Or, the not so funny one, an S19 is making you 8$ a day, as in 30 minutes of flipping hamburgers on minimum wage at McD.
An S19 makes you 1$ at 6 cents/Kwh, remember when it first hit the market and people were buying it for half a bitcoin? ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) Probably, it seems like it's slightly deflating even now, but still, a lot of mining companies are going to have some long meetings full of silence today!
Well profit is down 24% it makes perfect sense for diff to start slowing down at least, current numbers are Latest Block: 780164 (8 minutes ago) Current Pace: 101.2055% (1989 / 1965.31 expected, 23.69 ahead) Previous Difficulty: 39156400059293.19 Current Difficulty: 43053844193928.45 Next Difficulty: between 43586727751245 and 43586824534449 Next Difficulty Change: between +1.2377% and +1.2379% Previous Retarget: February 25, 2023 at 3:27 AM (+9.9535%) Next Retarget (earliest): Today at 11:27 PM (in 0d 4h 26m 47s) Next Retarget (latest): Today at 11:27 PM (in 0d 4h 26m 49s) Projected Epoch Length: between 13d 19h 59m 52s and 13d 19h 59m 54s Not much time left to make any considerable changes in the retarget, so 1.15% or anything pretty close to that. +1% is a meh. -20% in price is an ugh. Next jump will be of interest. I wonder if we full on drop. I think not much unless we get a full two weeks at 15-17k levels. if a 30 watt s19 j pro makes $1.50 at six cent power it has not quite bottomed out on the mining end.
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yeah viabtc is at 5.96 cents a th
a s19j pro earns 5.96
burns 75 kwatts
10 cents = $7.50 loser 09 cents = $6.75 loser 08 cents = $6.00 loser 07 cents = $5.25 $0.71 profit 06 cents = $4.50 $1.46 profit this is the key we almost never get to zero profit at this number 05 cents = $3.75 $2.21 profit
What really interests me is LTC+DOGE L7 miner has been a godlike earner for 2+ years it is tanking bigly for daily profit
If you had 10 L7 miners purchased Jan 2021 they carried you for 2 years
So a guy with 10 L7 miners and 50 s17's is now in trouble.
and
2023 FOMC Meetings March. 21-22* >>>>>>>> maybe we go up 0.50 to 5.07% May. 2-3. June. 13-14* July. 25-26. September. 19-20* Oct/Nov. 31-1. December. 12-13*
Some say we hit 6% before we see cuts
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It's pretty simple, Ordinals is an abuse of the system and abuse has to be prevented to ensure the systems survival. Every tool or a system is created for a clear purpose and when you use it for anything else, that is abuse. Nonsense. Ordinals is an unforeseen use of the system, just as open timestamps is. Neither has to be prevented to ensure bitcoin's survival. Due to the eventually disappearing block subsidy, bitcoin's long term survival is dependent on full blocks creating a fee market, so one clear purpose of bitcoin is to support all uses which help to fill blocks. A nice practical thought for blockchain use over purity blockchain use thought.. Miners are practical and already have more than enough gear to do weird shit to algos. In general they simply are looking to turn profit. Which is why there are multiple algos to mine. Not just one.
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Are you being serious right now? The Bitcoin developers are not some kind of 'evil corporation' who we need to 'teach lessons' by threatening to destroy 'their product'; you don't seem to grasp this is an open-source project, where we as the users already have the power, especially through the decentralized nature of nodes as seen in UASF. We are all Bitcoin, there is no 'us against them'. We should aim to get the best outcome for it together and not by fighting each other or threatening Bitcoin's destruction. most of what you are saying there is your opinion. but lets talk facts. none of the developers anticipated ordinals. enough said. I already said to use multiple backups. Do note that if you use the blockchain as your single backup, it will be a single point of failure, as well.
not in the same way that pcloud is a single point of failure though. for the bitcoin blockchain to go away, it would almost require the internet to go away. if that happened, what good would your data be anyway? ![Shocked](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/shocked.gif) I care about $ per watt no more no less
so kill off fees for BTC and keep doing the ½'s and it will be in trouble under 40 years.
