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501  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: July 02, 2019, 10:14:02 PM
I think I see where the problem is - you are making assumptions using the wrong data to attempt to make your point. He is likely talking about other elected reversals much further back in a time series of the pricing move - not the most recent move. If you look at many of his past charts these elected reversals can be many months or even years apart.

I can't spend the time rummaging through all the data or blog posts - but I'd bet that's the case.

Proof:

SOCRATES Detailed Analysis
THE IMMEDIATE ANALYTICAL STANCE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Mon. Jun. 24, 2019:
...
This market on the weekly level has been making new highs since the last low established 4 weeks ago, which is a turn to the upside for now. We did elect four Bullish Reversals which implies we have had a broad change in trend on this level.
...

The last low is the last low. The statements in this report are false, because after that low, not a single published reversal was elected. Please read the original post:

The Smoking Gun



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain




502  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: July 02, 2019, 09:32:22 PM
...
it actually looks to me that the lack of electing a 4th bullish reversal is done so because his system (if memory serves me right) confirms an actual bullish reversal only after the fourth confirmed reversal.
...

You better check the facts. Not a single published Weekly Bullish Reversal was elected yet Armstrong claims in hindsight the election of three Weekly Bullish Reversals. Why do you post here if you don't have the data, and if you cannot count?


Nobody, not even Martin Armstrong has the missing Reversals otherwise they would have posted them here long ago.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain


503  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: July 02, 2019, 06:42:05 PM
...
In many ways putting Socrates online and giving the level of access to data will actually be a detriment to MA and Socrates (if not downfall). More people will trade based on the 'concrete' numbers and commentary... Find it quantitatively lacking and then (hopefully) walk away because now it's clearly measurable. Either it works or it doesn't and he's opened up the platform for everyone to evaluate that in more detail than before...

Of course... He'll probably keep the scores of people who buy into his perspective and showboating but I'd expect any genuine trader who analyses their trades will find Socrates lacking value.


You hit the nail on the head. I wrote about this before here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51542437#msg51542437

Doomed.

The only reason why anyone ever wanted his computer or source code, and why anyone in the future would ever want his computer or source code, is to prove that fraud that I am describing, not so much because of the actual value of the forecasting.

Now I have proven fraud without access to the computer programs, just by inspecting the output alone. The best Armstrong can do now is to immediately shut down the service, and destroy the source code.

Because the cat is out of the bag.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain
504  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: July 02, 2019, 06:26:37 PM
...
So it would seem they don't keep a database of elected reversals. I don't think it would be wise to speculate if armstrong is a fraud based on this response, because I want to make that assertion based on the actual reversal data.
...

I am addressing one thing at the time, because as we know the issue is complex.

If, as you are suggesting, you had all the reversals for a single market e.g. DJI, then, even if you wanted to, you would not be able to detect fraud. Because even if each and all the reversals would result in trading losses, so what? You trade on your own risk, and I think that Martin Armstrong is perhaps well covered legally here.

If however you can prove that Martin Armstrong has in his code a back door that lets him claim trading success i.e. gain where in fact the trade was a loss, or where Socrates has failed to provide a signal that would have provided you with a gain as claimed, then you have a case.

This case you cannot find with a spreadsheet of all the reversals because it is the reversals that are missing that is the problem.

However, all you need is to point to this URL:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

This is the proof, this is the case I am talking about. I have made it very easy to see for everybody, because not only is this claim in the report somewhere, no, Martin Armstrong actually reads it out on his blog.

I could not have made it any easier, and you save yourself tons of work. Therefore, I am not going to send you any data. I just don't want that this crisp and clear message is diluted by any side issues that you may find doing your own research.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain
505  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: July 02, 2019, 05:09:25 PM
...
Therefore I need to trade my system first and see if he turns out right... If I need to do that and can't trade with confidence in his calls... Then where's the value? If he's right consistently you can incorporate that into your trading - if not - then it only serves as a distraction.
...

