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4981  Other / Politics & Society / Re: national minimum wage LAWS. good or bad? on: December 15, 2012, 04:42:03 AM
What is the minimum wage of a cat? I think she get a good social welfare system and do not need to work

Similarly, rich people having too much production power, they could afford to have some people walking around in the city without doing anything, just like pets. Or more positively, they want a pleasant social environment that everyone has a good living standard, so that they enjoy seeing everyone walking on the street have smile  Smiley
4982  Economy / Economics / Re: Has the 'Bitcoin Experiment' changed your political or economic views at all? on: December 15, 2012, 01:58:36 AM
I remember watching a russia film <pyramid> a while ago, people exchange everything they have to get a special kind of bond since the return is doubled every week or two
4983  Economy / Economics / Re: Has the 'Bitcoin Experiment' changed your political or economic views at all? on: December 14, 2012, 11:39:50 PM
This could be the most dangerous experiment in human history, maybe human itself will be destroyed by this experiment

There have been many bubbles in human history, but with any other bubbles, central bank can always reduce the money supply to cool down the crazyness (and crash will become unavoidable). This bubble however, could develop itself into a blackhole and suck all the values in the world into it, and no one in the world can control this monster

With traditional bubbles, when most of the people have get hold of the inflated asset, the game is almost over. There is an exist for any kind of investment strategy. But for a currency, no one will get satisfied, everyone want a little bit more, the investment is endless
4984  Economy / Economics / Re: Fed to spend $45 billion a month on Treasury bonds on: December 14, 2012, 11:15:35 PM
Take FRB for example, the reason that banks can do FRB is because people trust bank and seldom tried to withdraw their money to see if they are there, this is a normal behavior of almost everyone. And further, banks can set some penalty on those early withdraws, to technically secure their FRB
4985  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Eric Schmidt: "I'm proud of our tax avoidance scheme...it's called capitalism" on: December 14, 2012, 10:55:21 PM
The biggest tax evaders are banks, they have many instruments to hide their income
4986  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Economic Growth - What do you want? on: December 14, 2012, 12:28:20 PM
Powerful escrow service could also help a lot, actually I would like to invest in them
4987  Economy / Economics / Re: Annual Gross Income and Currency Debasement on: December 14, 2012, 03:44:20 AM
It's not the income itself that really gets affected from what I know but rather how much you can afford, so what inflation does it causes prices to rise far more than any speculative trading could cause and that means if your employers aren't getting extra money from money printing both you and they have to work longer and cut costs even further in order to pay for things that would previously be lower in price.

If most of the companies did not get the newly printed money, how could the price rise? A price rise only comes from either salary rise or raw material price rise, but salary level will be contained in a high jobless rate environment and raw material price will be pushed down by expanding mining capacity
4988  Economy / Economics / Re: Annual Gross Income and Currency Debasement on: December 14, 2012, 03:38:44 AM
Roughly, how much per cent of the Annual Gross Income value does a State rip in currency debasement? I mean, how the two values can be related, roughly, just to have an idea.

It's dynamic: If the money printing speed is not enough high, there will be deflation; if it is too high, there will be inflation.

The Annual Gross Income of the whole society is increasing all the time due to higher and higher efficiency caused by automation and technology advance. Actually, it can increase much faster if enough money is supplied

4989  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Economic Growth - What do you want? on: December 14, 2012, 02:58:29 AM
Everything that can be delivered through network, like game/domain/antivirus subscription, software download, music, etc...

With a well established local currency exchange, anything can be included, but that is not a good direction IMO, BTC should be mostly seperated from the real economy to grow enough strong to let the real economy chase BTC

4990  Economy / Economics / Re: Fed to spend $45 billion a month on Treasury bonds on: December 14, 2012, 01:02:39 AM
Johnyj, try thinking for a moment, where is all that money going to come from to purchase the bonds? Oh yeah! Printing! Because there sure aren't countries that can afford it in taxes! Tongue Just like when the banks got bailed out the government had to ask the fed for money to do it, how did they get that money? Printing again! You think the federal reserve actually has any money of its own? Trust me, it doesn't, even if it did have stuff like gold for instance which they have reportedly been stocking up on, they certainly aren't going to share it with you muppets, you're getting conned and you don't even know it, it's the ultimate scam.

The whole banking business is constructed upon trust. People trust money, it is this trust gave banks so much power that they should not have. Unless there is a high inflation rate, this trust is almost unbreakable. As long as people trust their money in the bank (backed by FDIC), as long as they get a job and have dollar to pay the bill, they do not care about what FED do.

FED by doing this will surely create job and improve the economy, but it is very questionable that this way is efficient: The purchasing power FED created will first go into banks' pocket, until banks get well feed, they won't do anything. For each 2 dollars they created, there maybe only 1 dollar actually goes out and create a job.

