Great chart, just showed how high our productivity is: No need to get new worker for 40 weeks or more. Maybe cut some more during this period
i've decided you're a shill plant. you promote the status quo at every opportunity. you've not changed my mind one bit. in fact, thank you for extending my favorite threads in the Economics section to view my opinions and outlook. Serious?  I am always enjoyed reading your threads anyway  I'm not speculating, more an investor and hope the economy will find a way out of this mess, but first I have to list all the facts |
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Although I have some gold short position, I hope gold not going down, otherwise we really could not find the next bubble to save the world  |
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One direct effect is that some of the pension funds/mutal funds have to sell US bonds due to they have a rule to only hold AAA rating securites
I have loaded quite some put options, but I think market will just seesaw until some voice come from FED on Tuesday
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Great chart, just showed how high our productivity is: No need to get new worker for 40 weeks or more. Maybe cut some more during this period
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At this point, we can write off Bitcoin as a failed experiment. It's worth thinking about how a different distributed digital currency might be made workable. A few problems which have to be solved:
Similar thought after getting familiar with this game, hope that some new version of bitcoin or new digital currency will address these weaknesses: 1. Wallet.dat operation complexity and security concern 2. unstable exchange price 3. deflation nature All these makes it a perfect speculation tool for IT/Gaming enthusiasts  I happened to be an IT/Gaming enthusiast, it is fun to play around |
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i just had dinner with a highly successful multimillion dollar hedge fund manager and i picked his brain about the economy and the future of our country. he actually is as pessimistic as i am and said whats happening is typical for a empire starting a long decline. he thinks the youth in our country will have a great burden to bear and won't have our lifestyles. he said our administration is doing all the wrong things with Obama being 3x worse than Bush. and Bush was bad. he has a crapload of CDS against all PIGS, Japan, and US debt. he is VERY bearish on CMBS and has CDS against them as well. he says commercial RE is heading into the crapper and will suffer greatly in the coming decline. he said we should have let the system implode in 2001 and 2008 but our admins wouldn't allow it. and now we have to pay. we disagreed in that he thinks the gov't and Fed will continue to inflate and he holds a large portfolio of gold mining stocks. i pointed out they'd been getting killed but he said the fund has had them for many years so i guess he means since back in 2002 b/c thats the only way they'd still be up. they also have a small holding of bullion. they are buying farmland and select residential and strip malls but only if he can get them for cents on the dollar. he thinks they should buy guns too. i asked him about the gov't losing control and deflation setting in and he said no one knows for sure whats going to happen. couldn't argue about that.
When a bubble burst, we always need another bigger bubble to get out of the problem, but the housing bubble is too big, difficult to imagin a new bubble that is even bigger, maybe that's the reason Japan stayed put for about 20 years |
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Is the takeaway message here that austrian economics is correct in theory, but lacks predictive power because market participants refuse to behave according to its tenants?
Not refuse, just reluctant. Most of the people will dislike a careful and monk-like life. Many things in the social are so complex, people seldom have insight about the consequence of their action 10 or 20 years later, they just follow the majority |
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Not far away before they start taking risks? That's ALL they're doing with the Fed's cash is taking risks. Why do you think commodities are so high? If QE is supposed to help the average person, then why is unemployment and leverage still so high? QE is a free pass for banks to take risks with the house's money. Who can blame them, I'd be doing it too if I could.
If you have billions of dollar like those bankers, I think you will consider how to help the average person  What FED can do is monitoring the economy development and support with needed cash. In a recession, many people will unavoidably start to borrow money (Governement need them most in today's system, they need to pay the unemployment benefit and social security), so keep plenty of money supply is necessary. These money can only help to hold the situation and will increase the future burden, but still better than killing lot's of businesses rightaway Of course some of these money pushed commodity price, but I think most of them transfered into some type of saving I have a simple model can prove: Suppose that normal business trasaction need 1 million dollar, if people start to save, then at least 10 million dollar or even 100 million dollar of money supply is needed |
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If the exchange rate changes wildly, it is a gamble If the exchange rate rises continously, it is a bubble If the exchange rate drops continously, it is a trouble Either way, not suitable for serious business |
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From a wealthy investor in the USA, to a farmer in India to a factory worker in China, all would prefer a bar of gold over a USB key with a wallet.dat.
;DExactly, BTC is just too complex to use (and understand) for the majority of people |
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forgot that one Curbside. yes, pay off debt! i personally am debt free and loving it. and i do have a lot of assets. i use cash to play the markets in stocks, PM's, and btc. Its way too dangerous IMO to play the debt game assuming Ben will inflate it away. why would you depend on that criminal? also, why would the bankers allow him to do that to their assets=loans?
