Unsubscribe from Socrates and email them that you would be interested after they provide the historical data. It is peanuts for them. The difficulty is to generate the reports and the web GUI. Dumping the data of a system that has been around for 30 years into a text file is not worth even talking about. If they don't do it, then it is proof they have something to hide.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Not exactly of course because I don't have his code. Read my previous post at https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51469252#msg51469252

When you get too deep into this you actually forget how to trade and become dependent / victim of this system.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

I make my claims based on logic such as saying that the Socrates system does not tell the user what to trade, for how long to trade it, with what stop loss and so on. So even if we had all the data, we would still not be able to test it because there are no objective test criteria.

If nobody has historical data because the Socrates system does not provide it, then the Socrates system is flawed because it hides the historical data from us.

The burden of proof is on the Socrates system not on us.

If I do not provide the data now then that does not prove that the Socrates system is correct. If I provide the data then anybody could say my data is flawed because it cannot be corroborated because Socrates does not provide it. I could have just made it up. And as I said, it provides an attack surface where Armstrong proxies can come forward with their well known beat around the bush forecast array method where they will perhaps say that this and that weekly reversal should have been traded only for a day because there was a strong turning point on Monday.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Good approach. I would recommend to search the original material that he is copying from / aggregating on his blog. He publishes 3rd party but original material that is not necessarily easy to find. One has to give him credit for that. As far as economics is concerned and the theme of western civilization declining, nothing new. Much more to learn from Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, Julian Assange. The themes are loss of accountability, the fundamental problem of delegation and the need to regulate the capitalist system which is exploitative by nature. The interesting thing to me is that Assange actually has a solution: Transparency. Well, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts recommends to go to Russia. Not too bad a call when I look at their stock market. But is this an option we are looking for?

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Simplicity is better

I started shorting Brazil last week when it had the temp high. Low risk high reward. Simple to find.

No single signal in Socrates about it, actually it is still bullish from what I have heard. So far, profitable even while the start was a bit scary.

So what would have happened had I traded Socrates?

Weekly reversals elected 2019-06-07, traded for a week Friday to Friday close 2019-06-07 to 2019-06-14

$DXY weekly bearish 1% loss
EUR/USD weekly bullish 1.1% loss
GDAX weekly bullish 0.4% gain
SENSEX weekly bullish 0.4% loss
USD/CAD weekly bearish 1.0% loss
USD/CHF weekly bearish 1.2% loss
Visa weekly bullish 0.2% loss
Cotton weekly bearish 0.5% loss
Heating oil weekly bearish 0.3% loss
Natural gas weekly bearish 2.1% loss

That is a fairly good cross section of the market, of what was elected, I guess. One winner.

I would not want to extend this depressing experiment by another two weeks waiting while these trades come right while I can have a profit within a week with something better.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

The reversals I got from the two highest subscription levels not the blog. Still the collection of that many reversals is a very labor intensive process as you can imagine. You are correct that my methodology has a problem because I used a fixed time window for trading them. As I pointed out earlier, according to a recent Armstrong article, a weekly reversal may need to be traded between only a single day and 3 weeks. When you read this article https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/reversals-timing/, and https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/trading-against-the-reversals/, and you acknowledge that the interpretation of forecast arrays is a subjective process, where you may need to even trade against them, and you know how unreliable the forecast arrays are, then you understand what the ambiguity is that I am talking about.

Every trickster or con man with a ponzi scheme has some kind of trick to confuse you and this is the trick - where the trading of reversals is so ambiguous that there are literally hundreds of ways to trade them. This is the back door for him to be always right in hindsight. There is no way to methodically test them using this ambiguity. If we do not understand that and if we try to follow this ambiguity then we are idiots by spending an infinite amount of energy to prove or disprove his system. In other words, the system is extremely limited, I would say not a computer system but manual because it does not say for how long to trade a reversal.

I have a choice between a) where because of this endless ambiguity, the system is not a tradeable system or b) I draw a line in the sand and measure success by trading it exactly for a single time period (which is what I did). In fact I think a) AND b) so I reject the system as a whole as a scam, and do the test based on b) only for demonstration purposes. Otherwise, if you read all my posts, I have thoroughly discredited the system - there is not much I can add.

