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5521  Economy / Economics / Re: If all of the world's paper currency was replaced... on: May 04, 2011, 11:39:29 PM
I think better way of estimating how much Bitcoin would be worth if it replaced traditional money is to think how many people would use it and how much they would need over a certain period of time(interval between paychecks lets say).

OK, so let's play with some numbers on that basis.

Suppose that 21 million people around the world end up using Bitcoin. Each of them uses it for say 10% of their shopping. Suppose their Bitcoin "float" from paycheck-to-paycheck is $100. Then each Bitcoin will be worth $100.

Suppose that 2.1 million people end up using bitcoin, and each of them only uses it in a very small way (a float of value $50). Each bitcoin only needs to be worth $5 to support this. But if those people also use Bitcoin to stash away savings worth $5000, then each bitcoin needs to be worth $505.

Suppose that 210 million people end up using Bitcoin, with a float of $500 and savings of $10,000. Then each Bitcoin needs to be worth $105,000.

This is just playing with numbers. It's also possible that people will develop lots of forms of credit pegged to bitcoin (though not backed by it), and that will limit the upside to Bitcoin's value.

This is an oversimplification, really.  It doesn't consider the effects of velocity of money on the trade value.  Bitcoin has the potential to have a very high average velocity, as compared to currency fiat currencies.  The effect of a higher velocity is similar to the effects of expansion of credit, both of which temporarily lowers the trade value by increasing the apparent availability of the currency.
5522  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Hand Blown Glass Art on: May 04, 2011, 07:37:02 PM
I'm currently in the process of becoming a glass blowing apprentice pretty soon, I was wondering once I learn this skill in the future if anybody would be interested in buying some hand blown glass art in exchange for BTC. And I mean I'll make whatever your heart desires, not just 1 specific category. I can't make any promises YET but its pretty much a done deal. Thoughts?

I like glass art.  I live in Louisville, Kentucky; which is a glass art city, having at least five independent glassworks that I know of.
5523  Economy / Economics / Re: If all of the world's paper currency was replaced... on: May 04, 2011, 07:22:16 PM
I believe you consistently underestimate the speed of change.

Perhaps I do.
5524  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Necessary protocol improvement; dissent on future mining configuration on: May 04, 2011, 01:03:50 PM
@creighto: Please, let me clarify this debate.

Do you agree that transaction fess will approach the cost of verification?

I don't know what you mean by "cost of verification".

This is the cost to a miner for verifying a transaction. The cost is composed of electricity, and infrastructure, etc. It's a small number, but it's not zero.

I can agree the profit margin on mining will tend toward zero, and if it drops below zero, miners will drop out and the difficulty will stagnate or drop until it's mildly profitable again.  This is the self-balancing process that I was referring to.
 will influence fees to some sort of equilibrium?
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I believe that the desires of users to have their transactions processed quickly will drive a market price for fee paying transactions.  Free transactions are charity, and there is nothing that compells miners to include them at all.

Higher fee will only be processed more quickly if there exists some sort of tiered fee structure distributed amongst miners.

That tiered fee structure does exist already.  It's part of every client at present, and it's why there are 'soft limits' on free transactions.

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If you believe that fees approach the cost of verification then this tiered structure won't exist. Users will just pay the minimum that the miners will accept, which will be not much more than the cost of verification.


I don't know why you don't think that it won't exist.  Users are likely to pay the minimum that miners will accept unless they have some personal reason to pay more for speed of confirmation.  This will only be so if there is significant transaction traffic, and so far there isn't enough to force this issue; even though free transactions can already be delayed.
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I'm with Vandroiy on this. You claim there is no problem to solve. I'm curious to know why you think this?
Yet, we have already seen that transaction fees pop up even long before we approach this limit, even as the very low transaction rates we presently see.  Part of this is likely because there is much more to the transaction fees than just a hard limit.

What it these fees we see now are just a statical anomaly? people are new to this thing and may pay fees for all kinds of irrational (economically speaking) reasons.

