I think it will take another 4 years of investigation, and then another 4 years of courts and in the end the City will be punished by a few pence  But as I wrote earlier, the Premier League is in any case moving towards a financial crisis from which there is either access to the Super League (for the few who survive) or the coming to the fact that cheating clubs should be punished not just harshly, but severely. Whoa. That's actually pretty damned big news, not sure how I didn't hear about it earlier. Cue Pep rants. Like you said, though, last time they got in trouble, they paid a nice "wrist slap" fine, though, so I'm not holding my breath. Remember, they were actually found guilty and banned. An appeal was successful, so who knows what other extras that appeal entailed? What was it that Mourinho said about the whole thing? You're either innocent or guilty, and City were guilty af. Chelski next to get FPP threats?  Surely they can put together an even bigger appeal package =) All this is a muddy story and we can only observe without really understanding what is happening (because some have always spit on laws, all sorts of FFPs, etc. and have not experienced any problems). My guess is that this is an attempt to curb clubs that have inflated spending to unrealistic levels that will never pay off as a normal business, without infusions from sheiks or other moneybags. What Chelsea is doing deserves a separate discussion, but probably "questions" will be voiced to them also soon. |
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That's seriously going at an insane price at this point. I mean they are looking to buy more players? I get that they have a new owner and the new owner wants to show the fan base that he is not afraid of spending money to make the team better and he is not the one to judge for these bad results.
They are doing terribly and owner is just making sure he is spending a ton of money so he could say "I did all I could", but this is just getting too much. He could already say that, they spent over half a billion pounds on players and if they get Leao somehow, which would be insane itself, then they would be getting near the 600+ million levels and that's just not normal, unheard of by any team ever.
Unrealistic figures, but the most interesting thing is that they do not guarantee anything as competitors spend comparable amounts (albeit not a one-time like Chelsea). I will look with great interest at the financial statements of the clubs at the end of this season. The Premier League is the richest and most profitable but it looks like it has already reached the point where spending is close to or exceeds income. I think all this "new" hype around the City has to do with these economic problems. |
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Both clubs unexpectedly lost their games, but I would say that these are very different defeats. Real Madrid maintain a good percentage of points scored, while Liverpool falls deeper and is currently even outside the European competition area. They have a game in hand, but it can also turn not into three points, but into something worse In general, I continue to consider Real as a favorite in this pair. I also think that Real Madrid are the favorites in the Champions League over Liverpool. Real Madrid has good chance to win the match and qualify for the quarter-finals even though they are both in bit of bad form recently. Liverpool have been appear substandard all season even if they did well in the Champions League group stages, but at least I can hope nothing changes from Liverpool regarding their form and they should be out of the Champions League in this round of 16. Apart from Real Madrid being the champions last season, they are the most experienced team in this competition so the mentality can still be expected. Real Madrid's performance has always been good in the Champions League even though they could have lost and failed this season. By the way, now, despite the fact that the bookmakers give equal chances to both Real and Liverpool, I'm sure they evaluate Real as a clear favorite. I noticed that bookmakers very rarely change their quotes much even if the team falls into a period of bad luck or loses its best scorer, etc. In a pair of Real Madrid - Liverpool, initially Liverpool was a big favorite, but now the quotes are equal. This suggests that the bookmakers realized that they were wrong, but they cannot "turn around" their opinion, but the changes that have taken place are the maximum for their business. |
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final whistle blown and game ends with a 0-3, Juventus have lost against Monza that cost them some points, the defeat was an unexpected in my opinion, but I am happy they defeated Salernitana in their home, although this season is turning into a season that Juventus may never forget after their heavy point deduction. They were only able to get one point from three matches which is so bad. The chances of Juventus qualifying for the Champions League is bad, and after losing 2-0 at home to Monza, it's really pitiful for the club.  This season is disastrous for Juventus, I am 100% sure that they will not get into the top 4 and will miss the Champions League next year. And by the way, I have nothing against Juventus, but their recent loss of points pleased me in the sense that at the end of the season, I'm sure there will be many who will add 15 points to Juventus' result and say that they were "killed". At the moment, if you count the points without that penalty, then Juventus is only in 3rd place and such conversations are impossible. |
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The tour is completely over and I decided to check the quotes for winning La Liga, what a pain (for me as a fan of Real Madrid):
Barcelona 1.10
Real Madrid 6.75
Statistically, an advantage of 8 points gives just such chances, that's right, but I will hope that at least a personal meeting will reduce the gap between Real and Barcelona by three points, and it is more or less realistic to play the remaining 5 points in 17 games.