In other words, there is no exact method to test an ambiguous system. Ambiguous is kind of the opposite of exact so how is that possible?

You ask me to share the data. Perhaps at some future point. But by doing so, I would play into Armstrong's hands where he can effectively attack just a few reversals and make them look right in hindsight and start an endless discussion, thereby forcing me to spend even more energy on this rubbish. I prefer to point out the flaws in the system such as ambiguity and deception, and the fact that it does not provide historical data. Let's ask customer support to provide that historical data on a daily basis. Like other services do. That would be the correct way to handle this.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Socrates Investor Level Track Record

Just an example, a very mild one.

1) I am choosing monthly buy and sell signals. These are less frequent than weekly signals, so the risk is reduced compared with weekly signals. The Investor Level report has both weekly and monthly signals.

2) I am choosing a an ETF, "GLD Miners" GDX, which should be easier to manage for Socrates because it is correlated with Gold, which is where Armstrong should have significant experience, and where I found generally better performance than with stocks.

The signal I am tracking is at the end of the report:

We have generated a (buy|sell) signal so some caution is required.

I buy when the first buy signal appears, and I reverse my position when the signal reverses to a sell signal.

Between 2016-06-07 and 2019-06-14, Socrates made 7 such reversals between buy and sell. The trades result in a loss of 35% of the initial capital. Only one trade was a gain. This proves that the trade signals that Socrates emits are on average buy the high, sell the low.

It is fair to say that this software is a piece of rubbish, and tossing a coin actually gives a better result.
Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

That is propaganda or wishful thinking. It is not going to happen for multiple reasons. First MA was in jail for so many years for financial missteps where he lost large amounts of other people's money. No way that a fund management group would want to get anywhere near his services. The second reason is that if it was realistic, then MA would do it himself and make big money. As MA admits numerous times, everybody acts in his own interests. The third reason is that big money cannot invest following signals emitted by the Socrates system. Their acquisitions have to be made over long periods of time using hidden orders. They usually have to buy when the market is declining. Socrates does not emit buy signals on lows or declines. If, for example they would buy at the election of a Bullish Reversal, it would be devastating because they would drive the price up with their large orders too much to be profitable. Different dynamics.

MA survives in this niche area where he makes money from selling services to retail investors with limited experience, the reports, and conferences. His dream is to create a business detached from his personality like Socrates. Once he retires, the system will collapse. There is no business model. Armstrong cannot grow. That is because any computer based trading system defeats itself naturally as soon as a significant number of people start trading based on it. Especially a system like Socrates which is single dimensional and cannot adapt because it is not using AI at all. You can say that you have been successful because you followed the wider trend which is fine. But that is what I call single observation based statistics. In contrast, I have taken hundreds of predictions made by Socrates and found that it is not better than tossing a coin. Surely a large scale manager will come to the same conclusions that I did, further complicating the situation. No way.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12240520


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

MA so thoroughly discredits himself in many blog posts, only a complete idiot would take any of his advice.

Take for example his ideas on food security:

Local Food a Good Idea for Economic Freedom

Local Food a Good Idea for Economic Freedom
Posted Feb 5, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
Sorry for the typo, this is a good idea for those who want to look at having a back-up for the future. But this idea should also be taken seriously in places that need to import food. The number one reason politicians have stated that Greece should remain in the euro is that they have to import their food. This would eliminate the majority of that problem. I strongly recommend Greeks look at this technology. It can also provide economic freedom from the EU.


The Way of the Future

The Way of the Future
Posted Feb 5, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
One of the more vital technological advancements has been developed. They can grow all the necessary food without farmland from inside a warehouse that is completely free from genetic tinkering or chemical whatever.
This technology and has been doing a bang-up job around the world. It would probably not be a bad idea to set one up in a basement for the years ahead. This is the way of the future ? fresh food coming from your basement.


So here we go. Expand your basement to the size of a few acres and grow wheat, rice and potatoes.

Just as a footnote, even unrefined crude oil is more expensive than grain by weight, and there will not be an economic replacement on a significant scale for open air agriculture powered by the sun to produce the food that humans need. Ever.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Value of this Blog Space, Transparency

Regarding Martin Armstrong, I feel very grateful for the existence of this bitcointalk blog space, how it helps discover the truth.

