i actually think that the Fed is going to try and get PM's to crack to the downside. there was that article i saw a coupla days ago about how the bankers were complaining to Berspankme about the fall in the dollar. if they've convinced him to sacrifice the stock market to save the dollar and bonds we could be entering a huge deflationary wave. this has been my theory about whats going to happen all along which is why i've been selling PM's and sold a bunch more today. down to my last few ounces. God i hope this doesn't affect BTC as i've shifted all my PM gains into BTC.
my shorts on silver and silver stocks paid big today as well.
edit: if i'm right this will absolutely kill the inflationists. i think i am...
I'm your trading opponent and I still have lots of silver long position  Compare the equivalent value of 1 ounce gold in 80's and today, they still have 4X uppside potential |
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Because they can print RMB at will.
Expect to see that blow up in their faces in the next 5 to 10 years.
Same as FED printing USD, and that pegged exchange rate is not fixed, I remember it is 3.x in 80s, 8.x in 90s, now 6.x A pegged system could be aimed by hedge funds. Soros crashed bank of england and some aisan countries, but he was defeated by the HongKong government when he played the same trick, because chinese government had much more USD reserve than he could leverage. As long as an economy scale is small, maintain price stability is difficult |
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35. Wait for the message that says you need to remove the USB flash-drive (DON'T DO THAT!), then just press "Enter"
This is a problem: Some times I need to remotely login and shutdown/reboot the machine, but this message will interupt the process since I'm not physically beside the machine and the ssh session has already closed
Is there a way to bypass this message?
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I expected a chopper related story |
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Actually I'm waiting any kind of rebounce to buy several put option tomorrow  trading declining mkts is a b*tch. if we get a bounce, be careful about shorting too soon as we could get a week long bounce or so. long term we're all dead though... Thanks, I just want to protect my stock holdings from a flash crash, it might happen tomorrow after NFP and Dow goes down 2000 points in 5 minutes maybe? Long term wise, I'm positive, QE3,4,5 is on the way, as long as Bernanke hold the joystick of his helicopter firmly(If he is as soft as Obama, there might be some severe problem) |
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Anything I learned about DOS, Windows 3.1, or Windows 95; anything I learned about Pascal, C++, and Java in the 90's; Anything I learned about IDE, Serial Ports, ISA, and old memory/processor types: It's ass sh*t now. Continuous learning just means you're current with current technology and knowledge. Anyone who is new and starts learning the same things I am currently learning is really on the same footing as me. The only advantage I have is that maybe I have a bit more experience "learning"
Try to find a newbie and explain to him what is "rising difficulty", I'm sure it takes much longer than explain to a miner |
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Actually I'm waiting any kind of rebounce to buy several put option tomorrow |
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the exchange price of a bitcoin. is defined by supply and demand.
it can therefor not be pegged to anything.
example:
you do make a fixed-price exchange. where one can buy 1btc for 10usd.
now if the price on another exchange goes to 13usd per btc.
people will put alot of usd into your exchange, and you will run dry of btc(and your peg is GONE)
sorry mate.
If everyone is honest merchants and the market is enough big, then maybe supply and demand will decide a reasonable price, but for a small currency like BTC, it will take only one hedge fund to push the price to 100+$ and cash out, finally short it to 1$ from there In a pegged system, the exchange rate is always decided realtime by a basket currency/commodities, so basically all the exchange will have the same rate published. Of course, if a hedge fund manager put 10 million dollar to buy as much BTC as possible, then exchange will have to provide that amount of BTC to him, since almost everyone is hoarding BTC, exchange simply could not find that much BTC that he can buy, then there will be a liquidity problem So, for a pegged currency, the exchange should have enough reserve to damp the speculative behavior and keep the promised exchange rate, this role normally is carried out by a central bank But anyway, with a pegged exchange rate, the worst result will only be liquidity problem, the exchange rate will always keep the same, this will in a large degree discourage the speculation |
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Anyone trying to peg the BTC to anything will get pegged To OP's point... have you ever researched what has happened to countries that peg their currency to the US dollar? It works for a while, then it gets really ugly really fast. China has been pegging RMB to USD for decades, it still goes on |
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While intellectual property could also pose an issue, the problem here is physical property: specifically, the robots themselves, the equipment needed to manufacture them, the raw materials to feed all this, and the land from which the raw material are mined. If all of this is in the hands of said robot-owning overclass, everyone else is screwed unless they can take it from them by force; I seem to recall most libertarians are against this.
In a free market, you can always get the ownership of material/equipment/robot through trading. And the trading power will be decided by how much capital one have. Those who have the capital today will become the robot-owning class tomorrow, but that is ok, as long as people have free access to the products created by those robots Private ownership has been the driven power of economy for hundreds of years, I'm not sure if this still works in a robotic economy. I think, if robot belongs to the government, then all those debt problem will be gone. Even all the government employees are replaced by robots and create a super high unemployment rate, since government can still provide good education/healthcare/social security...by using robots, everyone can still live a good life without working! |
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There is only one reason behind any kind of price drop: People lost the interest
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I'm not saying that you have to be a technical/scientific/financial genius. How may people know math and are literate now compared to 100 years ago? How may people are working comparatively easier jobs now as retail clerks, using their math and reading skills, than 100 years ago, when most manufacturing jobs only required that you follow the same basic repetitive steps? Sure, we'll always have some people that either refuse to, or can't, learn or grasp anything complex, and we'll likely always need them to do things like janitorial, security, or even retail/fast food work, but you'd have to at least agree that most people out there can at least take a few college level classes to get SOME slightly advanced skills? Even high school level education is useful for things like data entry, transcribing/proofreading, basic accounting, etc (things machines can't yet do). Those jobs that require eyes, brains, and someone on location will likely never go away.
