I'll looking for pullback but its gone up recent days of course.   The decision now I'm trying to decide if its operating outside of its previous series or trend of gains, we've met roughly the same area of highs seen for this month and its near ATH but not building in the way I would like to see in order to be fully confident of surpassing this area.



We've touched the bottom with monthly average on Friday, passed the 2 day on Saturday and beaten and confirmed above the weekly average just passing into Sunday so we have momentum.  The doubt remains that we need to do this during the week not just weekends, the two currency flows can vary in their sentiment and strength so Monday is a day of conflict imo.

Tomorrow is payday for bets made a long time ago, no new news or court result has appeared to alter the electoral college vote tomorrow.   Even faithless voters or other hazards are not near to an obstacle large enough to change the result overall.    I'm noticing one story about agencies being hacked but I don't think this is relevant to the election just the ongoing espionage hidden war between countries to breach internal data, happens in business too and isn't going away but nothing with a knock on effect to alter an election result  https://us.cnn.com/2020/12/13/politics/us-agencies-investigating-hacking-data-breach/index.html

Its always possible but really theres no excuse after this, we bet on the election result itself and the college vote is the final part.   The race resets and starts over for the next 4 years, its not a large amount of time vs the damage done for little evidence to continue the dispute.

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No absolute certainties but certainly worth watching the probability if we have marked out a high in Dollar index; that'd be a big swing to aid a positive 2021 for BTC.  Generally its hard to predict as every component is a nation also FIAT wanting to keep a roughly similar ratio to Dollar so they continue to export goods at attractive prices presumably.    At some points its hard to keep that ratio like the Swiss and the Euro fix fell apart and I wish I had seen that one but in some ways it was inevitable  so the Swiss found other inventive ways to sell their currency and buy other assets as the ECB trashed the Euro with some bonkers QE programs so Ive read.
   I forget which video this is from but you dont want to watch the full form version when a good idea is simple in its basis and repeated in its nature so self evident.

I want to see if BTC can mark similar action to Thanksgiving with a negative Friday close, positive weekend and rising over the open of the week.   Its still a possible negative scenario as we've drifted a while and lost momentum, stall speed


Tempting, BobLawblaw Observer thread - movement tracking & discussion

For sure 4th times the charm because with a big enough run up it'll break 20k like the paper wall it is, just empty numbers as in the last 3 years the dollar lost value so standing up 20k as if its stood solid all this time is wrong for certain we know this today so its just a case of time for it to fall over.       
   Its also the case the price more or less doubled in a month so you can say its possibly reached its stall speed, it doesn't take much to stop its progress is how I take it and it needs to rest and lose the weak hands before it can continue.   Its not an unfamiliar process we've seen it many times, just getting past the 2019 summer high is enough of a positive for any long term bulls I think.   The inexperienced will have to learn that which again similar to the past.   20k itself has no strength to it as a barrier, energy was lacking on this occasion.    I'll come back with the close of the weekly bar tomorrow and we'll see if its still appearing outside of its old trend and if that matters.

Asia has done far better then most of the west, partly through experience and far stricter rules some voluntary and some not.    I expect Asia to come out of this far better off because they have had this trouble so often in the past and wearing a mask over your mouth is basic good manners to not spread any illness where in the west often its become poor discipline through misunderstanding.
  There are long lasting changes, we note the increase in distance & likely some will be long term and not every change will be a negative as progression was always going to be a requirement to enabling modern economies.
Traffic congestion has always been some negative and cost to society so I'm glad if less people spend 2 hours commuting a day, it shows inefficiency with productivity lost daily when we can take a new path.   I will always take the basic rule of capitalism as efficiency is what gives money worth with correct distribution making society richer; when we distribute via government, QE and political policies we lose efficiency and ultimately our wealth.

   BTC is best taken as part of the trend to change in the world, not just this year 2020 but does it have a place overall in transition away from the ww2 monetary system which has turned into purely political money and too biased to economies in the west rather then aiding growth in the world and developing in Asia especially.   The basic requirement for a currency imo is stability, the highest order of money is security not wealth.