We need both more transparency and privacy. The person who perhaps understands this best with his philosophy is Julian Assange. I donated the money I saved from no longer subscribing to Socrates to Assange's defense fund.

I recommend to look at portrait photos of both persons Julian Assange and Martin Armstrong, compare and let this sink in. Regarding Julian Assange, I can say, what a wonderful person.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

That sums it up nicely. So what is the reason for this technically?

1) The timing signals, provided by the forecast arrays are simply rubbish. They are a terrible patch work using a dubious ensemble method. The result is subject to human interpretation, and there is not much to say about this - they just don't work.

2) Imagine the reversals are generated by slicing the time going backwards from the generating extreme to the previous opposite extreme into time slots. There might be some kind of projection involved which is needed for reversal values that the market has not yet visited, but nothing fancy.The reversal values are somewhere near where the price line crosses the four vertical boundary lines of these time slots. In some cases, depending on the shape of the price curve going backwards to the previous extreme, there are multiple reversals with same or near same values, which are then the double, triple reversals. The reversals are near previous / projected resistance and support values naturally because that is where the price movement is flatter, and where the vertical time lines cross the price line more easily / more often. These reversals work, if the trend is clear price wise going back into the direction of the previous extreme or some kind of projection. They are elected one after the other, just like following your nose. If however, the market does NOT move in this simple fashion, such as now, in some kind of consolidation period, then the reversals are elected in a chaotic fashion. You buy the high and sell the low. That is because the reversals are near resistance and support, and you are getting whip-lashed in the trend channel between them. It is this situation where we need the ambiguous human interpretation of the forecast arrays to provide excuses for the failures. Here, recently MA produces user feedback about them trading AGAINST the failing reversals, praising them for doing so in his public blog. See Trading Against the Reversals. Also, in such movements, failing weekly reversals are effectively degraded to daily reversals or any time period by providing another excuse as described here: Reversals & Timing. This really destroys any confidence in the reversals because it is a complete mess, just for the purpose of perfect deniability.

3) The Socrates system does not have any means to detect whether the market is in a mode where the reversal system works or not (trending or turning as you say). Therefore, over time, using this system, a trading account will be depleted, basically because markets are moving sideways longer than they are declining / rising as nicely as the reversal system wants them to. Or, when the market is turning and there are no signals indicating the turn.


When I say it was made up, I mean to say that the computer makes it up. These immediate revision reversals, for the purpose of publishing only, need to have a number that is far enough away from the close to be guaranteed to be elected. The number is therefore meaningless. That is why I am saying they are made up, because once the system decides one is needed to correct the failure, then there should not be an option that it is NOT elected, so its price is always far enough away from the close, but it does not have any physical meaning. In this case, there was nothing at 993 that could be interpreted price wise. At the time, I really scratched my head about this number, believe me. The reason why I am criticizing these reversals is because in MA's own scheme, they are something else not reversals. They are effectively borrowed from the future, created in hindsight. If they were reversals like the other regular ones, then they would be available simultaneously with the opposite reversals that failed earlier.

The reason I go into such detail is because knowledge is asymmetric and unfair, and MA has a clear advantage by completely controlling the information on his public and private blogs where no user feedback is allowed except what is censored / manufactured by MA. The user on the other side, simply does not usually have the resources that I have applied to this mess. So I am sharing my knowledge here as others do as well, and I will repeat this information whenever appropriate to level the playing field a little.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

I hate to say this but there is flaw in judging the system by going through the blog. MA does of course know the weakness of the system. Before he posts a message on the blog, he will make a definite statement only in case where he has cherry-picked a case that he is most confident about, and where he has falsified past performance of the system where required. And still he fails. But we don't have this luxury. Those trades are so rare that it meets the criteria that rosousa has explained in detail with his risk / reward calculation in an earlier post that is worth reading. In simple terms, the system does not let you cherry-pick like that because there is no cherry-picker in it. And if you could in fact cherry-pick somehow, then you would only get three trades in a year.