so you're saying satoshi didn't design bitcoin properly because this halving thing doesn't work? i still have yet to hear a reasonable explanation for why the block reward needs to be halved every 4 years or however often it is...unless bitcoin goes up in price to counteract the halving then miner income is in jeopardy unless transaction fees can pick up the slack which won't happen unless new use cases open up like this ordinals. is that what you were thinking? Well you are close. BTC was desperate to scale. Tried a few ideas and while LN does scale it cuts fees. LTC+Doge came up with two problems solved. Scaling due to much faster blocks for both Coins and secondly the the ½ issue is blended by having one coin do a ½ ing and one coin not half. I have proposed slower block times and ½ ings for btc most don’t see this as a good idea. Make the 2024 ½ happen then stretch the 2028 to 2030. we would be able to do this by changing from one block in 10 minutes to 1 block in 15 minutes. Same 21million coins just spread longer. Most people do not understand the issue of fees being too small that miners will say fuck it and switch to other algos. well the value of these coins are based on power burned = wealth created. As a guy with a lot of solar power burning and mining. I want a coin that makes $$ per watt. part of my long plan is wait for a downturn in Scrypt which will allow me to have equal gear in btc,ltc/doge,gpus I have enough btc asics and enough gpus but am just a bit short of scrypt asics. I routinely switch algos if it pays to do so. It is tough but btc needs to get it grew like mad due to ½ ing speed but with maturity slowing the ½ will keep miners mining it. 2024. 3.125 2028. 1.5625. or 2030 1.5625 2032. 0.78125. or 2036 0.78125 2036 0.390625 or 2042 0.390625 2040. 0.1953125 or 2048 0.1953125 2044. 0.097656 or 2054 0.097656 the 6 year ½ will help miners stick with btc and not shift to scrypt To me I think NFTs and Ordinals could help Btc stay attractive to miners.
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so buddy will be serving more dip.
19.7 soon
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Let me ask you about the jan 2021 to april 2021 fee pattern.
We were talking about adoption and it can not be analyzed in such a tiny window. But since you asked you are ignoring a couple of things. First of all hashrate has been rising even when the fees were low. So making arguments trying to say miners are only here for the fees is just dumb. Secondly the fees in the window you chose were rising (and falling) because we had the most volatile market in that window. Price went from trying to break $42k+ in Jan to crashing down to $28k and then rise back up to ATH at $65k in April. Obviously with such huge price swings comes loads of more transactions hence higher fees. You are also ignoring the fact that afterwards fees came down back to 1 sat/vb and hashrate continued growing by a lot despite the price coming down too! scrypt will flourish since doge does not half. mining will slide to Ltc/Doge if fees continue the way they are.
You are forgetting that SHA256-ASIC and Scrypt-ASIC are different and you can't use one for the other. In simple terms bitcoin's hashrate can not "slide" to shitcoins like LTC and Doge. If we go with your logic the hashrate should slide into another SHA256 coin! do you mine most likely not. I have tremendously cheap power. But not infinite amounts of it. So If I have 100000 watts of power and I have 100000 watts of paid scrypt asics 100000 watts of paid sha asics 100000 watts of paid gpus I care about $ per watt no more no less so kill off fees for BTC and keep doing the ½'s and it will be in trouble under 40 years. since Scrypt = a non ½ ing coin doge and a ½ ing coin LTC it will never run out of reward coins for miners. If you think I am the only guy with 3 types of paid off gear and 0 debt with the option to pick what I want to mine you are wrong. I am simply pointing out: Crypto was based on power makes wealth not my idea it was satoshi's I only wish I were 25-30 and planing for my retirement at 55-60 vs 66. This plays out so simple get dirt cheap power = yes get 3-4 types of paid off miners = yes switch to best algo to mine = yes Now BTC has a shot to fix the issue with NFTs and ordinals and guess what shortsighted people don't see what I see. Damn I wish I could live long time like 106 just to see me be right. Meanwhile I do 3 separate algos and shift around to match my cheap power. when I buy I do buy BTC as I hope the NFT+Ordinal world saves btc.
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Yeah get your bargain dip and hodl.
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Plan is still working got some 20.5k corn today and some 21.5k corn yesterday.
Looking to see <20 soon
buddy likes the lack of competition and is running wild on the low side.
be ready for some 19.6k dip.
Even with terrible price of 20.3k and only 6.06 cents a th for a btc miner
the difficulty is still moving up.
this is a big squeeze on miners.
Mt Gox releasing 130k coins
and feds due to raise rates means huge downward pressure on corn.
Get some dip and hodl
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philipma1957 seems to be getting a solar mining operation ready with a few friends. Why don't you message him for advice?
