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561  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 26, 2013, 04:31:13 PM
The fact that a simultaneous buying takes place in gox and selling in stamp is so hilarious.

Soon you will say that it is bullish that a large holder of goxbux wants out!  Cheesy

China: "yawn"

From my point of view China reversed Monday's correction with a few large buys at dawn.  I think they remain very relevant.  

As you observed we are well above the long term exponential trend.  The US and Europe were doing just fine supporting that trend for the last 4 years.  Second market and other bullish news do not imply that US and Europe are ready to break away from the trend -- although an exponential trend is so hard to maintain we must expect a break away eventually.

Now the world's second largest economy (and fastest growing) is suddenly having their first bitcoin bubble.  It is quite possible that this increased adoption has increased the "slope" of the long term exponential trend and will continue to do so for an extended period.

A look at the dynamics of the markets in the past 2 months clearly shows them providing support for each other, causing corrections to not be nearly as deep.
562  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is Anyone Buying Bitcoins? on: November 26, 2013, 02:52:24 AM
somebody must be buying.  No demand for BTC loans on bitfinex, lots of demand for USD.
563  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 23, 2013, 09:18:44 PM
weekend doldrums.  We've actually done really well for a weekend why all the shakiness?
564  Economy / Speculation / Re: Who else? on: November 23, 2013, 04:08:19 AM
here's the takeaway...your one decision to buy is financially equivalent to months or years of daily work.  apply that to the rest of your life.  find the fulcrum and then make the decision worth that amt at work and in the rest of your life.
565  Economy / Economics / Re: Ideas for more efficient distribution of money? on: November 23, 2013, 02:36:07 AM
I think in #1 I'm hearing you state that you think you have an algorithm that is CPU-only.  I think you are probably well aware of the principle of specialization so I am having a hard time imagining an algorithm that can be run on a CPU that cannot be specialized to an FPGA or ASIC -- or in the worst case, simply a custom circuit board with 32 physical 100-core tilera CPUs and the minimum required RAM and accessories.  Or a custom circuit-board with 1Tbyte of RAM and just one CPU if you are going that way.

Secondly:  You don't mention whether you want a better static (initial) distribution or a trying to create a permanent distribution curve... of course the second is much harder because the typical distribution tends to a exponential or a normal curve.  Which are you trying?

Third: I can think of two ways to create a system that results in an initial distribution that is more widely dispersed.  But honestly I don't feel like sharing b/c I think you suffer tremendously from "not-invented-here" syndrome and also as many others have stated are managing to alienate most people you interact with on this forum. 


tl;dr; I'd recommend that you post your algorithm and let us tear it to shreds to save yourself a lot of work.  Although, the last person I helped offered a 10BTC bounty, something you might consider -- but smaller due to BTC price appreciation.

tl;dr#2; First, see yourself.

Best!  Wink

566  Economy / Economics / Re: I am stopping 401k investing for 6 months, buying BTC on: November 23, 2013, 12:30:07 AM
don't retire and remove your obvious capabilities from an economy that needs you.  use btc to get that llc and ins sell your nic 4 50% china price not 30% and remove one more import (and dont forget to take long vacations!)
567  Economy / Speculation / Re: Richard Branson + Virgin Galactic Endorses Bitcoin on: November 22, 2013, 06:59:44 PM
O M F G

You are all missing the REAL news here...

From the blog:
"One future astronaut, a female flight attendant from Hawaii, has already purchased her Virgin Galactic ticket using bitcoins"

Smoothie is a woman!!!  Grin



Come on how many early adopters from HI can there be?  Biggest troll on bitcointalk is a female flight attendant...  honestly it makes a strange kind of sense.

568  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 21, 2013, 06:16:23 PM

did you just turn bull again?

now this is for sure a bull trap.

If you take anything from his ramblings, I feel bad for you son.

I have 99 problems but the mental insanity that apparently if inflicted upon rpietila's brain ain't 1.

He may be crazy (i.e. not adhering to normal societal norms) but that does not mean he is not right!  In fact, I think rpietila should buy out the asks on a tiny exchange and then sell himself a tiny fraction to make it spike!  Epic counter-troll to the forum trolls :-)

But ignoring the specific value of 300 per mBTC, there is a feeling which he seems to have gotten correct (and other uberbulls, of course).  And that is that Bitcoin IS in a singularity period.  What I mean by that is nothing you do post Dec 31 will have much of an effect (on your portfolio) as the decisions you made pre Jan 1.




569  Economy / Economics / Re: rpietila public diary -- Episode II on: November 21, 2013, 06:01:29 PM
You asked for feedback on the dealer network.  In a nutshell, the dealer network is trust-based network of large buyers and sellers, with the trust secured by an escrowed deposit.  Bitcoin is a trustless transfer system.  So I see that the dealer network is to some degree a throwback to a previous era.

However, that observation does not mean that it is not useful.  In fact, Bitcoin only allows trust-free TRANSFER, not EXCHANGE.  And to date all geographically disparate mechanisms of exchange require trust (i.e. the centralized exchange websites).

So from that perspective the dealer network is on par with what we've got.

However, a big difference is that it allows its members to acquire BTC rapidly.  The trust involved allows a member to draw BTC right away, but settle later. 
This has 2 advantages.
1. Timeliness -- do not have to wait for the fiat transfer to arrive and be validated.
2. Volume -- This would allow a member to supply BTC to a buyer whose purchase amount is significantly larger than the outlay of the member himself, by drawing the BTC (perhaps into a personal escrow) and then setting up the wire transfers direct from the buyer to the seller.
 
