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4941  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013 on: February 03, 2013, 11:16:45 PM
It's very possible in 5 years time there could even be a war within Bitcoin itself.  The problem with the 1MB size limit for example and how to deal with it.  As problems and solutions come up, I could see forks in Bitcoin as a possibility.  Some people go with Bitcoin-y for a certain reason while others go with Bitcoin-x for other reasons.

If that's the case then the early, pre-fork Bitcoins would be more valuable as they could be used on all chains.  An early adopter bonus, if you will.

If there is really a fork with unlimited transaction size, then most will follow it without questioning, people are ignorant, as long as their coins are valid Grin
4942  Economy / Speculation / Re: Something interesting is happening on: February 03, 2013, 11:03:38 PM
Actually as a business owner, he might be very willing to take customer payment in BTC's form, so he can do whatever he want with those BTCs and they will never appear in the tax declaration  Cheesy

There are so many chinese business owner who have plenty of fiat money at hand without any good investment target
4943  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price in 5 years - 2/2013 on: February 03, 2013, 10:56:40 PM
No, by that time, there is no other currency, no exchange rate Cool
4944  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Soon BTC will be ecological! on: February 02, 2013, 03:43:20 PM
Given this view, the BTC price will eventually equal to the electricity cost for each miner in average, given 3600 miner and average 1 BTC per miner per day, if the price really reached 200$, that means each miner will be able to put in 1000Kwh electricity to mine 1 BTC per day, that is crazy, heavy pollution
4945  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Soon BTC will be ecological! on: February 02, 2013, 04:16:54 AM
I think like this:

First year, there are only 7200 miners, they divide 7200BTC per day, average 1 BTC per miner per day

Second year, there are now 14400 miners and they divide 3600 BTC perday, average 0.25BTC per miner per day

But the price increased by 4X and every miner still get the same amount of return in USD's form, the price increase keep the mining operation profitable, since they have to pay the electricity

Now, the ASIC arrived, there are still 14000 miners divide 3600 BTC per day, but some of the miners have upgraded to ASIC, and some of the miners will quit the game, so generally I think the number of miners will decrease and their share of BTC per day will increase (because ASIC supply is much more limited comparing with GPU supply before)

But on the power usage side, if the BTC price rise very high, then the power usage will rise accordingly, so ecological or not, purely depend on the BTC price, if the price is high, then the consumption of energy will be high, it has nothing to do with the technology used for mining
4946  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: The MAX_BLOCK_SIZE fork on: February 01, 2013, 08:58:06 PM
If the transaction fees are changed to algorithmically follow the block space as I expect would be an alternative solution to this, what will happen is that bitcoin will become expensive enough for an alternative crypto-currency to arise. An alternative to bitcoin which is cheaper will succeed and bitcoin will fail. Thus the only way to keep bitcoin alive is to allow for more volume, such that demand can be satisfied.

Boy that's a shortsighted analysis.

Bitcoin will grow layers above the base layer -- the blockchain -- that will enable instant transactions, microtransactions, and other scalable issues.

Do not think that the blockchain is the only way to transfer bitcoins.

Larger aggregators will easily compensate for current maximum block size in a scalable manner.

All nation-state/fiat currencies are multi-layer.  Too many people look at what bitcoin does now, and assume that those are the only currency services that will ever exist.



Highly agreed, I also think all the changes could be done at higher level without modifying the original protocal, to keep the integrity of the blockchain
4947  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: How do you make decisions for a change in BTC protocal on: February 01, 2013, 08:37:01 PM
I never said I will force a change, I mean if we need to consider a hard fork or not, take block size for example, some people do not like big block, some others think that is a necessary for future success of BTC, how do you solve that conflict?

See the other discussion about block size:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=140233.0

You can not always avoid the problem with technology, the decision making is unavoidable for everyone, either follow or not follow a new fork. If that fork is coming from very authoritive guys like core developers, there will be conflicts, maybe half of the people stay with original protocal and the other half go for the new protocal, then...

4948  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / How do you make decisions for a change in BTC protocal on: February 01, 2013, 03:34:46 PM
I had a feeling that this will become a question sooner or later, either we stick to the original protocal, or we have a mechanism to solve the conflict in opinion

I personally hate politics, during my working years at super multinational corporation, it is always political change that made people feel unsafe and uncertain, and that always changed the product consistency

But the world will always change in an unexpected way, so the ability to be able to change might be needed for survival. Every change could also lead to ruin, so who have the right to decide this change? And who can be responsible for the result of the change if it turns out to be a disaster?