I agree with you 100%. Nobody really talks about the inefficiency of the Socrates system and what impact this has on trading success. It takes years to master it according to statements made by support staff. And my work to disentangle the system to finally prove beyond any doubt that it is a fraud also took years.

To react in real time and have the data ready to go for this case:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51666429#msg51666429

That is not something that the average user of the system can do. You need to be prepared for that.


Then if you want to use it in your trading activities, the research you need to perform every day takes so much time that by the time you are finished, the opportunity is already gone. This complicated reversal system is really a legacy from the time where it would have been advantageous because the reversals are available ahead of time in batches and can be sold with reports. Nowadays, immediacy is required, and the reversal system is doomed to fail.

Taking this legacy system online on the web is a bad joke. To make this clear, a minimum requirement would be a stock scanner scanning more than just 1,000 symbols, and the ability to analyze any security dynamically. Meaning to analyze a stock that Socrates has never seen before.

Look at the type of people lurking around here looking for answers. These people have nothing to do all day and will perhaps not even trade.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain
506  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: July 02, 2019, 10:29:13 AM
...
I'd like to separate Soc from MA in this context.
...

We really can't separate Martin Armstrong from Socrates because they are the same thing as he said here:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ai-computers/the-most-valuable-lesson-we-can-teach-our-children-is-how-to-think-not-what-to-think/

I am always still improving Socrates. As I said, it is my clone. Every trick of the trade I have learned I taught the system and I and always still learning so I had to write the code to allow Socrates to also learn as I have throughout life.

Sorry. Rev Martin Armstrong has spoken. Not my words.

Meanwhile, his epic statement neatly explains why Socrates is lying in the same style as Martin Armstrong does Cry:

The Smoking Gun



Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain
507  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: July 02, 2019, 04:36:47 AM

It appears that even his famous one about the 1987 crash was hindsight not a forecast:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg13594110#msg13594110

I would love to see that under the microscope (time line with sources).

Michael Campbell (https://mikesmoneytalks.ca) is on tape confirming Armstrong called him personally in 1989 on the day of the Nikkei high, to advise that was the high and that it would fall, never to return to those numbers again in his lifetime.

at 21mins - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a5lG0-hjkrA

Do you believe him?


No. That would be religuous. In this space where people present single observations based on opinion without any statistical value as facts, it would be foolish to believe anyone. Do you believe that The Forecaster movie is anything other than what is widely seen as a name clearing platform, orchestrated by Armstrong himself?

I acknowledge facts only. There needs to be evidence that the record was produced to a large audience when the prediction was made, before the event, not after it. Very simple. Check the Wikipedia entry for Martin Armstrong and you get a fairly good picture. If you follow the Wikipedia sources about the 1987 crash forecast, you will see that even Wikipedia is not correct. The so-called forecast was after the event. Accurracy is very important here. Some time in the future perhaps someone will set the record straight. I have seen that over time, Wikipedia entries become more accurate, more specific, more nuanced because people add their wisdom.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain
508  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: July 01, 2019, 06:02:28 PM
Do you mind giving me the number for the bearish reversal that was elected?

Sorry to step in but I think since I have the numbers ...

Not aware of a DJI weekly bearish but would not be surprised if there was one.

However:

SP500 Weekly Bearish: 284862, Date Elected: 2019-05-24, Future Date (1 period): 2019-05-31, Future close 275206, GAIN: 2.6%

So you get a profit if you trade one week. I am too lazy to check the 3 week result. Perhaps a loss.

olegrey, this is what I am saying, as long as the system does not say what the trading period is 1, 2, or 3 weeks, a reversal is actually worthless.

Keep researching Roll Eyes Perhaps in a few years, you will come to the same conclusion that I have.

Tip: Study data science. Is quicker.


