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5281  Economy / Speculation / Re: Coins Rally After covid what will be%? on: March 31, 2020, 04:18:28 AM
Honestly its not going to be $100K by the end of 2020. Most likely when this is all resolved we might retest the 2019 high at $14K and possibly break it due to the halving. I think BTC has great growth given that the inflation will be much higher in the future and people will want to get in on risk-on assets very quickly so their savings don't lose too much value.

Regarding alts, I have no idea. We have been waiting for alt season for almost 2 years now and besides a few pumps here and there, it really hasn't happened yet. So unless there is some crazy catalyst I wouldn't make any predictions on alt, except maybe ETH. Which if it goes to POS sometime in the next year or so, then it might rally and maybe hit $400 or so, which is a pretty great price for ETH.
5282  Economy / Speculation / Re: Three economic signals that indicate that Bitcoin will see an increase on: March 31, 2020, 04:06:35 AM
I started to frequent alot of stock forums and the general consensus is that most people are only looking to buy "cheap" stocks. Basically if a stock was $100, and now is $75, they aren't interested in it. Most are looking to buy hotel, restaurant, airline, oil stocks which are trading below 50% of their ATH value.

So with bitcoin its the same. People will see how it was $10K back in Feb 2020 and they will see it at $6.5K now and assume its too expensive and wait until it goes maybe to $4k or below. Seems people are only looking for deals and want 100% profits instead of 20% profits like during the bull markets we had earlier.
5283  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Is possible to mine through? on: March 31, 2020, 04:01:27 AM
Yes you can always mine with the console in the debug window, however you shouldn't ever do that. Why?

Because its usually CPU mining only, which nobody does these days. Most people use GPUs or ASICs. Another reason is that its solo mining which makes its even more difficult if not impossible to solve a block on CPU mining.

You need a dedicated mining software and you need to use a pool. You can use the console debug if you are maybe on testnet or you build your own alt-coin to play around with.
5284  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Free electricity, empty building, deducted hardware costs: is it enough to earn? on: March 31, 2020, 03:59:27 AM
If you have free electricity you will always be able to make a profit, however whether its worth the hassle its up to you.

Currently a second hand RX 470 4GB GPU can be bought for maybe $70 or so, the 8GB maybe for $90. You will need 5-6 of these for 1 rig which will require a motherboard, cpu, ram, ssd, and a PSU. Each of those will be maybe another $300. This is assuming you are getting second hand. So say $800 per rig.

A Rx 470 nets $0.30 per day right now. So 5 of them are $1.50 USD per day. This is assuming prices don't go lower and difficulty doesn't go higher. Each rig will use maybe 800 watts or so.

So up to you if you want to proceed.
5285  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Antminer E3 not mining ETC after new Epoch on: March 31, 2020, 03:51:58 AM
I find it pretty bad how bitmain replied a few months ago that there was nothing you can do and E3 wouldn't be able to continue mining, and yet they actually made a firmware release.

So many people probably sold theirs really cheap even though they did some change and you can mine all the way until Oct 2020. Oh well, its too bad because I was wondering what the hashrate decrease would of been to find out exactly how many of these E3 they produced.


Dear Kevin Vercauteren,

Thanks for your consultation!

Sorry for your inconvenience we got the confirm from technical department
E3 miner is a 4G video card. E3 is related to eth algorithm, and DDR capacity is up to the upper limit, so E3 will not be able to continue mining.
the meaning is E3 only can mine to January 2020, then will not mine again

Please let us know if you have additional questions or concerns.

Follow us on:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/Support_Bitmain
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/BitmainSupport/
Youtube channel (Bitmain Support:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOzm10_uGrt4BhfuMJbVfMA) subscribe for more official help videos!

Best regards,
Jessica
​BITMAIN

5286  Economy / Gambling / Re: 🚀💫BITCOIN CHASER💫🚀 - Latest reviews and best promotions 🎰 on: March 30, 2020, 05:22:50 AM
We will be removing them from our site - this is not a matter of if, but when. We are working on finding suitable replacements as we speak.
I fail to understand why you must find a replacement before removing a site.

If a site is bad enough to be removed, then it should be removed immediately. Unless you have a different reason Wink

Yes it makes completely no sense why he just doesn't remove it immediately, there is no reason to find a replacement first. Just remove it, and then find a replacement.