They'll never be just 1 world currency, I wouldn't believe that description of any standard.   Competitive markets wont have just one solution, so currency I wouldn't expect differently

Stake cover esports games and also Betnomi does esports I need to see if they cover some games this week I'll be watching Dreamhack and a small team is there that I know a couple players even but I dont know they'll be in bets covered, I dont know if anyone does every single game and its always the best odds.   Surely this varies on the bettors themselves on that site.      They are reliable enough on the money front which is probably the majority of your question and you can test the rest for yourself over time as I think it will vary.    My best site at times has been places that dont even exist now unfortunately, the landscape can change or good owners but old is gold generally though personal experience and recommendations goes a long way also.

Sunday into Monday trading is going to open higher then Friday close to main markets but Im going to be Debby Downer here and say the weekend rally is not occuring with enough volume to convince me it will hold.   Its likely to be a better area to sell for those that were going to do so anyway and I dont know that negativity exists beyond a trade but its there imo and market has to disprove all negatives before it can really rise properly for grander estimates to year end or any larger price objective.
   We've risen 4% today but the volume does not pass any of the past 3 days while exceeding their highs it does negate that action and collectively they are far more significant hence I say we repeat.   I'll post a chart but in conclusion its just that we are outside the prior trend and rising now is still placing BTC action outside that previous lower trend bar upwards.  So we are best neutral but likely into some type of selling, not for certain of course but imo probably we must consolidate.



16k would be the prior base to check if we do not regain the trend on a weekly closing basis.

Really depends what you say and do, if you started the 'Hodl' thread then you'd likely get a ton of referrals from your signature that way.  I tend to see rough viewing figures sporadically because I post charts sometimes and it depends on where or when you post, if you are the last post on that forum page then its quite possible less people see you and it can be that simple.    If 100 people see a post then 1 might click your signature if you are lucky going on my prior short lived youtube career that'd be about how hard it is to get actual user clicks.


I got another casino spin entry, is it every day.   I wasnt super lucky but prize anyway cant complain  

Owch, no insurance can cover that.   The house is the middleman to bets like this and taking a stance that its impossible for one side to win is to take on this bet with the house money so yea thats a fair point.   Obviously they'd only pay out once, not 2.1bn twice over.   They'd lose customers from failing to honor the final result I guess, its so incredibly unlikely that I think some of this delay is also just about retaining funds and utilising the capital which is to the advantage of the house in that they'd normally not have the excuse to keep this amount of capital on their books for this long without it costing anything.

Every time I read about Supreme court rulings recently it reflects the common or laymans (neutral) take that there is no conspiracy or excuse to be taking exceptional measures nor has any real evidence to represent this view been forthcoming.    Its also true there is at least some cases of fraud, without doubt it exists but not in a statistically significant way which is where the layman gets lost I think.   Its just not probable in any way, the 14th Dec should be taken as the nail in the coffin to this argument imo

Some teams will fade away in the later stages of any event, I think its not just them but the opposing team is playing more seriously maybe using more strats or moves not previously utilised before to a surprise in any round that turns the tables.   IGL that have done their homework and have a rabbit to pull out of the hat at that point will excel and those just bringing their usual game which might be excellent but predictable and so countered will do worse.

Price could hold at the high prices, not breaking up and not sustainably selling off.   Of the two possibilities I would guess we do pull back more in price then this but some think there is a large amount of buying that will not change and demand outweighs supply hence we do push higher.
   I think a fair estimate is we hold up somewhat, so prior high prices if projected to year end is no higher then 19k area and arguably the 50 day average continues to rise and will provide some idea of support until the the two touch then we may not last here but will get reactive movement.   Today the lows were observable in support from prior pricing, if we do break below that support then move your sentiment in estimation and so on.
  Short term we fell below moving averages like a weekly average and going into the weekend price recovered some but I wont predict positively till we pass above again.   3 strands on your banjo for the music to continue,
 watch 17.8k  then 18.2k and 18.8k I dont turn positive in trend estimation till we pass and confirm above again.    BTC very often goes sideways anyhow

Price is in decline at the moment, I think its likely to consolidate for the moment.   We are descending below the 2 day average and finding it as resistance, I think 16500 might hold over the weekend.



