deny the issue that low fees will chase the miners to better coins with better fees and to think that helps bitcoin in the long run is nuts.

To cherry pick the 100 year number and to ignore

that by 2056 blocks will be

3.125        2028
1.562500   2032
0.7812500   2036
0.3906250  2040
0.1953125  2044. in 20 years coins need to be 400k
0.0976562. 2048. in. 24  years coins need to be 800k
0.0488281 2052 in   28 years coins need to be 1.6 mil
0.0244140 2056 in 32 years coins need to be 3.2 mil

for miners to barely get by with todays difficulty.

and btw a 1 sat fee for a 3.2 million coin is high in terms of fiat

thats a short 32 year span well 33 year as i counted from 2024 next having not 2023.

I figure like getting mileage from a gallon of gas you reach a max amount

Like getting hash cost down to 21 watts a th from 2 million watts a th back in 2012

so the problem with a 3.2 million dollar coin in 2056 is the market cap will be 40 trillion dollars

lets say for the sake of argument we drop power cost 50% over next 33 years.

you will have 200th s23s that burn 3000 watts and while price went up 160x

hashrate and difficulty are 2x. since the fees did not expand and the reward shrank.

net work now is 3.3 million 100 th s19s

at 2000 a machine that is 6.6 billion

my sustainability example above means 3.3 million 200th s23s at 2000 even 4000 a machine means

6.6 to 13.2 billion in gear to protect a 40 trillion marketcap.

and now we have 6.6 billion to protect a 320 billion which was a 1 trillion marketcap

only 33 years for that to be true.


meanwhile scrypt with a blend aproach still has the same 10000 a block doge and of course shrunken ltc

thats only 33 years.

So my issue is BTC is fucked without addressing this in only 33 years.

So No NFT + Ordinals to make up for this issue in the next 33 years. Okay
And no larger blocks to generate more fees. Okay
and LN that reduces fees and makes btc a partial POW. Okay
No recovery of stale unclaimed coins to keep rewards higher. okay
No stretching block time to six years a ½ ing then 8 years a ½ ing . okay

You end up with real issues in 2056.

Now lets argue we go the pure route. What good could happen?

BTC price stops growing and market cap never goes much over 2 trillion.

BTC becomes flat near 100k hashrate stablized to support that. More like gold or silver in stability.

I could see that as the adjustment if and here it comes scrypt did not exist but it does

So LTC+Doge still would loom as a threat in the case of a pure stable flat 100k BTC in 2056

It always comes down to being a bit younger to live long enough to see this in 2056 at 99 years old by than I won’t care much about which algo wins out.

Or if the two largest algos end up being a dual reality.

So I mine both and sit the gpus. Time will tell what is best.
4868  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: March 11, 2023, 04:24:33 AM
My power price is ½ the coins mined.

So if the machine does not break it eventually pays off.

Then at that point I simply get half the coins.

So the L7s and L3s are all paid off.

They are still bread and butter gear . They just rake in profit.

The gpus are shut off. But they are paid off.

The s19s and s17s make money but less.

In 5 months the LTC does a ½ ing the scrypt will make a lot less for six months and I will add some L7 at a low price.

Its a grind ,but I am a gear head first always was since the 1960s.
4869  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 11, 2023, 02:19:18 AM
Bitcoin CEO is the best… he launched a new bitcoin ad
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/11n7b1a/new_bitcoin_ad_just_dropped/
That is Coinbase and not Binance. Still the ad is pretty good considering it typically points out the issue faced by everyone who has a bank account.

BTW have we touched the bottom yet or it is just the beginning?

Just the beginning.

I'm still struggling with my dads ilnesses. Too bad that Bitcoin is crashing and I have no comfort in it. I'm spending like crazy these months for everything that I want. It is just a mood I've never been before. I know that the price is good for buying, but I'm deep under water regarding monthly fiat income. I will keep my main stash intact, only spending what I need to buy something. And "need" is a strong word. For example why on earth I decided to buy Meta Quest 2 VR only to play Star Wars Squadrons, provided I had the game for 2 years and barely played it? And why I bought apple airpods 1 (real) and 2 (fake) only to decide to buy pro 2 (real). I don't even have iphone or ipad to use them properly. I'm a fan of Samsung - with Galaxy tab s7+ and s23 ultra recently bought, I'm quite satisfied.

tl;sr. May be later this year the DCA mood will return again, but not now. Roll Eyes

Of course, each of us make choices, and sometimes we have a lot of expenses.. and we still consider whether and how much to invest into something that may or may not end up paying off (such as bitcornz)... in a deferred gratification kind of way.

