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5481  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin's Paypal solution/alternative? on: May 10, 2011, 12:05:41 AM
How does MyBitcoin.com offer recourse for buyers?

Why does Mybitcoin, or anyone, have to offer you recourse?  Bitcoin is cash for the Internet.  Would you walk into a corner store and pay cash for a candy bar?  What is your recourse there?  If the vendor took your money and then told you to buzz off, what would your recourse be?  Call the cops over $1.50?  What would happen, do you think?  In the end, you would be out your money and a candy bar, and would simply never trust that vendor again.  Don't send bitcoins to untrusted vendors.  If you get screwed, tell people about it, and name names.  Sometimes the risks of getting defrauded is just part of the costs of doing business.  There are steps you can take to limit those risks, but none of those things are intergrated into Bitcoin, nor should they be.
5482  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Why doesn't the block reward decrease continuously? on: May 09, 2011, 10:31:23 PM
On the day before the reward decreases from 50 to 25, there will be approx 7200 new coins generated out of a total of 10.5 million. Less than 0.08% extra. On the following day there will be approx 3600 new coins generated out of a total of 10.5 million. Less than 0.04% extra.

The change from 0.08% to 0.04% per day won't upset the markets, and the miners will have known about the coming change for ages, and will have factored it into their plans and budgets.

This is not something to sweat about.

Halving the reward is the equivalent of having half the gold content in your ore disappearing over night. This will cause most miners to become unprofitable, so block generation could crawl to almost a halt, making the next 2016 blocks very long and painful.

Doubtful.  At worst, half the miners will give up because they suddenly became unprofitable, and the interval between blocks would stretch to 20 minutes.
5483  Economy / Economics / Re: BitCoin Stages before getting system dependant on: May 09, 2011, 10:27:00 PM
Quote
And all this is asuming people will pay the fee which is optional...

Assuming miners will add those transaction to the block at their cost? I don't think so.

Most will not, but we can expect that there will always be the altruistic miner to catch a block every now and again.  There are other motivations for certain groups of miners besides the direct profit from mining fees.  For example, I posted at length in another thread, my "Wal-Mart" theory.  Wherein if Wal-MArt ever starts taking Bitcoin as a major currency, Wal-Mart itself has a strong economic encentive to make certain that their own transactions, which would be a huge ongoing volume, are processed quickly.  The cheapest way for Wal-Mart to do this would to either build a mining cluster of their own, or directly sponsor a professional mining company to act in their behalf.  In part, because their direct competitors could do so and intentionally exclude Wal-Mart's own transactions as a matter of course, whether they paid a fee or not.  At this point, adding in free transactions (that are not from a competitor) is trivial, and becomes a public relations bonus.
5484  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin's Paypal solution/alternative? on: May 09, 2011, 10:13:46 PM
There doesn't need to be a solution, because you don't really understand the problem yet.  Even so, much of what you are concerned about is negated by MyBitcoin.com's system.

Let the buyer beware.
5485  Economy / Economics / Re: with difficulty rising, is our only hope the market? on: May 09, 2011, 09:42:33 PM
In fact, the difficulty has doubled 16 times since Jan 2009.  If it doubles another 16 times, we would be around 7,187,333,120 difficulty (if not more) and roughly 1,113,784,320 TeraHashes per second to get there.  I don't consider this likely, as I expect the growth to mute as Bitcoin's market matures; but I would consider at least two more doubling to be likely. 

The question is, how much hashing power is enough to secure the system?  That's not really an answerable question, but I'd have to guess that having a hashing power in excess of the total power of the top 20 known supercomputers is a safe goal.

Wouldn't the difficulty continue to increase as long as hardware continues to improve?

Yes, but the hardware improves for the common user at the same pace as the massive attackers' does.  There will always be new supercomputers being built, each faster than the one just before, so the happy target goal is always moving anyway.
5486  Economy / Economics / Re: with difficulty rising, is our only hope the market? on: May 09, 2011, 09:33:55 PM

Always account for the possibility of more efficient miners coming out.  This was a different game when we only had CPU miners.  At the current price, difficulty has a lot of room to go up and still have a lot of people be profitable, especially gamers who already have the equipment.

True.  And dedicated ASICs would move the bar yet again.
5487  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Top500 Supercomputers on: May 09, 2011, 09:32:10 PM
I'm sure that all that processing power that is contributed to folding@home makes the contributers feel good and a part of something, but what has come of that project?

http://folding.stanford.edu/English/Papers



Any other questions?

