Risk of holding established coins is smaller. You are still risking 100% of your investment too but with much less probability. But there is still vatious of risks. Lisk for example is contiously postoninig every think they promise. Team must be inexperienced though. You also throw here ETC, ETH, LSK - they all provide platworm for smartcontracts daps ets. In my opinion after years from now only 1 of them will survive. There is no need of 3x google or 3x youtube. And there is very high risk that the one who will surviewe after years wont be one of those tree because there is EOS STELLAR and dozens more. And few more new are beeing created every month.

ETH - as you see every succesed token (EOS BNB VEN) in leaving eth to jump on theirs own blockchain. ETH is not that scalable to hold even 1 huge project that reach mass adoption. And there are houndres of tokens on it.

Market looks different now. And will look different in next years. Hodling was the best strategy for 2012-2018 period. But there is no guarantee that it will be for 2018-2024 period. Perhaps it will be the best strategy for 2018-2020 and the worst for 2020-2024 for 99% of coins and still good for 1% of coins. We dont know it. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

You can find tutorials on youtube how to code it by yourown (and even link to page with code to copy and modify). Its the safest way but harder. I would never trust an arbitrage bot developer. No metter how good reviews he has.

This chart dasnt show how many buyers and sellers in on market. It shows how many offers are close to current price (with set spread). If price just came down this chart have to look like this. Why?

buy amounts
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

sell amounts
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

For this simple example this chars will looks the same at both sites with set spread of 4$ (lets say that price chance 1$ each offer) showing total of 4 coins on buy and sell. When now someone will buy 2 coin and push price 2 $ up offers will look like that

buy amounts
1
1
1
1
1

sell amounts
1 sold
1 sold price here
1  
1
1
1

now lets check how many coins are on buy and sell with set spread of 4$. 3 on buy nad still 4 on sell. And chart looks like on your picture. If you dont get it i can try to explain otherwise (when i read, what i wrote it looks hard to get it ;p )
But the most important think is that you cant trust it. Fake walls etc etc. Everythink was written beafore.

I've seen many times on this forum statements like:
"trading is risky, holding is safer"
"when you are hodling you are not making that many mistakes"
"in trading there are much more possibilities to lose money"
"if you would buy ether for 1$ look where you could be now"
"Hodler is not affected by whales making pump and dump"

Let's discuss then how does investing time goes with risk taken (lets discuss only about risk).

Hodler strategy risk:

Hodler is buying coins by fundamental (whitepaper, team, code, hype, being unique in specific segment) analysis for very long period. Hodling is a strategy very often suggested for newbies in cryptos (when you are newbie than buy good coins and sell on profit after years - I heard it thousands time). What can go wrong?

1- whitepaper is just a document with words. It can be copied and change a little. Faked. I can create my own whitepaper in which ill write that tomorrow ill be on mt everest.
2-team can be faked with fake twitter account with bought followers
3- code - who of us can check if code is OK? How many of currencies have working code now? Most of them are just concept without working product jet.
4- hype can be bought.
5- being unique didn't give you certainty of being unique forever. 1 month after your investment there can be new ICO with better team, bought hype and with working product delivered faster.
6- you are newbie and you did fundamental analyst wrong or didn't do at all just jump after hype or because someone said that its great investment
7- there are 1600 coins. More than 1400 won't survive next few years because they are not necessary. Your decision must be precised and full of luck

What if any of above will happened? Your investment will continuously goes to 0. And if you are hodler you will never sell until there will be nothing to sell. When you are buying with hodler strategy you are risking 100% of your investment. I don't think there is more risky way.

Trader

Good trader have loved coins that he checked fundamental and trade on them. He is trying to buy low and sell high. When trade is not going how he planned it he sells. He don't w8 for coin to hit bottom to panic sell, he tries to sell on the rise. His risk is set by him by stoploss which is set in his trading strategy. And it depends on time period he is investing in and expected profits. He don't fallow pump and dump.

Time period:

When trader see good buy opportunity on 1d candles he has to set stoploss lower, he takes bigger risk then but possible profit is bigger.
When he sees opportunity on 5 min candles he can set stoploss even 0,5% under buy point risking only 0,5% of his investment.

Trader is taking known risk each time he enters trade and this risk i related to expected profits. When trades are not going well he can stop trading, lock money into bitcoin or usd and change strategy. Hodler takes unknows risk - up to 100% - for unknown profit. With hope that his analysis was good and data wasn't faked. He also don't have chance to learn to invest because after first buy decision there is only hodl

Traders trade with usd pairs (usd gain) or btc pairs (btc gain) i dont think that there are manny traders that will trade for example omg pair (form omg gains) even if it will be possible. Mayby there are 2 traders on the world that miss that and cant w8 for it to be possible .