I cannot know your situation enough to know whether $10 per week might be too much to dedicate towards dee cornz.. those surely are personal choices, and another thing if you engaged in a kind of aggressive buying of BTC of maybe $1k per month (or $250 per week) that might have lasted from around the time of your forum registration date, even until late 2021, you could have made quite a few mistakes but still have some cornz left out of the 18.5BTC (which may have had a total investment of around $65k) that would have been possible to accumulate under those kinds of conditions and that any BTC that you still hold could still have averages in price of quite a bit less than the current BTC price.

... But yeah of course, mistakes could have been made.. and yes.. a better case scenario would have been to have had been able to have had been able to have held onto those BTC... whether you did or not may be another story.. .. and surely personal stories vary.

....as philipma1957 said on other occasions, seems bonds continue to damage Bitcoin price... if my retard brain understands it correctly

yeah.. you are retarded.

#justsaying.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


First off fuck you jjg


at nohomo

Here is a suggestion april/may will be the new i-bond

2021nov 7.1
2022apr/may 9.8
2022nov 6.89
2023apr/may whisper of 8.3 or 8.4%

so this is easy peasy wait till apr/may see new i-bond and see if it is 8.3 or 8.4%

then see how it affects btc

I did two dip buys
 21.7
 20.3
and i stopped and did not go for 19.9
i did my dca

4x+4x+2x is 10x fiat units of btc

i have the weds dca working my plan is to buy dips and dca till nov 2023 and hodl it. it will be close to 100x fiat units of btc.

but if you think I wont buy some i-bonds in april may you are wrong. I will.

4870  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Biden proposed 30% mining tax. what would impact on Bitcoin mining? on: March 11, 2023, 02:01:32 AM
President Joe Biden's administration has imposed a 30% tax on bitcoin mining electricity use. Bitcoin mining was not very profitable even though this tax was not levied in the past. But what impact will the new electricity cost have on Bitcoin mining?

Will this additional electricity tax attract new miners to Bitcoin mining?

What will be the impact on hashpower for a 30% mining tax?

Even before the imposition of this tax, some mining companies were in losses.
What are the old mining companies thinking about this tax?


Well Trump taxed  China imports at 30% I have paid thousand in import duties . It slowed my mines growth.

I would need to read the tax bill proposed to under stand if it will hurt my mine as much or more than the import tax.
4871  Economy / Speculation / Re: Anyone else agree that mtgox payout is keeping bitcoin down? on: March 11, 2023, 01:58:21 AM
And once again mtgox changed the date as expected lol.
"Mt Gox registration deadline pushed from March 10th to April 6, distribution deadline pushed to October 31st". However, the price still fell under 20k even after no big bad news. Feels like the market reacts more to the commentary of the fed rather than its real actions.
Side note: Added more to my btc holding position right under 20k. No stress at all Wink

the feds are a real bitch.

Poke around and search I-bonds

Nov 2021 7.1%
April 2022 9.8%
Nov. 2022 6.9%
April 2023 maybe 8.3%

every year as much as 3.3 trillion of these can be purchased.

so 2021 i bonds jumped in nov  and btc tanked
and 2022 i bonds jumped in apr and btc tanked
2022 i bonds dropped in nov and brc stablized
2023 i bond rumors abound some say 8.3% which will tank btc in may.

4872  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: March 11, 2023, 01:50:48 AM
Every 210,000 blocks. If you propose to just create 50BTC or 6.25BTC per block until 21M cap is reached, there are some reasons against that, e.g. that the limit will be reached quicker and we will still have the issue with what to do when there is no reward at all, just over 100 years earlier than with satoshi's model.
no i proposed to create a fixed block reward forever. be that 50 or 6.25btc that's something that could be decided on. then miners wouldn't need to have new sources of income like the ordinals trash. i'm sure a fixed block reward has been discussed ad-nauseum in the past though but in light of this new nft thing, maybe it need to be revisited.

Quote from: philipma1957
A nice practical thought for blockchain use  over  purity  blockchain use thought..

Miners are practical and already have more than enough gear to do  weird shit to algos. In general they simply are looking to turn profit.
you keep bringing up how miners are basically in it for the money. how all you care about is $ per watt. i really don't know what to say about that. all i care about is paying a low transaction fee...

