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5301  Economy / Economics / Re: Junk Money Party will go on for 3 years on: February 17, 2012, 11:31:39 AM
On an island with only 2 people and one central bank, both A and B loaned 1 million dollar at the start of the day, the loan have 0 interest but must be returned at day end

A paid B 1 million dollar for B to sing a song, and B paied A 1 million dollar for him to dance in the court

A and B will be able to return the loan at day end. We could say that both A and B were doing stupid things but as long as they are doing it together, there will be no problem

What if only A paid 1 million for entertainment but B do not order 1 million entertainment from A? Then A will not be able to return the loan and B will have some saving, and B think A is a stupid guy: paying 1 million for a song

It's a typical "race of thrift", if one of them can live a low standard life by spending much less than the other, he will accumulate money and put the other into debt

Money is a tool for cooperation.  If B can not buy anything to A then the money he owns worths nothing.  So there is no problem.

In reality, since there are billions of people, even B won't buy equivalent worth of products from A, A might still be able to sell something to C, so the reduction in consumption from B will not be felt directly. But anyway, increased spending from C will require increased sale from C, thus B has to buy something from C to keep the whole system in balance

Besides, both A and B usually have high incentive to hold a little extra money, because they regard money as "wealth", they even want to give this "wealth" to their children and grandchildren...

Therefore, money supply does not only need to fulfill the requirement for transaction, it also need to fulfill the requirement for saving, that's the reason in a financial crisis, the money supply must increase dramatically, since lot's of people's behavior changed, they started to save more and spend less

5302  Economy / Economics / Re: Looking forward to Bitcoin's complete collapse on: February 16, 2012, 11:10:37 AM
Fiat money is a legal tender, it means no one can refuse the payment with fiat money. BTC do not act as a legal tender, but that does not stop others from accepting BTC as a payment method. It will be only popular in the net-generation
5303  Economy / Economics / Re: Behold: one of the largest Ponzi schemes of all times on: February 14, 2012, 08:00:28 AM
Soros recently said, those European Banks want to slave Greece

It seems those countries in warmer climate tends to get a deficit and those countries in colder climate tends to get a surplus, due to the weather: Warmer weather tends to encourage outdoor activities and spending, colder weather tends to encourage working (in house)
5304  Bitcoin / Mining software (miners) / Re: CGMINER GPU bitforce overclock monitor fanspeed RPC in C linux/windows/osx 2.2.5 on: February 13, 2012, 02:46:56 PM
I have never upgraded SDK, always used original 2.4 from LinuxCoin final, but still have problem with every newly compiled cgminer (those compiled one month ago still works fine)
5305  Bitcoin / Mining software (miners) / Re: CGMINER GPU bitforce overclock monitor fanspeed RPC in C linux/windows/osx 2.2.5 on: February 13, 2012, 11:55:02 AM
This is what I experienced during the weekend:

I received a 5970 and replaced one of my 5870 with it, after graphic card change, the previous LinuxCoin installation cannot start correctly

So, I took another USB stick, installed freshly a new LinuxCoin on it, boot it into LinuxCoin, run phoenix miner, and all 5 GPU gave decent hash rates stable for 6 hours

Then, I downloaded cgminer 2.2.4, updated and installed other dependency packages, then compiled and started it, after 1 minute, it claimed 2 of 5 GPUs dead and rest of GPUs' hash rate dropped 20%

I downloaded cgminer 2.1.2 (which worked flawlessly on the original USB stick), compiled and started (after removing the .bin file from home directory), same problem

Then, I rebooted the machine, fall back to my original phoenix miner method, surprisingly found out that even phoenix only worked on one of the GPU and hang on rest of them

There is one thing I remember: Last time when I tried to compile cgminer 2.1.2, I tried to install libcurl4-openssl-dev and  libncurses5-dev but one of them just can not be found, so eventually I installed something else to bypass the dependency check. But this time, it went all smooth. I think one or both of the packages have changed since one month ago and caused these new issues

Finally I have to switch back to the previous working HW/SW configuration, hoping that I could just fix the xorg.conf to get new graphic card recognized



5306  Economy / Economics / Re: Behold: one of the largest Ponzi schemes of all times on: February 13, 2012, 10:18:44 AM

Now someone comes in, who can produce shells easily, and loans both A and B 100 shells. From the perspective of A and B, it looks like they each got richer, but in fact, the money they now have has the exact same value as it did before. Only now, the total number of shells in this two-person island economy will be 250. Both A and B still consume and produce for 50 shells, and have 100 shells safely stowed away in a safe. Neither of them can use the 100 shells they borrowed to create additional growth, because the amount of actual resources remains unchanged.


