Okay, wow, this should have been the headline in at least a couple of news reports then. Saw this yesterday myself as was on Twitter working (heh) and everyone was sharing the news about 30% income tax (which seems now clarified to be profits) but the idea that this doesn't seem to be nett profit but individual asset profit/loss calculation, with no loss offset benefit, that's pretty crazy. Didn't know someone in Europe tried to do this too.

That'd be the gambling equivalent of calculating profit from every type of game, at every different casino. Imagine losing 10 hands of blackjack and winning just the one, and still paying tax on that single win.

It's definitely not going to pass in this shape.

Aye, sadly, I actually stayed up for a little while (game was just past midnight for me) but as soon as the hosts went 2 goals up, it was never going to be a miracle. I still think it was a value bet though, especially as Rondon as I said seemed on fire, while Suarez and Cavani looked tepid, but these precise players made such a turnaround of form in the game.

I do like high odds, and they do come along quite a lot, but this thread is for what I'd consider value bets -- so I do need to know a bit about the bet, and I'm not very familiar outside of English football, or European...

But no, even favourites can have good value at times (like Argentina 2/1 last night), although I like longshot bets that shouldn't be. For example, a league leader like PSG, Bayern, City, head-to-head against midtable teams they don't have such a high win percentage as odds suggest. City is my favourite victim because of their league dominance, it's absolutely normal to see teams have 10/1 or 20/1 even odds of winning against them -- but in reality in the past 5/6 seasons their H2H record is absolutely not relative to that.

This is also looking to be my worst season so far since I started this thread. It's more than half gone and barely in the black It could very well be my first nett loss season actually. But as the point of this thread is value, the units I've gained simply by picking the bookie with the best odds will always be positive.

 

Well, this is what I get for not being superstitious, sharing my bet and seeing Australia throw away the lead twice. They were confident and good at the beginning but so many wasteful chances and credit to Oman for playing football despite having no chance of qualifying in the group.

But the real bummer for me was Venezuela -- going down early and then just never really looking like they'll ever find a way back. Gonna have to watch some of the games on replay, the stats show exciting numbers!

@Jackl87 Yeah, I saw the match too, and also the one against Tsitsi, which was apparently the one where he later said the "low IQ" comment about the crowd (as auolain helped me figure out why the crowd were so against him in the first place). I mean, they were cheering him mostly when he talked about tennis anyway, and anyone who sees how Nadal/Fedex endear themselves to the crowd understand why they're loved, so clearly it's highly logical that you reap what you sow -- if crowd support really is what you want.

I see teens in football deal with worse abuse than that. Like actual hate speech and weapons thrown at them. If you're 25, you really have to have thicker skin. Be like Ronaldo, Suarez, who love being villains and get even more motivated by being villains, and LOVE riling the neutral crowds up.

@Juggy777 Anyway, just really hope he doesn't mean what he sounds like he's saying (rather play in Moscow than in another Open). Cause I'm really beginning to enjoy these guys playing. We already are in danger of missing big talents because of vaccine rules, we don't need another one to ragequit haha.

Some regrets here as I've actually been doing quite well in World Cup qualifiers but didn't post anything. Since I can afford some breathing space, I thought tonight's ripe for another upset. We've got Uruguay who're still in a fight to qualify, and after Suarez helped break their awful streak (I should know, always losing picking them), they're the bookie favourites. Venezuela are mathematically in with a chance too though, so I'm counting on Rondon to continue his fine national form and get a couple of goals tonight.

100 units at Sportsbet on Venezuela to WIN vs Uruguay @10.90. Other odds: 9.80
Units advantage: 110

AFC World Cup being as kind to me as Concacaf so far. That's 2 accas I've gobbled up in a week featuring favourites, just thought I'd like to share today's ones as they're pretty special to me for Minamino getting on the scoresheet -- it's bad luck to show cards on the final leg perhaps but even if Australia don't win I'll get this back as a freebet so I'm okay


@3meek Colombia's only recent win was against Honduras so yeah, not sure why no one wouldn't fancy Argentina at 2/1. I'm definitely going to poke around them on a fresh acca if Australia win!

@slow_death: Seems ripe for the picking, I'm def throwing a bet on Venezuela

Personally, really happy for Neco Williams and Nat Phillips. Loan move means we're not quite ready to offload them, and they get all the football they need in Championship with pretty good teams (Fulham and Bournemouth). Everton look possibly stronger with their acquisitions, Lamps will not find it as "easy" as Chelski though.

surprise move for me most of all was van de Beek though, but hope we get to see him play more as a result. Criminal, really, the way United and Chelsea brought stars to warm up benches...

Hmm, so I just discovered Medvedev's press conference. I was JUST thinking he'd realised he needed to stop whining and play good tennis, but then he's gone and done himself a huge "shoot yourself in the foot".

So the crowd's against you, after you called them low IQ, and after calling umpire a small cat (did he forget they actually cheered for him when he changed his tune and talked about the match instead of the crowd?). I really don't get why you expect a crowd to love you when you've not shown them any? And then the worst for an athlete is to then blame them and his nationality for not winning.

He needs to grow some balls and win the next GS. Or be Suarez and let the crowd's boos drive him on!

I say this because I do want these young guys to start playing and not ragequit haha.

Another seemingly random outcome to my eyes, but I did count on them both not making their spreads even if they won, so took a nice slice of the freebet action on jeremypwr's prediction thread, so a happy camper here!