So much depends on if we close outside the trend on a weekly basis on Sunday.    I thought a week it could develop this week but it was not for certain but I think heading into end of year its quite possible we get a pullback and it returns at least for a moment to 16k area which is the area for the meeting of 3 bars of action here so very likely has a good volume of buyers and sellers to it.

Its a break of bullish price channel.   We leave a regular assured process of gains and some speculators will depart, it can snowball into some profit taking and is quite a natural normal process to occur.   Arguably BTC markets have to cycle through prices to be take the air out and give a solid base for further rises, its not that harsh considering how much we gained in quite a short amount of time.

In effect its hit 20k, dont go for numbers being absolutely dead on.    Just ask generally if the move filled the idea overall and when you consider the variation across the world its not worth waiting for the last 500 dollars and probably thats why it never got to 20k as its bringing too much consensus as a conclusion to the bull run.    Markets can be ironic and move just enough to put you off while being fairly similar overall, draw conclusions with a crayon.

Price moves in cycles, nothing more complicated then that.   We advance and contract constantly like a wave, on wider time frames we can move to a greater magnitude but recently we havent be moving rapidly or erratically I think.
  I think we can see more movement towards the close of this month as we leave our past regular price gain trend it might prompt some to avoid involvement for a short while and they'll speculate a lower to buy back in but its a risk as nobody can say for sure what action will occur.
  Right this moment the top prices are the 2 day average and the recent low was a monthly average which is still rising so we are sorting ourselves into deciding a wider price that appeals to the majority of the market as the best trade.   I think my guess is around 16k for a target and as always we can rise later

Lets look at daily bars since we're closing to end of day, we're into an interesting time in BTC I think.   We're leaving the regular period to rising in a channel and now have a process of consolidation



So I'm thinking we need 18500 to break past this idea of retraction, I didnt include it but highest volume is on days we resolve downwards with a red bar.   High vol helps some to confirm movement into previous buying is meeting market involvement and participation.
   I reckon 50 day average shown in blue just below here is a viable target, as we've moved sideways in this area prior and also its close enough to the Thanksgiving low to revisit now.   UPside target initially would be 19700 to touch that trend held prior, quite valid as a possibility as I only really count closed weekly bars as confirming us ending this cycle since the election.

I've been in this situation and I wasn't prepared to pay that fee so just sent it manually and got a warning I'd messed it up etc. but as I remember it would always clear with some delay.   In my case it was totally fine about a delay as it wasnt a time critical purchase and I was in receipt of nothing but a credit on a commodity gold account, wasnt a big deal and very often wasnt a large amount to be fussing over.      Convenience will always be a big deal with mainstream operations and Bitpay is trying to appear to be that perfect solution, I agree on their bias and why they always steer people away from using BTC.

Ideally I always prefer a simple system but multi sign could be the best route least easily taken advantage of before time. I always thought the simplest system would be a delayed email and you would have to refer to the password indirectly but recently familiar to all parties previously  for other reasons.  Perhaps thats not secure enough but I wouldn't want to rely on one path in its entirety.  There's probably somewhere that allows something to be sent on a date in the future and you can just keep renewing that date.

Its not a gentle decline imo, we stepped off the ladder which got us this high and to me that normally means we arent floating like a feather but due to correct downwards with more velocity then we rose even.   So thats the scenario in potential and its not yet proven as its just taken place, so wait to see if gravity takes over or we quickly regain our grip and continue the rise.    Its possible but more probable imo its correction far below our current expectations and outlook.    Now I want to speculate where is the safest and strongest support for us between now and year end.