I fell for this as well. Years ago, I bought the gold reports and recorded the statistics of the reversals in the gold reports. It was amazing. Why did it work so well then? Because it was a year's worth of steady declines. Then the market turned and MA missed the bounce, still writing bearish messages. For me, this was devastating. After the fact, months later he bragged about the system being right again because it had sent a long term quarterly bullish reversal superimposed with a shorter time quarterly bearish reversal. This is a real model case.


Year End Report 2015:

When we look at gold going into year-2015, we see absolute critical support at
1044. A year-end closing g beneath this level will signal new lows and they can
be quite dramatic. From a technical perspective, the two key targets will be
1026 and 601. Important resistance during 2016 will begin at 1179 with key
resistance forming at 1310. Therefore, even a year-end closing for 2015 below
1179 will keep gold in a bearish position.
Additionally, we have a Quarterly Bearish Reversal at 1112. Therefore, a yearend
closing below this level should also warn of a drop becomes possible at
least to test the 875 to 904 former high of 1980. A monthly closing beneath 904
would also point to a drop way down to the 680 area.


Gold elected the quarterly bearish but we heard about the quarterly bullish too late the next year:

Another anomaly was that at the end of 2015, we elected the Quarterly Bearish
Reversal at 1112 closing at 1060.20. At the same time, that low generated a
minor Quarterly Bullish Reversal at 993. So we generated a long-term sell signal,
but a short-term buy signal. The next two Quarterly Bullish generated were at
1308 and 1347. That meant we should first rally typically for 2 to 3 months in a
reaction and if they failed to be elected by the close of March, then the longterm
trend should resume to retest support.

When he writes At the same time, he is lying.

I never heard about that 993 bullish at the time when it was needed. Note that this is a bullish reversal that is generated well below market price. The number 993 is likely just made up. It is NOT a reversal in a sense that is generated prior for you to examine. And I bought the report which comes in installments with videos and so on, covering a year (not ending at end of year but going well into that period where we should have received that signal) and that reversal was not available. So what are these superposition events then? They come after the fact! They are fraudulent. The system discovers that it is wrong and voila, it has an automatic excuse. Months later? Give me a break! Like the weekly superposition events. They come out on Monday when the system discovers that the price has crossed the threshold that marks the failure of the elected reversal. They should be called REVISION signals

Revision Signals

because superposition is something else. Superposition is when a resulting signal is composed of multiple signal components at the same time, simultaneously, to form a more complex signal. Not a corrective signal is added at a later time. So it is all misleading left, right and center and incompetence is everywhere.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

I have seen these near hits many times before, too. It is intriguing, but no surprise, given that reversals are created near resistance and support levels. It is still coincidence because the ranges are quite small, and the likelihood to hit a reversal is high. Naturally, these support and resistance levels is what traders focus on as well. Kind of self-fulfilling. However, this does not mean that one can use reversals to trade and beat the market. There is a correlation between all markets, and it is likely that if one market shows this behavior then others will do so, too. The currency pairs are actually the worst performers - you cannot make money using the weekly or any reversals. You get whip-sawed with no end in sight. That is because the currencies are typically not moving in one direction for long, and the reversals if elected are buy the high and sell the low or just break even for a week. No point getting mystified. Just do the math. Collect a few hundred reversals in a spreadsheet and you will see what I mean.
Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

What is the Global Market Watch (GMW)?

For Martin Armstrong's own description, please see Understanding the Global Market Watch

The technology behind it is old. The service was available publicly at no charge between 2013-11-01 and 2016-01-20 daily, and at the time, he promised that he would make it available at no charge indefinitely. It is now part of Socrates, where the daily and weekly time frames are missing from the Investor version. So it is not free any more.

While MA notes that one should not trade based on the GMW, I offer the following logic: If it has any value whatsoever, then for a particular pattern, there must be, statistically, something specific about this pattern, such as differences in price movement in the future between specific patterns. Why then otherwise use a pattern?

I wanted to know. I downloaded all pages for each market sector each day (over 4,000 in total). Then I parsed these pages and loaded them into a database. I think the total is about 100,000 records. The beauty is that with the GMW pages, previous and current price is recorded with the pattern, so I had not only the patterns but also the current and future prices.

Armed with this database and a powerful programming language, I cleaned up the data from outliers and other rubbish such as companies gone bankrupt and ran queries and built reports. I think I even used a trading calendar and built simple trading strategies at some point.