The money borrowed by government could be more efficient, those money will be directly put into construction/modernazation projects to create job immediately

4991  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin major fail - doesn't allow credit creation (aka deflationary currency) on: December 13, 2012, 05:47:36 AM

But with BTC, loan is not very common (people would rather take loan in an inflating currency, USD for example), this scenario is less likely to realize

You should look over in the "lending" part of the forum, there are people making loans in btc right now.

someone there claim that 90-95% of people there turned out to be a scammer

And even without scam, loan in BTC will have problem

yochdog's 10000 BTC loan at 10% annual rate is a good example

At the end of his post, he claimed that he want to pre-pay the loan since the rising exchange rate already made his day much much harder

Of course, he could get those BTC to buy new ASIC mining rigs, which in turn can generate some coin to pay back his loan, but anyway, when you want to borrow money, you always borrow the money with the lowest interest rate (inflated money), like those carry traders do
4992  Economy / Economics / Re: Fed to spend $45 billion a month on Treasury bonds on: December 13, 2012, 05:30:33 AM
There will be no inflation, the CPI index do not include house price and treasury note price

I still doubt it will improve the employment right away

On the bond buying side, government will get more money to spend, then government sponsored long term projects could absorb some jobless people, but there is a debt ceiling

On the MBS buying side, normal people with a house will find their home worth more and they need to pay less interest, this will increase their income but they do not have that much to buy

4993  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin major fail - doesn't allow credit creation (aka deflationary currency) on: December 12, 2012, 01:31:34 AM
True! I almost forgot that I can always check the blockchain for my account balance, so that banks won't be able to move that fund

The blockchain based banking do not allow FRB
Certainly bitcoin banking would allow FRB.  You can check the balance of bitcoin that the bank is holding in reserves only if the bank chooses to provide you with the list of bitcoin addresses where all their bitcoin is stored and provide you with proof that they have the private keys associated with those addresses.  But even then, you only have half the story.  You know how much they have in reserve in total, but you have no knowledge about what the total is of all deposits they have.  A bank won't keep your funds segregated in its own address anymore than they keep your fiat segregated in its own envelope.  All deposits get mixed together.  The bitcoins you withdraw aren't likely to be the same ones you depoisted.

Then it is not a blockchain based banking, they have created their own accounting system to track transactions

Historically the reason for banks doing this is because the interest difference between loan and deposit could generate income for them, so the more they can loan out, the more income they will get

But with BTC, loan is not very common (people would rather take loan in an inflating currency, USD for example), this scenario is less likely to realize
4994  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoins Can Inflate Too - Stop worrying about deflation. on: December 12, 2012, 01:20:14 AM
This process can continue until there are a total of 110 bitcoins worth of deposits.
So magically, 11 "real" bitcoins becomes 110 bitcoins worth of spending power in the economy.
This is an accounting fraud, it is only 110 BTC on the bank's deposit record, at any time the spending power in the whole economy will never exceed 11 BTC, since that is all the BTC existed
You can call it "accounting fraud" if you like, but it doesn't change the fact that there is then 110 bitcoins worth of spending power in the whole economy.

There are never 110 bitcoins worth of spending power in the whole economy. If you look at the first person, he have 11 BTC worth of saving at bank, but bank already loaned out 90% of that money to other people, if he try to withdraw all that money and spend, he will cause a bankrun. The same apply to everyone else who saved at banks during this multiply process, so the only way they can withdraw and spend without causing the total failure of the banking system, is that they never withdraw more than 10% of their saving, so 110x10%=11, you will get 11 BTC spendable which is the original BTC in existance

. . . Why will people use banks instead of just keeping their own secure wallets?  A variety of reasons.  Perhaps . . .
Very true, these are some of the benefits of having a bank. But in BTC's case, things are different: Not so many people will take loan from a BTC bank, since the loan interest is just too high when no real world projects can have higher ROI than BTC itself. And without loan, banks can not make a living, or they simply become an asset management business
You are operating under the assumption that holding Bitcoin will continue to provide a higher "ROI" than other projects indefinitely.  I assume that the exchange rate will eventually even out and increase through deflation of the spendable supply at a slower rate providing an opportunity for other projects to provide higher (and safer) ROI.
[/quote]

BTC's value will rise because:
1. The supply increase is less and less
2. The popularity is higher and higher
3. When all the coins have been mined, if the economy (GDP) still grows, then the corresponding BTC will keep rise in value

4995  Economy / Economics / Re: What would happen if everyone got 1000 USD every month? on: December 11, 2012, 11:51:50 PM
Money has to be produced to faciliatate the trade, this is the original reason of money printing

If you give people money, it is better ask people to do something to exchange for it, if they can get if for free, then it will lose credibility

But in a rich society, anyway you will give money to some people for free since they are at too low efficiency thus become pure consumers, this is unavoidable due to all the production have been more or less centralized to a couple of international corporations

I have seen a rich family who owns a big enterprise, their children just take what ever job they like in the company, but they do not really contribute anything, just work for fun and take their salary. This is another kind of pure consumer
4996  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoins Can Inflate Too - Stop worrying about deflation. on: December 11, 2012, 10:56:06 PM
I think those zeros will become a headache for daily use, by that time people will start to use satoshi instead
4997  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin major fail - doesn't allow credit creation (aka deflationary currency) on: December 11, 2012, 10:51:37 PM
No one, not even the miners, can generate new bitcoins beyond the limits of the protocol.  FRB is not possible using actual bitcoins.

