these numbers say tourism represents 5.1% or 5.8% of GDP depending on how it's calculated, so it's nothing to sneeze at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Costa_Rica#Tourism

a 5%+ annualized GDP contraction would be brutal. that's hundreds of thousands of jobs evaporated, plus hundreds of thousands more that are indirectly supported by tourism.

the losses may also be disproportionately distributed, badly affecting tourist locales while leaving manufacturing and agricultural areas mostly unaffected. this could factor into the decision too.

2008 brought lots of market consolidation---USA giants like washington mutual, merrill lynch, and bear stearns were absorbed by the biggest banks, jpmorgan chase and bank of america. if a crisis hits, they'll get TARP-like bailouts while acquiring failing banks IMO, further consolidating the industry.

citibank actually did get partially nationalized after that crisis. i assume the government will sell their stake ASAP (like they did with citi in 2010) but i guess things could play out differently if the banks don't return to profitability.

closed source or not, i don't know if i buy the argument that exchanges should be liable for forks. they agree to hold custody of your BTC. the paramount concern should be secure custody of the deposited currency. there could be literally millions of shitcoin forks and airdrops---are they responsible for every one? where does it end, and what if there is no replay protection for a given fork?

if the plaintiff won in this case, it would set a chilling precedent where exchanges would have to start weighing the risks of customer lawsuits for not recovering forks against the risks of compromising their wallet security protocols. as someone who uses centralized exchanges, i would strongly prefer they err on the side of security and caution, rather than on the side of awarding everybody their shitcoin forks. anyone concerned about forks and airdrops is fully capable of requesting a withdrawal, and IIRC coinbase reminded users to do so before the BCH and BTG hard forks.

i'm not gonna get my hopes up, but i would love to see this. i used to love buying pieces of MTT players and was staked on and off for sunday tourneys myself years ago. having an automated way to do it in-lobby would IMO result in instantly better MTT liquidity. i'd love to see this on a USA-facing/crypto site and i'd definitely contribute liquidity to it.


+1.

lol, so you like to "hit and run"---not the best etiquette at a cash game table.

why do you quit? because you're afraid you'll just give the money back?

if the game is good (profitable) and i'm playing well, then i stay in, period. a deeper stack in a fishy game should only make things more profitable.

zoom/rush is a really specific type of game. rush SNGs used to be my bread and butter in the pre-UIGEA days, so i absolutely know what you mean. and in that context, i agree to some extent. normal tourneys or cash games play quite a bit differently, and you can spend many, many orbits playing the same players, so it really pays off to observe your opponents---note preflop play %, whether they chase/bet draws, show down bluffs, etc.

even in zoom/rush, hand reading is still relevant. you still need to determine your opponents' ranges on each hand and act accordingly. a lot of players are playing an ABC game and will play hands like top pair and flush draws in typical, readable ways.


it's not just about the TV factor. it's also because at higher stakes and skill levels, one needs to remain unpredictable. if you play a very ABC game, good players will recognize it and bluff you off key spots.

i agree---not necessarily for beginners, but neither are higher stakes.

congrats on taking it down, @Betwrong! i was rooting for you!


yeah AQ was a welcome sight when i went out. i didn't really expect @bitmutiny to call my jam for more than half his stack with anything but QQ+/AQ+ given the dynamic at the time---didn't think he wanted to flip---but to my surprise, JJ. i am on a very long run of losing important flips, hope it turns around soon!


because @efi sent us the password and it was allowed?


lol. what was the final hand? i missed it....

maybe so, but the advantages are sorta overstated. if you'll recall, bookmaker odds were heavily in favor of hillary in 2016 (IIRC betfair was around 75%), not so different from the polls.

punters are better informed then the average person surveyed in a political poll---i'll give it that. but if you see odds suggesting a 60% or 70% likely outcome, it's still pretty damn unpredictable. even if we assume they are pricing the odds 100% correctly, that's 3-4 out of every 10 they will be wrong.

do you have any idea how many 60/40 flips i lose at the poker table?

the runner's up tourney finished pretty quickly. very solid play from @jayce who took 3rd.

