I am pretty relaxed so long as $8k holds.  If we start dipping into $7k in a meaningful way then the prognosis starts to look a bit worse.

So a lost some BTC on the continued slide of ETH/BTC and made it back on ADA/BTC.  Not sure whether to be pleased or disappointed in myself. Probably the latter for dabbling in shitcoins at all.

We just lost Stephen Hawking and we are all poorer for it.

Gay frog guy and Roger Ver make for a dynamic duo.  

I definitely missed Happy hour.  

Still pondering if last weekend was a capitulation moment. Or maybe an elephas primigenius moment. I dunno.

Did I miss something?   Price is sitting calmly in low 9s. 

Nice to see Trump fires Tillerson a day later for saying the Russians were responsible for the UK nerve gas attack.  Putin must be feeling a bit touchy about the whole thing.

And here I was thinking Tillerson was a Putin loyalist.  

They are screwed.

Its published in “Molecular Psychiatry”.  The name of that publication gives you an indication of the editors’ inherent biases.  

I skimmed the paper. I am not a statistician but their methodology looks riddled with correlation errors.  Looks more like phrenology to me.

There’s FUD around Kucoin running a fractional reserve.   Consider pulling your coins off.

Sure I have a similar base case line which runs all the way back to $2.11 or something like that.  My version runs along the bottom of the crypto winter and crosses today somewhere around $2k.  It looks much like the bottom of your pitchfork. 

If we hit $7k in the next few days we can call my line invalid and ill conceived.  If $8k holds, then maybe further reflection is warranted.

There is still activity out there.  I went into an ICO which listed 2 weeks ago and is still trading at double its issue price.  So it doesn’t feel apocalyptic today.  

You make it sound like macro trends are dependent on micro connections.  

It is a generally held belief that the spike down to $6k was caused by our Tokyo whale and that he will not sell again until September.  If this is correct then the $6k drop can be disregarded as an extraordinary event.

I appreciate that suggesting we may be going through a consolidation phase cuts across your belief that we are in a 2014 replay.  For myself, I am not so sure about that.  Roach is merely talking his book.  

Please keep in mind that I am not betting the house on this chart.  I am fully hedged against a sub $3k drop. But it’s useful to consider what a March recovery should look like as it is an entirely plausible outcome.  In this regard, I don’t particularly mind that the candles don’t match up nicely.   Looking at the forest rather than the trees if that metaphor suits you better.

There was a nice pic of a cabin a few pages back.  Grats on whoever is building that.

Fabulous.  Keep them coming. How is your French?

Any pictures you are able to share would be welcome. Even if it’s only baguettes and palm trees.  

What is the basic design?  Has anything like this ever been built before?

I was thinking in the specific sense of having to pay a fee in Bitcoin. Possibly as a substitute for POW.  I have not given it any real thought and it’s possibly full of holes, such as Sybil attacks.

I can’t think of anywhere you are more likely to die in a random hail of gunfire or be eaten by cannibals than being surrounded by 6,000 preppers.  

Take a yacht with food and medical supplies out into the Pacific. A monohull so you can take a knock down in a storm and pop straight back up again.

Nice article in UK Financial Times about how central bank backed crypto currencies are a systemic risk as retail clients would flee the private banking system in event of a financial crisis to central bank crypto. Saying it would be particularly dangerous if only some central banks offered cryptocurenxy as this could trigger cross border flows.

And they have the nerve to call us a Ponzi. 

Link (paywall): https://www.ft.com/content/d407ee66-260a-11e8-b27e-cc62a39d57a0

Indeed.  Now I need to go away and think about what that might mean in crypto.  What if miners had to pay a fee to mine but that was their entry ticket to a prize pool?  What does that mean in game theory terms?