Quote
Which is why there are multiple algos to mine. Not just one.
then go mine them. why mention it since by mentioning it, you're just potentially adding to your competition. maybe they didn't know.  Shocked



The internet is hard to fully communicate on.

At times it could be late at night and I can’t sleep and I may rush to write the idea down.

Frankly I am so in favor of The long term scrypt alog of ltc + Doge over the btc 4 year 1/2 ings I can’t describe it by typing.

If you look at it on a practical level how does it lose out in the 100 year time span.
Doge never stops the 10000 coin blocks.
There is always enough value for miners.

At the moment by watts the L7 makes 20 dollars for 3000 watts
the s19 pro makes 6.60 dollars for 3000 watts.

So the L7 crushes the s19 pro.

My power price will never lose money. But I am power capped.

I have to be nuts to just mine Btc at 6.60 for  3kwatts
when I can do LTC/Doge for 20. at 3kwatts.

20:is more than 6.60

and even if I only believe in BTC I should convert the 20 in LTC +Doge into BTC.

I magically use 3000 watts to make 20 worth of BTC.

LN hurts BTC a bit by taking fees off chain.

So if NFTs and ordinals help the chain add fees in the long run it will drive price of gear and coins upwards.

What has happened now is I shortcut to cut BTC.

I have 45gh in scrypt makes 135 a day and uses 18kwatts

to make 135 worth of btc a day a need 2.2ph or 22 s19  pro J units burning 66kwatts

so at the moment NFTs and Ordinals look like a way for me to boost  my Btc earnings by keeping and adding to my s19s vs adding to my L7 gear.

I can get 4 s19s for same price as 1 L7 either way they earn 24 a day

one burns 12kwatts one burns 3kwatts.

and I can effortlessly convert the L7 earnings to btc

that helps the scrypt get more secure not the sha 256 network.

the build up goes on the ‘wrong’ network but makes me more btc.

frankly if you say fuck you to NFT and Ordinal and my idea of streching ½ to 6 years after the 2024 along with my idea of recovering stale coins never moved after 60 years 2069

You are saying yes to scrypt mining since they have better scaling and an endles supply of doge while blending in LTC ½ ing.

Hell it night and day that it is superior and BTC needs a tweak.

and BTC ourists are tripping since LN is not btc purity.

LN and purity is like a guy that pays a hooker to blow him once a week so he can say he is a virgin when he gets married.

Please let the Nfts in along with the ordinals.

Simply use encryption and no one can say you are printing porn or state secrets.

I sure my post here has enough letters and characters to me mixed into all kinds of things.
4873  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: March 11, 2023, 12:21:19 AM
 over all the years I mined top end gear at six cents has been the bottom out number.

So we are not there yet.

4.9 cents a th does the trick.

It makes s17pro and m20s losers

or all s17 pro must clock to 40th
4874  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 11, 2023, 12:10:54 AM
Fin "guy" predicts 100bp interest rate CUT within 6-9 mo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdSiIYBiGjI

Stocks bottom is usually within 6 mo of the cut start, so, say, cuts start in 3-6mo, then bull market starts (in full) in 9-12 mo.
Makes sense, just before the halving.

That...or we are in 1930 (or maybe spring 2007)...I prefer the first scenario (100 bp cut).

Looking to make a sizable purchase of btc and stocks, but not yet.

we need to get to 6% we are are 4.57%

so .50 march 22
+.50 may 3
+.50 Jun 14
= 1.5 and 6.07% by Jun/jul.

We should be good for a zero or a cut after that. thats the jul 30 for a zero or a neg .25

after that who knows
4875  Other / Meta / Re: Whoops out of smerit. Should there be a way to buy some from theymos? on: March 10, 2023, 11:27:24 PM
Just went to merit a bunch of posts and ran out before I finished. Eliminating the become a merit source option, how about something like a copper membership so you can post images, a way to buy some merits from the source.

Would have to be handled on a case by case basis, since you don't want to be selling merit to someone who might abuse it. But, a couple of bucks for 50 or so merit might not be the worst deal.

Or I just start making notes and when I get some I send some. Never thought about it until now.

EDIT: This is not a beg for merit since something like that would only work once (now) but a more in general thing. I get some now but run out again in 7 months and wind up in the same situation. But throw a couple of dollars into the bitcointalk treasury and get some would be a workable thing.

-Dave

Tacked on 12 more I wanted to see if a post can read over 50 merits as 50 is the monthly limit.

