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4881  Economy / Economics / Re: Slippery Slope's Million Dollar Logistic Model on: May 27, 2014, 04:49:46 PM
Here is the latest chart of Log10 delta from trend, which is most helpful when considering relative bitcoin price bubbles . . .

The three charts and calculations of my logistic price model are published in a shared Google spreadsheet here.

If we name the zone below -0.3 as the ridiculous rock-bottom slam-dunk buy zone, we are now in the middle of it at -0.35.
4882  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: May 27, 2014, 04:35:06 PM
I am not a fan of any idea that derives the fee from value, because it's arbitrary and not anchored in the reality of the situation.

If you try to price gouge your users, they will leave. People accepted Bitcoin because of Satoshi's social contract and Bitcoin would not be used if fee based on value was a function.

I think a fee based on the value transferred is a natural thing. I envision that 0.01% should be low enough to cause no problems.

If you think people would leave Bitcoin if such a fee was implemented, why do you think they use PayPal or WU with their 4-10% fees?

Shocker: I myself use one bitcoin service that takes 0.90% as fees. It is just so handy for small transactions.
4883  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: May 27, 2014, 02:46:11 PM
i value  your opinion very much. could you give us your opinion on XC

I don't know much about it except what is there in the website.

Its fully mined market cap is $25M, compared to Monero's $45M and DRK's $220M.

It has been in a pump.

It is all up the the devs and community at this point. I believe DRK will fail and hope that MRO succeeds, but can't say of this one.
4884  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 27, 2014, 02:17:43 PM
Namecoin isn't a monetary coin.

LMAO for non-monetary coins.
4885  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: May 27, 2014, 02:11:28 PM
: D

You are drunk.

24 hours ban from posting to the thread.
4886  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: May 27, 2014, 01:46:11 PM
How come did you spend so many words to debunk him?  Cheesy
4887  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 27, 2014, 01:31:20 PM
You may also be interested in Namecoin.  IMHO, it also satisfies both your criteria.  It was launched already in 2011 (and was actually the first altcoin ever, I think), so not too much hype.  And it implements real technical additions over Bitcoin, unlikely to be added to Bitcoin.  (Even more unlikely than Bitcoin gaining strong anonymity, IMHO.)

Namecoin has had enough time to prove that it is not going anywhere.
4888  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: May 27, 2014, 01:21:23 PM
- this means only buyers own it and only sellers can sell .

Unfortunately for you, me and the likes of me think of it as 100% premine and would never even consider buying it.
4889  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: May 27, 2014, 10:56:40 AM
It's a weird game, but the rules are different for alts than btc. They have to make an impression and make it stick - fast.

Do I have to tell why I have never invested in an alt before?  Cheesy

If all they have been good for is p&d and you see immediately from the parameters that even in theory thay have no lasting power regardless of the success of the pump...

I am fine with MRO. As long as the team takes it to the right direction and there is an active and growing community and the technology promise is intact, I have no problem just buying more if it goes lower. In the worst case I end up buying them all (followed by an event nullifying their value) and still will have spent less than 1% of my stash  Tongue
4890  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: May 27, 2014, 10:00:44 AM
I mentioned this in ToF, so let it be known here also that I like MRO very much at 0.002, I like it at 0.004, but would not buy over 0.010. Going to 0.020 in the immediate future is a sell zone with an intention to buy back at 0.010 or less.

The thing is, not to state the obvious because I''m sure you're very aware; If you believe MRO/BTC going to 0.002 when it's currently 0.004 if you sell at 0.004 and manage to buy back in at avg 0.002 you've increasing your holdings 100%. In such a fickle and volatile markets where these kinds of falls and rises are inevitable, where is the sense in not doing this?

a) I am not believing it. Saying I'd like to have something implies that it is something that likely does not happen.

b) Even if it does happen, there is no way to both sell my position now and buy it back then, with perfect timing and no slippage. If BTC is doing its yearly wave, I can capture maybe 30% of the downtrend with 30% of my position, resulting in a 13% gain in my holdings. I have no fantasies that I could do any better with an alt, and due to their 250:1 difference in marketcap, I would spend equal amount of time in netting 250 times less.