Actually yes.  Although I'm impressed that all that research has it's basis in the Folding@Home project, I did notice that most of that same research were subjects with real economic value.  Said another way, Folding@Home seems to be used as a means for research companies to get research done on the cheap.  If the Folding@Home contributiers knew that they were being exploited for the profit of others, particularly "big pharma" would they still participate?
5488  Bitcoin / Press / Re: Bitcoin press hits, notable sources on: May 09, 2011, 09:25:37 PM
Anyway, no sign of a Forbes rally due to the print version. Bruce, I'm still waiting for your 5$/btc predicted this morning  Wink

Really?  Did Bruce really predict that there would be such a rapid response from the remainder of the Forbes readership that actually reads print?
5489  Economy / Economics / Re: with difficulty rising, is our only hope the market? on: May 09, 2011, 09:23:10 PM
Mining will face its destiny when the calendar shows 2013.

Until then, just mine when it's profitable and stop when it isn't. Like any sane person would. But remember current price is paid by investors, keep BTC only if you're willing to gamble like they are.

Much less than you'd think.  Difficulty increases will be a much bigger factor before 2013 than the reward dropoff.  It's equivalent to the difficulty doubling.  The difficulty has doubled many times in the last 6 months.  It will double many times before then.  Sure, that extra doubling will suck, but it's a lot smaller than what is coming up with more miners coming online profitably as word continues to gets out.

In fact, the difficulty has doubled 16 times since Jan 2009.  If it doubles another 16 times, we would be around 7,187,333,120 difficulty (if not more) and roughly 1,113,784,320 TeraHashes per second to get there.  I don't consider this likely, as I expect the growth to mute as Bitcoin's market matures; but I would consider at least two more doubling to be likely. 

The question is, how much hashing power is enough to secure the system?  That's not really an answerable question, but I'd have to guess that having a hashing power in excess of the total power of the top 20 known supercomputers is a safe goal.
5490  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Top500 Supercomputers on: May 09, 2011, 09:08:17 PM
I'm sure that all that processing power that is contributed to folding@home makes the contributers feel good and a part of something, but what has come of that project?

Bitcoin, on the other hand, has tangible benefits for both the community and the contributer.  It is no shock to me at all that Bitcoin's total power leapfrogged right past them.
5491  Economy / Economics / Re: Has anyone else thought about the role that GPU makers have in the BTC economy? on: May 09, 2011, 08:57:33 PM


Those who hear the GPU manf plans before the public have an important advantage. you could see a group build up around the manufacturers that have access to newer technologies and trends than others. this is an unfair advantage and I don't see it being controlled unless there is some kind of authority (agh!) to control the dissemination of information and technology.

The world is full of unfair advantages.  This isn't a Bitcoin issue.
5492  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: bitcoin broken? on: May 09, 2011, 07:19:20 PM
And the confidence in the Bitcoin system increases by one Brownie point.
5493  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: [RFC] New TX fee: 0.0005 BTC on: May 09, 2011, 07:05:49 PM

This is just the default ruleset.

Miners are free to choose their own rules.  I believe luke-jr's pool requires all TX's to have a fee, if an extremely minimal one.

And, last I heard, ArtForz's mining cluster is set to accept all free transactions regardless of the standard blocksize limit for free transactions, so it all evens out in the end.

My opinion is that the rule should be changed to drop the minimum fee in the default client and set back the minimum free transaction as well.  The massive growth we have seen recently has moved these limits from really tiny amounts to non-trivial limits, and the growth isn't likely over.
5494  Economy / Economics / Re: Has anyone else thought about the role that GPU makers have in the BTC economy? on: May 09, 2011, 06:59:47 PM
It won't. More hashing power means higher difficulty, not more bitcoins (except in the very short term and we're talking <.01% increase compared to the stock now) or lower price.

Are you quite sure?

We are quite sure that more hashing does not lead to more bitcoins in the long run.  We are also quite sure that the market is a self balancing thing, and if there is a profit to be made on hardware arbitrage then someone is going to try it.  I doubt that it would ever be significant enough of a problem to really impact the Bitcoin economy once it is big enough that hardware manufactures actual are tweaking their products for hashing performance.
5495  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: bitcoin broken? on: May 09, 2011, 06:55:50 PM
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Protocol_specification#tx

how are you not sure that the TxIn is not taken out from a transaction and put in to another? is this a flaw?
or is there some kind mecanisme that prevent that?
a simple attack scenario:
1. put a lot of your clients on the network(with different IPs). so you are sure that you can isolate another client.
2. when the isolated client makes a Tx it transmits it to you.
3. with the Tx you extract the TxIns and puts them in a new Tx, that sends it all to you, you can do that because there is no protection.
4. wait for it to be included in a block.
5. PROFIT! Smiley

is this possible? it is a BIG BIG flaw if its real!

