It bugs me that I was too early with the final capitulation last week. Now all the signs are the more prevalent. Hitting a low repeatedly in subsequent days without one massive flashcrash with massive volume was a typical for the last one. (Cf. now).

The bottom was 62% of the last stable level (note: fibonacci ratio). If the stability level this time is 640, the bottom would be seen at about 400. Indeed, next week of oscillation full of fear between 400-480 would be perfect for shaking out every single remaining weak hand and pave the way for continued gains (last time chart shown for reference  ):
1 month = +50%
2 months = +100%
3 months = +100%
4 months = +400%
5 months = +1000%.

You are right. The cost to employ a sockpuppet is so little that it does not even count. I had a troll in my thread who admitted that before getting banned  

Facts are that many months of time has passed since November and almost the whole world knows about Bitcoin now (only when you know, you can buy), and it takes on average 12-24 months for people to buy. So just look at an explosive adoption peaking in 12-24 months, which means millions of users this year and 10s of millions next year. Or more. And the absolutely ridiculous number of bitcoins in existence - 11 million, if you discount Satoshi coins and lost coins. For a $500,000, which is nothing, you can buy 1/10,000 of ALL BITCOINS IN EXISTENCE.

So the reason why the price is cheap is: somebody wants to do it, but they cannot coerce people to sell if they believe that it goes to the moon. So they instill as much fear as possible. Pretty well done..   Just remember - you only make money if you BUY in this kind of situations and SELL when it is toppy. Other way round you are sheep, baa baa.

The issue is that your boiling is taking the situation to the opposite direction than where you want it. Sometimes seemingly losing the battle earns you more converts and respect than winning it.

To illustrate, let's assign a number 1-5 to each reader.

"5" means that the reader already idolizes you, and believes what you say blindly.
"4" is that she respects you and is receptive to your facts.
"3" means that she is open to different interpretations and questions your stuff to learn more.
"2" does not believe you or think much of you, or ignores you.
"1" believes you are a kook.

Now, whom should you address? Political parties say that it is best to target the group 3-4. The fanatical supporters support you nevertheless, and the fanatical supporters of the other party won't support you anyway.

In BCT, I try to ignore 1-2 people because they are themselves unwilling to learn, and the discussion level comes down if you fight with them.

This information is so important that I don't think you need to go so verbal against somebody who is seeking the truth, but is just not as far as you in the quest.

Perhaps it is helpful if I share that it took me about 5 years of almost full-time study to de-educate myself from the predominant mindset to something I consider a clean mind. I am only now able to start learning anything. I still get irritated by the undescribable evils that the depopulationists force on us in name of "welfare" and whatnot, and the feeble response of the governed, who do not understand anything, like you said. But attacking people seldom helps. Unless you are searching the very gems, who only thrive when insulted. But if that is the case, do it in your own thread.

- The addresses in the leak contained 0.9 million coins, which agrees well with the general understanding about how much there was at Mt.Gox
- Everybody can check their balance; I haven't heard reports of missing balances, I have heard that the balance has been correct
- Zero balances are omitted, as they are in my "# of bitcoinusers calculation"
- The distribution of coins in the balances (see my analysis upthread) satisfies some intricate statistical requirements that would have been difficult to fake

I am trying to make up something from the current data. But it is hard - Mt.Gox celebrated 1 million users, dataleak revealed 70,000.

Coinbase claims 1 million users, does it also round up with a heavy hand?

How many bitcoins are stored in exchanges and similar services? 3-4 million?

Mt.Gox data shower an average balance of 12 bitcoins. For many, that is not even all, meaning that the actual average is higher. Mt.Gox, because it is an old exchange, probably hosted larger balances than the others, otoh many had withdrawn them due to the problems.

I think the evidence points out to 700k-1M users but would like to hear comments on the methods and not just "voting on the results"

I have a manor that we will develop to be a self-sufficient 5 star Bitcoin conference spa hotel Herzlich willkommen everybody to see the place and stay a few nights starting from approx. August when we get some rooms ready!