Therefore I just buy below 0.010 and sell above 0.020 if we get there. Smiley
4891  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: May 27, 2014, 09:54:36 AM
At 0.01 BTC, MRO would have a circulation value of 120,000 BTC in two years.

This is rather high, the only sweet spot being that if MRO does succeed to become a default sister currency to Bitcoin, we might be able to expect a market cap of 500,000 BTC.

Obviously this is a best case scenario.

Around 2 - 4 years MRO does start becoming quite rare, however it's going to take guts to hold through the first few years.

Since I am not a daytrader, I am counting on just that.

At 0.10 MRO is looking a tad expensive, at 0.020 it is an overshoot given the current fundamentals. It just happens to be the #2 currency which is currently at #21 Smiley I will tell when my perception changes.

I am repeating myself but the greatest asset of Bitcoin is its userbase, which has become as it is as a result of a long ongoing process of distribution the coins by mining and trading. I see that something similar is happening with MRO, unlike 99% of other coins. The slow distribution is an absolute prerequisite for the coin's long-term success. Any premine, instamine, ninjamine, IPO, PoS or other gimmick is not working. They are not legitimate, and the market shuns them, after the pump&dump has done its course. AUR had the best environment to try unselfish premine and direct distribution, but even that was a failure.
4892  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: May 27, 2014, 09:22:26 AM
You can't really go against the grain of the market when you working on short to mid term. no reason to stay in one place when there's consistent % gains denominated in BTC to be had across the whole market. 

Ah ok. I am not interested in that (as reasoned in the OP). I have enough gains in BTC. I am not really angry if MRO is tanking and I know full well how many dollars of new investment is needed each day to retain the valuation.

As with BTC, it does not matter what the price is. What matters is how many % of the coin you own, if the technology is sound and has a potential to break out. MRO was the first coin with interesting technology and fair launch. That's why I hold approx the same % as I hold BTC.

I mentioned this in ToF, so let it be known here also that I like MRO very much at 0.002, I like it at 0.004, but would not buy over 0.010. Going to 0.020 in the immediate future is a sell zone with an intention to buy back at 0.010 or less.
4893  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 27, 2014, 08:46:40 AM
I don't think we're going lower then this tbh

headed to 630 in a couple days

540 retest was question for discussion. Thoughts for/against?

We have not yet seen any Fibonacci retracements during the breakout. If there is one in the cards now, it would be about 538. So yes, I support this one. 500 should hold because that's the 2nd retracement level.
4894  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 27, 2014, 08:37:32 AM
=> I bought MRO

But would you have still taken a speculative position in MRO if you could freely claim a share of a spin-off clone of Monero in proportion to your bitcoin holdings?

I don't know, maybe maybe not. But that does not change the fact that:
a) if there's such a clone, I'll get my share for free anyway  Cheesy
b) MRO was the first coin that fulfilled my 2 criteria for a viable altcoin.

Besides imo a "speculative position" is something that is a larger % of the coin's eventual market cap than you have of Bitcoin's market cap. A hedge position is an equal percentage.
4895  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 27, 2014, 07:10:41 AM
Here's a tip for those people who keep dumping around 600. If you don't dump the price will go up and your coins will be worth more. Crazy rocket science, i know.

That's a prisoner's dilemma type situation though that could never happen in practice, because one bad actor dumps and takes advantage of the other people holding.

Anyone who dumps here without buying back in short order is as stupid as I was in 9/2013 selling 2,000+ btc, my biggest (and by and large the only) really stupid trade.

That's not bad if you could learn from your mistake and 2000BTC was only a small portion of your profile.

Yes, both.

But at this point anyone should just hold on to their coins, since the risk/reward going forward 3 months is just so unbelievably good. I can't think of any reason to reduce the exposure right now. Even selling at 400 had some merit for some, but selling now does not.