This is the issue with many of these review sites. All they do is write fake reviews because they never actually play on the site and just want affiliate income. If they actually took the time to review the site and read many of the scam accusations, then they wouldn't even deposit their funds into the site to write a review for it. This is why I am not too fond of any of these review sites. I think the general public should just search for the official casinos ANN page on Bitcointalk and read the hundreds of replies to the specific site and judge for themselves whether its risky or not gambling with them and not rely on any of these review sites which have affiliate profit.
5287  Economy / Gambling / Re: Is there a binary or digital option trading platform based in Bitcoin? on: March 30, 2020, 05:12:53 AM
I would stay away from Binary options. Whether its Bitcoin binary options or regular Forex binary options because you will never turn a profit on those. They got a very high house edge and impossible to make a profit.

There is only one actual bitcoin options exchange and its Deribit but keep in mind that they are KYC now. Which is sad because their options actually have decent volume now. You can deposit BTC and you are paid in BTC and I think there is a leverage also unlike most stock options where you are not allowed to buy the option on margin. So if you really want to trade options try that but look at the premium because they are usually very high in times like this where everyone is bearish.
5288  Economy / Speculation / Re: How will the Halving affect the BTC price? on: March 30, 2020, 05:09:45 AM
The issue is that many people are looking at crypto and how its correlated with the stock market. This is why we were tanking earlier however now that the stock indicies futures are open and they are not tanking we are actually rallying back up.

So if the situation gets worse and if SP500 keeps hitting new yearly lows every week or every other week then it won't be pretty for BTC since many consider it to be an risk-on asset and many sell those usually in recessions. At times like this many want to remain cash and rather buy stocks or cryptos at a fraction of the price sometime in the next 6 months or so.
5289  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you think? on: March 30, 2020, 05:06:36 AM
I'm going for a inverted DCA strategy, where I will sell fractions of bitcoin each month.
I think its the best way to get out. If you sell all of a sudden, and the government decides the COVID-19 drill is over, the price will certainly go up, and you will lose profits (or the opportunity to mitigate losses). A inverted DCA is as good for a bear market as a standard DCA is for a bull market.


This is a good strategy however not in a bear market like we are right now. You should of been doing this inverted DCA selling when we were hitting new highs at the beginning of the year or in the middle of 2019. Selling little by little right now is better than selling everything at once because it could go down further however the price is pretty low right now compared to how we were easily over $10K a few times in the last year.

I keep telling people that it doesn't hurt to take profit. I remember in February there was a 6% June futures premium and I think it hit like $11.5K at once point and would of been a very good price to sell, selling right now doesn't make sense. You might as well wait and see what happens during halving. Right now is a time to buy if anything.
5290  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Number 9! Ninth altcoin thread. Back to the moon Baby! on: March 30, 2020, 04:35:01 AM
Been out of the loop for the past couple of weeks due to the Covid19 issues and didn't have as much time to research regarding ProgPOW and E3 end of life date. So far from what I understand the ProgPOW was a go, then people went all over Reddit and Twitter complaining to the ETH devs and they decided to not do ProgPOW, then they had some conference call which was 50/50 and haven't heard anything since. So is ProgPOW a go or not? Anyone got any concrete details?

Also it seems like next week sometime the Antminer E3 will cease to be able to mine ETH anymore. Basically it will stop at the same DAG as it did with ETC. Wondering what will happen to the hashrate. Honestly with all that is going around I still think the hashrate is still pretty high and hardly changed from the peak in Feb 2020, basically proof that most people are mining ETH with free or very cheap electricity rates.
5291  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Binance will delist all FTX leveraged tokens. on: March 29, 2020, 04:31:55 AM
It's good that they are doing this, way too many inexperienced people would lose all their money. Honestly the stock market should do something similar and prevent retail traders from trading options.

There are way too many people who are buying puts on the stock indices because they think the market will crash further. The stock market has a sideways day or up day and due to the IV and decay the option loses like 50% instantly and people are buying 4-5 figures worth of these options. Much more riskier than those tokens in my opinion. It's good that Binance is different and they protect their customers, instead of just saying "trading is risky!"
5292  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: [POLL] What are miners plans-April ETH 4GB DAG ASIC drop dead & July ProgPow on: March 29, 2020, 04:26:20 AM
The ETH DAG goes above 4Gb in december and not April  Roll Eyes
I does but the 4GB ASICs are predicted to be unable to mine on 4/8/2020.

