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5241  Economy / Economics / Re: Money is usually debt; Debt is slavery; Bitcoin is neither debt nor slavery. on: March 24, 2012, 10:03:43 AM
True, the central banks own the money, and they legally own the work of the rest of the people. Of course they do not have any intention to spend those money for their private use, they must have the overview for the whole country, this is a critical requirement for central bank

Since money has lots of use (a world without a stable currency will have so many transaction problems), as long as central banks make sure the money keeps its value (low inflation), there will be no complain

BTC network also tries to become a central bank, but due to its constant supply nature, if the economy grows (amount tradable goods/services increase), BTC supply kept no change, price will fall (deflation), it's actually discourage economy growth if used as a currency

And here is something very interesting:
If a society get very high jobless rate and all those jobless people do not have enough money to spend, they will tends to create their own money and grow their own economy

If 20% of people in the country do not have enough money to buy food, and some of them have the ability to produce food but can not sell to market, due to they can not compete with cheap and high quality products generated from highly automated product lines, they can still produce food and sell to other people who produce other similar products, by using another currency

For example, a bread produced by big super market cost 1$, while the bread produced by a private people A can cost 4$, so A has no way to sell his product due to higher cost, and does not have any possibility to earn any income. However, another people B also doesn't have possibility to sell home growned cucumber at $4, but he can exchange his extra cucumber with A to get some bread, thus they need some kind of currency to facilitate their trading (they do not have dollar, if they have, they will buy bread and cucumber from super market at a price of 1$), that's where BTC fits in

5242  Economy / Economics / Re: Anti-Bernanke: An Answer to the Chairman of the Federal Reserve's Lecture Series on: March 23, 2012, 01:24:20 PM
We are going to see a gold supply shock soon... I got report months ago, China has now become the biggest gold producer in the world, and they have cheap labor and abundant of gold mines under 500 meter depth

Gold is valuable because it can be stored for infinite time, and it is scare. Sand can also be stored for infinite time, but it is not scare
5243  Economy / Economics / Re: Help me understand deflation scenario (of fiat) on: March 23, 2012, 01:18:23 PM
We have already made machine, petroleum and computer our slaves, slavery really bring benefits!!!  Grin

Economy is not everything, efficiency is not either, the problem is that a few people who controlled lots of above mentioned slaves produced almost everything and rest of the people need a legal way to acquire the utility of those products

The best way to solve this problem is that those rich people voluntarily contribute their products to others, but this is very unlikely. To force them by using high tax is a way, to serve them with interesting new products is even better

In a time that market expands quickly and there are lots of demands, all these problems will not show, but through time, market will be occupied, demand  will be filled one by one and it is more difficult to find new demand, wealth will again accumulated to those people who can control the most slaves
5244  Economy / Economics / Re: Help me understand deflation scenario (of fiat) on: March 22, 2012, 10:47:25 AM
It's quite conceivable that as robots take over more and more, that we get paid the same for fewer and fewer hours of work -- since one man with an army of robots can produce as much in an hour as an army of men in an hour.  Won't that be lovely?

Historically it has never happened of course.  There always seems to be new jobs for the displaced (once the job market adapts; I think the Austrian school differs from Keynesians in not viewing all workers as interchangable units -- and it is that more than anything else that gives rise to recessions)

Actually if you look at Nordic countries, it is already happening, I think they work only 10 month per year, with some politicians even promote 6 hours of working per day.

But again, due to they are export based countries, their high output brings them enough income. IMO it is still a pyramid model (one rich people serve lots of other people thus make lots of money), if every country will take their approach, they might not be able to export that much

Take island example, if A's productivity increased by 4X, and B's productivity kept the same, A have 2 options:
1. A will work only 2 hours per day

2. A use that extra 6 hours to produce B's products and compete with B

In reality, the second option is more likely to be selected, and this will in turn result in the worsening of B's profitability, and since now A can produce B's products, the island really do not have the need for B, B will struggle to survive since he can not be self-sufficient by only produce one product

This scenario happens especially between countries. Between country A and B, there will always be custom tax or similar measurements to stop A from flooding the market with mass scale produced products

Can USA ask chinese people to work less per day so that they do not put so much pressure on the consumable goods thus create more jobs for USA? No, because it is the USA company actually designed those products and produce them in china and ship back, and those USA companies are profit driven, e.g. work as much as possible to please the investor