We have a 265kwatt solar array in operation. It is grid tied and provides about 55kwatts per hour 24/7/365 due to net metering with the power company.
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As opposed to arbitrary payment data that is pushed to the blockchain once to stay there forever?
I don't know how to respond to that!!! You are bringing up the main reason why bitcoin was created (payment) and you argue that it could be considered arbitrary too which makes no sense otherwise why do we even bother with bitcoin in first place. lol Maybe you haven't, but many others had, and no, people using bitcoin for payment have not been increasing, it's actually the opposite, there were more transactions in 2016 and 2017 than were in the last 3 years, take a look at the transaction count, to be very generous and not call this a downtrend, it's flat at best.
You are making a wrong conclusion based on false data. In 2017 bitcoin was experiencing the biggest spam attack of its entire history (biggest until today too). The number of transactions then can not your baseline. In reality if you check the stats rarely released by payment processors, check out number of merchants that are accepting bitcoin each year, countries adopting bitcoin as legal currency, legal tender, reserve currency, for international trade and a lot more you can clearly see that usage of bitcoin as a currency has been increasing by a lot. Do you know what is actually in an uptrend? it's the number of BTC going out of circulation buried in the "hodlers" wallets for god knows how long, if you were to check the average block size for the past 3 years, it would be closer to 50% than to a 100%, there are days where blocks barely had any transactions, the worldwide percentage of people using bitcoin to transact rounded to the nearest whole number is exactly zero, and it will only get worse over time, the more valuable BTC become the less people will transact it.
Lets fact check your assumption. 3675 blocks had "barely any transactions" and a small size between 2015-01-01 and 2017-03-09 (a rough 2 year window). 632 blocks had "barely any transactions" and a small size between 2021-01-01 and 2023-03-09 (a rough 2 year window). That's an 82% reduction! I intentionally chose 2015 to 2017 because the end date is approximately when the spam attack gets worse and also the huge bull run and the bubble has not yet started. The window from 2017 to 2019 isn't that better though (~1400 ie. ~55% reduction) which proves my point about increasing adoption as a payment network. Someone could make the same argument about someone else making a transaction for a cup of coffee, a few sats worth a transaction that is going to sit on thousands of hard drives forever, it's pretty difficult to define what is useless and what's not.
No. You can't even begin to compare using bitcoin for payment (whether for a cup of coffee or a house) and using bitcoin as a cloud storage. They do add value to the users who want to own those sats that point to something of value to them, furthermore, they add value for miners to extract as fees.
Miners are already "extracting fees" they don't need Ordinals for that unless you mean spam attacks like 2017 which artificially inflate the fee is a "good thing"! but I would not mind sucking all the value from all those altcoins into BTC, if that's what the people want -- why not?
If that's what you want then there is a much simpler way without filling bitcoin with garbage and making it unusable which is to use a side-chain. There is already a couple of projects out there like RootStock that actually create real smart contracts and transfer actual tokens around instead of the fake thing in Ordinals that has no value. Let me ask you about the jan 2021 to april 2021 fee pattern. and by that before china killed off the bull run by 1/2ing the bull run. fees were very high and miners were whaling . then the hash crash came along with better LN coverage and fees have yet to recover. Mark my words if ordinal and nft fade and fees don’t rise. scrypt will flourish since doge does not half. mining will slide to Ltc/Doge if fees continue the way they are. I wish I was 25-35 it would be easy move to play. As this will al unfold in the years around 2056.
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I agree; that's why I also oppose NFT experiments on the 'world's reserve currency' mainnet chain.. I don't see any experiments. What is currently happening was always possible on a protocol level. People have saved texts, messages, PDFs likewise. Colored coins had no data embedded into them. But they do make use of OP_RETURN, which is metadata. actual (i.e. Ethereum based) NFTs already have a bad reputation for being the ultimate cryptocurrency scam, so I don't see how this trend won't just burn itself out pretty quick
Greater fool's theory. Some poor guy will acquire the "rarest" satoshis, but with little to zero value because nobody will buy that nonsense later on. yeah like no one wants andy warhol campbell soup limited prints art is nuts always has been nuts. like it or not nft art is here to say. here is one for over $500 https://www.ebay.com/itm/Andy-Warhol-Print-Campbell-s-Soup-I-Hand-Signed-COA/185787927773?Most do not see the value of nft on the btc block chain. I do as they mean more fees. More fees mean more miners and more hardware = vital energy for btc. I can tell you mining scrypt with a LTC-Doge machine will appeal to more miners than btc. Unless NFTS can keep fees more reasonable in the higher number sense. Frankly we used to get lots of 1 ,2 3, even 4 coins in fees. when has anyone seen that for a btc block a year or maybe 2 years.
