Will no one check their deposit address at weexchange if its empy or not? We would be a step further when we knew that the bitcoins in weexchange are gone from the addresses there. Then ukyo dont have the bitcoins anymore instead having no access to them anymore.
This proofs nothing. My deposits were moved as well .. in June. It is just how exchanges handles their wallets. I know for sure that MtGox does the same thing with the deposit addresses. What you see is the the transferring to/from cold storage combined with mixing and other safety measures. I know that these wallets are different. The deposit address i used will be used to pay withdraws from others and so on. It doesnt look like the bitcoins are collected in another address in the meanwhile. So if everyone looks at their deposit address and there are still bitcoins or there are no bitcoins anymore then this should say something. Or will you say the bitcoins are forwarded to different other addresses that ukyo still owns but in a way that one cant tell anymore that its ukyo's address? |
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SebastianJu: You are misunderstanding him. He is talking about claiming his AM shares which has nothing to do with weex.
kirawei's exact problem is that he a while back entered a public bitcoin address on bitfunder which he didn't have the private key to. Now that the claim portal is finally ready, the option to change the public bitcoin address on Bitfunder has been removed. (probably to avoid problems while making the shareholder list for the issuers)
But why is he writing that ukyo cant sign the message to his address? Maybe only strangely written. Will no one check their deposit address at weexchange if its empy or not? We would be a step further when we knew that the bitcoins in weexchange are gone from the addresses there. Then ukyo dont have the bitcoins anymore instead having no access to them anymore. |
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Ukyo cant sign the message to my bitcoin address. Already messaged you, please contact me immediately!!!
And? If he had access to these addresses he most probably had paid out the bitcoins there. But is there a list of deposit addresses from weexchange? If we know a couple of these addresses then we know the bitcoins are still there or not. So they are either taken away or ukyo cant access them anymore. I make the start. My deposit address at weexchange and bitfunder received bitcoins from me on 26.10.13 the last time. All is gone. In the order of where the most bitcoins went to: 1KMm...ynvg 1BDt...Q3BU 1H9d...FTGR 16LD...pBmW 1E4L...QUrf 1Bbk...uYef Nearly all went to the first address. Anyone has still bitcoins at their weexchange deposit address? |
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How long does Bitcoin Withdrawals stay in waiting mode? I withdrew hours before but still nothing. CT show waiting only.
Unless their hot wallet has run empty, crypto currency transfers should be nearly instant. stupid question, but: did you refresh your transactions page?  if it stays on "waiting" you may want to poke admin / cdev in chat. Yes, reloaded of course. But its still at "Waiting". Ill try the chat. |
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How long does Bitcoin Withdrawals stay in waiting mode? I withdrew hours before but still nothing. CT show waiting only.
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Ken... whats so hard to bring the shares to the exchange? You dont stopped working on it because of a progress with colored coins right? Ask maxmint for coding the verification part, he has done it multiple times for other shops already. The rest should be a childs play.
If you dont have to time to code then hire someone. You realize that weeks after weeks go by?
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Thanks for the calculations. But i meant it more from the view from a individual investor.
For example. If the house is 10k and 1% kelly then max profit is 100. If each bet is targetting max profit then the optimum really would be 1% kelly. But thats not the reality since most bets are way way smaller than that.
That wouldnt change anything for the whole house but if an individual investor could set his kelly value then he could take advantage from that. For example raising the kelly value to 2% for this single investor would probably be a more profitable investment strategy since the invested money can take part with the double amount with each bet. So this single investor would prozentually grow faster in profit than the other investors with 1% kelly. At least as long as no max profit bets happen. Because max profit bets would have a higher risk then. But the max risk at 2% would be to not make a profit at all. No negative profit. So all bets lower than max profit will yield a higher return for that individual investor.
Of course that wouldnt work anymore when all investors set it to 2%. But i doubt that since it seems that many like half kelly in exchange for one quarter of the profits that users with 1% kelly would get.
I only mean the 1% kelly is only correct if all bets are for max profit. Though its not the only param that makes it wrong.
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Think everything went smoothly will see come dividend day I guess.