5245  Economy / Economics / Re: Help me understand deflation scenario (of fiat) on: March 22, 2012, 10:13:32 AM
Imagine an island with 2 people and one market

A capture 2 fishes per day and B pick 2 baskets of fruits per day, and sell all their products to market in exchange of 1 shell per fish/fruits. And each of them consume 1 fish and 1 baskets of fruits, thus they earned 2 shells and spend 2 shells each day, total money supply is 4 shells

After both A and B's production efficiency increased, A can produce 4 fishes per day and B can product 4 baskets of fruits per day, now fishes and fruits will be abundant, and the sell price will drop due to insufficient money supply (only 4 shells chase 8 products), this is deflation, and money supply must also double to counter the effect

But even the money supply doubled, there is another problem: Both A and B can not consume that much products, they still need only 1 fish and 1 basket of fruits per day, so market will trash the extra fishes/fruits and keep the best half of fishes and fruits for sell for double the purchase price

If the quality of products are already very high, the best solution to avoid waste is that they still produce 2 fishes and 2 baskets of fruits per day using half the time, and take vacation for the rest of the day
 
So, with increased productivity, either the quality of life increased, or the working hour reduced, even both. This is an ideal situation and long term sustainable, but unfortunately the real world is far from perfection, the productivity difference exists everywhere, and today's society is based on a top-down pyramid structure, lot's of imbalances
5246  Economy / Economics / Re: Help me understand deflation scenario (of fiat) on: March 22, 2012, 07:58:50 AM

Here's a question: when everyone has no job and wealth is concentrated in the hands of the few -- what will these robots be manufacturing/servicing?  No one will be able to afford their output.  Therefore, there will be no incentive to automate more.  As with all economics, the truth is that the two competing pressures will come to a balance.


Good question. After each technology advance, there will be a period of high unemployment, until the structure change in society bring those jobless people back to work. These structure change never went easy and quick

Actually there is always a immediate way to re-balance: Reduce the working time

At10x higher productivity, the working time could be reduced to 1/10 of today, but still keep the same income. But today's model limited such possibility, those who have the work can not reduce their working time thus create more job opportunities for others, since they have already been fully occupied and if they stop work and get less paid, they will not be able to payback their mortgage. BTW, in the progress of productivity increasing, it is always the company and investor get the benefit, the workers will never get double paid if he double the efficiency

Take Nordic country for example, they have very high income tax for high income people, and redistribute the money into social welfare, thus keep the balance, but since they are mostly export based country, I don't know if this method works for all countries
5247  Economy / Economics / Re: The official Greece default completed on: March 21, 2012, 02:38:32 PM

if your theories about debt were all so good, why are we having so much suffering around the world right now?  look at Greece, Ireland, Iceland, other PIGS, and even our debt problems here in the US?

why have we had 2 major stock crashes in the last 12 y and a bursting of a major housing bubble which has impoverished so many Americans and is starting to do the same in Australia, Canada, and China?

why are so many ppl willing to invest in the Armageddon trade of gold/silver?  is it perhaps b/c all that money printing you advocate is devaluing their money?

I also do not understand all these, but I remember that I posted before, wealth is not money, financial crash do not destroy wealth, it's only a redistribution of money, it is caused by the cycle of tightening - easing - tightening, the root cause behind all these is that central bank want to keep the inflation rate and jobless rate low, but their action is much slower than the real market development, just like auto fan control always lag the real temp change. In this process many economy activities will be affected negatively, thus impact many normal people's life. If they tighten for 3 month and ease for 3 month, randomly, then I think there will not be so much huge impact, people can not expect fed's next movement, and they will focus more on  fundamentals

Just one thought, since FED has printed 4x more money since financial crisis (Normally 10% more each year is quite significant) to buy those mortgage, it means there are plenty of excessive mortgage, those mortgage were designed to be paid back during next 20-30 years, if you look at 20-30 years money supply, then 4X money supply is not that much. Actually the way they print money to hold the price of mortgage means that housing will not like other goods follow the market rule (supply and demand), it will stay at relatively high price and act as the main consumption for each household. use house to attract the whole nation keep working, smart idea