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I think it's time for Liverpool to change coaches because no matter how good a coach is, there is a time. Klopp is a good coach, maybe there should be refreshment in the locker room (motivation problem). Many players performed below standard from the previous season and new players may not have chemistry with Juergen Klopp's coaching methods.
Coach Klopp's style has not changed, it is still monotonous, demanding high pressing players which is tiring. Even though many of them are aging.
Do you want a new manager to come in and change Liverpool's style? I think it's unrealistic, because at one time Klopp came to Liverpool because his style suited the club, in the sense that Klopp continued the style that Liverpool already had. Liverpool play spectacular football and I don't think anyone wants them to change stylistically. As for a simple change of coach (without a radical change in style), it is possible. At the end of the season, Liverpool may be left without European cups, after such failures, coaches are changed. |
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Hmmm... looks weird. Is there an official (or unofficial) explanation for this? After all, >4 billion bets should definitely smooth out all the statistical anomalies and give the expected figure. I think there are problems with statistics, often casinos hold promotions with bonuses and a reduced house edge (at least I read about such a promotion in a thread dedicated to investing in a casino bankroll) and apparently this gives such a distortion.
This particular site has an option to invest, so I don't imagine they would reduce HE as a promotion toll, as they'd need to pre-agree such move with all the investors first, which is not feasible. But maybe the "profit" figure is indeed stated after deducting some other expenses (i.e. referral commission) and that's why it's lower than it should be. But that would probably be accounted for on DiceSites. I'd ask in their ANN thread, but it's no longer monitored by admins. Other similar sire, Bustadice also is a bit off in the EV/Profit ratio, which stands at 82% after over 3 billions bets. I think it's kind of expected for a low-edge games to have big swings i profitability. Max winnings settings also plays big part here, if you set it too high, if someone happens to win big, it could take a very long time to bring the profit close to the EV. No fluctuations (large gains or losses of players) can matter over such a long distance. As for investments, here is the thread: Snipie's gambling investment test In it, one of the forum participants describes his experience, and although he was an investor in one of the casinos, no one asked him (like the entire pool of investors) about holding bonus promotions. And there somewhere inside the thread describes the period when he suffered from these bonus promotions (players won a lot). |
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I wouldn't have expected to see Marseille's unbeaten streak to end by the Nice game honestly.
They weren't very effective this time. Nice found quite many opportunities to score and benefited from them in a great way. Marseille should have been better at defending. I don't know if it was due to complacency. But I don't want to believe such thing. Because Marseille had a good opportunity to chase PSG for even the league title. But now the point gap has got bigger now.
For bookmakers, everything was more or less obvious: ~ 1.93 - 3.05 - 4.40 The bookmakers give an incredibly generous 1.93 (assuming Marseille is really strong), but I guess I fold  Although they would hardly give 4.40 if they knew how the game would end And I do not believe that there can be any escalation of the fight for the title - PSG's competitors are too weak even if PSG is removed - no one team can dominate the rest. In such conditions, they only take away points from each other, increasing PSG's advantage even more. |
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Yes, Kane's wikipedia page in the club titles section is a pain. This simply should not be with a player of this status. Even if he is very comfortable in Tottenham and he is a very big patriot of this club, he has already given the club everything he could and at 29 it is time to think about titles. Bavaria was interested in him - it was necessary to use this opportunity, and even now I think there is still an option to go there.