(Trading aside - you can try trading an uptrend, I don't, but if you are good go for it. Ask the ones who sold at 547 a few days ago what was their buyback  Roll Eyes )
4896  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 27, 2014, 07:06:08 AM
Sorry to derail the thread even further, but this seems just like darkcoin? What is the benefit of this over it?

There has to be two things for an alt to have a snowball's chance to succeed:
- A real benefit over BTC, which is not implementable in BTC
- Slow public launch with no premine to distribute the coins fairly and widely, while keeping the network secure for years to come

MRO is the almost only altcoin ever to have a launch that qualifies. What a luck that it is one of only a few coins that fulfil the tech criterion also.

=> I bought MRO, but not darkcoin (it does not fill either, because of instamine, and problems in tech - even now it is down due to fork).

If ever a second coin comes that has real novelty value (copy of MRO of course does not count) and a good team and fair launch, I may buy it.

But true, this discussion is better in my new thread. Let's stop. Smiley
4897  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 27, 2014, 06:19:25 AM
Here's a tip for those people who keep dumping around 600. If you don't dump the price will go up and your coins will be worth more. Crazy rocket science, i know.

That's a prisoner's dilemma type situation though that could never happen in practice, because one bad actor dumps and takes advantage of the other people holding.

Anyone who dumps here without buying back in short order is as stupid as I was in 9/2013 selling 2,000+ btc, my biggest (and by and large the only) really stupid trade.
4898  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 27, 2014, 06:06:21 AM
I think alts amplify Bitcoin potential.

but only as testing grounds.  anything worthwhile should be assimilated into Bitcoin when possible. 

the larger issue, as indicated by impulse above, is how do any of the alts implement a distribution mechanism that comes close to what Satoshi did?  he set a very high standard of what are now considered best practices in this new virtual currency world.  i'm thinking it's impossible unless you're willing to do the entire development model for free and somehow keep yourself anonymous.  but then at that point why wouldn't you just develop/enhance the market leader itself, Bitcoin, which stands to be the ultimate winner?

Monero is an example of a coin that is trying to do exactly that. The devs don't hold a privileged position, there is no premine, the coin hit exchanges last week when less than 5% were mined. It takes forever to mine the rest of the coins (80% in 4 years but exponential decay).

The ways to build a monster position are - mining with multiple CPUs, - buying in the exchanges, - making markets. All these are beneficial activities for the coin. Due to high inflation, pumping is difficult/impossible (new mining alone acts as a dampener on pumps). All in all a nice coin, aiming to have real anonymity with CryptoNote coin mixing, and my first altcoin investment ever Smiley
4899  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: May 27, 2014, 05:48:05 AM
Monero, my man, why are you tanking?  Angry

Thank you for explanations. My own (unchanged from the time of the provocative question) is that:

MRO's inflation is designed to be very high in the opening months (the only alternative being premine, instamine or IPO - none of which showing much success in the way of distributing the initial monetary base in a fair and functioning way). At present we are generating about 23,000 MRO per day with the BTC value of BTC104. Bitcoin is generating BTC3600 per day.

Since MRO's new supply is 2.9% of that of Bitcoin, it surely needs to be real interesting for the price to rise significantly.

Again, I don't think this is a bad thing. It is just the nature of the fair coin generation function (and the very reason I lost my alt virginity). When Bitcoin was launched in 2009, the price went basically nowhere in the following 1.5 years. But once the inflation had slowed and exchange opened, it started the 6400x moonshot in 1 year.

When MRO is 1.5 years old, about 40% of the supply will have been mined and the inflation has been slowed to 14k MRO/day. At that point it is difficult to imagine that the price would be this low Wink On the other hand, the network security will still be there unlike with the rapidly mined coins.

All scamcoins, pump&dumpcoins, IPO-"coins", 100%premine-coins: you have yet to see your 1.5th birthday. Wink
4900  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: rpietila Altcoin Observer on: May 26, 2014, 04:24:41 PM
Monero, my man, why are you tanking?  Angry
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