It's irrational to assume that this is the case.  Show me the math that implies this and I'm willing to listen.  If you can't show the math, you don't have a case.
5525  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What if receiving payments in bitcoins is made illegal? on: May 04, 2011, 12:48:39 PM
Especially not by an aspiring Joseph Goebbels (Hitler's propaganda chief) such as yourself.

@robm

This is pushing it.  Don't cross this line.

Not sure why. It was a response to a request for censorship and a series of posts showing complete disrespect for anyone elses opinion.
Because you were attacking his character by referencing a Nazi propagandist.  Disrespect for his viewpoints are fine, disrespect for the person is unacceptable behavior.
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It's interesting how freedom of speech so rarely gets a look in these days.
Notice, if you will, that it was just a warning; and you have not been censored so far.  You have a less than a dozen posts on this forum and you are already sideways with part of the existing membership.  That is not a good sign.
5526  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Ubitex: In-person Bitcoin exchange [SERVER UP] on: May 04, 2011, 04:17:59 AM
still broken for me.
The links aren't working. Registration is.

I can't seem to do that either.
5527  Economy / Economics / Re: A modest amount of inflation should be part of bitcoin on: May 04, 2011, 04:13:15 AM
  I do know that current system has proven extremely volatile.


Only for the moment.  Stability comes with market maturity.

Sure, agreed. But it is a small market, compared to the USD/EUR/JPY liquidity out there, the BTC price would have to rise 100s or 1000s of times for the market cap to get big enough to give it enough scale to have even a slim chance at maturity.

That's the ideal outcome.
5528  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Ubitex: In-person Bitcoin exchange [SERVER UP] on: May 04, 2011, 04:12:34 AM
still broken for me.
5529  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What if receiving payments in bitcoins is made illegal? on: May 04, 2011, 04:09:54 AM
But if Bitcoin is relegated to only the black market online - you can use it but don't let anyone find out - that would hamstring it. Bitcoin would never reach its full potential.

The premise in the first sentence above does not lead to the conclusion in the second sentence.  Certainly Bitcoin adoption will be hampered in nations wherein the powers that be can threaten users with real violence for doing so, but this will do little to prevent adoption in locales where this is not so.

I am not sure what you are trying to say here. All else being equal, less hampering of Bitcoin adoption means it reaches more of its potential. Even if it can survive laws, matters would be better if there were no laws against it anywhere. Resistance, local or not, limits Bitcoin's potential.

Are you saying Bitcoin has no potential at all in countries "where the powers that be can threaten real violence"? In that case I disagree. I think Bitcoin has great potential even in e.g. the western world.

I'm saying that the adoption rate of Bitcoin in some locales does not limit it's future success in those same locales.  If Bitcoin is going to succeed, it will do so eventually regardless of how long particular governments might be able to hold back the tide.  The only way that I can forsee such intervention actually preventing Bitcoin from anything, rather than simply delaying it, is if all the world's governments were to agree to use force against Bitcoin users collectively.  I don't consider such international cooperation likely.
5530  Other / Off-topic / Re: EFF Open Wireless Movement on: May 04, 2011, 04:00:21 AM
Because the problem that they are trying to solve in privacy for the individual surfer, and if everyone knows the password, anyone can still see everyone else's packets.  Tor is a good solution, but so is a private VPN to connect to.  These are good practices anyway.

WPA uses separate encryption keys for everyone, so you can give out a password without allowing people to snoop on your traffic.

Is WPA not widely used by smartphones, then?  Where is the downside to WPA that the EFF makes the complaint without mentioning this?
5531  Economy / Economics / Re: A modest amount of inflation should be part of bitcoin on: May 04, 2011, 03:58:14 AM
  I do know that current system has proven extremely volatile.


Only for the moment.  Stability comes with market maturity.
5532  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What if receiving payments in bitcoins is made illegal? on: May 04, 2011, 03:56:26 AM
But if Bitcoin is relegated to only the black market online - you can use it but don't let anyone find out - that would hamstring it. Bitcoin would never reach its full potential.

The premise in the first sentence above does not lead to the conclusion in the second sentence.  Certainly Bitcoin adoption will be hampered in nations wherein the powers that be can threaten users with real violence for doing so, but this will do little to prevent adoption in locales where this is not so.
5533  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Necessary protocol improvement; dissent on future mining configuration on: May 04, 2011, 03:48:42 AM
@creighto: Please, let me clarify this debate.