Please keep in mind that while I expect to send the first batch tomorrow, I can not promise if FriedCat will have time to process the transfers and everything before normal AM divs go out. -Ukyo He always does it on wednesday before div-payments. If you send the request by email its nearly sure that friedcat only will send out divs after all transfer requests he received are done. |
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So whats the refund status? Many refunds? I mean we get big news for Million-USD-Orders but no info for refunds. But that would be interesting.
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the formula is (house edge / bet variance)
house edge = 0,01
variance depends on bet type, with standard 2x (0,495 chance to win) bets you have variance = 1
so thats where the 1% as ideal number for max win comes from, now not all bets are made as standard 2x (the lowest variance bets) so depending on what percentage of bets are made with higher variance, the more we should lower the optimal max win number.
TLDR: optimal max win for just dice is not 1% but <1%
Wouldnt kelly be 0.010101 period then? I mean 0.01 / (2*0.495) = 0.010101010... Youre right... but this max win on changed chance has to be changed automatically to still meet kelly. Thats something hopefully will be set up for obvious reasons. But what i mean is... lets assume all bets are 50%. Kelly 1% would only be the optimum for an investor when a player plays to full max profit. But most of the bids are way way lower than the amount needed for max profit. So the risks that 1% involves are never met for the single investor. He could easily use 10x kelly and still remain way under the 1% of his personal investment used in each bet since only a small portion of the house is used in each bet. The individual investor would have to set a way higher kelly to rally maximize his profits. Though of course he has to hope that its not often happening that someone really plays 1% max profit of the house since then 10% of his investment would be involved. Which is a high risk. I mean there should be a sweat spot for the real kelly value for an individual investor. And thats not 1% kelly. Its higher. I guess im not smart enough for calculating... |
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Could the stats be adjusted? The site stats show only a hour which doesnt bring any info. I think the stats timeframe has to be adjustable for months maybe.
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I have read wikipedia about kelly criterion but i dont really get how much bigger the risk is when using kelly 2% instead 1%. I mean doesnt it mean for JD that at kelly 1% 1% of the house can be won. I see JD is only at 0.5% what is even below the optimum kelly describes. But even with 2%... its a percent value... the house cant really be beaten this way or am i wrong? It can go down very much but each new bet with max win of the house 2% means the house will be less than before... so the max win will be less then. If it would be a fixed value then of course... at 2% the house could be beaten in 50 wins. Which sounds like it will happen very rare. But its not even a fixed value. Its a percent value. That means you cant win back the losses as fast as you could with fixed values but the same goes with the losses. They will slow down. I dont see yet why 2% should be so much worse than 1%.
read: http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/kelly-criterion/(it's great site by the way, in general) and: http://compoundingmyinterests.com/compounding-the-blog/2012/10/12/how-did-ed-thorp-win-in-blackjack-and-the-stock-market.htmland http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/kelly/kellyfaq.htm(see Q5) If edge is 1%, and you wager 2% every time, the house bankroll won't grow. Wager >2%, and it will actually shrink over time. He claims that at 2% no growth will happen... really didnt thought that and its still hard to believe... maybe i should run some script to test this out. Anyway... this would only apply if someone plays really the max profit. If he plays half max profit then 2% kelly would be 1% kelly in reality... I cant find out the formula values to get to 1% as ideal kelly value for just-dice. What are the values for the formula? |
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If there really a first batch would have shipped then we would get a good bunch of divs when the shares are on the exchange again. But we only now got images from workbenches. These workbenches had to exist longer to a whole batch being created and shipped. So i dont think a batch was sent already.
Its a pain that we dont get any infos. I believe in the future i will not invest in securities anymore when the issuer isnt communicating correctly. And i know nothing about when the miners will be ready.
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Wheres the hack attempt? As long as you install teamviewer from a trusted website i dont see the problem.
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Again zero new info. The coins are gone and you will do everything. Great. The fact that you always claimed its a technical problem lets me think its nothing like a gag order. You try to repair it so for some reason they arent available. Though i cant understand since you should have all the private keys.
Anybody know how to contact the forum lawyer besides his email? Or is there any other good lawyer that accepts bitcoin?
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Does anybody contact friedcat by PM?
I have not received dividends after shares transfer.
While I asked friedcat several times, I have not received any responses over 1 month.
I don't know what problem it is. I doubt where my shares are.