I think the problem with the dealer network is who is willing to sell?  To avoid fiat transfer slippage during bull markets, members would have to have fiat on exchanges.  But the risk profile of this fiat-on-the-exchange is not dissimilar to BTC on the exchange and may even be worse than BTC in a paper wallet due to counterparty risk.

So the network may have liquidity issues.  However, if the network includes payment processors and other entities that tend to have surplus BTC (perhaps via a selling-only account) you may solve this problem.  But what is the incentive for payment processors to want to be included?  Perhaps lack of slippage or a better exchange rate?



570  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 21, 2013, 04:57:56 PM
Nice contrast:



Well, at least copper's up  Wink

yeah, i noticed that too.

maybe zerg ought to redesign the silverbox update to a similar format?

hmm, I have been writing each report out to a file so I do have some longitudinal data... maybe over the weekend.
571  Economy / Speculation / Re: Stop relying on China to make your profits on: November 21, 2013, 04:13:10 AM
You have moved your bitcoin from the exchange into your own wallet I am sure.  So if the govt outlaws bitcoin, you surely deleted the wallet it like a good citizen.  Then after 6 months or 5 years you travel to HK or somewhere, anywhere.  And jackpot!!!  With this in mind, perhaps the fear of it being outlawed in the future would not have such a large effect.
572  Other / Off-topic / Re: Speculative board behavior - men are they all tossers or just some of them? on: November 21, 2013, 12:41:47 AM
cant say i appreciate this being moved to OT.  its like kick em while they are down.  and the wall observer has been getting rude lately I don't appreciate nsfw images showing up when I try to learn the latest bitcoin news.  this criticism is valid.  mods do your job.
573  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 20, 2013, 09:06:48 PM
New ad campaign:
Buy Gold and Silver -- because you can't Scrooge McDuck Bitcoin!!!   Grin



http://gizmodo.com/5904097/how-much-money-do-you-need-to-do-scrooge-mcducks-money-swim

RE: diamond are dangerous.  Its just carbon -- soon lab grown stones will be indistinguishable by carefully making them LESS perfect than is achievable.
574  Economy / Speculation / Re: On to the next bubble? on: November 20, 2013, 04:36:52 PM
zoom out to 6 months+.  This situation has certainly not popped.  In china we never even got below the trendline that started Nov 1 (3500 or so).  We are nowhere near the oct 15 trendline (1750).  Both of these are above the baseline bull market that started in July.
575  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: November 20, 2013, 12:21:55 AM
Quote
I think many people on here coming from a libertarian (I'm in that category) or full-out anarchy philosophy tend to view government as one giant beast, whose actions are coordinated and deliberate. I think the reality is that gov is a loose collection of individuals, most of whom just want to do their jobs, maybe get some praise every now and then, and take home a paycheck. Regulators want to meet their mandates, law enforcement wants to catch people who break the law, the Fed wants to meet their inflation and employment targets, and politicians want to get re-elected. The notion that there's a coordinated well-thought-out deliberate conspiracy across agencies, involving calculated strategic deception, to twart bitcoin as a threat to a devious fiat banking regime is....naive. Government is not coordinated. The individuals that comprise it are generally not that visionary. Agencies are composed of a wide array of individuals with all manner of their own ideologies.

I've raised this exact point myself. I call it the collectivist fallacy, and it's one most libertarians fall into. Once this misconception is cleared away it becomes apparent that Bitcoin won't necessarily encounter much resistance from petty bureaucrats as it doesn't directly affect them, or at least it won't seem to them that it will be able to affect them by the time they leave office.

Nevertheless, there are powerful people who do see sound money as a direct threat, and they would see Bitcoin as a threat if only they understood it AND believed there was a decent chance it could take over. The ECB report and others suggest at least some of them see the threat. But do they understand how clear and present it is? Maybe they are too slow to care, but if they did understand they only have two options that I can see: 1) Attempt to suppress it, or 2) Buy in massively.

In fact re the USA Law Enforcement its well documented that agencies would not work together (they essentially compete for the big bust, that gets your agency the funding) and that individual agents would not share their case files with others for the same reason (big busts -> promotion).  This is one reason they had to be dragged kicking and screaming into the digital age.

576  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 19, 2013, 10:16:27 PM
last question answer should have been that dollars can't magically refuse to change hands -- and forcing this to occur at the monetary level creates tons of issues for legit users as you can see (for example) by all the "paypal sux" stories.  So best thing is to manage it at the business level
577  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 19, 2013, 02:40:26 PM
sorry about the OT (LOL) but what are the popular few Chinese language forums? (accessible from mainland China)
578  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2013, 09:37:17 PM
"hear frustration"?  LOL, it is a prepared statement.  I didn't hear a single word of frustration from LE.
579  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2013, 09:30:01 PM
I don't watch many senate hearings but I when I do I expect to be vastly richer afterwards.

 Grin LOL, I know everyone says that I think a lot more than they actually laugh out loud.  But for this one I really did!
580  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 18, 2013, 08:57:54 PM
These people seem to be addressing the situation honestly and in the larger context of advancing technology.  American govt may have issues but also is clearly one of the best of the bunch.  Love the ref to how USA is proud of advancing tech and knows it has a significant impact on economy.  Contrast this to Thailand.

Hope someone points out that a lot of credit card fraud (by stealing # held in databases, etc) would disappear with bitcoin.
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