The fun part: still 22 people that voted someone else than Ron Paul. O my, the USA is screwed  |
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Ending [Krugman] here. First start with your definition of 'inflation'. In my perspective, that would be the increase of the money supply (in the broad sense).
And how would you measure it? I guess I am condemned to believe the official data from Central Banks. Yes, but they're not providing data about inflation by your definition. They're just measuring price changes of various goods. I was asking, how would you measure increase of the money supply. The ECB publishes various data on money supply (such as M3). |
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Ending [Krugman] here. First start with your definition of 'inflation'. In my perspective, that would be the increase of the money supply (in the broad sense).
And how would you measure it? I guess I am condemned to believe the official data from Central Banks. |
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An attempt to solve the problem with printing money.
Even there is no problem, [...] Ending [Krugman] here. First start with your definition of 'inflation'. In my perspective, that would be the increase of the money supply (in the broad sense). |
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Is this as bad as it sounds?
That money sure isn't going into investments in the private sector. Does not bode well. |
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America is going down the tubes.
RP can fix it
What's there to discuss?
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Can't drop, I just bought  |
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The new Android dongle with HDMI connection looks quite promising (bargain).
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The fun part: the more new entries in this thread, the more inflow of money in BTC |
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Out of curiosity why isn't there a mechanism to write two wallet.dats atomically (both have to succeed), one to the [%APPDATA%|$user]\bitcoin directory, and another to a usb key or alternate drive?
or even to -dumpwallet after each transaction on the client?
What's the problem with making the backup yourselves? It's the same as loosing your Outlook inbox or, worse, your personal documents and pictures. Backups are essential. |
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Let it go to $3. At that time, I have enough cash from selling Ebay stuff to join the Year of the Dragon  |
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MtGox is not Bitcoin. If MtGox is hacked, people are buying their bitcoins anywhere else. There are dozens of platforms there.
Even if all coins from MtGox would be stolen or even destroyed, bitcoins will be even more expensive after that!
+1 If MtGox would be hacked, I would be first in line to scoop up as many Bitcoins for $0.01 as possible. Mr Buttcoin reminds me of people waving red flags on the first railroads. Afraid of advances in technology. |
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Seven pages(!) in today's Dagens Næringsliv, the largest financial newspaper in Norway. The journalist has done good research and even visited the European Bitcoin conference in Prague. Very good article. Paper only, unfortunately. One of five headlines on the front page.
Scan the pages, OCR, translate via Babblefish and get back to us |
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Juggling with numbers can lead to more interesting thoughts. We know that in 2033, no additional BTC will be available. Let's assume that it will take up to 2033 to spread BTC: *to the entire population of 6 billion people; or *in exchange of the global total money supply of USD 60 trillion To make our life simple, we assume that the annual factor and the base number (people, money supply) remain constant. The graphs are inserted below.  people money supplyThe factor [people] is 3,6 (remarkable close to phi), the factor [money supply] is 7,8. Of course, if the total time frame is less than 2009 to 2033, the factor to be used would have to be higher to meet the target. An interesting aspect is the nature of these graphs, or better to say, the math behind it. The graphs are build up by assuming a constant factor that increases the total number, but halfway, the same factor is used to decrease the increase (=still growth, but less and less annually until it is a flat line). This is based on the assumption that, at first, there will be a low number of participants/money invested in BTC. Moving on, the numbers explode after which the increase will slow down again. Since it follows from the formula, it is no surprise that the biggest increase is made around 2019-2020. It is clear that if you compress the total time frame to, let's say, 2022, the biggest increase would be round and about 2016. That's not the interesting part. The interesting part (as far as I am concerned) is that, on the basis of these premises, the number will be approximately 10% of the total number to be reached just when the increase is at its maximum velocity. Above, I already presented the link to a study showing that, for an idea to be accepted, a critical mass of 10% (or 13%) of all people should accept the idea. If the critical mass is reached, the rest will follow as a rule.  spread of new ideaThe curve used in that study aligns with the formula used in my numbers-juggling-exercise. First the slow start, then the increase, then the top and the following decrease. To end this pick-your-number-and-base-your-argument-on-that-number exercise, it seems fair to assume that the actual factor of the BTC spread (in terms of people or committed cash) is way higher than the numbers in my projection. At least, in this stage. It remains to be seen whether the actual factor remains very high over the course of the next years. Someone else may calculate the actual average factor to project the predicted date on which the critical mass of 10% will be reached. It could be a lot sooner than we think, prone to error as we humans are in understanding the exponential factor. However, another thing to ponder is the known history of inventions, dating back to the 19th century. Usually, an invention lingers for about 10-15 years, before it suddenly gets adopted massively. Nowadays we see shorter time frames (Facebook, Youtube etc), but I think it is reasonable to assume that Bitcoin will stay in the dark for at least two more years before taking off. Buyin' time  |
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3.
Imagine that 6 billion people on earth all have 1 BTC in average to let their whole economy function (USD2,857,142/BTC).
You may want to rethink that. Put forward differently: 1. 60 trillion USD of money to make the world economy function 2. replace global money supply with 21 mio BTC 3. same world economy but with BTC = $2.8mio/BTC |
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Did I just see people in favor of centralized control of a fiat currency posting on a bitcoin forum?
What the hell are you even doing here?
It's called exchange of ideas. And yes, better in plain view without a debt-element than the current system. But indeed, letting the market sort it out itself would be my favorite. |
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Declaring BTC illegal will make it many times more interesting to people. Everything the government forbids, increases -fold in value (like drugs).
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I do not see an option on your website to donate some BTC for good cause  |
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To put things into perspective, a table of values (with 21 million BTC). economy size| $1 | | $10 | | $100 | | $1,000 | | $10,000 | | $100,000 | | $1,000,000 | | $10,000,000 | | $100,000,000 | | $1,000,000,000 | | $10,000,000,000 | | $100,000,000,000 | | $1,000,000,000,000 | | $10,000,000,000,000 | | $100,000,000,000,000 |
| value of 1 BTC| $0.00 | | $0.00 | | $0.00 | | $0.00 | | $0.00 | | $0.00 | | $0.05 | | $0.48 | | 4.76 | | $47.62 | | 476.19 | | 4,761.90 | | 47,619.05 | | 476,190.48 | | 4,761,904.76 |
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the global money supply is estimated at some USD 70 trillion. Let's assume 60 trillion for the sake of argument. This money changes hands daily to support the world economy. 1. 6 billion people in the world. Average of USD 10,000 for each person in the world. Compared with the maximum of BTC = average of 0,0035 BTC for each person in the word  2. If only 0.001% of all trade in the world would be done via BTC, that would replace the function of USD 600,000,000 of currency (approx USD28/BTC). Imagine if that portion would be 1%. 3. Imagine that 6 billion people on earth all have 1 BTC in average to let their whole economy function (USD2,857,142/BTC). 4. There is a high probability that the spreading of BTC will follow the classic rules of adoption of new ideas (provided it overcomes the current technical hurdles). On average, if 13% uses BTC, the rest will follow without a doubt. Background: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovationshttp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/07/110725190044.htm (we just need to believe in BTC's success hard enough) 5. Hence, it's always hoarding time.... |
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