Sad

Try it, and you will find that it doesn't work in practice, even if it is theoreticly possible.  Most likely you won't even be able to isolate a client in order to actually steal from it's transactions in the start.  In any case, this is an attack upon a particular user of Bitcoin, not a flaw in the system itself.  This kind of theft attack would only affect one user.

As you describe it, the modified transaction would fail a validity check anyway because the transaction must be hashed as a whole after being 'signed' by the sender's private key, which you don't have.  If you cannot sign the modified transaction, the transaction would fail on that point.
what i can read from the source and the wiki is:
not the whole transaction that is signed. Sad only the TxIns.

its like signing "i would like to give some btcs away"


Hmmm, I see what you are saying.  Good eye.  This might be a possible exploit, indeed.  You deserve kudos if this is true.  This could be fixed by requiring that the transaction as a whole be signed by the first input private key.  This would still require absolute isolation to work consistantly, but might work often enough by forcing a double spend type event to be a worthwhile criminal endeavor.

Gavin, thoughts?
5496  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: bitcoin broken? on: May 09, 2011, 06:28:02 PM
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Protocol_specification#tx

how are you not sure that the TxIn is not taken out from a transaction and put in to another? is this a flaw?
or is there some kind mecanisme that prevent that?
a simple attack scenario:
1. put a lot of your clients on the network(with different IPs). so you are sure that you can isolate another client.
2. when the isolated client makes a Tx it transmits it to you.
3. with the Tx you extract the TxIns and puts them in a new Tx, that sends it all to you, you can do that because there is no protection.
4. wait for it to be included in a block.
5. PROFIT! Smiley

is this possible? it is a BIG BIG flaw if its real!

Sad

Try it, and you will find that it doesn't work in practice, even if it is theoreticly possible.  Most likely you won't even be able to isolate a client in order to actually steal from it's transactions in the start.  In any case, this is an attack upon a particular user of Bitcoin, not a flaw in the system itself.  This kind of theft attack would only affect one user.

As you describe it, the modified transaction would fail a validity check anyway because the transaction must be hashed as a whole after being 'signed' by the sender's private key, which you don't have.  If you cannot sign the modified transaction, the transaction would fail on that point.
5497  Economy / Economics / Re: Has anyone else thought about the role that GPU makers have in the BTC economy? on: May 09, 2011, 06:18:25 PM
Quiet dude!  You're cuttin' into my game!   Wink
5498  Economy / Economics / Re: Why Bitcoin can’t be a currency on: May 09, 2011, 06:15:19 PM
Careful there. You are using the current system (central bank based) as an example of why bitcoin will not have the same problem (different).

Erm no? It's not like there's always been a central bank regulating currency in the entire history and yet we had stable prices. Particularly in USA between 1836 and 1913.

This is because the US monetary system was pegged to a defined weight in gold.  This is not the case anywhere in the world today.
5499  Economy / Economics / Re: with difficulty rising, is our only hope the market? on: May 09, 2011, 06:08:37 PM
maybe you didn't notice that the price per bitcoin also is increasing like crazy.

in the last 3-4weeks difficulty doubled, btc-price tripled,
so mining is even more profitable today, at a higher difficulty, than it was a few weeks ago.

maybe you should do your math again.

i meant that there is no direct correlation between difficulty and price increase.

Um, yes there is; but it's the market price of the bitcoins that drives difficulty later.  Cause and effect.  The rise in the value of the block reward, which is sneaking towards $200 per block, encourages new miners to join the game.  When I got into all this, a block was worth about $1.30.
5500  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Would this be wise? My college life (no I DO NOT LIVE IN A DORM) on: May 09, 2011, 06:04:26 PM
In other words: If you can do something on a shoestring budget in your basement without actually even working for it, then so can almost every other hardware enthusiast on the internet. And as they discover bitcoin mining, they certainly will try. And this will rapidly drive the absolute profitability in to the ground.

Moreover... they'll make the same kind of crap analysis we've seen from many people here (difficulty increasing linearly 2% per month‽‽ How can you read enough to know about difficulty an then completely miss its growth like that?) and they'll keep piling into it even when it's _not_ profitable for them.



You can't know who it's profitable for, or it isn't.  Mining was never profitable for me, and in general I don't, but I can envision conditions that I would mine for short terms.  There are many users who mine in their winter months because the cost of electric is either the main method of heat, and therefore running a miner is just a possible bonus to paying the heat bill; or they functionally have near free electric.
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