I am thinking of perhaps writing a longer post about it, but lets say the ascending order of truthfulness goes like this:

0. Depopulationists. Everything they do is evil and a lie, and the ultimate source is Satan.

1. Statists and criminals. They are wrong and unjust.

2. Libertarians. They are not right, but at least they don't harm others.

3. God's economy. Everything God does is true and if He inspires people, it is also true.

Note that a person can change domain, for example Snowden was working with the depopulationists (0), but decided that it is not fitting and wanted himself and the world to be more free (2). Now he is protected by Russian government (1). Whether Snowden's actions were from the Spirit of God (3) remains to be seen in the next age.

So I understand that you "hate" Chinese as they are statist and infiltrated by NWO. Your level is higher. Did I do sth wrong?

No, you don't

Propagation speed of truthful information and how it replaces the depopulationist lies, similarly discrediting all the depopulationist mindset.

Freedom people are able to conspire in the open, because they do good, whereas depopulationists must conspire in secret, because their actions are bad and are opposed if noticed.

Depopulationists are more stupid because they believe some of their own lies, poison themselves with fluoride, etc.

Because the "elite" (people directly controlled by Satan) consists of a few hundred people max, and the others are only tools for them, they can never be sure to retain control. By taking away the monopoly to generate money, they wither and die. Large arms of executive power such as the U.S. govt may revolt and join us, and several presidents have proposed this and have been assassinated. Every such act heaps ill will towards them and it does not go away with time in the Internet era. Ah, they are almost lost already. Why are we even bothering?

You are right that the depopulationists are utterly evil and are scheming evil things, and try to keep their grip on the armies and institutions of the so-called free world (in reality the least free part of world) so that they can enforce calamities to every thinking person on earth (lead by the same demographic that owns bitcoins). But I think it is a fantasy that bitcoins could be twisted to be net-negative to the freedom of the people, proven as follows:

- If the depopulationists ("TPTB") have enough power to finish off the intelligentsia, they don't need bitcoin to do it. Every totalitarian regime has found a way to quickly sanitize the population, fully without bitcoins, facebooks or anything. Just set quotas for the local psycho-sociopathic sheriff and go.
- If they do not have the power for draconian activities, then targeting bitcoin owners does not give them much, but is a very great thing for the freedom people who get to tighten their ranks and perhaps wake up more and more people down the road.

No matter how I think about it, it looks like that the depopulationists have lost. I will have to write more about it for you to understand it, but currently we should resist them (which unfortunately overtly means resisting the government in many places, because they have usurped the government and lawlessly rule) but not attack openly. It is most important to keep the sustenance for human life - clean water, organic food, basic skills for building shelter, right to bear arms, raise animals, cultivate land, heat your house, etc. The depopulationists try to make it as difficult as possible for people to take care of themselves.

Because hoarders participate in this most valuable service to the community, they deserve the reward. If you are jealous, how about joining us here and now at a reasonable price of $0.82 per share?*


*1 share = all bitcoins existing today divided equally to all people = 1.64mBTC

Thanks. I have seen this in other threads but was too busy to give the credit to where it is due!

Just when I thought the sentiment could not become worse, it does.

Buy when the sentiment is hostile, sell when it is CCMFtodamoon.

Strong buy to bitcoin at 500.

