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5421  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: btccharts.com on: June 25, 2012, 02:38:27 PM
No one care about Cavirtex? It's down since couple days. I can't load data from server, looks like my server IP is blocked. I've send mail to them, but no answer so far. So if anyone is interested getting this back - admin@cavirtex.com

Other thing, mail from my hosting provider: "On the evening of Tuesday, June 26 2012 between the hours of 12AM and 6AM Eastern Standard Time (GMT-5), BitsForCoins will be conducting emergency maintenance on the host node that provides your service.  Lasting for approximately 20 minutes [...]"

Hmmm... I wonder if it's really going to be EST or if they really meant EDT since that's what we're on now.
5422  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Reducing the wealth concentration of Bitcoin on: June 25, 2012, 02:29:42 PM
Do you mean to tell me that bitcoin will drop below the 1 Dollar mark again Huh??

Well announcing you have 50K BTC you need to sell within 2.69% of current price to break even certainly wasn't the smartest plan.
5423  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If god is a mathmatical formula, is it safe to say that Bitcoin is backed by god on: June 25, 2012, 02:25:30 PM
Math is just a subset of language.

When people say "Bitcoin is backed by mathematics", they don't mean the language.

You are talking about "representation", but I think the topic is "form". Mathematics as a language is just a projection of forms that exist regardless. These forms, or let's say mathematical facts, are what we are talking about. Cryptography would work the same it does now if all humanity disappeared, and even if we have never existed, it would function the same.

However though, Bitcoin's security depends on scarcity of computing power and some assumptions of human behavior, which is why the claim "Bitcoin is backed by mathematics" is ultimately wrong anyway.


While there are physical forms within the human brain that map pretty well to mathematics, there is no direct evidence outside of our minds of the existence of mathematical forms.  We have been pretty successful at predicting the behavior of nature with mathematics, but old theories since disproven successfully predicted a subset of natural behavior as well.

Can you show me how nature uses cryptography outside of humanity?  If it isn't used by nature apart from humans, how can if function at all without humans?

I agree there is more to bitcoin backing than math.  Physics and psychology are certainly involved.
5424  Economy / Securities / Re: Apple shares on: June 25, 2012, 01:57:36 PM
I wouldn't try this without a bot to maintain your spread close to the actual price.  If AAPL moves hard and you're slow to respond you will lose out.  If this happens enough times you'll end up with half as many bitcoins as if you had just sold for USD and bought BTC.
5425  Economy / Long-term offers / Re: Bitcoin Savings and Trust on: June 25, 2012, 01:51:33 PM
C'mon people, how much of a spike could severely affect a person who is in USD for maybe a few hours at a time? Even the June 2011 spike wasn't moving that fast.



I'll just leave this here:


Yes, those are $3-5/BTC hourly candles (10-16.7% asssuming a $30 base).
5426  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: June 25, 2012, 01:35:56 PM
as I predicted here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=89759.0

The bubble is over, expect another slouch to $3 and also expect the reward halving in dec to have no effect on the price.


I don't think this latest rise was strictly due to speculation. I would be very surprised if we fell below 6.25

6 is likely, 5.5 is possible, 3 will become possible if 5.5 falls.

Also, bit-pay was dumb enough to announce they have 50,000 BTC to sell over the next few days from BFL preorders.  Expect retreating bids.
5427  Economy / Economics / Re: Clarke and Dawe - The European Crisis on: June 25, 2012, 04:41:18 AM
Jk everyone, chill out.  I'm American, so I'm no better Wink.  Likely a worse combination of criminal, racist, and genocide perpetrator.  Well all have out history and very little of it is pretty.

Really, I'm sorry if I offended anyone.  I was just trying to demonstrate the common ancestry between Aussies and Brits, but I did it in a very unsavory way.  Please forgive my indiscretion.
5428  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 10000 BTC for a pizza? on: June 25, 2012, 03:21:10 AM
How many toppings did he get?

Second result after searching for pizza:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=137.0

It was actually 2 pizzas.
5429  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Survey Initial Results on: June 25, 2012, 03:07:02 AM
Quote
That wouldn't be too hard to set up, but I'm not sure the community would donate enough to make enough calls for it to have an impact.  However, I suppose the callers would at least be brought in.