First post now reads 60 merits as I gave 48 in dec and 12 now total of 60 merits.
4876  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Octotank12 with 2 whatsminer 30s+ review. Not ready for full review. on: March 10, 2023, 10:43:57 PM
the two m30s+ set to 3000 watts are pretty much flawless.

And a 1 month delay for the octominer cooler is the new schedule.

So Feb-28 to March 31 window 🪟 is now March 31- Apr 30 window.

May come it time to use for heating buysolars home pool.
4877  Economy / Speculation / Re: Anyone else agree that mtgox payout is keeping bitcoin down? on: March 10, 2023, 10:35:05 PM
Logically they may want to delay distributing it for 300-400 days.

after the ½ ing 130k coins dumped will have 2x the impact they do now.

say it is 22000 coins a month for six months in a row.

when we are down to 3.125 coin blocks its 13500 coins a month.

so a 22000 coin dump monthly for six months against 13500 coins should be effective.

those coins all were under 1300 in value.

some lower than 300

so selling a 300 dollar coin for 18000 is a big gain.
4878  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: March 10, 2023, 08:55:21 PM
Are there any serious threats on Bitcoin with Ordinals/NFTs? anything vital? or it's just "No, I don't like them, kick them out of here"!
You bring up some good points, mikey. I'm honestly mostly worried about storing people's potential illegal files and serving them like a webserver to the public. The moral and legal aspects of it, both.

Quote from: pooya87
If that's what you want then there is a much simpler way without filling bitcoin with garbage and making it unusable which is to use a side-chain. There is already a couple of projects out there like RootStock that actually create real smart contracts and transfer actual tokens around instead of the fake thing in Ordinals that has no value.
don't you see that's the problem though? you can show them alternatives but they don't care. they just want larger transaction fees in their back pocket. anything that does that for them is welcomed with open arms. apparently. that shouldn't really be suprising to us though. that's how the world works. people with money are the ones that doors get opened for and welcomed in...people without the money they get the cold shoulder.
I mean, we do need miners to secure Bitcoin and make it the highly safe, secure payment method that it is now.
It's just that there needs to be a balance. If there is no money to be made from mining & they leave Bitcoin, the security of the network may suffer (someone could scoop up the old mining hardware and attack Bitcoin).
However if we allow people to use Bitcoin as a playground for 'everything freedom' for the sake of the highest possible fees, we will experience what Ethereum experienced a few years ago when developers jumped on the 'world computer' bandwagon and coded games e.g. chess, where every single move was an individual transaction (!!), collectable cat games (birth of NFTs?) and similar.

If anyone reading is rather new to Bitcoin and doesn't know what I'm talking about:
The game's popularity in December 2017 congested the Ethereum network, causing it to reach an all-time high in the number of transactions and slowing it down significantly

I remember vividly how frightened people were in that time that it got so unusable that it may die and lose any and all of its utility.
There is no use to have a payment network that is super secure by being overwhelmed in transaction count and crazy high fees, but at the same time gets unusable because of congestion.

Quote
which is to use a side-chain.
The NFT folks can tell you the same thing, you can use a side-chain for payments as well, LN works great.
Indeed, I am highly in favor of reducing someone's number of on-chain payments, especially low-value ones, and create a handful of Lightning channels once, instead. All for the sake of keeping the load on the blockchain low, IBD time fast, decentralization high and mempool congestion & on-chain fees manageable.

Are you being serious right now? The Bitcoin developers are not some kind of 'evil corporation' who we need to 'teach lessons' by threatening to destroy 'their product'; you don't seem to grasp this is an open-source project, where we as the users already have the power, especially through the decentralized nature of nodes as seen in UASF.
We are all Bitcoin, there is no 'us against them'. We should aim to get the best outcome for it together and not by fighting each other or threatening Bitcoin's destruction.
most of what you are saying there is your opinion. but lets talk facts. none of the developers anticipated ordinals. enough said.
Actually, what I stated were public facts and logic, not personal opinions. If you can point out a flaw in my logic, please go ahead. Developers not anticipating Ordinals does not really answer my post at all.

Quote
I already said to use multiple backups. Do note that if you use the blockchain as your single backup, it will be a single point of failure, as well.
not in the same way that pcloud is a single point of failure though. for the bitcoin blockchain to go away, it would almost require the internet to go away. if that happened, what good would your data be anyway?  Shocked
This is an opinion, on the other hand. There is no hard proof that the existence of some cloud provider's company in 50 years is more guaranteed than Bitcoin nodes still running. I personally believe Bitcoin will stick around much longer, too, but I cannot prove it.
What we can agree on is that both are n=1, so redundancy is key. Anything more is subjective opinions.

i still have yet to hear a reasonable explanation for why the block reward needs to be halved every 4 years or however often it is...
Every 210,000 blocks. If you propose to just create 50BTC or 6.25BTC per block until 21M cap is reached, there are some reasons against that, e.g. that the limit will be reached quicker and we will still have the issue with what to do when there is no reward at all, just over 100 years earlier than with satoshi's model.