BTW, I'm shorting both silver and gold, because I think fundamentally they do not have too much use
5248  Economy / Economics / Re: Help me understand deflation scenario (of fiat) on: March 21, 2012, 01:41:28 PM
Another significant reason of deflation is the technology advance. It's not hard to imagine, at an extremely high tech level, robot will replace most of the human work, and that will dramatically reduce most of the people's income if today's "income based on work" model still used. Reduced income will surely cause deflation
5249  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: Surprising undervolting results on 5850 on: March 21, 2012, 10:09:33 AM
I had similar study for 5870 but the conclusion is quite complex, since there are too many variables and it's very time consuming to have all the combination tested

I also observed, voltage goes in step. But for each voltage setting, higher clock brings better efficiency, since more power were put to GPU instead of the other components on card

For each voltage setting, there is a limit on how high the clock can go, so 0.95v maybe can sustain 750Mhz while 1.05v could sustain 880Mhz, I have not compare the efficiency under these 2 situations, but I tends to go for 1.05v due to much higher hash rate


5250  Economy / Economics / Re: Help me understand deflation scenario (of fiat) on: March 20, 2012, 09:54:02 AM
Prices actually going down all across the economy is an extremely rare phenomenon. It might had happen 100 years ago, in the age of precious metals, but people nowadays don't realistically expect prices to go down, and they don't "hoard" money in order to buy more stuff later. You might see it in some asset classes, say real estate, but not enough to cause a generalized and significant price drop in the whole economy.

What actually happens when deflationary expectations set in is not really a drop in prices, but a sharp drop in the velocity of money. It's intuitive: if the total monetary mass changes hands half often than it used to, the total economic output of the economy halves, even if prices stay the same. Because of the lower aggregate consumption, businesses start failing and credit becomes scarce. Mass unemployment and underemployment ensues. People start to consider themselves "lucky" to have a job at all, setting in motion the recessionary feedback loop: households and business defer consumption and investment because they anticipate "hard times" ahead, and holding onto their savings, preferably in the most liquid form possible, becomes an issue of survival. This reduces velocity further, in a self-fulfilling prophecy.

It important to underline that people don't deffer consumption for the sake of speculation, i.e "money will be worth more in the future". Most economic agents are risk averse and they hoard money to ensure continuity and survival, not to seek future profit. That's why simply injecting liquidity (preventing price deflation thus denying the future profit) does not solve the economic crisis. As governments around the world grudgingly start to realize, economic recovery is an issue of confidence, pure and simple. Unlike inflation, you can't manufacture confidence in the printing press - you need good policies and credible leaders.

Good point!

And , the deflation/inflation is not happening everywhere at the same time to everybody,  especially with today's production model, some of enterprises can sit on tons of cash while others might be suffering long unemployment, commodities can have fast price rise while IT products keeps drop in price

So the current "one size fit all" monetary policy (e.g. either easing or tightening from top to bottom), when it solve problem in one part of the system, it will create problem in another part of the system. If the new money flow can directly injected into certain area which needed money most, then the whole situation can be controlled with much more flexibility and efficiency, and the regain of confidence is much quicker

For example, instead of inject money to buying underwater mortgage assets and save banks, put the money to jobless insurance program and ensure all the jobless people will have at least 10 years of jobless insurance, then the total consumption power of the nation will not change by too much, thus the economy will be easier to back on track

Someone might argue that these money will just be consumed and not generate any profit but that is a misconception, these money will surely generate profit for many enterprises which sold their products to those jobless people. It does not matter HOW money enter the system, but it does matter WHERE it enter the system


5251  Economy / Economics / Re: The official Greece default completed on: March 16, 2012, 07:48:55 AM
Actually the market reaction to the default is quite positive, this again proved my observation, that writing off a debt will not hurt economy, since those money has been spent long time ago, it is those who loaned out money get loss, this in turn will encourage borrowing and discourage loaning



except that those loans are kept on the asset side of the balance sheets of whoever lent the money.  once they get written off that leaves a big hole on the asset side and could result in insolvency.

these debt write offs are deflationary as they are decreasing the total amount of debt money in the system.  someone has to take the loss and right now it looks like the banks.