It's amazing that you get the idea right away, now if you just tweak this simplified model a bit to be closer to reality:

Although the amount of resources are unchanged, but the technology advanced and A and B accumulated experience, their productivity increased by 10 shells a year, thus the money supply should also increase by 10 shells per year, otherwise their increased productivity will be blocked by fixed money supply. In such case, that 100 shells loan will provide them with enough liquidity: They borrow 100 shells, but maybe only spend 10 shells in new products/services

On an island with only 2 people, maybe it is very easy to feel the increased money supply and adjust the price for products immediately (inflation), but in a society with hundreds of millions of people, the increased money supply will be not felt directly

There is another possibility that both A and B might have already reached a wealthy status thus any extra money won't stimulate significant amount of increase in production and consumption, that is a common problem in developed countries
5307  Economy / Economics / Re: Behold: one of the largest Ponzi schemes of all times on: February 11, 2012, 10:36:50 AM
Isn't the real problem that they borrowed more money than they could pay back in the first place? Perhaps because they erroneously assumed they would always be able to borrow money at a low interest rate.

It's a good question, but the answer is complex at macro level. I have not worked out all the scenarios, anyway here is a simplified example:

In an island with only 2 people, A and B yearly production and consumption is 50 shells worth of goods and services. And one day, they both get approved a one year loan of 100 shells (0 interest), then natually A and B would worry about if they could spend and repay those loans in one year, because that loan is 2 times bigger than their annual sale

But soon, they both find out the other guy now have many shells to spend, then they will produce new type of products and services to earn other's shells, those new products/services will come at a higher price than they previously did. At the end of the year, they both earned 100 shells extra and returned them to the bank. During this year, their production and consumption both increased a lot

Of course this is a simplified case, in the real world, they are most likely to spend less than they borrowed, but the important thing is: if only A get loan, B get nothing, then A won't be able to make any money at all since B do not have extra money to spend

5308  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: Any way to auto-restart the machine when X crashed? on: February 10, 2012, 10:50:52 PM
Ironically, I found out the reason that causes crash is that my auto-restart script tried to launch aticonfig command on sick cores thus hang up the whole X, now I have switched to other auto-restart method which do not involve aticonfig command Smiley
5309  Bitcoin / Mining software (miners) / Re: CGMINER GPU bitforce overclock monitor fanspeed RPC in C linux/windows/osx 2.2.3 on: February 10, 2012, 04:07:13 PM
2.2.3 had strange behavior on my fixed-fan-rate rig, 10% lower hash rate on 5870s and crash on 5970
5310  Bitcoin / Mining support / Any way to auto-restart the machine when X crashed? on: February 09, 2012, 11:09:07 AM
X crashed due to some hard hang in one of the GPUs, but I can still ssh into the machine and manually restart it.

Is there anyway to auto-restart the machine when this happens?

All aticonfig based detect method won't work, since aticonfig will just hang there and never return anything after X crashed

Checking process method also has trouble, since the mining process is still left intact (just became zombie)
5311  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: POLL: What temps & fan speeds do you maintain for 24/7 mining? on: February 08, 2012, 10:04:58 AM
But when the machine hangs for a couple of hours (due to too high overclock, unstable gpu etc...), the extreme low temp will hurt the fan bearing, those fans have become so noisy recently that I plan to take them apart to re-oil

If you ever want to rig up a "thermal protection system" it could be as easy as a 100W light bulb rigged to a thermal switch which cuts on/off at temp below lowest operating temp and above freezing.  Put the thermal switch near air intake.  When cards are running enough to keep temp up the switch is off.  In a failure, temp drops, switch closes, and 100W (maybe 200W) light bulb turns on keeping rig from freezing.

Smiley  Plus saying your rig "outdoor ready" due to a "Thermal Protection System" just sounds cool.

Good idea, just that 100W light bulb sounds very luxury, I'm sure that I can use the heat from the GPU instead, but a usb powered intake that opens and closes matched to case temperature is out of my reach now  Cheesy
5312  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: POLL: What temps & fan speeds do you maintain for 24/7 mining? on: February 07, 2012, 09:41:48 AM
GPU temperature -> the lower the better (less leakage currents -> reduced power consumption)
fan speed -> the lower the better (cheap sleeve bearings...)

So I've recently put my rigs on the balcony, got me into the range of 40-60% fan speed and 30-50 °C GPU temp (before: 70-100% and 60-80 °C), reducing the total power (at the wall) by more than 10%.

People placing their rigs on balconies/outside have no issues with humidity (not to mention rain, etc.)? I was wondering if I could do that but it is too cold outside now (-18C at noon, up to -25C at night)

My open frame rig running on balcony have a transparent foil cover the front/side/top of the frame, I think the actual temp inside is still above 0 degree even the outside temp is -20C, I still need to set the fan speed above 30% to keep the GPU temp less than 60C, which is my normal target temp area. As long as the machine is warmer than environment, there is no risk for condense

But when the machine hangs for a couple of hours (due to too high overclock, unstable gpu etc...), the extreme low temp will hurt the fan bearing, those fans have become so noisy recently that I plan to take them apart to re-oil
5313  Economy / Economics / Re: The Hoarding Instinct on: February 06, 2012, 11:13:38 AM
i categorize saving/hoarding in the same thought process that compels people to get high scores in computer games.

it's always fun to make a new high score, and to see your wallet balance higher than it's ever been before.


only apply to certain people I guess

I used to use game modifier to change my wallet ballance to 1 billion and play the rest of the game with limitless money, then it is not more interesting make higher score or make more money in the game, I can enjoy the other aspect of the game
5314  Economy / Economics / Re: Behold: one of the largest Ponzi schemes of all times on: February 06, 2012, 09:37:08 AM
johnyj: If a country is unable to pay, a lot of debt does not get paid back, and simultaneously, interest on private lending will rise because of generally elevated risk due to the caused instability.