He should have left Tottenham for a top club a long time ago, when here was 24–25 years. Tottenham is a club with no ambitions for Silverware. A club that even went ahead to sack a coach that was capable of bringing them some silverware right before playing a final. It's really hard to guess which club will guarantee the Premier League titles. For example, remember the times when United reigned supreme and then they fell. To guarantee yourself titles, you have to go to a foreign top club. Apparently Kane had a problem with this as he didn't want to leave England and the old "comfortable" place in Tottenham. But now he literally has a few years left to correct the situation. |
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I think that if you reflect on what you did (and what the result got), you yourself will understand the naivety of your actions. Would you really say if you won all 5 bets that "this strategy works and these guys who make big bets know exactly what will happen"? The result is unknown even for bookmakers which operate with tens of millions of dollars per game (and maybe more) and you are waiting for a "signal" from simple bettors who bet "serious" amounts?
Reading the last sentence of the opening post will answer your question. So I know it's not right to bet on a game without knowing about it, I am just curious if someone does this kind of strategy. What does it change? All questions are relevant, and if you don’t understand why, then you are completely new to betting? By the way, why do you think that betting without knowing anything about the game is bad? Blindbetting is a good thing. And if you think that you can learn more about the game than the bookmaker, then this is also naive. |
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I want to see Union Berlin win. Because they have been really a wild card this season. They started really well and then in the middle they fell apart and now they are again performing really well. I want to see what they can achieve this season. So I want them to win and I also want them to give Bayern Munich a very good competition as well.
But just because I want them to win does not mean that they are going to win. I think there is a very good chance of this match being a draw. Because both teams are quite good even though I think Union Berlin is currently playing better.
Despite the fact that Union Berlin has three points more and they are in second place, bookmakers see this game like this: 1,75 - 3,75 - 4,90 This is probably a fair assessment, given that Leipzig is a strong club, and Union is still the Joker. And really, I don't know what kind of bet I would make. +75% looks both attractive and reliable, while +390% looks even more attractive despite the risk. |
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Manchester City in the Mud! Following a four-year investigation, Premier Leaue charged this fraud team with numerous violations of financial rules. If Man City is found guilty on 50% of the charges, they could face a 15-point deduction or even expulsion from the Premier League. The funniest thing is that even if they lose 15 points, they will still be ahead of Livarpool.. Never seen anything like it. Pep to Chelsea? I think it will take another 4 years of investigation, and then another 4 years of courts and in the end the City will be punished by a few pence But as I wrote earlier, the Premier League is in any case moving towards a financial crisis from which there is either access to the Super League (for the few who survive) or the coming to the fact that cheating clubs should be punished not just harshly, but severely. |
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~ Side note: sometimes millions bets may not be enough. Looking i.e. at the BitVest's stats even after 4.7 billions bets, their profit is only at 47.6% of EV (assuming those stats are correct). Hmmm... looks weird. Is there an official (or unofficial) explanation for this? After all, >4 billion bets should definitely smooth out all the statistical anomalies and give the expected figure. I think there are problems with statistics, often casinos hold promotions with bonuses and a reduced house edge (at least I read about such a promotion in a thread dedicated to investing in a casino bankroll) and apparently this gives such a distortion. |
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I take it this is ironic? The fact that European football is riddled with corruption, financial fraud and, in general, is the most crappy business has long been clear. I don't know what is the reason for the surge of these new accusations, but I think that, as before, everything will end in a farce and the City will not be punished. If the charges laid against them is true, I don’t see why they shouldn’t be punished. They’ve engaged in a fraudulent act and have had a successful season after season all along. If they’re not being punished for this, they’re encouraging other teams to partake in such and this is very detrimental to the world of football. No one should be above the law, no matter how big/small, or successful or not the club is. Its european football, LOL! All the time! I think it is more a warning than a threat. Such move will have a serious impact on EPL and sponsors will be angry about that. City is a key club in EPL and Emirates will not be happy about losing its investment. The whole country might be under threat of sanctions from the Gulf countries in my opinion so politicians will try to be cool and make things goes smoothly in these bad economy days.
When it comes to the survival of the League, I think no one cares about the sheikhs and other muddy sponsors. Like I said, I don't know why it all came up again, but maybe because someone already realized that inflating club budgets with oil money eventually leads to death spirals when everyone is forced to spend more and more just to survive, but for the League there is an income ceiling that it will not be able to surpass simply by objective economic circumstances. |
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I don't understand why Kane is still willing to stay at Tottenham if the rumours are true.