If FRB = Fractional Reserve Banking then you're wrong, it's perfectly possible to do it with bitcoins, as it was possible to do it with gold.


We are talking about two different things, I think.  FRB with gold was different than modern FRB.  With gold, the bank would usually be lending by offering a promisary note or a warehouse receipt based upon gold that was kept in the bank.  It was really just faith in that bank that they could actually perform should the deal go sour, not really that there was that much gold available.  While it's possible for a bitcoin bank to do something similar, the network (which the bitcoin economy is dependent upon) will not accept promises or warehouse receipts, only actual bitcoins.  If a bitcoin bank were to sell CD based upon the idea that those bitcoins would be lent back out, yes FRB would work, but that would be more like the free banking era after the Civil War, not the modern version of FRB.  Yet, such a bank would have to be open and honest about such a thing, and keep whatever on-demand accounts that it maintained completely seperate from those lending funds, or a run would eventually destroy them.  Such things happened on a regular basis during the free banking era, as bank owners got to greedy and too confident that customers wouldn't ever lose faith.  If a bank were to offer bitcoin bonds, and then lend those funds out in loans, the honesty of the pattern might just permit things to work.  Practically, however, modern banks don't work this way.  A modern verison of a bank actually gets it's 10% reserve requirement from savings accounts of all kinds, and then lends out funds that have never existed to 9 times that original deposit amount.  It's the implicit backing of the central banking (and thus taxpayers) that permit such an activity.

True! I almost forgot that I can always check the blockchain for my account balance, so that banks won't be able to move that fund

The blockchain based banking do not allow FRB
4998  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin major fail - doesn't allow credit creation (aka deflationary currency) on: December 11, 2012, 10:20:19 PM
BTC bank's income will mostly come from tranaction fee, loan (the bank's main business today) is basically not working with BTC.

No credit creation is happening since the money supply increase is always slower than the expanding of the economy

4999  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoins Can Inflate Too - Stop worrying about deflation. on: December 11, 2012, 10:09:46 PM


Lets pretend for a moment that banks (and their insurance companies) settle on 10% reserve.  So The banks can loan out some of their deposits, but have to keep at least 10% of all deposits in actual bitcoins.

Given your example the bank has 11 actual bitcoins and 16 bitcoins worth of deposits.

So the bank loans out another 9 bitcoins to Dave.
Now we have 11 coins in bank and 25 bitcoins worth of deposits.

Then the bank loans out 6 coins to Edward.
Now 11 coins in bank and 31 worth of deposits.

This process can continue until there are a total of 110 bitcoins worth of deposits.
So magically, 11 "real" bitcoins becomes 110 bitcoins worth of spending power in the economy.

This is an accounting fraud, it is only 110 BTC on the bank's deposit record, at any time the spending power in the whole economy will never exceed 11 BTC, since that is all the BTC existed

Transactions between people or businesses that use the same bank don't even go through the blockchain.  The bank just adjusts the necessary deposit account info accordingly.
...
Why will people use banks instead of just keeping their own secure wallets?  A variety of reasons.  Perhaps they trust the bank to do a better job of securing the bitcoins than they believe they can do themselves?  Perhaps the banks offer to pay a small interest rate on deposits? Perhaps the banks provide a convenience for engaging in bitcoin based transactions in the physical world (debit cards, checks, etc)  Perhaps the banks offer reduced transaction fees (bank only has to pay blockchain transaction fees on a 10BT transaction instead of thousands of transactions valued at over 2 million BTC)?

Very true, these are some of the benefits of having a bank. But in BTC's case, things are different: Not so many people will take loan from a BTC bank, since the loan interest is just too high when no real world projects can have higher ROI than BTC itself. And without loan, banks can not make a living, or they simply become an asset management business
5000  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin major fail - doesn't allow credit creation (aka deflationary currency) on: December 10, 2012, 02:41:20 PM
No one, not even the miners, can generate new bitcoins beyond the limits of the protocol.  FRB is not possible using actual bitcoins.

If FRB = Fractional Reserve Banking then you're wrong, it's perfectly possible to do it with bitcoins, as it was possible to do it with gold.
The only thing that the protocol limits is the monetary base. Higher aggregates can exist.

That said, the concept of a "central issuer" inflating the monetary base to save the banks that took too much risk cannot exist with bitcoins directly, as with gold.


Right on the spot.

The problem with a BTC loan is its unstable (and more likely continuously rising) price

If I borrow 10 BTC from a BTC bank one year ago, it would only cost me $20, but if the loan is 1 year, now I have to pay back $130, that is a 550% interest, no one will take this kind of loan. From this point of view, the OP's claim regarding BTC does not allow credit creation is actually correct

In a rich society with excessive production power, no investment is very attractive and people will try to find a way to protect their savings due to central banks are continuously inflating the main currency to stimulate investment, then BTC is a promising vehicle
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