You should try it again via email: fnnirvana@gmail.com |
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Hm... doesnt sound like your hoster will have a fun time soon when you sue them... and i hope you can get out without a big financial loss...
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I guess he wants a couple of bitcoins because otherwise he is taking the 35000BTC from the house... isnt that nice?
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If Trap and Trace would be installed already when BF was alive then it wouldnt make sense to close BF. An i think they even wouldnt allow it to not lose their target person.
I wonder what National Security could be involved. Of course "they" always misuse things.
If he was allowed to speak to NEOBEE then he would be allowed to speak to us too. They wouldnt risk that NEOBEE is spreading the info. On top... why should they allow someone gets involved in order to spread Bitcoins? Either they want to block payments or not. But something in between sounds strange.
BF and Weexchange had the same wallet. Weexchange. Bitcoins on BF only were there virtually. But even then...he would have refunded differently. If Bitcoins are in limbo because they are officially at one of the sites then someone that had his funds not at this website would have to get all his bitcoins back. And it wouldnt be needed to repair something. Ukyo always claimed there were technical problems and he needs to access the coins. That practically denies a gag order i believe. Or should i believe thats a cover story? That even NEOBEE is playing in it? Possible but i dont think its likely.
If its because of bitfunder why was burnside allowed to pay everything back?
If ukyo plans to run it independently this way i will use a lawyer for sure. Till now i only want to ask for infos but if he will let this stay much longer i dont have a choice.
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It is more likely the 'legal reasons' that Ukyo is talking about are 'if I told you what happened to your money, you'd have a better chance of suing me, so I'm not going to say anything.'
Some of you guys have your head in the sand.
Ok say for second there is a legitimate legal reason Ukyo can't say what happened to the coins (which is highly implausible, but for hypothetical sake, lets say so). Is that same legal reason preventing him from telling people what happened to the coins also the same reason why he allowed people to deposit to WeExchange for 2 months when he knew that the WeExchange users would not be able to receive their coins back?
I would just love to hear the answer to this. Some of you are are so afraid of admitting to yourself that this is a scam that you aren't even thinking rationally about what has happened, what has been said, and what you have lost.
I dont see whats highly improbable. We know for fact Silk Road is being investigated, and its almost certain some other bitcoin scheme's/scams are being investigated as well. Its unthinkable authorities are not at least trying to track associated bitcoin transactions. Its also very likely at least some SR dealers or users would have used BF/WE (as well as other exchanges and possibly security exchanges). For authorities to gain access to BF/WE's IP logs, email addresses and other data, they would have needed a 2703(d) order. I would go as far as saying it would be very surprising if this had NOT happened. Since a 2703 order is subject to a gag order, and a gag order actually would have made some sense, especially if a " trap and trace" was put in place, Ukyo would not be allowed to disclose this. As for the inability to pay out, here is one of many possibilities; while BF/WE may have been targeted initially just to help catch SR users, it would quickly have become clear to authorities that the exchange itself (not too mention, all the asset issuers) is/are violating all kinds of laws, and once they collected the data they needed for the main investigation, it was shut down, possibly with servers/assets/wallets seized. Danny might be helping in providing a legal way to refund customers without violating money transmission laws, as his company might have the required licenses. The fact that most bitcoins are unavailable might be related to the distinction between BF and WE, with funds supposedly belonging to one or the other being seized. You might guess BF funds were still available as in the past security exchanges have been allowed to close to down properly, see BTCT. Foot note: Im not risking a single satoshi in this, and Im not exactly afraid to call something a scam when I think it is one. Its just that in his case there is a much more likely explanation. One that in fact, Ive been predicting for quite some time. Whats the sense of Trap and Trace when SR isnt anymore and a traced user would have to be really stupid using the same address again? Of course authorities normally arent known as the smartest when it comes to internet related things. Didnt NEOBEE write that he would have told the truth long ago but he accept ukyo's decision? Doesnt sound like ukyo really is bound legally. Why should ukyo being allowed to pay back a part of the bitcoins to all users? Doesnt make much sense. Is it really allowed to seize funds that belong to others? Its not that these bitcoins are ukyo's bitcoins or of its company. They bitcoins clearly belong to the users. If they take them away its stealing and should be different than when we invested in weexchange because then it would become ukyo's funds. Ukyo please give a time when you reveal the truth! |
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