Thanks for point out it is deflationary, and following this thought, isn't that a good thing? In a deflationary environment, the central bank get more freedom to increase money supply

In the old time, the new investment depends on the savings that banks have, but now, it depends on the central bank's easing. How can commercial banks get new money? It can only come from the central bank, nowhere else

By the way, central bank some times reduce money in circulation by selling assets, this kind of operation also have similar impact as write off debts, the only difference is the latter do not have those assets. But anyway those assets are tools for the central bank, not really counted as consumable wealth, only a reserve
5252  Economy / Economics / Re: Technology could disintermediate banks on: March 15, 2012, 04:15:06 PM
Bank could satisfy the human's nature of seeking safety and saving, and at business level they provide the most important driven power of economy -- loan

Since BTC is not good at issueing loans, it will not replace banks in any foreseeable future, it must find a better usage to be more attractive, currently the biggest benefit I think is to transfer money internationally without passing through bank/forex (save at least 3%), but that function is still limited, and those who need this functionality typically have millions of dollar to transfer, that will shake the exchange rate greatly

And the client is still difficult to use, downloading the block chain takes too long time
5253  Economy / Economics / Re: The official Greece default completed on: March 15, 2012, 03:50:16 PM
Actually the market reaction to the default is quite positive, this again proved my observation, that writing off a debt will not hurt economy, since those money has been spent long time ago, it is those who loaned out money get loss, this in turn will encourage borrowing and discourage loaning



i think you're premature.  i think we start getting more volatility as the settlement requirements start filtering in.

Let's see then, I'm also interested in following the consequence

I personally borrowed someone almost 1/4 of my income for years, and that loan has never been able to collect back, what I can do is just admit the blindness of me and keep life going on.  I suppose that many other people also have similar level of tolerance, as long as their income is sufficient enough to support their life
5254  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: A journey of extreme watercooling: Cooling a rack of GPU servers without AC. on: March 15, 2012, 10:34:25 AM
DAT I guess you might consider building a cooling tower when your operation further scaled up. I read about those 50-meter-high cooling tower can cool tons of hot water with only natural airflow, no fans
5255  Economy / Economics / Re: The official Greece default completed on: March 14, 2012, 10:57:55 AM
Actually the market reaction to the default is quite positive, this again proved my observation, that writing off a debt will not hurt economy, since those money has been spent long time ago, it is those who loaned out money get loss, this in turn will encourage borrowing and discourage loaning

5256  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: Impressive 5870 efficiency on: March 14, 2012, 09:11:09 AM
I'm using AMDoverdrivectrl, I can put in any voltage precisely up to 0.01 V, but the read out on my power meter only jumps between 3 stage: 0.95 V; anything between 0.96V and 1.06V; and anything above 1.07V. The difference in power consumption is about 10% each stage

After some test yesterday, I found the most feasible choice is voltage in the second stage (e.g. 0.96v ~ 1.06v) , here the power consumption dropped more than 10% and the card can still run at stock clock or even higher with lowered memory clock, cooling is much easier. The lowest stage can bring down the power consumption 10% more, but that will cause the card to be too underutilized, does not worth the investment
5257  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: Impressive 5870 efficiency on: March 13, 2012, 11:31:15 AM
I'm still testing, if I get enough data sample, I may compile the result to a chart.  Another 5870 barely make 830 Mhz under 1.06v setting, anything higher than that will cause a hard hang, it's also luck related

The voltage only have 3 states: either 1.163V, 1.063V or 0.95V, other voltage settings seems make no difference in power usage measured. Under the same voltage, higher GPU clock always bring better Mhs/J, maybe 0.95v is even better, and that will prolong the life for the card too


5258  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Impressive 5870 efficiency on: March 12, 2012, 10:41:08 PM
I tried to undervolt it to the middle voltage setting, which is 1.063 volt, but surprisingly found out this card can still run stable at 880 Mhz, it became much cooler, and still generate 400Mh/s, total card power draw is only 137W, which brings a 2.92Mhs/J performance, really nice!
5259  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: How to down volt 5870s and 7970s? on: March 12, 2012, 09:37:27 PM
There are only 3 voltage settings corresponding to 3 different states in powerplay, no matter how much I change between those stages, the read out on my power meter stay the same, the voltage only jump between these 3 voltage settings

By running in the middle voltage setting with lowest memory setting and highest default GPU clock setting, the card will run fine and generate much less heat
5260  Economy / Economics / Re: Red Money and Other Plans in the Event of USD Hyperinflation on: March 12, 2012, 03:26:36 PM

The above comment makes no sense. Can you clean up your English grammar?

"It is not same amount of goods, new goods produced more and more every day, or the quality improves continuously"  ...that doesn't make sense, dude

If you can't sense it, just ignore  Cool
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