Do you agree that transaction fess will approach the cost of verification?

I don't know what you mean by "cost of verification".
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If so, how is it that you don't think this will destroy the network once block rewards are depreciated? If not, what mechanism will influence fees to some sort of equilibrium?
I believe that the desires of users to have their transactions processed quickly will drive a market price for fee paying transactions.  Free transactions are charity, and there is nothing that compells miners to include them at all.  When the network is more heaviliy used, the competition for inclusion will drive the transaction fees, and the transaction fees will drive the difficulty.  This is a barely visable effect at present because there is so little traffic on the network compared to it's capacity, but it's already present.  Furthermore, not all transaction fees are voluntary.  Oversized, scripted or other unusual transactions require a fee; for very good reasons.  The -sendtomany transaction used by the mining pools, or something similar, is likely to be used by employers to pay their employees in one action, and a small fee is reasonable.  Any idea how much employers have to pay for those transactions now?  It's a lot higher than .01 bitcoin each week.  I also believe, that at the current rate of adoption and growth of the Bitcoin economy, the transaction fees will compare favorablely to the block reward by the time the first block reward is cut.
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I'm with Vandroiy on this. You claim there is no problem to solve. I'm curious to know why you think this?

Because I understand how it all works, perhaps?  I consider that a silly question, honestly.  Transactions are not a Tragedy of the Commons situation.  Sure, all the other users benefit from the security that your transaction fees pay for, but that is not why users pay for the transaction fees.  If the system required the altruistic commitment of users, I'd agree that the system was broken, and then we wouldn't be having this conversation because I'd have never been here long enough.  But it is not dependent upon the altruistic support of users, but in the rational self interests of users who, for reasons of their own, desire rapid confirmations of a legitimate transaction.  Part of the core complaint, as I understand it, is in a future without a hard blocksize limit; under the assumptions that 1) this limit must be raised or lifted soon in order to facilitate scaling up the Bitcoin network (I agree with this one) and 2) that the raising/lifting of this limit will cause the transaction fees to crash even as the transaction traffic grows.  Yet, we have already seen that transaction fees pop up even long before we approach this limit, even as the very low transaction rates we presently see.  Part of this is likely because there is much more to the transaction fees than just a hard limit.  In fact, the hard limit only exists at all in order to prevent the catastrophic spamming of the blockchain if an attack vector were to be found, and isn't part of the transaction fee schedule at all.
5534  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What if receiving payments in bitcoins is made illegal? on: May 04, 2011, 03:19:41 AM
In an attempt to return back to the question posed...

If governments succeed to ban the use of Bitcoin within their realms, as I'm sure that some will, so what?  Has the illegality of contraband actually stopped it's trade in meatspace?  By what method would the government actually be able to stop Bitcoin's trade in netspace?
5535  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What if receiving payments in bitcoins is made illegal? on: May 04, 2011, 03:15:11 AM
Especially not by an aspiring Joseph Goebbels (Hitler's propaganda chief) such as yourself.

@robm

This is pushing it.  Don't cross this line.
5536  Economy / Economics / Re: A modest amount of inflation should be part of bitcoin on: May 04, 2011, 03:05:17 AM
Nice thoughtful post, Tsudico. As Vladimir points out there won't be any home loan because the lender can just hold onto BTC at zero risk. 

This will hold true only so long as the value of the bitcoin is increasing at a rate faster than the ROI of the potential home loans.  This will not continue forever.  In fact, it's almost certain to level off to a much more stable relative value by 2020.  That or crash into oblivion.
5537  Economy / Economics / Re: Read this before having an opinion on economics on: May 04, 2011, 01:19:20 AM
Then there's the loss of goodwill towards doing business with someone that reserves the right to torture/execute you. Who writes a book that is that good?

That would have to be quite an astonishing book. I hear there is at least one book promising to burn you in an eternal inferno which is rather popular.