I love panic my friend That gives the best oportunity to earn. Bigger the panic is bigger the rebounce is. Thats why i sell when everyone is dreaming about lambos and buy when everyone is screeming "please grab my coins for free, they are useless"

I dont think that it would incrise other altcoin valaue. As i understand you right You think that when for example iota will be pared with eos it will incere iota and eos price? I dont think that it would change that much.


you are right that all alts fallow bitcoin and it has biggest volume, but i dont see a problem to overtake bitcoin in marketcap without overtaking it in volume. Currently when 90% volumen is traded in pair ALT/BTC all alts fallow bitcoin price because its price is based on 2 factors. BTC price and multiplier. Multiplier depends on performance of altcoin (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4444348.msg39704417#msg39704417 here i explained it further). If performacne of altcoin will be good enought i dont see a reason why multiplier would not be hight enought to make marketcap higher than bitcoin.

Investors cames to this market with USD, then they buy BTC and invest it to alts. Making extra alt/alt pair wont change that. Making extra alt/usd pair could possibly help, but i dont think that it will be a reson for huge gains.

Exacly. Fake walls completly destroy this. There are also hidden offers (throw buy offer with price 100 when price will go down to 95 set on trading bot or even exchange), stoploses ets. This execly shows nothing. Its better to take a look at order book but with knowledge that part of walls can be fake (set only to manipulate traders). And also big real walls dont say anything becouse big whales sometimes w8 for big wall to apper to even go with price few % to it to sell/buy huge amounts without pushing price further. Its hard to exit 1000btc trade from alt without destroing chart. When you are a whale and you see that big wall few % lower you will run for it with whole chart.

Thats why dont put too much attention.

If you are daytrading - try to learn using orderbooks and candle charts intead of this chart (faster and better)
if you are trading/investing - there is no possible aspect in which it is usefull.

Big spreads are very often on low volume assets.

I heard a lot of "lovesongs" about barbados and thair attitude to crypto. Read about it. They are so open to crypto...

I have few thoughts that i would like to talk with you guys.

Today total market cap is 300 bil $ and is very often compared to American stock market worth 30 trylion with various conclusions. But is 300 bil a correct number to compare with those 30 tril? All stock was bought and is being traded through USD. How is it with cryptocurrencies? Let's find out.

Bitcoin was first currency and was bought by dollars and is pumping by dollars till now. We can for sure say that 115bil from bitcoin can be put in total to those 300 bil total marketcap. But what about other currencies?

Almost every ICO supports bitcoin and ether (and majority of new coins was bought by those) sometimes litecoin, monero and others. But even ether litecoin monero was bought mostly by BTC during their ICO. That gives us strange circle of pumping. They are also traded and pumped to current price mostly by bitcoin (alt/btc pair).

Why is that important?

1- When you sell for example google shares for 10 mil$ you decrease marketcap evaluated in $ pulling out $ from market - when you are selling EOS to BTC you are decreasing marketcap evaluated in $ without pulling out $. When you then sell bitcoin to $ to pull them out of market you decrease marketcap again !
2- imagine that scenario. All bitcoin coins have marketcap of 10 bil $. Than there is ETH ico and all coins was bought for 5 bil $ in bitcoin currency. Than we have EOS ico and all coins was bought for 3 bil $ in ETH. We have marketcap equal to 18 bil but only 10 bil came from $ and 8 bil came from strange circle of pumping (total markecap pumping). In real its not that black and white but i just wrote that overpainted picture to better explain my thoughts. Now lets w8 for few years to pump each other to current price.

Real total marketcap evaluated in $ must be somewhere close to bitcoin marketcap. (some of the coins was bought by $ and is being traded by $ in some volume percentage). Maybe around 150-200 bil $. By real i mean markecap made by putting $ into market.

What you guys think about it?

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Very good question.

1-Bitcoin price goes up.
2-calculated altcoin price $ goes up(btc price * alt/btc price)
3-arbitrage bots sells altcoins for btc and buy them on usd market making pumping there (because its not big enought and loosing with alt/btc market) - without dumping alt/btc price enought to make investor sell beacuse usd market is too small to do that.
4-ALT/USD price incrise
5-trading bots set to earn usd buys their coins (in most cases throught btc)
6-ALT/BTC and ALT/USD price incrise even more
7-now is the moment when investors makes decision to buy(only those who are on the market at this moment - previous steps takes only seconds cous they are totaly automatic) (some of them are buing because they see price incrise, some on them buys because bitcoin is mother of coins, and some of them buys because they know that it must drop due to economical reason)
8-ALT/BTC and USD/ALT price drop
9-more and more investors buys - they also learn their lesson to buy when bitcoin goes up because it alwais makes altcoin pump because bitcoin is mother of coins... (as you can see its not the only reason)