@Iv4n came in heads up with a strong chip lead. we skirmished for a while but i never made too much of a dent. i 3-bet jammed KQo into him, ran into AKo of course. no suckouts today. gg dude!

things are going terribly in the other game---super card dead for the past hour straight. i should have been paying more attention and chosen some spots to steal but i've been on autopilot, i have a lot going on in the house right now..... let's see if i can't turn this around.

just mind the difference when you make your draft list. non-ppr = no points awarded for receptions. WRs take a hit, RBs have more value early on (except maybe scat backs who mostly catch passes---they are more valuable in PPR), etc. as far as receiving stats go, yards and touchdowns matter, that's it.

so is Hueristic running this then?

i'm in both games. sue me.


yup, some nasty coolers so far!

i have unfortunately gotten no action on my monsters today. i had AA twice but no callers preflop. still only hovering near the starting stack, but there's still plenty of time to make something happen......

my understanding is there is a ~6 month grace period to complete KYC. after that february 2021 deadline, KYC is officially mandatory and unverified accounts will have trading/withdrawal privileges revoked.


bitmex and binance were both built on mass commission-based referral campaigns on crypto twitter during the 2017 bubble. another platform could rise to prominence the exact same way when bitmex goes full KYC, because they will create a vacuum in the space IMO.

influencers on crypto twitter have a big interest in that too---they will make huge profits from referrals by advertising a new, growing site. combine that with another bubble like 2017 and i think bitmex could be replaced fairly easily.

sounds like this may not happen? i don't wanna manage the league, but i'm still in.


i'm good with 0.003-0.005 BTC too. non ppr is fine. i'm good with yahoo or ESPN.

the only thing i'm worried about is making the live draft. my schedule is kinda wonky lately. i don't mind handicapping myself with an auto-draft, but not sure if this is possible in a live draft league?

some of the best players are quite loose aggressive (LAG) and are not picky in their hand selection. they can succeed this way because they know how to leverage their table position, and because they are good at reading their opponents---sensing when they can bluff them off a hand.


especially in a tournament. tournaments (especially ones with a large field) are much higher variance than cash games. that's why cash game players often hate tourneys---they take hours to finish a single one, and it takes hundreds or thousands to generate a good sample of your performance.

even after 3 bitcointalk series, i don't think we have the greatest idea of who the best players are yet. variance is a bitch, and it takes a big sample to even out.

all i know is, the drama you've stirred up has really fucked up our private bitcointalk series. a bunch of our players can no longer chat at the tables anymore because of the 500 krill requirement. implementing something like this without any kind of whitelisting feature leaves a really bad taste in one's mouth. it's pretty annoying that you guys let some trollbox drama turn into this, not to mention de facto chat banning all new players to the site. what a shitshow!

people will, for the same reason coinbase can charge drastically higher trading fees than everyone else. they have a highly trusted brand and a model that normies can wrap their head around.

celsius is custodial but also can't keep most deposited coins in cold storage. not only that, but unlike coinbase, their hot wallets are not insured.

so not only is there the branding/trust issue, but your coins are theoretically more secure in coinbase's custody. it shouldn't come as a surprise that you need to pay a premium to borrow there.

you do realize that bitcoin was widely hailed as a pump and dump in 2011 and 2013, right? and that the 2017 bubble on the charts is more of the same? people still call it tulip mania.

years ago, before defi, before IEOs, before ICOs, bitcoin security investments (havelock, asicminers, etc) were all the rage. hell, before that so were bitcoin doublers and ridiculous things like that. and still here we are, with bitcoin getting mainstream recognition from hedge fund managers and publicly traded companies holding their cash reserves in BTC, trading above $10k...... i see no damage done!

like it or not, many bitcoin investors are straight up gamblers looking to get rich quick, and they are gonna keep pouring their coins into high risk investments. that includes both legitimate and illegitimate projects, and everything in between. *shrug*

i love bitcoin, but it certainly shouldn't have a monopoly on innovation in the crypto space. when an investor gets burned (in altcoins or penny stocks or anything else) they learn a lesson and are wiser for it. the smart ones will learn that bitcoin is a much safer investment, and life goes on.

you really think bitmex can retain its volume and liquidity levels with mandatory KYC? i don't really believe that, especially given their perpetually sub-par trading engine performance. so many people already hate bitmex so much.

there's a very good reason why bitfinex and binance retain massive liquidity while also avoiding mandatory KYC at all costs. bitmex is not immune to that reality simply because they were the first mover in the crypto derivatives space. i'm very interested to see what comes of this.


bitmex never had to compete as a platform with mandatory KYC.

remember poloniex and bittrex in 2017? they were on top of the world during the first half of the year. then they announced mandatory KYC and their customer bases completely evaporated---and binance very quickly became the biggest altcoin exchange in the world.

+1, that's what i've been saying from the start! it's only a 10k chip prize pool---no need to be stingy about letting people in! this one is just for fun! @efi should definitely be playing with us.

i only wish the chat issue were sorted out.

see everyone tomorrow! i'm stoked to be playing in both the regular final and the 10k mega ultimate final.

+1. it's all noise. the only thing that matters in the end is what the market decides. my money is on bitcoin continuing to dominate the market for the foreseeable future, but i also think the maximalist hope that altcoins will die off is a pipe dream. altcoins aren't going anywhere, and they are gonna seriously piss off bitcoin maximalists during the next bull market.