Currently, many unemployeed are those young people just graduated from colleges. I think "continous learning" even worsen the picture: Those who are in the job expand their automation technology to a higher and higher level through continous learning. Since they are learning all the time during their whole career, this just means no new employee can catch up with their speed and the knowledge gap between them will be larger and larger |
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See this chart. Chart taken from this article. I don't agree with the conclusions necessarily, but it gives a good discussion of the exchange mechanism and demonstrates how sterilization works in the real world. Can you spot the one critical feature in the chart that explains how PBC is able to hold a peg? Do you understand how the lack of that feature will make it impossible for you (or anyone else) to maintain a peg? Exchange rate is always need to be controlled, no matter a floated currency or a pegged currency. Bank of Japan just did an intervention yesterday BTC is a distributed currency, and the exchange rate can also be distributed, that makes a composite exchange rate for BTC attractive |
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This will cause global warming and noise polution, what is that cost?
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Well, it might need to be designed to suit BTC nature, I haven't think a lot about this
Take China for example, their currency exchange rate is controlled by the central bank
If you want to buy some goods from a chinese merchant, you tell your bank that 100K USD is going to merchant A to buy some goods, then the bank will issue a Letter of Credit to merchant A. Merchant A will dispatch the goods and use the shipping order to get payment from a chinese bank designated in LC. After payment is done, your bank will receive the shipping order and you use that order to get your goods.
Merchant A get payment in RMB, not USD, since his chinese bank has already exchanged those USD to RMB with central bank. Therefore, central bank collect USD and paying out RMB to merchant A.
Same, if merchant A wants to import some USD products, the central bank has to exchange his RMB to USD before any purchase action, using a fixed exchange rate.
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It's not that there are no jobs, it's that there are more advanced jobs and fewer blue collar jobs. Unemployment rate for those with college education is actually pretty low, at 4.5% (personally, I don't know anyone of my friends in MD who lost a job, and know of two who quit theirs to find better ones) http://www4.icmarc.org/for-individuals/market-view/chart-of-the-week/cotw-20110617usunemploymentbyeducationallevel.htmlEven during the Great Depression, despite a HUGE unemployment rate, businesses were scrambling to find good employees and having trouble finding any. Machines replacing jobs just leaves more people with a lot more time to do more advanced and more creative things that require more brains and less muscle. So, machines replaced your cashier/assembly/low-skill job? Get some special job training or a degree. Not all people are born equal, only small amount of people will become highly skilled workers. Given a random example of 10,000 people, there will always be 100 of them much clever than others due to optimum growth of their brain when they are still in the belly of their mother You can observe this very clearly in the IT industry: Almost every one can go to school and get a computer science degree, but only a few of them will really understand how a computer works and make their own computer system (like Gates/Jobs/Linus) etc... some of the other guys understand part of the whole picture, thus become an expert in a specific area, and many many other guys only understand the general knowledge, it's these many many other guys could not find a job |
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Most of today's economy model is studying the scarcity, it uses lot's of assumptions in a scarcity dominated society, but we already passed that stage long time ago. Keynes discovered that over supply is dangerous, he tried to increase the demand to match the increased productivity. But why not reduce the supply? Because in a credit based economy, you have to increase future income (thus increase supply) to payback the loan and interest, everyone is driven by profit/earnings/loan interests, this makes everyone works like a slave The theory of oversupply is completely false. Its flawed because its based on the study of aggregates which hide what its really going on in the economy. There never has been in the economy a general excess of supply. What has happened is that there has been an oversupply of certain products (f.e. houses) and an undersupply of others. What do you think would have happened if all the resources, including human labour, that was dedicated to build houses everywhere would have been dedicated to produce something people actually wanted? Its not oversupply, I dont understand how people can look around with so many poor people and conclude that we produce too much. Its a problem of not producing what people really wants. I'm not saying the product/service are oversupplied, it is the productivity is enough high but the demand is not evenly distributed Robots can produce one yacht for each people in the world, but not everyone can afford it, simply because they do not have income since robots got their job. And a common sense is that if you do not have high productivity, then you do not have enough product to exchange for what you want. I start to think this has something to do with the ownership of the productivity, those who owned robot get very high productivity, while those who don't get this ownership will have low productivity thus have to live a low standard life |
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For countries with small economy scale and small amount of currency, they ususally use a USD pegged exchange rate to avoid currency value fluctuate wildly.
So, to be stable in the early stage of BTC, it can use a pegged exchange rate to a basket of world currency and commodities, for example considering such a combination:
USD 10%
EUR 10%
GBP 10%
CHF 10%
JPY 10%
Gold 10%
Crude Oil 10%
Copper 10%
Rice 10%
Cotton 10%
These combined elements will keep the overall exchange rate of BTC very stable, since most of the price movement in these elements will cancel each other
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Flash crash  When the crisis come, people still want USD  |
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