Because this might be like his last chance to sign for a bigger team to compete for titles. Otherwise I don't think there would be many teams at his door after a point. He is aging day by day and he is already 29 now. Tottenham are in no condition to win any title now. They just maintain their same form every season. Joining the Champions League shouldn't be enough for a player like Kane. But if he doesn't mind not being able to win any title with his team then it's his choice.
Yes, Kane's wikipedia page in the club titles section is a pain. This simply should not be with a player of this status. Even if he is very comfortable in Tottenham and he is a very big patriot of this club, he has already given the club everything he could and at 29 it is time to think about titles. Bavaria was interested in him - it was necessary to use this opportunity, and even now I think there is still an option to go there. |
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Even though Real Madrid and Liverpool lost this week in their respective local leagues, of course these results still cannot be used as a benchmark for their performance when they play in the Champions League later. But yes, after all Liverpool are in difficult situations and conditions and also, two teams against Liverpool in the Premier League are quite difficult before Liverpool play against Real Madrid.
With these considerations, of course Real Madrid will still have a chance to beat Liverpool, but if later Liverpool can hold Real Madrid to a draw then that will also be a good result for Liverpool.
Both clubs unexpectedly lost their games, but I would say that these are very different defeats. Real Madrid maintain a good percentage of points scored, while Liverpool falls deeper and is currently even outside the European competition area. They have a game in hand, but it can also turn not into three points, but into something worse In general, I continue to consider Real as a favorite in this pair. |
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I can't even understand the drop in form on Milan. It just happened so fast and at ones. One minute they were doing well and the next minutes they just started dropping points. What went wrong? They were firmly in the UCL spot now they have to struggle to make it and at this rate they won't even see the Europa sport unless they sit up.
Inter are in a good form right now and if they continue, they will capitalize on Andy slip up by Napoli. If they had had this form from the beginning of the season they would have been were Napoli is or closer than this. There are still a lot of games to play so let's see how it goes.
I don't know if this is a Serie A record, but the reigning champions' losing streak has reached three games. And if you take into account all the games, then they have not seen victories for 7 games. This season, all Italian teams have flaws (with the exception of Napoli), but such a failure from Milan raises questions. In the next round they play with Torino and it will be incredibly difficult to take three points. |
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On the one hand, the defeat against Mallorca is a disaster (with Barcelona gaining even more advantage), on the other hand, Real Madrid's statistics are still good - 75% of points scored. Last year, Real Madrid became champions by a wide margin with 75.4% of points. Therefore, I will hope that Barcelona will once have a recession and Real have a chance.
I don't think Barcelona will let that happen to them with the points gap they have created so far. Especially now that Barcelona's game is more promising than what Real Madrid showed. It's hard to stop them this season. Last season it was Real Madrid who could walk very comfortably, but this season it looks like they will be very difficult to catch Barcelona if they are in the current situation. Barcelona have incredible statistics at the moment - almost 90% of points scored, but the seasons when the team shows such indicators for the whole season are very rare. All clubs have recessions and if Barcelona lose points during their recession, Real Madrid will be able to catch up with it. If Barcelona win games during their recession (hard but win) like they have in recent difficult games, they will take the title. |
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I take it this is ironic? The fact that European football is riddled with corruption, financial fraud and, in general, is the most crappy business has long been clear. I don't know what is the reason for the surge of these new accusations, but I think that, as before, everything will end in a farce and the City will not be punished.
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Gambling requires strategy but it must be modified as needed. Applying the same strategy is unlikely to produce the expected results. Also, since it depends on luck, the strategy may not work very well. It is good if you can make your own strategy, but other's strategy must be well researched. How reasonable that strategy is should be seen at a loss. I think in some gambling 50 percent win based on luck and 50 percent depends on strategy and your intelligence.
So you think that there can be profitable (non-profitable strategies are not the subject of discussion, since obviously no one is interested) strategies? It seems to me that if the bookmaker/casino has not made a mistake anywhere (in the software, in the set odds, etc.), then no strategy will change the fact that the advantage is not on the side of the player. |
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