Most people do not understand the issue of fees being too small that miners will say fuck it and switch to other algos.





Quote
Shouldn't difficulty adjustments take care of that, though? I.e. big miners go offline, difficulty goes down, home mining gets profitable again, and mining continues on.






big snip. i am quoting nonce.

The problem of big miners leaving btc and still have a secure network is at stake.


The first 100 or so blocks of this 1% jump the btc diff was down 28%.

we made about 70 and should have made about 98 blocks.

I see this as almost mathematically impossible odds with the amount of gear in the network.

So
a) someone really big had a power refit
b) someone really big is testing out how easy it is to do a low hash attack on the network.
c) unreal impossible variance.
d) an unknown.

a and b and d are most likely but b is terrible and possible.

So down the road if forced scarcity of coins due to rapid ½ ings continues a real attack on the net work is easy to do.

as I mentioned before having three algos worth of gear and being able to switch around is not too hard.

And it will devalue btc.

So btc needs to figure how to attract mining.

Another thing that fits this is that of how good can a piece of gear be.

Ie pc then gpu then fpga then asic

asics s1, s2 , s3 , s4, s5,s7,s9,s11, s15,s17, s19

we are pretty much done with effectively making gear save power.

So mothballing s19, L7, gpu is kind of easy to do.

Over the next year having 1 mw of three different algos should be cheap

and a neg hashrate attack cheaper if the coin/block reward sucks.

btc would need to alter diff adjustments if a negative hash rate attack happens.

Time will tell how this unfolds Most likely after 2040 it will become more of an issue as scrypt will look better to miners then btc.
4879  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: March 10, 2023, 08:18:10 PM
Or, the not so funny one, an S19 is making you 8$ a day, as in 30 minutes of flipping hamburgers on minimum wage at McD.

An S19 makes you 1$ at 6 cents/Kwh, remember when it first hit the market and people were buying it for half a bitcoin? Cheesy


Quote
Probably, it seems like it's slightly deflating even now, but still, a lot of mining companies are going to have some long meetings full of silence today!

Well profit is down 24% it makes perfect sense for diff to start slowing down at least, current numbers are

Quote
Latest Block:   780164  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   101.2055%  (1989 / 1965.31 expected, 23.69 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   39156400059293.19                           
Current Difficulty:   43053844193928.45                           
Next Difficulty:   between 43586727751245 and 43586824534449
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.2377% and +1.2379%
Previous Retarget:   February 25, 2023 at 3:27 AM  (+9.9535%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 11:27 PM  (in 0d 4h 26m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 11:27 PM  (in 0d 4h 26m 49s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 19h 59m 52s and 13d 19h 59m 54s

Not much time left to make any considerable changes in the retarget, so 1.15% or anything pretty close to that.

+1% is a meh.  -20% in price is an ugh.

Next jump will be of interest.

I wonder if we full on drop.

I think not much unless we get a full two weeks at 15-17k levels.

if a 30 watt s19 j pro makes $1.50 at six cent power it has not quite bottomed out on the mining end.
4880  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: March 10, 2023, 10:20:48 AM
yeah viabtc is at 5.96 cents a th

a s19j pro  earns 5.96

burns 75 kwatts

10 cents = $7.50 loser
09 cents = $6.75 loser
08 cents = $6.00 loser
07 cents = $5.25 $0.71 profit
06 cents = $4.50 $1.46 profit         this is the key we almost never get to zero profit at this number
05 cents = $3.75 $2.21 profit

What really interests me is LTC+DOGE L7 miner has been a godlike earner for 2+ years it is tanking bigly for daily profit

If you had 10 L7 miners purchased Jan 2021 they carried you for 2 years



So a guy with 10 L7 miners and 50 s17's  is now in trouble.

and

 2023 FOMC Meetings
March. 21-22*        >>>>>>>> maybe we go up  0.50 to 5.07%
May. 2-3.
June. 13-14*
July. 25-26.
September. 19-20*
Oct/Nov. 31-1.
December. 12-13*

Some say we hit 6% before we see cuts
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