I sliced and diced the data (I found 600 different pattern combinations, where I discriminated even by the trend colors) in all directions. The result was, that regardless of how I did it, none of the patterns had any specific outcome statistically. All noise. There was an exception though. For rare patters, that occurred only 2 to 5 times, there was a somewhat clear outcome. There is a simple explanation for that, which comes from the way that MA builds the patterns.

Roughly, what he needs to do is as follows:

He needs to split the historical data looking back for a limited time into discrete value chunks, after smoothing etc.. Then each chunk combination gets converted into a unique key for look-up of a pattern in his pattern database. It is a technology similar to "Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (SAX)". If a price movement after chunking is not found in the database, then the user will see the "New Pattern forming" message. After some time has passed, MA manually inspects the new patterns which now have some useful future price movements with them. Each new pattern is then labeled manually with a description such as "High close sharp drop coming" and uploaded into the database as he wrote here True AI and Fake Neural Net Forecasting Programs, and his AI computer which as he said "learns like a child" knows some new patterns from his observations.

The trick is as he uploads these patterns, they are still fresh and get used in the market which is still somewhat similar to a few days back, perhaps for other symbols, and they are self-fulfilling to some extent. After some time passes, the patterns are occurring more frequently, and this effect vanishes. There is likely to be another effect: Multiple patterns will have the the same description, and this will blur their effectiveness.

After all, this is again one-dimensional, manual, not the work of some AI computer. I am saying that the information is useless for me, because ANY future price movement is possible for any pattern with equal probability, and statistically that is what happens because I have measured it. The irony is that I am a pattern trader as classified by my broker. And in fact, I am trading based on patterns. But not based on GMW patterns, and not based on Reversals. Because while I would love to trade based on GMW patterns and Reversals, (otherwise why do all this research), as I wrote earlier, the stuff does not work and I have to develop my own methods.

So why do I think that patterns are still useful after all this experience? First I think that MA computer programming is of bad quality. I have seen too much of it in the form of bugs in his computer generated reports. Second, if I trade a defined pattern, that pattern is crisp and transparent. I know what the criteria of that pattern are. With a GMW pattern one knows only the description but not what it aims to match. With crisp defined patterns, I can apply them in a search of 40,000 market symbols. In comparison, Armstrong patterns are obscure and cannot be verified / trusted, an cannot be used to search. So I am saying that patterns are useful except Socrates patterns.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

There is another interesting one:

The GMW combined with Reversals. I was getting interested in How Can Socrates Forecast The Biogen Crash Today?.

I wrote a scan that matches the BIIB pattern at the time. Typical single dimension type of thing, but perfect match. Just a few days ago, that scan found Tableau Software NASDAQ:DATA. If it was in Socrates, it would have been flagged the same, including the Bearish Reversal. It really has the same pattern. The declining downtrend line, the sharpening wave, the high close. But Socrates does not know the difference between Biotechnology and Software Development. See what happened


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

What is this Socrates system then and where does it fit in your trading activities?

Reversals, Forecast Arrays, indicators such as resistance, support, moving averages, momentum, energy and signals such as "False reaction on this level", and the pattern recognition in the Global Market Watch are all the same thing. They are different representations or views of the same historical data in a SINGLE dimension.

This single dimension is only the price, the single time series of the price of the symbol that it looks at. On the other hand, without all this, YOU can see everything of it in a chart representing this time series, perhaps in multiple time frames. A single data series, a single dimension.

So when you are trying to use that system to identify a turning point, or derive any other critical trading decision, then you are asking that the combination of views as described above, views of a single dimension of the whole trading universe, will give you that answer. And Martin Armstrong is doing EVERYTHING he can possibly do to maintain that illusion in you so you get into a deep dependency on that single dimensional system, hoping that some magic in it will actually achieve your trading objectives.

The irony is that you need to pay extra money for every additional symbol you want to explore, still in a single dimension.

Now say if you don't have Socrates, you are spending more time exploring the universe around that symbol you are going to trade. You spend more time reading news, you spend more time learning about other markets to watch that may have an influence on the price development of your symbol. You are actually learning more about how to trade. You are moving far beyond what Socrates can see because it ever only looks at a single time series.