In all seriousness to my astute readers - do you know even one other person in the whole forum who is attacked as systematically using fake identities etc.? Why is my speaking so dangerous; even I don't get it  

I strongly recommend to ignore this troll, but in case you want to read what he has to say, you can also quickly ascertain that everything is pure bullshit, by checking my previous posts where there is nothing about "Finnish elite", "Risto's unsavory businesses" (I closed all my business some time ago) or any of the other strawmen. Admitting the use of multiple accounts and VPN's just to harass me is just sad. How can you win if you declare that you are either a douche or a snitch

The bottom is in when everybody (I'm pointing to oyvinds, who is a reasonable guy) just makes up reasons why the price would fall further, to justify that they are selling out of rational grounds, and not out of FEAR, meanwhile happily ignoring the actual driver behind bitcoin price, which is bitcoin adoption. To keep it as simple as possible, I present only the following figures:

Block 270,000 (2013-11-16) 0.93 million non-dust addresses
Block 290,000 (2014-3-11) 1.34 million non-dust addresses

How can the price go down as bitcoins are being diverted to more and more hands, and the average dollar amount the new hands invest stays constant? Sure it can go on for 1-2 more months (2 months is my guess) or even longer, but the resulting upside will be that much more spectacular.

Wake up to some math now dudes! 

Gambling is so regulated that the answer is zero. Oh sorry 1BTC for wagering that it goes to $1000 before summer 2014 (when we bet it was 400). And I will win another 1BTC if it does not hit 5000 before next summer. I don't remember betting anything else despite talking about it much

Take your accusations to a separate thread. From now on, you are not welcome to this thread, like that troll kkaspar before you was banned from the whole forum. All your posts will be deleted and reported, have a good day!

Actually I am very good at portfolio balancing and scenario thinking.


No it was not about the forecast an sich. Just 2-3 months ago there was this Cult of Super-Exponential Trendline, which also forecasted $1 million this year. The members of that one were never reviled personally just because they believed in the fad for a short time.

It is just that some people are a constant target of attacks, I believe the newbies who find their way here after 4 posts and then attack me are just paid, with the old-timers there is ego conflict. But as is evident if an outside observer reads my posts history, I never go ad hominem. I can avoid the temptation because I am not just naturally very interested in people, rather ideas.


I can sell you puts for $300. Going there is about 1:5 in my opinion, but I don't believe that anything that China does can much change the prospects. USA just ruled positively.

I am always surprised that some people want to sell at the bottoms and buy at the tops. Time after time I say: don't be so stupid to think that they exist. Just buy. Still I am always proven wrong, somehow the low-sellers do exist, and I got to buy back my large short from December at 448.

We need to clarify what constitutes an "address":

- The blockchain has 1.34 million addresses with a balance of BTC0.001 or more.
- It has 29 million addresses with a balance of less than that.
- Empty addresses are not counted because it is not possible, and their presence does not change the equation.

So even though you have used 50 addresses, it is likely that your current balance is spread between 2-4 addresses that cross the 0.001 threshold and several, which are less.

ADD: Even though we must revise the BTCowner estimate down, the growth rate in # of addresses has actually been 24.5% over the last 3.7 months, which is on par with the long-term price trend of 23.5% per month.

I commissioned that commercial video where that screenshot is taken from, and paid about € 1,000 for it. The scene was scripted by myself. I was an actor in that part (in total we had about 6 actors).

The audio was "Moni luulee, että hopeaan sijoittaminen on tätä" (transl. "many believe that investing in silver means THIS") [showing the funny picture] - and then going on to show for about 5 minutes that investing in silver is not the thing depicted in the photo of the funny guy, but a quite normal activity that you can do using your laptop.

If you take a screenshot from an Arnold Schwarzenegger movie and use it as a proof of something he is in his personal life, judging his morality, etc. and he is not qualified to hold a public office, AREN'T YOU JUST DAMN STUPID confusing things?  

And this marks the end of the discussion in this thread. I am painfully aware that trolls are sent to attack me to consume my time so every time I answer, it has to be definite, so that we can move on.

Zapffe, you make your own thread now please, and we get back to TA.

EDIT: Oh man, just looking at that picture I start to remember how fun it was to stage it. Notice especially the vessel in the head (seriously, wtf!), the flowers, and the ugly-shaped Chinese porcelain vase in the corner, with depiction of Mao Tse-Tung meeting Chou En-Lai, with the flag of the PROC clearly visible. If you can do that in all seriousness in your country, the blame is on you, savages