Unfortunately, I think that the number of Bitcoin users is too small to be able to get a decent sample out of the general population without making millions of calls...

That's not the point.  The point is to spread awareness and instill a sense of loss caused by not already knowing about bitcoin.  In fact millions of calls would be ideal.
5430  Economy / Economics / Re: Forbes 400? BTC Top 10? on: June 25, 2012, 03:01:23 AM
Hmm... all the transactions to that number 1 account has ever made can be found just using that 160hash address in block explorer. I don't want to seem as if I want to find out who it is - but its just interesting to see how it is a relatively new account, and how the flow of Bitcoins increased gradually over a short period of time.

http://blockexplorer.com/address/1DkyBEKt5S2GDtv7aQw6rQepAvnsRyHoYM

Although, if an account as such just keeps constantly accumulating a large amount of Bitcoins, and it just sits there not moving, wouldn't that have a negative impact in the economics? Wouldn't it technically be considered dead or lost money in a way?

It would drive down supply, but it would not be considered dead.  As long as funds are flowing into it you know the person controlling it may very well spend some.
5431  Economy / Economics / Re: Clarke and Dawe - The European Crisis on: June 25, 2012, 02:57:57 AM
lol, let's imagine the british didn't have their own kind of humour.

Aussies... Descendants of British Criminals

FTFY Tongue
5432  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 25, 2012, 02:26:34 AM
miscreanity, thank you for writing down this awesome analysis. If someone made a "gems of bitcointalk" compilation, this would have to be included.

Shh, I like my head normal size Smiley

Finally, there seems to be some cognitive dissonance in saying that the investment banks are bankrupt, yet they have to be aggressive to compete with other institutions.  The community banks who aren't touching derivatives are doing just fine, thanks.

Yes, I was referring to major banks and competition in kind. There's a glass ceiling for classes of business and government just as there is one (or several in certain cases) for individuals. To paraphrase what Jim Sinclair has said over the years: what the markets don't tear down, litigation will.

I agree, many small banks will survive and even thrive. They can adapt much more quickly and have to act more responsibly for various reasons. I don't expect that traditional services will be the as common, so they may become virtually unrecognizable to what exists today; potentially as utilities that work behind the scenes like sewage and water treatment.

That gets into what I believe will become part of the foundation for a planet-wide form of intelligent life, with cryptocurrencies giving rise to a powerful decision-making system...

Oh, hey cypherdoc - I hope you're ready to gloat for about a week. I still wouldn't trade these markets even if my last name were Bernanke. Hope you keep stops in place to next month Smiley

So yeah, the inflation/deflation question boils down to what the politicians do.  I tend to believe politicians don't like to share their power, thus my deflationary views.

I'll be gloating with cypherdoc.  I put my (tiny compared to cypher's) shorts back on before the latest drop after hopping off near the top bottom. (top for the short ETF, bottom for the market)
5433  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 10000 BTC for a pizza? on: June 25, 2012, 01:11:05 AM
Anyone think an investment in litecoin is worth it?

Totally, I have about 140 that I'd part with.  PM me with an offer.  Last I looked, they were worth about 8/10th of a bitcoin, but it would take at least 0.5 Bitcoin for me to fire up my litecoin client and resync.
5434  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: If god is a mathmatical formula, is it safe to say that Bitcoin is backed by god on: June 25, 2012, 01:07:28 AM
Rene Descartes is the mathematical philosopher who in addition to giving us Cartesian coordinates also wrote:

"I think therefore I am".

Interestingly his view on the validity of the input of his senses actually appealed to the existence of god: (Wikipedia)

"Descartes also wrote a response to skepticism about the existence of the external world. He argues that sensory perceptions come to him involuntarily, and are not willed by him. They are external to his senses, and according to Descartes, this is evidence of the existence of something outside of his mind, and thus, an external world. Descartes goes on to show that the things in the external world are material by arguing that god would not deceive him as to the ideas that are being transmitted, and that God has given him the "propensity" to believe that such ideas are caused by material things."

He basically used god's existence as an axiom and the validity of his senses is inferred as a corollary.

He did live in the early 17th Century, so this might have been to appease the very powerful Roman Catholic church. You can imagine he was quite a radical thinker for his time.