A person of culture. I have something of a similar nature here, except that because of my lasting impression, I make an occasional bet on the country the girl came from (New Zealand) on football. It was a weird period where Flight of the Conchords was running, and I had a personal run-in with the prime minister too heh.

1. Millwall - 2:1
2. Swansea - 2:1
3. Cardiff - 1:2
4. Derby - 0:1
5. Sheffield Utd - 1:2
6. Blackpool - 2:1
7. Draw - 1:1
8. Draw - 1:1

Sportsbet username: Sojourner

Late to the party, as usual, if you haven't sold anything since then, I expect you must already be sitting on a pretty nest egg. Reading all your posts now, so if you do exit in one or two years, you'd have waited an entire decade. Also found it interesting you only looked into alts in 2021 -- glad you missed out on the alt exodus in 2017 huh?

I actually only ever met 2 people who exited, both in 2017, pre ATH. They never came back, to my knowledge, good for them. I don't ever see myself leaving, but if I do, I'll be sure to add another thread here for posterity.

Game 1: 12' SPFC 2-0

^Nadal will be happy at the prospects of #22 on the grounds he loves so much. Fedex was joking that some months ago he and Nadal were joking about being on crutches. This is truly the era of the super athlete, shelf life no longer limited to their 30s!

^^Ouch on Fluminense but yet another win for rando Brazilian bettor... care to share just how many bets get processed from out of there Steve?

Looks like the Bitcoin special on $70k for Lunar New Year also won't hit. Curious to see which special's going to be next. We haven't quite given up on 100,000 now, have we?

Not confident enough myself to bet on a bull run extending past the one year cycle we've been getting used to, but will hardly complain if this turns out to be true. External economics will always be something we're forced to deal with (most of us anyway) and that will at the very least put our Bitcoin personal targets on the back burner. I do agree Fed rate on its own doesn't affect Bitcoin but the same institutional plugging out of risky assets will also plug out of Bitcoin.

P.S. Just noticed your signature. Thoughts on Substack?

@slaman yep, it really looks like Egypt and Senegal are peaking and there were the top 2 pre-tournament favourites, so bookies did seem to know what they were doing, especially as Cameroon was a 4th favourite too! And yes, if Egypt and Senegal progress, they both meet in the final.

@leea: nice going on the freebet! I have 0.75 mbtc cash so far and since Senegal got their win, I should see another freebet today. I have been reckless with them putting all in, but might split my winnings today instead to try and get all 1mbtc back. Let's hope we both get our teams in the final so one of us walks away with the outright win!

@casper: I certainly hope it gets better and better from now on. 4 more matches, and
Sadio Mane actually played last night, full game, even got an assist. That guy man.

I didn't think so either, and I haven't been following this closely enough but it does seem apparent that US is ready to lay down the "mother of all sanctions" today -- and both parties seem to be on the same page here. Been seeing language being used of "Russian sons in body bags" even, which I wouldn't have expected under the current regime.

I always say necessity if the mother of invention. Iranians quickly became power users of Bitcoin once they had to learn to live under banking sanctions. I wouldn't be surprised if the same were to happen to this "Eastern bloc".

Everyone happy with Sweden win? Can't say they don't deserve it, the way they upset France. Final moment penalty made the difference in the end. 20 years since the last win apparently?

And Denmark, the favourite for gold, least took home a consolation medal.


A girl from my village (few hundred population) won silver in Olympics diving a few years ago, and that was a total mystery, even for us. We don't have any diving pools, she was practising in a regular swimming pool with theoretical knowledge of what to do in the real stadium, we aren't even known as swimmers, but of course, she hasn't been able to replicate her success SINCE getting a sporting scholarship to go train where there is a pool!

Well, yeah, meanwhile, we've got the Scandinavians slowly going towards regarding Covid as a non-threat to society and the UK also just easing down on everything (but noting that at least in the former case, supposedly it's because hospitalisations are very low and no longer a burden, partly in any case because of high vaccinated population in the cities).

I always tell my kids: my house my rules, so yeah, can't argue if France insists, it'd be much better for everyone if we didn't go and make this any more dramatic than it already has been. If he won't play, he won't play. Shame for us if not though.


This is precisely why I want Djokovic to play, to see these 3 guys (and I can't help but hope Tsitsi finds his break) rule. Medvedev outclassed every opponent on his serve in AO, but that's nullified with clay.

Again, I'm not sure the purpose should ever be to profit from Bitcoin, but simply to protect against inflation in the long term. Of course, it's nice to put a balance sheet in Bitcoin and then get double, triple, or more the value in a few years' time but the purpose really is to ensure you still have the same spending power -- be it as business capital, or simply to pay wages. You're almost guaranteed to be in a weaker position year on year if you keep in fiat. Bitcoin, up and down, but certainly over the long term, enough to overcome inflation.

So it's less about holding I feel, and less about profits (although with the likes of Saylor it's hard to tell what he wants or is attempting unless you're happy to take his word if not his actions).

Yeah, that's unfair on him. This wasn't about the Russian throwing the game, it's about Nadal reminding everyone that today, the modern great athlete ages like fine wine. Imagine, how good can all the current crop of 20+ year olds will be after a decade of experience?


Ash Barty fine, was a clear favourite, but I think getting Nadal right is worth some gold (given his age and the rise to prominence of so many young ones). So you deserve every pat on the back for that.

I'm really looking forward to see Djoko get in he next GS because someone needs to match Nadal's 21 now. I know I've said so many times Fedex has his last shot but I definitely want to see a swansong. All the elite athletes of 20+ GS in one tournament