I don't think they will repeat what happened in 1930s, and QE2 really increased many institution/corporation's cash reserve, it's not far away before they start to actively invest/take risk Keynes had pointed out: People will spend less when their income decrease, but not as much as income decreased. So the total consumption is actually higher even if income drops to the previous level Another thing, like Telecom/IT/housing, those bubbles always can bring some years of boom, since they will bring easy/quick profit and generate lots of new job. We need another bubble to bring some easy/quick profit, and gold is very likely to be such a bubble, BTC have the potential but just technically too complex for the majorities When gold is selling at 10000$/ounce, there will be many jobs/products created around gold: Gold mining equipment manufacture, gold research scientists, gold certificate issuer, gold sales manager, gold derivatives, gold CDS/CDO, and many new invented gold related concepts...  |
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This means, the game in a large degree benefit those who joined this game earlier, it is still a "first come, first get" model, no matter how technically advanced, the ownership model has no difference than today's society, this model always slave/disencourage later adapters, it's just a matter of time before people start to lose interest
What is a late adopter? The guy who come after me. What is an early adopter? The guy who come before me. It's all relative. As long as you have enough human beings who want to adopt bitcoin, the late adopters will become early adopters and the late adopters have incentive to convince people to join in the bitcoin economy. Don't also forget that early adopters have incentive to invest in the bitcoin economy and convince people to join in. You see? This is an advantage of bitcoin, not a flaw. This is not sustainable in long run, when most of the people joined the game, it's over |
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up |
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The total amount of the coin is 21 million, and currently 6.8 million has already been produced, they belongs to a handful amount of people who joined this game early
This means, the game in a large degree benefit those who joined this game earlier, it is still a "first come, first get" model, no matter how technically advanced, the ownership model has no difference than today's society, this model always slave/disencourage later adapters, it's just a matter of time before people start to lose interest
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That's pretty much how a bitcoin economy will look like, good attempt!
There is a problem: If there are more than 21 million garnets need to be traded, then the total amount of BTC is not enough to facilitate the trading
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35. Wait for the message that says you need to remove the USB flash-drive (DON'T DO THAT!), then just press "Enter"
This is a problem: Some times I need to remotely login and shutdown/reboot the machine, but this message will interupt the process since I'm not physically beside the machine and the ssh session has already closed
Is there a way to bypass this message?
What version ? this has been removed from 0.2b-final Right, final version do not have this problem, I have not updated since I installed it |
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It's still difficult to explain to people that saving hurts economy
wow, that hurts. i've grown up a saver and always will be. i don't mind debt when necessary like for my mortgage and business but i've since paid both off given the crisis which has been debt driven. you seem to be doubling down and i'd be careful given what i feel is a large topping formation since 2001. we just can't assume anymore debt. have you studied demographics? we and China are getting much older and these elders are moving into the dependent state. they also sell stocks and RE during retirement not to mention draw on SS and Mcar. they'll be many fewer workers to support those dependents. did you see the labor participation rate this AM? Well, it's exactly this way of thinking put the recession much prolonged. But there is nothing to blame, people should always seek for security when there is uncertainty. Unless saving has accumulated to a very high level, they dare not to spend again. This careful and planned thinking is supported by Austrian Economists, if everyone in the society act like this, then we have a perfect stable economic system. But the problem is, the majority of people are not like this, they don't even know how to manage their personal economy. I looked around my friends nearby, none of them without a debt bounded on a house. So, even you can handle yourself very well, we are all on the same planet, if most of the other guys got problem, you can not get out of it |
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Haha I didn't even bother reading this post. But if you've ever worked with robots, you would know that an incredible amount of human work goes into making a decent robot. And those are high-paying jobs With the work I do, you don't see robots replacing humans. The robots just do the job more precisely than humans ever could. There are still just as many humans needed to keep the robots moving. So, robots serve the capitalists and human serve the robot, there will be a new career: robot service On further thought, don't you think this is strange? You become the slave of what you created... |
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BTC are not centralized, so pegging them to anything would be impossible.
However, feel free to create a new cryptocurrency pegged to whatever you would like.
That is what I mean, if you do not have a centralized authority, the pegging system would be based on totally another set of rules independant of central bank, this might bring BTC some advantage against fiat currency, whose value changes a lot nowadays If BTC value is very unstable like we have seen, then only speculators will be interested, no real economy will grow out of it |
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i have confirmed tonite that we have a confirmed bearish primary trend change according to Dow Theory. this is the first time we have seen this since the March 09 lows. this is bad news and i would caution all commodity inflationists that a bear market means DEFLATION.
A tripple top breakdown... If it will be DEFLATION, FEB still have lots of room to play around What I'm fraid is that Inflation rate eventually pick up because of the raw material price rising, but no serious money were put into new hiring(only invest in machine/robots) thus jobless rate keep climbing. STAGFLATION is a dead end for any kind of monetary policies I think recent down trend is more of a psychological effect rather than fundamental, but sometimes fundamentals were also driven by people's mood, especially when most of the people havn't get out from the shadow of financial crisis. Actually their risk tolerance ability have improved. I believe QEs and stimulates already helped, but not enough and visible. People argue that they are not useful, but just a month after QE2 ended, the market looks like this It's still difficult to explain to people that saving hurts economy |
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