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yeah I got a bargain 90th s19 and 1 board be dead in under 2 weeks.
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Philip isn't here Mighty streak of rebellion ChartBuddy calm down
#haiku
waiting for 20k dip to set up. I got a dca and a 21k dip buy today.
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There goes 22.. Sigh....
finally more dip plan worked. and it is my dca day nice. 2x fiat of dca 4x fiat of dip
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lets see 6400 usd plus 33% tax = 9600 or more like 0.4 btc 0.00000287 x 141 = 0.00040467 btc a day. lets argue that diff goes 2x over 1000 days. so 0.00020233 by day 1000
average may be 0.0003 btc a day so .4/0.0003 = 1333 days or more with free power.
pretty amazing.
I think you forgot to add the halving to the equation, just so we don't re-do the math, let's take the last part, 1333 days - 400 (till halving for simple math) so 933 days will be post-halving, I would say 2000 days or anywhere between 5 to 6 years assuming it doesn't die or lose any hashboard in the process, to me, that's more like 'never'. You can buy other gears that are less efficient, and still hit ROI faster despite the power rate, I am sure many folks don't run the math and they will be more than happy to pay 0.4 BTC for this miner. yeah forgot it. the ½ ing is in 400 days so it will be longer. Than 1333 days
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nobody really cares about a few bitcoin mining companies going broke, it's just a few tens million
I think it's more like hundreds if not thousands of millions at stake already, but you are right, in the grand scheme of things, the whole mining business is just a drop in the ocean. ROI is more like never, at least as far as BTC roi is concerned, I can tell you that this miner will never make 0.3 BTC during its lifetime, it's more likely to get hit by a lightning strike than make 0.3 BTC. lets see 6400 usd plus 33% tax = 9600 or more like 0.4 btc 0.00000287 x 141 = 0.00040467 btc a day. lets argue that diff goes 2x over 1000 days. so 0.00020233 by day 1000 average may be 0.0003 btc a day so .4/0.0003 = 1333 days or more with free power. pretty amazing.
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https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimatorLatest Block: 779751 (7 minutes ago) Current Pace: 103.5311% (1576 / 1522.25 expected, 53.75 ahead) Previous Difficulty: 39156400059293.19 Current Difficulty: 43053844193928.45 Next Difficulty: between 44516794734490 and 44592582851011 Next Difficulty Change: between +3.3980% and +3.5740% Previous Retarget: February 24, 2023 at 8:27 PM (+9.9535%) Next Retarget (earliest): Friday at 9:00 AM (in 2d 22h 49m 55s) Next Retarget (latest): Friday at 9:33 AM (in 2d 23h 22m 40s) Projected Epoch Length: between 13d 12h 32m 24s and 13d 13h 5m 9s Copy stats to clipboard well right now we are at 6.58 cents a th at viabtc those are brutal numbers jump 3.5% in diff we drop closer to 6 cents a th USA fed rates will likely jump .25% three times in a row. all downward pressure on crypto and mt gox is supposedly releasing 132k coins over a six month time period. more downward price pressure the coins in mt gox are like 300 to 1300 cost basis. Ie you paid 300 to 1300 each so selling a 300 dollar coin for 21k sound really fucking good to me. I have to think this will drop price under 20k So maybe we see viabtc at under six cents a th. very soon. so at 5 cents a th a s19 pro set to 80th on low pulls 2000 watts or 50kwatts and 5 x 80 = 4 bucks earned 10 cent power costs 5 bucks loss of 1 dollar 9 cent power cost 4.5 loss of 50 cents 8 cent power cost. 4.0 break even 7 cent power cost 3.5 make 50 cents with zero maintain of gear or salary 6 cent power cost 3 make 1 dollar 5 cent power cost 2.5 makes 1.5 dollars 4 cent 2 makes 2 dollars you may be able to make more set to high power 100 x 5 = 5 bucks 75 x 4 = 3 bucks 2 dollar profit we are not far from the above happening. It would dictate diff dropping 20% since s19s would be set to low unless power was at under 4 cents.
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buddy is done for monday. and so am i. nite all.
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