I recently thought that I would want to use Socrates to expand my horizon by using the capital flow heat map as a bird's eye view before drilling down. As I pointed out in a previous post, I found that it is broken because it has daily, weekly and monthly time frames mixed up. When I asked Socrates support, I was told that it isn't meant to be used for trading.

You as a trader, can handle 100 times more complexity than what this stupid system can do. It is basically 30 years behind.

Or, have you ever seen in any of its reports, that the current symbol behavior is described in relation to, say for simplicity, the $DXY US Dollar index or any other currency?

This system is so simple, that due to its simplicity, it can handle any number of symbols because it handles them all in isolation, in a single dimension.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Very simple. For daily I compared the next day close with the current day close. For weekly I compared the next week end close with the elected end of week close. For monthly I applied one month. If the 1% rule applied, and / or if there was a superposition event, then I assumed a trade in the opposite direction. This would normally give more favorable results. I know that this could be negated by Armstrong's instructions that I wrote about in my previous post, but there is no way to do this in a systematic fashion - it is chaos. I actually aborted weekly reversal trades, according to Armstrong rules - chaos. This effectively converts weekly reversals into daily reversals so to speak, defeating their purpose. Result? Sharply reduced profits / losses. It is more like not trading, losing opportunities. So I decided to stick with a simple reproducible scheme which is a kind of an average, the most objective way from my perspective. Otherwise it cannot be systematic. Last not least, new reversals are elected on a weekly cycle every week, so one has to keep in step with that. That is perhaps the strongest argument for trading them like that. Same for daily. New reversals are elected every day, often in opposite directions. So I cannot evaluate them for longer than their respective period. I have accumulated a very large number of reversals over the years, and I have to say that volume is really necessary for this evaluation. For example, there are weeks where the stock market rallies and Socrates elects bullish reversals. If it is lucky, then there are a number of good reversals this week because a large number of symbols that were available to me are correlated with the stock market, perhaps even Crude Oil, making this a good week. Then the next week it is the opposite, all bad. I found that the monthly reversals are just as terrible as the daily ones. The biggest problem is that with a number of symbols to choose from, Socrates will not tell you which one to trade. MA and his staff always cherry pick the successful recent ones after the fact and say: See, what an amazing system. Nobody talks about the other 50% - the bad signals and trades.

Socrates should provide historical dumps of past elected reversals so everybody can assess past performance like I did. Honestly, doing this is a full time job. Other financial services keep a record of good and bad trades, such as etfguide.com. Not doing this is dishonest. If other manual services can provide this, an automated system like Socrates can provide it with much less effort. There is really no excuse.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Interesting that on the same day of my post where I covered this relativity MA answers a user question Reversals & Timing which clearly shows that Weekly Reversals are not valid standalone, but subject to the human interpretation of both weekly and daily forecast arrays which may negate the Reversal to mean the opposite or limit the validity to one day only. This in addition to the 1% rule and the not so rare superposition event. This reduces the confidence with what they can be traded to zero. I am just considering what seems to be the consensus in this group that the forecast arrays are much too ambiguous to be considered reliable. Here it is set in stone that they are strictly part of the Reversal system.

Here is the critical question to answer:

This is a computer based system, right? Using AI and so forth? Bullshit.

Someone please tell me that a computer cannot figure out these conditions and come up with a clear answer that the poor user has to find by navigating this maze? Give me a break! This is disgusting. Only people who want to be deceived, want to be lied to will believe this. Either MA does not know how to write computer programs, or he knows it is not possible and keeps beating around the bush. I said it before. The more time you try learning this stuff, the more time you spend losing money. The result is the same that his system does not work.

In other words, the forecast arrays will mostly not agree with the Reversals. So when the Reversals are good and you trade them, then you ignore the forecast arrays, fine. If you however take them seriously, then you do not trade and lose an opportunity. On the other hand, if the Reversals are bad, then it is your fault if you ignored the forecast arrays. Pick your poison.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Some have commented regarding "back testing". I must admit that it is actually the bad term because his system cannot be back tested by us because the system as such is secret, not available for inspection by a 3rd party. The next best thing we have is to take all the predictions that are available and check them after the fact. Hundreds if not thousands. Build an open source database of his reversals. So far, I have not seen such analysis. So far, I have not seen anyone doing this. It is a full time job for years.