Not for making copies of it.
5538  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Announcing a new bitcoin store: bitmunchies.com on: May 04, 2011, 12:16:24 AM
Just offer frozen pizza, shipped in a cooler.

Won't be cheap, though.
5539  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Necessary protocol improvement; dissent on future mining configuration on: May 03, 2011, 11:37:37 PM
I suggest building a Web of Trust. You assume participants in the web of trust hold no signature to mark their identity.

Wat? Seriously, what? Okay, since this is apparently necessary, I will add that every participant in a web of trust holds a private key defining his identity.
I think you misunderstood my point.  Even in Bitcoin, trust is gained by direct interactions, but with those same interactions come identities.  A web of trust works well as a means to identify trustworthy counterparties.
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Now, assuming we have a "burden of proof" (what the heck, is someone on trial?).
No, the Bitcoin system is.  You have made an accusation that something is broken, I disagree.  I am the status quo, so it is your job to prove me wrong or end the libel.  Your opinion on how things might go wrong does not qualify.
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Isn't the equilibrium problem description as close as it gets?
You have failed to show how your equilibrium problem is actually an accurate discription, while others have already attempted to highlight errors in your viewpoint.
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The cartel structure is the only thing not covered, as it has too many external factors and is bad enough in itself.
The cartel problem has been debunked repeately on this forum.
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We cannot just ignore game theory/Tragedy of the Commons because "hey it might work out 'cause all the chaos in the system will make things hard enough". That is just believing something will work.
I won't ignore real problems, but nor should we just start freaking out because one guy thinks that he has found the great error in the system.
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You say I just believe the network will go to a known equilibrium. Well, you just believe it'll take a nice value, even though you provide no model as to why it shouldn't end up anywhere else.
Again, it's not my problem to show you anything.  And I don't think that it will end up at a nice value, I think that it is a self balancing system that will continuously find it's happy point largely own it's own, and I don't think that it's going to be unmonitored regardless.
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Where's the link between size of the biggest attacker and transaction fees?
There isn't one.   Your problem is that you cannot define why there needs to be one, much less what the minimum dificulty level should be.
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Is there even a functioning proposed set of rules apart from the arbitrary block size limit?
Actually, yes.  And that has been pointed out already.  And they are not proposed, they are presently functioning.
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There is nothing in place but the limits, which are a fairly poor long-time solution.
Maybe they are, maybe they aren't.  Still adjustable.
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We're still at the proposal "just use high limits", which is known to fail when overpowered, versus an attempt that might be stable even if someone has more processing power. Attack outcome not altered between the two. I see no disadvantage, but a potential benefit.
And I see no advantage and much potential downside to your proposal.
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At scorched earth: two factors. One: scorched earth only ever works on nodes with more trust linking to to sabotaging participants than honest ones. Two: a single node providing the block that came first speedily makes the attacking fraction look idiotic. Yeah, they all had the block all the time, but none cared to send it? Imagine this with a chain of three. The client could mark them as "apparent attackers" without much risk. If they claim they also got it late, the node would ask who sent it with such delay, tracking the origin of the block. It will find the honest fractions in the Web of Trust, all knowing nothing about the supposedly old block. What could they do to sound trustworthy? Someone has to justify the delay, and there just is no reason to create a long delay.
Really?  You seriously can't see the problem with this proposal?
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It's just a problem of "which order came first" on a 12 minute time scale in a long-running network. We have the timing, and the chance to remember nodes from the past. We could use this to our advantage, and do what can be done. But we could also just throw the information into the bin and keep hoping we're the strongest petaflop-gang of the world. I don't understand how there can be doubts which is the better option.

We could actually add that to the protocal of the running network without much trouble, I think, but depending uon that for the security of the blockchain is far worse than depending upon the hashing strenght of the entire honest network.
5540  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Bitcoin national radio campaign starting this week! on: May 03, 2011, 11:13:27 PM
It's free to use,

Sometimes false.
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free to accept,
True.
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and free from inflation---forever!
Wildly false.  Do not use this statement!
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You can use bitcoins anywhere in the world,
Only true if you have Internet access anywhere in the world.
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and their value will only grow with time.
Probably false.
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