If everybody pays back, it's all nice, but this is not the case with Greece. That said, the analogy doesn't hold.

At enterprise level, the risk model of interest works, but at sovereign level, it's different. A sovereign country can always produce a little extra money to pay back the interest of its debt, or refinancing, thus buying time to improve the economy situation

But Greece and other EU troubled countries are different, after they joined EMU, they have lost the ability to print their own money, thus totally dependent on ECB to produce money. But ECB might not have enough motivation to produce money due to pressures from other countries like German and France

All the children owe their parents a lot and their parents seldom want it paid back. So, debt not being paid back is a norm in everyday life, but the real problem is that not everyone have access to easy loans when they are in trouble





5315  Economy / Economics / Re: Behold: one of the largest Ponzi schemes of all times on: February 03, 2012, 01:04:39 PM
Digging this up because nobody else answered. Again, I don't think the problems I named were addressed

Someone has paid that money, and it entered the system afterward. These people will make losses if the debt vanishes, and therefore massively raise interest rates. If this is paid with new money, the funds that were initially distributed cause inflation, as they are left on the market as extra money after the whole operation

Can you draw a graph of how the money flow, including the initial lending, is supposed to look like? I claim this is not possible, or will show that the position at the end includes an unsolved problem

Money flow can be simplified like this: I borrow 1 million from bank, buy 1million worth of services from you; you borrow 1 million, buy 1 million worth of services from me, and we both return our 1 million sale at the end of the cycle to write off our debt

However, if we have to return more than 1 million (banks want interest), and even have some earning for ourselves, then there must be new loans enter the system to let us make more money than we initially borrowed

The concept of profit from macro point of view: If money supply stay the same, then if some one make some profit, some one else must made a loss. If everyone is making some profit, then money supply must have increased

There could be hot money in the market and they could not find a suitable investment target, but that does not necessarily cause inflation. FED's balance sheet has quadrupled since financial crisis and we barely see some sign of inflation
5316  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: -18 C degree, mining rig crash ? on: February 02, 2012, 06:50:55 PM
Reason found: It's one of that 5970's core dead, now I completely disabled that core in cgminer, then the mining rig keeps running as usual

Actually I also experienced once crash in one of my most stable 5870s, I guess there is a limit how many hours you could run them at 99%, should be much less than factory specs
5317  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: -18 C degree, mining rig crash ? on: January 30, 2012, 03:39:56 PM
Hmmm.. if its registering 50C, that kinda rules out overheating. Im not intimately familiar with the 5970 cooler design, but I assume it uses a single large cooler, so that may not be it; there is no reason the temp sensor would be lying. Although.. can you monitor VRM temperatures? Perhaps the fan is spinning very slowly  because the GPU is so cool, that the basplate covering the VRMs gets too hot? If thats the case, it could be easy to solve, just manually set a higher fan speed.

Other thought, could it be the CPU overheating if that has a heatpipe cooler?

CPU running on stock cooler without heatpipe

I think maybe it has something to do with that 5970 card, since it has been working badly after I purchased it(second hand), it always crashed if I raise it above 750Mhz and recently I could only get a stable run at 710Mhz or lower. If there is a way to raise the voltage, maybe I can get a more stable result, but it seems cgminer can not push it over the BIOS limit
5318  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / Re: -18 C degree, mining rig crash ? on: January 30, 2012, 08:57:34 AM
Ironically, your card is likely overheating. Its because the heatpipes dont work at too low temperature., the liquid in it freezes or no longer evaporates.

If that's the case, I'm relaxed Cheesy  just put the a box on it will bring the case temperature back...

Anyway, the sensor still shows 50 C degree for each GPU when in mining, I doubt that maybe some of the other components in the power supply module could not provide enough voltage due to low temperature
5319  Other / CPU/GPU Bitcoin mining hardware / -18 C degree, mining rig crash ? on: January 30, 2012, 08:01:43 AM
Is there anyone experienced hardware crash due to very low temperature?

I used to put my machine on balcony and after the air temperature has dropped below 0 degree, I had encounted frequently error in one of the cards (5970). Yesterday temperature hit -18c  degree and no matter how much I lower GPU frequency (600 Mhz currently), it will still crash after start cgminer for about 5 minutes

Or, it is just my 5970 runs out of juice?
5320  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin is a way for indebted nations to survive! on: January 28, 2012, 10:51:50 AM
IMO, BTC's bright future is in pension fund: The price will increase overtime and have high liquidity, one can save in BTC and when he/she retired, he will have a fortune to spend
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