You could be right and the trading pattern of 1, 2, or 3 weeks could be completely random after the election of the reversal, but I need to see it for myself. There was some mild success from our feasibility study, so would you be willing to share your cache of thousands of reversals so that I can conduct a comprehensive study? If you are right, and the election of a reversals leads to a random 1, 2, or 3 week success, I will agree that the reversals are completely worthless, but I need to see for myself. I'm sure all the martin doubters here are intelligent and trustworthy people, but a flaw of mine is I've always needed to investigate for myself and not talking the word of people who are probably smarter than I am. I will send you my throwaway email in a private message. I will keep all the data private if you request. If you are right and martin is a complete fraud, help me see the light by allowing me to investigate his reversals and not just on the word of mouth from the people on this board.

See Socrates Customer Support, say you are from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and request reversal history of the last 2 years monthly, weekly, daily.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain
509  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: July 01, 2019, 03:49:59 AM

The Smoking Gun

Socrates Weekly Reversal System fails, misses important Rally. Still Armstrong claims Success.


In the Private Blog https://www.ask-socrates.com/Blog/Article/5d11792c1dd9531ae8f54b67 Martin Armstrong claims:

Gold & the Rally to $1432
Tuesday, 25 June 2019
By: Marty Armstrong
...
We have so far elected three Weekly Bullish Reversals from the last low ...
...

and in the report:

SOCRATES Detailed Analysis
THE IMMEDIATE ANALYTICAL STANCE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Mon. Jun. 24, 2019:
...
This market on the weekly level has been making new highs since the last low established 4 weeks ago, which is a turn to the upside for now. We did elect four Bullish Reversals which implies we have had a broad change in trend on this level.
...


So let us check when these four Weekly Bullish Reversals were elected:

From some time before the last low, generously counting, we move forward in time and track:

Closest Weekly published Bullish Reversals:

Date - - - - - Close Reversal - Comment
2019-05-10 128740 132590 - Reversal too high to elect
2019-05-17 127570 131480 - Reversal too high to elect
2019-05-24 128360 129100 - Reversal too high to elect
2019-05-31 131110 131480 - Reversal too high to elect
2019-06-07 134610 136270 - Reversal too high to elect
2019-06-14 134450 134990 - Reversal too high to elect
2019-06-21 140010 144370 - Reversal too high to elect

This is evidence that not a single published Weekly Bullish Reversal was elected during this seven week rally. Unfortunately, Socrates pushed the Reversals higher and higher, out of reach.

The three reversals he claims in the blog, and the four reversals in the report are fake phantom reversals that cannot be traded because nobody can see them in time. They are created in hindsight, after the fact.

With this, we now have evidence that the use of phantom fake reversals, the claim of their election, is systemic fraud. The user is shown a track record of multiple profitable buy signals (election of Bullish Reversals following a positive trend) where in fact the system failed every time to create them.

These "Reversals" are generated and counted in hindsight, as designed, intentionally, coded by a computer programmer.

We also call them Revision Signals

https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com/2019/07/revision-signals.html

This is very important because the system does not provide any other history that shows its performance record.

Socrates is designed to lie about its forecasting performance.

To remove any doubt about the author of these false claims, we quote Martin Armstrong himself who writes at

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/att-the-biggest-traitor-to-the-american-people/

The coding of the actual AI trading and structure of analysis is done ONLY by myself.

He also claims at

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/products_services/socrates/socrates-project-update-new-versions-beginning-this-week/

that his computer software, named Socrates, is a clone of himself. So clearly this is a computer code equivalent of one of his behavioral defects.


See also:

"Fake Daily Reversals"
 

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain





The System of the Martin Armstrong
Scam

I need to start with an assumption that the objective of his system is to generate income for Martin Armstrong not to serve the public good in some fashion (financed by some mysterious fund).

He tries to project an image of himself as savior of humanity, see

The Revenge of Martin Armstrong
Quote
Socrates is my gift to all my supporters. It will be writing commentary long after I am gone as long as there is still a power grid.
and others.

We can see immediately that like most scammers he offers some free material upfront as bait and uses his services as the hook.