As you can see i only changes a little and it looks logical (at liest to me - i would love to discuss if it dont looks logical for You)

Interresting things happends when bitcoin is rising too fast !!
If you havent seen that beafore there is link - sorry for poor quality. I was recording it beeing drunk using my phone:p
https://vimeo.com/274354783

Bitcoin was at 11% up this day. And as you can see just starged big run what cauesd altcoin drops. (very short term)

1-Bitcoin price pump.
2-calculated altcoin price $ goes up(btc price * alt/btc price)
3-arbitrage bots sells altcoins for btc and buy them on usd market making pumping there. Spread is that huge that bots can make huge transactions to still be on profit. This makes ALT/BTC goes down a litle
4-ALT/BTC goes down
5-trading bots are chasing bitcoin instead of buying alts (not so sure about that)
6-stoploses set on alt/btc price (this pull alt/btc down more)
7-ALT/BTC goes down
8-now is the moment when investors makes decision (their decision would be to jump on the running train (thats why bitcoin rising too fast is sucking money out of altcoins)
9-ALT/BTC and USD/ALT price drop
10- more and more inveswotrs are runnig to catch bitcoin



Well to be honest im not so sure that existance of altcoins decrise bitcoin value. When you first think about it you might think that someone who would invest in bitcoin now has other coin. But think of it like a RPG game. Does good sword decrise goldcoin value in $? No, good sword incrise demand on goldcoin because gamers want that sword and to buy it you need to buy goldcoins - if you dont have enought in game (RPG allegory - jump to last acapit of my first post). Lets talk about it !!

I've seen in too. In january and february we had dozen of bad news. From bans, gouverments, high bitcoin fees, exchanges wasnt able to handle the load, Soros, Gates, Buffett thoughts - everything looks like its the end of crypto. But et the end of february  it fill like end of storm. No clouds on the sky and pure view on the shiny moon.

Price is manipulated by whales. Just imagine that you are a whale. What would you do seeing bitcoin at 20 000? I would sell or even sell and short. And what if you are that rich and influential that you can manipulate media? Without it you will earn 100 mil out of 1 bil invested with it you will earn 1bil out of 1 bil invested.

About the exchanges - i think that they realy wasnt abo to give quality servise at this load. Even now when pump and dump grups are pumping coins on binance they have problem to keep up with the transactions.

My strategy is to buy and hodl bitcoin. And with this bitcoin daytrade and trade long and middle term with altcoins. When market is in bear mode i daytrade. When it deeped low enought i start to grab coins for longer period of time. But et the end i dont care how much $ i have. I care how much bitcoins i have becouse this is my hodl coin.

They fallow coin that they have bigger volumen at (like some of etherum tokens). Funny thing could be when any of coin will overtake bitcoin (for example ripple). Will still bitcoin be a compass or mayby this coin will become that? I think, but im not sure, that as long as bitcoin will still be "goldcoin" as long evey "game item" will depends on its price.

Why a partner? Why dont just create account on every exchange, sell on one and buy on other? Why is partner nessasary for it?
You can also lanch YT tutorial video and code your own trading bot. Its the safest and the fastest way to arbitrage.

Why do altcoin price fallow bitcoin price?
Why does that happend that fast and that precised?
Are they somehow connected?
Is it possible for altcoin to be independent of bitcoin price movent?

I've seen this questions manny times on this forum. Thats why I've decided to write post about it to give you guys econonomical explanation of this phenomen and also only post link to this when ill see another topic like that .

Introducion - why psychological explanation is not enought?

We all know that bitcoin is mother of all coins and "compass showing north or sounth for others" - this is psychological explanation. But if investors decision (to sell or not to sell) would be the only reason would this price change be that fast and precised. I mean if you look at btc/usd chart it looks almost the same as almost every altcoin chart (up and down peeks in the same time period). What is the percentage of people fallowing this concept "BTC - mother of coins - is going down omg i need to sell my alt as fast as possible " - even if its not connected to bitcoin - its not currency but utility token for example? I guess they are not strong enought to pull market up or down that much.

What is the main reason for that if psychological expenation is not enought?