If we really need to do the change, it should be very well understood, tested by the mass and it never change the consistency of BTC itself
4949  Economy / Speculation / Re: Something interesting is happening on: February 01, 2013, 02:25:41 PM
Let's say that there are couple of semiconductor manufactures, they accept BTC payment, then they need to use BTC to pay salary for employee and other costs, unless all that cost can be paied in BTC, some exchange is needed

But, they could have a deep saving account in local currency, so they just accumulate BTC in the process, while use the local currency saving to pay for the costs, this could be considered a benefit if the BTC price rise continuously, but then Avalon ASIC sale in BTC ensured this will happen

There are many levels of this kind of self improving feed back, as long as the price is rising
4950  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: New Drama from BitcoinASIC on: February 01, 2013, 06:27:00 AM
I just wonder when will AMD join the game...  Their stock performance is miserable, this might be the chance to turn the tide for the company, they could easily produce the most advanced ASIC devices using their 40nm process and very mature cooling solution, then we will back to the old gpu mining era  Grin Grin

Like, 0.1% of their GPU sales are for mining. The market isn't big enough for AMD ASIC yet.

I guess many of their high end GPU were bought to mine coins. This day is not far away if BTC price rise enough high, making ASIC devices are much eaiser than graphic cards, they need only a small project setup, and their 32nm process is already mature
4951  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: New Drama from BitcoinASIC on: February 01, 2013, 05:47:17 AM
I just wonder when will AMD join the game...  Their stock performance is miserable, this might be the chance to turn the tide for the company, they could easily produce the most advanced ASIC devices using their 40nm process and very mature cooling solution, then we will back to the old gpu mining era  Grin Grin
4952  Economy / Speculation / Re: Where do you think we are in the bubble? on: February 01, 2013, 01:48:53 AM
As long as Ben do not tighten, exchange price will rise
4953  Economy / Economics / Re: Will bitcoin become too expensive to spend? on: January 31, 2013, 11:11:45 PM
No, if BTC price rise to enough high, then you can consider spending some of them

You spend money because of:

1. The value of that money is dropping because of inflation
2. You have enough of that money
3. You have constant income of that money

1  is not valid for BTC
2. might be valid when BTC price rose to enough high
3. Even if you are a large scale miner and you mine a couple of coins per day (only  3600 per day in total) , you will only be able to spend couple of coins per day at maximum


4954  Economy / Speculation / Something interesting is happening on: January 31, 2013, 10:49:43 PM
Last year, I have pointed out that if some very hot electronic product (for example iphone5) only accpet BTC purchase, then it will push the price up and act as an accelerator for the BTC economy

Now something interesting happened: Avalon ASICs second batch only accept BTC payment

This is a self generated demand, for almost 1 million dollar. This will push the price up and the effect is already shown on the mtgox price

And the question is: What will happen then? There are many variables, but will it result in a self-accelerated loop or just cool down when Avalon dump their BTC payment to buy semiconductor components?
4955  Economy / Economics / Re: Concerned about the recent BTC price rise. on: January 31, 2013, 10:31:43 PM
BTC is scarce, the supply is constantly decrease, if someone sold a huge amount of BTC, he will very likely to buy it back at a much higher price level, and it is not a guarantee he can get that same amount of BTC without pushing price much higher, so basically it is difficult for investors to act on the short side

Other things like gold/oil/house, the supply can always increase with added production capacity, so the price development is much more uncertain

4956  Economy / Economics / Re: Concerned about the recent BTC price rise. on: January 31, 2013, 05:56:56 AM
It's driven by speculation, any serious speculator will never miss this vehicle, this is just the beginning

5 hedge funds, each push the price to a target area (like 4x) and dump it to the next one, they keep buying and selling with profit, same game wallstreet guys have been playing for decades

Actually I think the biggest enemy of BTC are these players with huge amount of fiat capital, although BTC was designed to be a currency free of central banks manipulation, it still could be manipulated by the powerfull players in the market
4957  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Naming of bitcoin fractions on: January 30, 2013, 08:31:45 PM
One Bitcoin can be compared with one ounce gold coin, so we could use 1/2, 1/4, 1/10 BTC etc...

Below that, there are other weight unit, like carat (bitcarat) and grain (bitgrain)

I suggest that one carat bitcoin (bitcarat) = 1/1000 bitcoin, this sounds luxury enough Grin

And one grain bitcoin (bitgrain) = 100 satoshi = 1/1,000,000 bitcoin
4958  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Avalon is (unfortunately) a scam. Here is why. on: January 29, 2013, 10:11:36 PM
I believe it is not a scam, but there are much more besides a working product, I think BFL feels like a well established business, while avalon feels the opposite, especially the custom service
4959  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [Announcement] Avalon ASIC Ships on: January 29, 2013, 03:56:39 AM
Bigger than a mini pc case, how could it automatically connect to your wifi without any user interface to input the wifi password? Grin

Whaaaa? If it was smaller than a mini pc case, it could automatically connect to your wifi?

Then it might have a touchscreen  Cheesy
4960  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [Announcement] Avalon ASIC Ships on: January 29, 2013, 12:51:10 AM
Bigger than a mini pc case, how could it automatically connect to your wifi without any user interface to input the wifi password? Grin
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