Why is it a full time job? Because not only is the system secret, but as others pointed out, it is not possible to obtain historical data. So one has to build historical data. Collect from Socrates every day and, depending on the subscription level, especially every Thursday and Friday the Weekly Reversals before and after election. Use some 25 or more symbols, otherwise this is a waste of time.

The data we get is in the form of textual reports at best. From these reports we have to extract the reversal values and the close values, because Socrates uses proprietary integer format not the actual market close value.

Then after a couple of years worth of full time work, we have a database of a few hundred or thousand reversals that we can check against the next period close. That is still not good enough because we need to also discount the 1% rule and the superposition events.

With all that, we will find that the reversals have a success rate of roughly 50%. Anything else is cherry-picking.

Now here comes another twist. Armstrong will say you can't do testing like that. He will say one has to use the daily timing array to optimize the closing of the trade before the end of the period. Can you see that this is all nuts? Whenever one tries to be systematic, there is a catch for evasion. So let's do that. If we close the trades not on the end of the trading period but before, then the success rate will NOT improve because the daily forecast arrays are noisier than anyhing else, and they are ambiguous in a way that there are often multiple turning points per week. So we are back at 50% at best, and that is where the system stands. Anything else is wishful thinking.

There is an opportunity for Martin Armstrong to build a system that is better than that. But he hasn't done it. Now I am giving you an example that illustrates this fact. Martin Armstrong disputes the Global Warming dogma as pseudo science which is a cheap thing to do. He is actually right. But he is misleading us when he says that his computer predicts his climate theory. His computer created a Weekly Bearish Reversal 4260 for Wheat Futures /ZW on Friday 2019-05-10 elected at 4246 clearly within the 1% rule. That was the major low. Future close 2019-05-17 was 4650 up 9.9%, total disaster. One can confidently say that Wheat is up since then in spite of a prior global glut, due to crop failure in the US from colder than normal weather conditions.

Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

Read this blog starting here to find out more about computerized fraud.


See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain

Hi,

I have been Socrates subscriber for many years since the service started, including the more recent Pro level. I have also kept record of thousands of Reversals on the Daily, Weekly and Monthly level. I have back tested them all. Even under consideration of the most sophisticated but complicating "Superposition Events" where Reversals are negated by signals that come out of the blue even as acknowledged by his staff, my back tests across all these signals reveal that the accuracy is 50% which is worthless. So they are effectively random signals, although they are based on logic as they are trend following signals that are positioned near support and resistance values. I have also back tested about 100 instances of another daily level signal "False Reaction" that catches a bounce on a daily level that appears to go too far back up from the previous temp high. It failed in roughly 50% of the cases.

When confronted with these issues, Armstrong staff has a simple strategy which is backed up by the overwhelming ambiguity of the system: They basically say that following the reversals is just not enough, one has to consider all the other factors and signals such as timing, energy (which is a mysterious signal). So there is no computerization in spite of Armstrong's AI claims.

So not only as others posted does one need to dig deep into the details to get information - more so the fact is if you do that then you just waste more time to find out the inevitable that such technical systems simply do not work regardless of their complexity. I can say that because I have followed their advice and then the system still fails.

Armstrong claims that he is the inventor of Capital Flow Analysis. For this analysis, the Socrates service has provided from day one a geographic heat map that shows current and projected capital flow daily, weekly and monthly, projected and previous. So one would expect that this prominent feature, which is on the member home page, is at least of some value. But unfortunately, every school kid with some JavaScript knowledge can check out that the logic behind it is bogus (has been for years). If you care, get a trial membership and check out the JavaScript links. The animation effect of changing capital flows between current and projected on the same daily level comes from the error that the script swaps between weekly and daily data where you think it is both on the daily level. It is a fraud, completely bogus. The complicatedness is overwhelming, and the server back-end script that writes these automated reports produces a lot of conflicting garbage.


Martin Armstrong is a charlatan, and he spent 11 years in jail for that reason but he has not changed.

See armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog.

Every single defrauded person should report their case, see Where and how to complain