Answer to this question is that they are economicaly conected.
Now 90-100% of any altcoin volume is made in pair alt/btc and only 0-10% in fiat/alt (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/neo/#markets neo for example). (ether is exception for that but we will talk about ether later)

When in 90% altcoin is traded by bitcoin than bitoin drop have to make price drop of altcoin. Why? Beacuse calculated price (btc value x altcoin value in bitcoins) is getting lower and lower because btc value is getting lower. Big USD market is making it more independent from bitcoin move, because arbitrage bots buys cheep bitcoin, cheep alft from it and sells it on usd market. So if its big enought it can cover bitcoin drop making alt/btc price incrise making ALT/USD stable. But USD maket is not big enought and fallowing sequence of events starts:

1-Bitcoin price drop.
2-calculated altcoin price $ drop (btc price * alt/btc price)
3-arbitrage bots buys altcoins for btc and sell on usd market making drop there (because its not big enought and loosing with alt/btc market) - without pushing alt/btc price higher enought to make investor buy beacuse usd market is too small to do that.
4-ALT/USD price drop
5-trading bots set to earn usd sells their coins (in most cases throught btc)
6-ALT/BTC and ALT/USD price drops even more
7-stoploses launches
8-ALT/BTC and USD/ALT price drop
9-now is the moment when investors makes decision to sell (only those who are on the market at this moment - previous steps takes only seconds cous they are totaly automatic) (some of them are selling because they see price drop and are running away, some on them sell because bitcoin is mother of coins, and some of them sell because they know that it must drop due to economical reason)
10-ALT/BTC and USD/ALT price drop
11-more and more investors sells - they also learn their lesson to sell when bitcoin drops because it alwais makes altcoin drops because bitcoin is mother of coins... (as you can see its not the only reason)

Thats why its so mechanical. Bitcoin drops and in the same second altcoin price drops.

Is there any chance that altcoins will be independent of bitcoin?

Yes. But only with USD/ALT volumen bigger than BTC/ALT volumen and investors confident about cryptocurrency (when one coin drop you jump to another instead of to USD to save dolars).

Bitcoin drop will not make alt/usd price drop only when USD market is big enought and also new investors buys this coin through bitcoin to increase alt/btc price to cover decrise made by arbitrage bots.
Ether is not that related to bitcoin because it has bigger USD market. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/#markets
As you can see its more like 50:50 or 40:60 instead of 90:10 to 100:0 in other alts (alt/BTC : ALT/fiat). Thats why its price is more independent than other alts but still fallows bitcoin.

Think of it like this. Money are pumped into cryptocurrencies mostly by bitcoin (90-95%?) in some cases by ether or litecoin. So if any alt drops it only changes hands (someone who has bitcoin now has alt and someone who has alt now has bitcoin - amount of fiat pumped into market is still the same). When bitcoin drops it means that someone pulled money from whole market.

If you still dont get it ill expain it to you otherwise:

Imagine cryptocurrency world as RPG online game. There are gold coins that can be obtained in game and also equipement runes etc. If you want to lvl your characet faster you can buy gold coins on ebay to buy good equipement in game. If you want to buy best and very rare sword in game you need to buy goldcoins on ebay and than buy sword for goldcoins in game. How much is this sword worth? You can calculate it only through goldcoins (goldcoins price x sword price in goldcoins - for example u can say my sword in game is worth 100$ - without buying it for 100$ but buying coins for 100$). Now if goldcoin price drops on ebay than your sword is worth less. Because to sell it you need to go throught goldcoins. Thats makes your sword price vulnerable to 2 factors.

In cryptocurrency world everything looks the same but the fact that 90% of volumen of altcoins (sword) is traded through bitcoin (goldcoins) (not 100%). But those 10% is not strong enought to hold price.

Altcoins are for me only multiples of bitcoin price. Its price is made by 2 factors - bitcoin price(goldcoins price) and multiplier (sword price in goldcoins). Multipier depends on various things like hype, news, team, whitepaper, possible future of project etc (like in game - rareness, beeing the best sword, look).

Ether is not that related to bitcoin becouse it has bigger USD market. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/#markets

As you can see its more like 50:50 or 40:60 instead of 90:10 to 99:1 in other alts (alt/BTC : ALT/fiat) . Thats why its price is more independent than other alts but still fallows bitcoin.

Am I here the only person who came to explain hard topic instead of writing the same sh.... to only increase number of posts?
You realy think that your one sentence started with "i think" is not a SPAM here after atrocityx expaining exacly how it mentaly works in investors head and me explaining how it economicaly work.

They are economicaly conected. Its not only investors decission. As op wrote it happends too fast. Read my post. I explained how it economicaly works -  how without any investors decision price drops only by arbitrage bots and trading bots. Of cours this is indicator. Investors are doing their job after it. But they are sellig altcoin during bitcoin drop becouse they know it will drop too by their traiding experience. Not becouse bitcoin is the biggest and every has to fallow it. If all altcoins would be separated (traded only with fiat or at liest 90% volume in fiat pair) than it would be like OP wrote. Bitcoin drop would incrise btc/alt price.