Let us first explore how his bait system works. In the widest sense he uses multiple publishing channels - not only his own blog site - to attract as many clients as possible. He needs to cast his net on an extremely wide scale because he seems to lose a large number of clients - this number has to be replenished constantly.

He uses 3rd party sites, mostly finance sites, that host some of his content, projecting a positive image of himself while linking back to his own site which contains even more bait and the hooks. In return, he has arrangements with these sites to re-publish some of his bait content. Perfect. Below are some examples:



Martin A. Armstrong: convicted felon, shameless conman, schizophrenic crackpot & financial comedian


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain


510  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: July 01, 2019, 12:07:55 AM
Gold Bubble Pops

Everybody can see this with the naked eye since all of last last week. The USD index creeps back up, and GLD ETF tonnage moves down while the miners are still rallying. Gold up, bonds up, stocks up, dollar up. Everything up. Something has to give.

Marting Armstrong sits in front of his Socrates contraption and writes in his Private Blog:

The numbers are the numbers.

No sell signal anywhere. Useless.

Wait for the "I told you so" comments to come out shortly.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain
511  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: June 30, 2019, 05:13:42 PM
...
However, MA falls flat there as well. Here are some great examples, to repeat the previous 20 pages or so:
2008 - Expect a recovery into 2009, then a crash into 2013, before it picks up again into 2015.75, then another crash. WRONG.
2011 - Expect US property prices to begin declining for 20 years. WRONG.
2011 - Recession in the US after 2015.75. WRONG.
2011 - Major global sovereign debt crisis to begin 2015.75. WRONG.
2013 - share buy backs are a warning light - Sell APPL. WRONG.
2019 - political/economic/banking "chaos" coming to Europe May 2019. WRONG.
...

It appears that even his famous one about the 1987 crash was hindsight not a forecast:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg13594110#msg13594110

I would love to see that under the microscope (time line with sources).

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain
512  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: June 29, 2019, 06:59:02 PM
I don't understand, or currently have access to, the arrays or reversals so I can't speak to those nor do I want to. I am not looking for a short-term trading platform and have been very happy with the information provided to me when I did subscribe to Socrates when it was first launched. Sounds like many here distrust Armstrong which is somewhat ironic since this is a bitcoin forum for something that is purely speculative and created by an unknown entity.

If anyone can share - publicly or privately - what his projections for gold are -- I would like to learn. If anyone can help me understand arrays better - would also like to learn. -

Pretty confident on Armstrong's long-term outlook and track record - and learn something new each week reading his blog. - Thank you for all the info and feedback.

Something to learn from

No new Weekly Reversals for Gold, sorry.

Some history is always useful. As Socrates does not provide it (how would a shoddy system like that do) ...

Date Elected: 2019-06-21
"THE CASH US$ INDEX" Weekly Bearish: 96384, Close: 96220, 2019-06-28 close: 96130, 0.1% gain
"US Dollar v Euro Adjusted Spot" Weekly Bullish: 11343, Close: 11373, 2019-06-28 Close: 11370, 0.0% break even
"US Dollar v Japanese Yen Spot" Weekly Bearish: 107980, Close: 107320, 2019-06-28 Close: 107320, 0.5% loss
"Russian Rubles Cash" Weekly Bearish: 641287: Close: 630246, 2019-06-28 Close: 630246, 0.3% loss
"Cotton #2 (NYCE)" Weekly Bearish: 6540, Close: 6119, 2019-06-28 Close: 6575, 7.5% loss
"Lumber (CME)" Weekly Bullish: 3923, Close: 4053, 2019-06-28 Close: 3751, 7.5% loss

That is fairly depressing.

As a competent trader in this thread noted: Run from it and enjoy life.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain







513  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: June 28, 2019, 09:34:36 PM
You could always start your own service and show him how it's done...