Yes they will be rendered useless when it hits the same DAG as the ETC DAG which made everyone discover that they were at the end of life.

I didn't really do a specific calculation but those ASICs most likely never ROI for anybody, especially the 2nd batch which was more pricey after they found out that ETH won't fork to a new algo to stop the E3.

Will be interesting to see how the hashrate changes. We will finally find out how many of the E3 Bitmain actually produced. Will it be profitable for home miners? Probably not, not unless we get >$250 price.
5293  Economy / Economics / Re: U.S. Recession short term on: March 29, 2020, 04:17:34 AM
Even if Corona goes way sometime in the next 3-6 months, it doesn't mean the SP500 or DOW30 will hit a new ATH very soon. You need to understand that the US stock markets were very stretched and inflated. People were buying stocks like crazy, and there was less supply, and hence why we kept getting new ATH every few weeks for years. Similar to what happened with BTC in 2017.

So if the bear market is over, it could be 10 years before we break those highs again. Also keep in mind that the Boomers who got tons of money in their retirement, will most likely start cashing out in the near future and it will lead to oversupply of shares and cause the markets to trade sideways or downwards. So it might not be a repeat of 2008 where it hit a new ATH a few years later.
5294  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you think? on: March 29, 2020, 04:07:44 AM
I doubt that corona will be "resolved" all that easily, humanity will just adjust to it and starts living with it, you think swine flu or bird flu or influenza or whatever else just gone away totally? They no longer exists? They are still around, they still kill many people as well, we just started to learn how to live with it and it doesn't kill as much as it used to because we have medicine against them.

So, what will happen is we will find a cure, we will fix many of the sick, there won't be many that are sick and out there anymore, anyone who gets it will go to doctors and get better, and that way people would be allowed to go outside because even if you get infected you will be cured so there is no problem anymore. That is not something we do overnight.

We will adjust to it when there is a vaccine available. That way if there is an outbreak instead of isolating the entire planet, people will just take the vaccine and go to work. The reason why people don't go to work is because there is non available. And most people are just waiting for a vaccine.

Why risk going outside, getting infected and dying 2 weeks later. Not worth it. If there was a vaccine then it would of been different. Maybe that drug combo that Trump suggested will work as a way to cure the virus against the ones infected however there is no proof it works yet even.
5295  Economy / Speculation / Re: Why bitcoin should be bullish at this moment! on: March 29, 2020, 04:03:33 AM
Most people these days rarely use cash. In China, I think most payments are done by Alipay which is by a phone. In North America we got these credit cards that have a "tap" feature and you just hold it close to the terminal and it will do it wirelessly.

Also most cash these days in most countries it made of different material that was used 20 years ago. Back then I remember it was made of a material which was paper pretty much and it could hold stains and viruses easily. These days its of a material thats similar to plastic, so it can be easily washed with a Lysol wipe if people are concerned.

I am bullish for bitcoin but this won't be the reason why people stop using cash and start using BTC.
5296  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: SIXTEEN AND A HALF DAYS for this last difficulty reset?!?!? Way late!!! on: March 28, 2020, 04:28:43 AM
Pretty sure that most of the miners out there, they just sold their GPUs and left crypto all together. The true and devoted ones are the ones which are either mining at a loss or sold their farms in exchange for some BTC or ETH.

Regarding a price crash? I am pretty sure we bottomed out on the 13th when we hit the low $3k's and ETH hit $80 yearly support. How low are you expecting BTC to go? You won't see $1K BTC anytime soon. Stock market can crash all it wants but most likely BTC will trade sideways.
5297  Economy / Speculation / Re: My Bitcoin Speculation Thread. Please Critique my Analysis. ;) on: March 26, 2020, 04:14:57 AM
It looks like Bitcoin will be correlated again with the stock markets. There was a nasty open which led to the stock indicies getting the limit down halt hit and BTC also had selling pressure.

It does look that way. Technicals and fundamentals are both pointing down. The pre-market futures open and the failure of the US stimulus bill has really set the tone for next week.