If you were to use Descartes's philosophy, not only are bitcoins backed by god but every image you see, perfume you smell and the texture of everything you touch are also backed by god.


I have a maths degree from Cambridge University and have thus have seen hundreds of mathematical proofs. I can honestly say that not a single one of them started with an axiom:
1) Suppose there is an omnipotent, omniscient being god, which we will call G.




Interesting though that Descartes asserted that there is essentially an absolute chasm between mental and physical reality which leads him to completely contradict himself.

My problem with it is that he assumes all mental activity arises from the will.  Did they not have a concept of the unconscious mind in the 1700s, or does he define will differently than we do today?  I don't know anyone who has complete, intentional control of all their mental activity, although it sounds like it would be nice.
5435  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is NOT a decentralize currency on: June 25, 2012, 12:57:28 AM
Instead of being hostile fcks, you can all educate him. He clearly doesnt understand distribution and decentralization.

What can i expect from bitcoin community?
 Roll Eyes

I don't think I was hostile, and half the posts are trolls talking about pathname conventions.  There is always a few hostile fcks.
5436  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Survey Initial Results on: June 25, 2012, 12:55:39 AM
It's a bit disheartening to see the lack of people who have recently heard about Bitcoin.  The vast majority heard about it more than 1 year ago.  Does that mean that Bitcoin growth is slowing?

I'd say it means most people that frequent these forms are mostly died hard fans that have been here for 1 year +

would be really cool is if someone would do a cold call survey

438 - 257 - 1495
ring.. ring...
Quote
hello?
would you like to take a quick 5 min survey, and make some cash?
sure ok
have you heard about bitcoin
no
awww, sry you cant take this survey,  thank you!
repeat! Endlessly  Cheesy



That wouldn't be too hard to set up, but I'm not sure the community would donate enough to make enough calls for it to have an impact.  However, I suppose the callers would at least be brought in.
5437  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What if you could get paid in Bitcoin? on: June 25, 2012, 12:46:03 AM
I can, and have.  I'm self employed and do computer programming for various clients.  I prefer bitcoin over letting paypal have 3% of giving elance.com 7%.
5438  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin is NOT a decentralize currency on: June 25, 2012, 12:23:58 AM
We're at 9,304,250/21,000,000.

50% of the bitcoins haven't even been mined yet.  There have been several very large coin dumps.  Each time this happens many buyers take control of coins from one seller.

Control of the supply of new currency is unarguably decentralized.  Your buddy Ben and his board of fat cats controls the creation of new USD.  You have nothing to fear but fear itself.  Join us and enjoy the benefits, or walk away and hope you don't regret it.
5439  Economy / Speculation / Re: End of year price prediction on: June 25, 2012, 12:14:59 AM
The recent price rise may be preemptive of the reward dorop. If so I can see the year ending with a speculative bubble.

$12.50.

This is what I don't understand.  The the forecasted price increase come the block halving always seems to be double the *current* price.  A couple months ago it was $10.  Now it's $12.50.  The target keeps moving Sad

And by the time we get there it will be mostly priced in.  There might be a small rise since some people will still be caught unaware, but I don't expect much.
5440  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 25, 2012, 12:02:22 AM
If by banks you mean large investment banks, sure they might be bankrupt.  If by banks you mean small, community banks that are used by 90% of the rural population, then no.  They will be the winners if this ever unwinds (Edit: and bitcoin of course!).  Few people I know will have much sympathy for the urbanites who live in an imaginary world where food comes from the store and the ultimate goal of life is to have more than your neighbor.

Anyway, this argument seems to boil down to whether you believe that the large investment banks will be allowed to continue screwing us, or will finally be forced into bankruptcy.  Yes, they will eventually inflate their bankruptcy away if they are allowed to hold back the economy for a few more decades.  But, if the American people finally get fed up and force the politicians to solve this, we will see the big investment banks defaulting.  We will have a period of deflation, and the well capitalized community banks who are hording cash that is gaining purchasing power will pick up the slack.  A few of them will expand into the urban markets and become the next vampires, but it will be several decades before people forget the lesson.

Finally, there seems to be some cognitive dissonance in saying that the investment banks are bankrupt, yet they have to be aggressive to compete with other institutions.  The community banks who aren't touching derivatives are doing just fine, thanks.
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