I would certainly not show anyone. I would use it all for myself, use it as a teller machine as Martin Armstrong likes to claim. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/personal-questions-the-club/ And I would not need to run conferences. Wink


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain
514  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: June 28, 2019, 08:58:49 PM
These claims that the computer looks at everything are bogus.

I'm not talking about the price history of a single market - I'm talking about all of the backend inputs you don't see that make up the data set which Socrates pulls from to learn and project future events.
...
The thing I've learned reading Armstrong is that it is impossible for the human mind to do what a computer can do when presented with so much information.
...

Again I have to disappoint you.

The computer is NOT presented with such information. There are no backend inputs you don't see. The computer is presented with so little information it is shocking

The computer processes about 1,000 markets, each of them in isolation, each of them using very little information only. The Socrates back-end is a collection of mickey-mouse programs that were written by a single person, perhaps two.

Armstrong has claimed that his system runs on a supercomputer which is not true:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51583360#msg51583360

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

515  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: June 28, 2019, 08:15:51 PM
Well - I'm glad to know that I'm not the only one who has trouble understanding the arrays.

Everyone can have their own point of view on Armstrong - but somewhere in all of the information presented are data inputs that we can't possibly all track or know about. There is value there (for me) if I can figure out how to decipher what is presented and plan accordingly...

I have to disappoint you.

The forecast arrays have only a single input. Which is the price history of the single market you are looking at, in a single time frame such as weekly. This is shockingly little data. Why otherwise would you need to look at multiple arrays to get the picture?

Have you ever seen in a report written by Socrates a reference to another market such as very important currency, or peer evaluation, of evaluation in the context of the sector that market is part of?

No you haven't. That is because Socrates does not use that information.

These claims that the computer looks at everything are bogus.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain
516  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: June 28, 2019, 07:20:40 PM
...
Unless you haven't read the past 15 pages of this thread, the consensus is more or less agreed that the arrays do not work and Socrates is unusable for trading.
As yet, no one has posted any evidence to the contrary. Were they to, everyone on this board would gladly change their mind.

As far as I am concerned, I have first believed Martin Armstrong and thought that I could not to reconcile the arrays with the reality because it was my lack of knowledge. So, I studied hundreds of them, and analyzed hundreds of reports where the computerized interpretation such as the following failed:

Considering all timing factors, there is a possibility of a rally moving into Wed. 26th with the opposite trend thereafter into Thu. 27th (NOTE: this can be intraday or on a closing basis).

Considering that these arrays are derived exclusively from the single time series, the price history of a single market, a rational observer with IT experience such as me MUST come to the conclusion:

Wishful thinking, bogus, gimmick. Chapter closed.

I feel ashamed that I even spent THAT much energy on them.

Why would someone spend money to acquire some skills to decode information provided by a computer, delivered by an application (Socrates) designed to be used by end users?

Where the desired information, the end result is as simple as "up today" and "down tomorrow".


Quite simply speaking, as a four year old without a pocket calculator would conclude:

The computer is stupid. The person trying to decode the output from a stupid computer is a fool.

Out of simple self interest, I would ask Socrates support: Hey, I am interested in visiting your conference. But I cannot justify going there unless I understand the arrays. Please explain them to me.

You see, the people WANT to be taken for a ride. They are afraid to even face the reality.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

517  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: June 28, 2019, 04:46:43 PM
...
He has forecast some longer term trends accurately, but no better than any other experienced analyst. The decline in EU banking shares into 2018 being one. But he has made far more misses. His bigger recent call was political/economic/banking "chaos" in May 2019. Nothing happened. Jan 2020 is the big one. If that passes by without drama, I really do think the jury is out.

Agree with all of the above.

Would you be able to provide references to a couple of major recent failed predictions please. The really prominent ones. I want to refer to them elsewhere. Sorry if you already did and I missed it. This blog gets very long and difficult to search. Many thanks.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain
518  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: June 28, 2019, 03:16:29 PM
Do you mind giving me the number for the bearish reversal that was elected?