So the reaction of the New York open will be the sign of how the rest of the week will trade. And especially the reaction to the unemployment numbers when they get released later on.

Scary headlines on that front:

Michigan sees 2,100% increase in unemployment claims

COVID-19’s Worst Case? 10.6% Jobless Rate, $1.5 Trillion GDP Drop

Quote
Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard expects that by April the unemployment rate will rise from 3.5% in February to 10.6% — with 12 million more unemployed than the 5.9 million total from last month — a 203% spike.

I think that there are way too many people who are betting that tomorrows employment data will be horrible and they are shorting the stock indicies or loading up on puts. Currently they are expecting 1,500,000 people filing for unemployment but in California alone I think over 1 million people already filed. When you add the 49 other states its definately going to be a miss.

Now here is the issue. Every Tom, Dick, and Harry knows the numbers are going to be brutal. And they are turning into huge bears expecting the SP500 and US30 to drop to new 54 week lows. What usually happens when the herd is following one direction? Usually the opposite happens.

Sometimes the herd is right like with the airlines crashing and oil crashing however I think tomorrows numbers will be one big bear trap.
5298  Economy / Speculation / Re: What do you think? on: March 26, 2020, 03:46:43 AM
The corona might of caused the stock markets to crash which might of caused the price of BTC to go from $8000 to $6000, what happened afterwards was due to massive long liquidations on Bitmex.

Being the largest derivatives exchange and basically bitcoin hovering around $10000 back in Feb 2020, made people open up massive long positions due to the halving FOMO. And the problem with being long with BTC as collateral is that if BTC goes down, your collateral also goes down. So even if you were 1x long at $8000, you would of been liquidated anyways at $4000. And there were maybe >$1 billion of these liquidations, hence why it crashed down to $3500.

This is the issue with high leverage derivative markets on a thin orderbook.
5299  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Do you trade bitcoin options? on: March 26, 2020, 03:39:06 AM
Bitcoin option is not trading. It is gambling. I gambled for years and I lost huge amount of money. Later I focus on trading. I prefer short term or day trading before but the gain was lesser than long term trades that have traded. Later, it just occurred to me that what about me trying binanry optiion, then I went for bitcoin option. I lost bitcoin easily in minutes and hours. So, I decided to leave doing it. I then consider it to be gambling. I have not even failed in day trading the way bitcoin option failed me.

Bitcoin options are not gambling, maybe bitcoin binary options are gambling because those have huge house edges. Vanilla options are different, there is a open market. You can be a maker of these options also.

The reason why they got a bad reputation is because of the amount of people who trade them, have no idea how they work exactly and lose all their money. Bitcoin options aren't really that popular but the stock options that are traded on the NYSE stocks are very popular and many retail traders lose money on them. Why? Well because they don't understand the greeks. And they usually buy the option which expires within a week which has a huge decay. And market makers know there is tons of demand for those overpriced options because the retail market buys them like crazy, and hence they profit off it. If you want to trade any options, don't trade the front month, trade the options which are at least 3+ months away from expiry, they cost more but got less delta decay.
5300  Economy / Gambling / Re: 🔶 YOLOdice.com 🔶 WEEKLY COMPETITIONS, fast bets BTC LTC ETH DOGE on: March 25, 2020, 08:02:26 PM
Honestly when you are offering 2x leverage, you might as well stick to 1x, it is still risky yet not making you THAT much money to worth it. If it was 100x I would kind of understand it though.

Being able to reduce my counterparty risk by 50% is very significant. This isn't about making more money, but rather protecting myself against hacks/a potential exit scam. (not that I'm saying either would happen to YOLODice, but it's always a possibility)

I know what you are referring too. You basically want to invest say 10 BTC and you feel comfortable with that amount but in case of getting your account hacked you would rather have less counterparty risk such as investing 10 BTC but only keeping. 5 BTC as maintaince collateral.

This is where I think smart contracts would play a big roll and many people such as people who hedge Bitcoin with Tether would be able to provide more funding. It would be nice to provide bankroll or funding for 10BTC but only have to keep 0.1BTC on the actual site and the remainder would be in some smart contract in case your loss is greater than your maintaince margin so more would be taken out of your smart contract and sent to the site.

This is also why it's expensive to borrow USD or Tether or open a derivatives long on Bitcoin , because there is just too much counterparty risk.
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