Sorry to step in but I think since I have the numbers ...

Not aware of a DJI weekly bearish but would not be surprised if there was one.

However:

SP500 Weekly Bearish: 284862, Date Elected: 2019-05-24, Future Date (1 period): 2019-05-31, Future close 275206, GAIN: 2.6%

So you get a profit if you trade one week. I am too lazy to check the 3 week result. Perhaps a loss.

olegrey, this is what I am saying, as long as the system does not say what the trading period is 1, 2, or 3 weeks, a reversal is actually worthless.

Keep researching Roll Eyes Perhaps in a few years, you will come to the same conclusion that I have.

Tip: Study data science. Is quicker.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain




519  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: June 28, 2019, 02:44:10 PM
I've been paying the pro subscription which will lapse next week and I won't be renewing. The primary reasons being, my system is able to capture the majority of the technical analysis which Socrates provides (i.e. reversals) so value add for the spend isn't there, and, MA is not able to accurately predict market movements even though his sensationalist writing attempts otherwise. The impact of that is that a users perspective is influenced incorrectly and undermines confidence.

I am glad you say that. I feel we need to watch out for this: Martin Armstrong's sensationalist writings often have a negative and vindictive https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/corruption/is-new-york-trying-to-take-over-tesla-by-removing-elon-musk-with-the-help-of-the-sec/ tone and lack the required research. As such, they often paint a distorted picture of the markets which may result in bad trading decisions if taken seriously.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain
520  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: June 27, 2019, 11:14:58 PM
I am still open to the idea that the Reversals may work. I am going to check them later. Maybe Socrates is good at technical analysis. Who knows?

However, if someone claims anything, the burden of evidence lies upon the one making the claim, not the other party. There has been a mountain of evidence on this thread that Armstrong's claims are just that- claims. There is no evidence in favor, only against. Even if some of that evidence can be waved away, there are still many things that remain and have not been adequately addressed, if at all. Cycle/array models are known to be trash. Armstrong claims to have made calls to predict large scale financial disasters in advance to the day but when he does it in real time, it is always ambiguous. Then he claims he called it. That is dishonest. He won't give a black or white answer. He should instead say he made a trade and why in real time. Not once did he ever do so. He also claims to have an office, a supercomputer, a talking AI decades before they came out these days, a huge database from coins and money he compiled himself, and so on. Evidence for those claims, please. Otherwise I could do the same thing.

I think this is worth reflecting on.

There is some junk on Socrates (mostly the opinion stuff), and I simply ignore it

What actually works? Can you use weekly/monthly reversals to a reasonable degree of profit? Can Arrays improve the probability of Reversal moves? Is it worth the investment for that alone?

I approached Customer service as I am looking for a system to place Tail hedges on market retracements (2-3 month periods). I was asking about the October to December share market pull back and how the reversals flagged this. - They showed me a daily reversal chart picking the move. Why would I be looking at daily reversals for an event that was 2-3 months in movement? I would focus on weekly and monthly triggers. From that perspective this would simply not meet my needs.
Anyone with access to the history of the service will be able to show you some reversal that worked. The problem is that the system itself does not have history. That is why customer support has given you a daily reversal because recently no weekly reversals were elected. I could show you reversals that worked and reversals that didn't. More than 50% fail. I have recorded history of the system from the outside, that is why I have it. Here, in this thread, Gumbi who is a Martin Armstrong affiliate, tells us that it takes years to master the system. The problem is that the system does not tell you in advance which are the reversals that will succeed and which will fail. Customer service can cherry-pick, and they always do that, and nobody has ever shown us in advance how the system can be used for profitable trades. The questions that you ask have been answered here in this thread. Such as that most people here agree that the forecast arrays are useless. I would suggest you take the time and start reading at page 273 until the end. There is an effort at https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com to present the facts in a compressed fashion but this is still in an early stage. We basically closed the chapter after concluding that Socrates is a gimmick, a waste of time.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain
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